His arm is dead LOL 
Making $27 million this season
Making $27 million this season
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Congrats to Atlanta, makes it very easy on which team to root for in the WS.Comment -
One of the biggest decisions for the Cardinals this winter is how to handle the shortstop position. That hasn’t been the case in a while. Paul DeJong had a great rookie season in 2017, and he’s been the Cards’ Opening Day shortstop for each of the four seasons since.
Going into 2022, it no longer seems to be DeJong’s job. That rookie season was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play that DeJong never seemed likely to sustain, but he was a solid hitter over the next couple years. Coupled with high-end defensive metrics, he was still a highly valuable player. DeJong’s bat has taken another step down over the last two years, though, and that seemingly puts his future with the organization in question.
Since the start of 2020, DeJong has tallied 576 plate appearances, nearly the equivalent of a typical season. He’s hit just .213/.295/.378, a mark that makes him fourteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong still brings some power upside, popping 22 home runs with a .165 ISO (slugging minus batting average) that’s right around average. He has struck out in an elevated 26.6% of his trips to the plate, though. Paired with a very low .254 BABIP, that has led DeJong to post one of the lower batting averages and on-base marks among regular players.
DeJong is still generally effective at barreling balls up, but he’s also had far too many wasted plate appearances. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter, which can be a bit of a double-edged sword. Hitting the ball in the air gives a player plenty of opportunities to do damage, but weakly hit fly balls aren’t especially useful. DeJong has had his share of softly hit balls in the air, with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity on air balls that ranks in the 42nd percentile leaguewide (minimum 1000 pitches seen). That middle-of-the-road batted ball quality has come as DeJong’s contact rate has dropped a few percentage points over the past two seasons, falling from roughly league average to a bit below.
While DeJong hasn’t been an especially productive hitter in recent seasons, he hasn’t been without value. Defensive metrics have still pegged him as a solid or better defender. Over the past two seasons, DeJong has rated as six runs above average at shortstop by DRS, while Statcast has him at two plays above average. Even average play at shortstop is valuable, and DeJong’s probably at least a tick above par defensively.
Because of that defensive acumen, DeJong has been valued at around two wins above replacement since the start of 2020 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s roughly league average for the amount he has played. So even with his bat going backwards, DeJong’s still a capable player who is just two years removed from an All-Star berth. He’d be an upgrade over some teams’ current shortstop situations.
Speculatively speaking, the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Angels, Rangers, A’s, Astros, Tigers and Twins are among the teams who might be in the shortstop market this winter. With a star-studded crop of free agent shortstops, DeJong won’t be priority number one for any of those clubs. They can’t all land high-end free agent options, though, and some could view DeJong as a reasonable fallback option.
In March 2018, DeJong and the Cardinals agreed on a contract extension, the guaranteed portion of which runs through 2023. He’ll make $6MM next season and $9MM the following year, and he’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $12.5MM. The contract also contains another club option covering 2025. Given DeJong’s offensive struggles the past couple seasons, that deal no longer looks like a massive bargain. But it’s certainly not an outlandish detriment to a team’s finances either, and the two options give a potential acquiring team some upside if DeJong manages to turn things around at the dish.
That all leads to an interesting offseason decision for the St. Louis front office. DeJong’s 2022 salary isn’t outlandish, but they might want to look into the top shortstops available themselves. Alternatively, they could trade DeJong and rely on the player who became the de facto shortstop down the stretch this past season: Edmundo Sosa.
Sosa has long been viewed by public prospect evaluators as a future glove-first utilityman. He outperformed those expectations as a rookie, though, hitting .271/.346/.389 with six homers in 326 plate appearances. Sosa didn’t walk or hit for much power, but his aggressive approach helped keep his strikeouts low as well.
Turning shortstop over to Sosa based on half a season’s worth of work would be a risk, but he did enough down the stretch to seemingly surpass DeJong on the organizational depth chart. It’d be defensible to give Sosa a chance to seize the job, particularly given this regime’s solid track record in developing position players who overperform their general prospect expectations.
How to handle the shortstop position going into 2022 is a key question for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office. That’s unfamiliar territory in St. Louis, but DeJong’s recent drop-off at the dish makes it possible he could wind up on the move in the coming months.Comment -
See ya Dodgers, better spend some more money.Comment -
I think Houston beats Atlanta.Comment -
anyone for WS MVP props?Comment -
I’ll be rooting for Frederick Freeman.Comment -
Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since Game 4 of the ALDS, and it looks like his forearm injury will end his season. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that McCullers won’t be available for the World Series, so Houston will now have to try and win its second consecutive postseason matchup without one of its best hurlers.
Astros GM James Click didn’t rule McCullers out when speaking to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) earlier today, noting that roster decisions didn’t need to made until Tuesday morning, “and we’re going to take every minute we can just to see how he’s responding. We’re not taking anything off the table….It’s obviously something that I know Lance wants to be out there if he can, so we will talk to the doctors and him and the trainers and figure it out from there.”
However, as open-minded as Click was about McCullers’ chances, Heyman’s report essentially formalizes what has seemed increasingly evident over the last few days. McCullers has yet to so much as throw since suffering his injury, a strain of his flexor pronator muscle. While the muscle injury itself doesn’t present any serious long-term issue, McCullers has already undergone Tommy John surgery (costing him the entire 2019 season), and obviously the Astros aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with his health.
That TJ rehab cost McCullers a chance to participate in the 2019 World Series, and it’s quite possible that with a healthy McCullers in the fold, Houston would’ve been able to bring home another championship. The righty has quietly been a very solid arm during the Astros’ postseason runs, with a 2.83 ERA over 57 1/3 innings as a starter and a reliever in the playoffs. This year alone, McCullers allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 frames against the White Sox in the ALDS, starting Games 1 and 4.
Framber Valdez was announced as Houston’s starter for Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Braves. As we saw in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the Astros will take a flexible approach to their pitching plans, so no other starters have been officially slated for the other World Series games. On paper, it would seem like the Astros would line up Luis Garcia in Game 2, Jose Urquidy in Game 3, and then Zack Greinke for perhaps only a few innings to begin Game 4, with Cristian Javier and Jake Odorizzi on hand to provide innings as long men out of the bullpen.Comment -
This offseason should be interesting for the Dodgers. Lots of them are free agents. Gonna be expensive to keep them allComment -
Any props you guys are betting for the world series??Comment -
The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents. It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more. We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins
These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.
All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees
These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.Comment -
What were Braves pre season odds for the WSComment -
I think most of America is rooting for the Braves against the cheaters.Comment -
Go Braves!Comment -
Ouch, Morton out for the rest of the series.Comment -
Braves so impressive in underdog role this postseason.Comment -
Braves starter Charlie Morton fractured his right fibula during tonight’s game against the Astros, the club announced. He’ll obviously miss the remainder of the World Series, but the team announced that he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Morton got the start in tonight’s World Series opener. He was struck in the leg by a Yuli Gurriel comebacker that turned into a groundout to lead off the second inning. That ball evidently broke Morton’s leg, but he incredibly remained in the game to strike out Chas McCormick and induce a MartÃn Maldonado line out. Morton even returned to the mound to start the bottom of the third, punching out José Altuve before swelling in the area made it impossible for him to continue.
The Braves will have to rely on their bullpen to finish off what they hope to be a series-opening victory. A.J. Minter has worked a couple innings in relief of Morton, with Atlanta holding onto a 5-1 lead midway through tonight’s game.
Atlanta will obviously have to navigate the rest of the series without their top starter. Max Fried is already lined up to start tomorrow’s Game 2, with Ian Anderson the most likely candidate to take the ball in Game 3. The Braves added Kyle Wright to their World Series roster, and he’s capable of working multiple innings after starting for the entire season. Wright has worked almost exclusively in Triple-A this year, though, so he’s not an ideal option to start a World Series game. The Braves will also be able to add another arm to the roster as an injury replacement, but they were already reaching into their depth after fourth starter Huascar Ynoa suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last week.
It’s a relief that the Braves’ immediate announcement noted that Morton is expected to ready for the start of next season. Still, it’s a disappointing conclusion to another strong campaign for the well-respected hurler. Morton will be back in Atlanta in 2022, having signed a $20MM extension last month.Comment -
Yeah that really hurts the Braves I like their pitching but once the series reaches game 4 and 5 they got some serious questions. Of course their bullpen has been lights out this postseason but it remains to be seen if they'll be overworked the further this series goes along.Comment -
Astros need to win tonight or it's likely overComment -
Astros can still comeback being down 2 gamesComment -
Looking good for the Astros is game 2.Comment -
Braves are toast, pitching going to wear down.Comment -
The Marlins are keeping their shortstop around for an extra season, agreeing to an extension with Miguel Rojasthat’ll keep him under contract through 2023. Rojas, who had already locked in a $5.5MM salary for the 2022 season when he triggered a vesting option in September, is reportedly signing a two-year, $10MM deal.
It effectively amounts to the Marlins tacking on an additional year and $4.5MM for what will be Rojas’ age-34 season. The deal does not contain any option years. Rojas, who is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, recently indicated in an appearance on Chris Rose’s podcast that an extension was in the works. He has previously voiced a desire to spend his entire career with the Marlins, and the front office has similarly expressed interest in keeping the clubhouse leader in Miami.
The 32-year-old Rojas saw his bat come back down closer to his career levels after a monster showing at the dish during the 2020 season. Typically a bit below-average with the bat but exceptional with the glove, Rojas erupted with a .304/.392/.496 showing last summer — albeit in a sample of just 143 plate appearances. That said, this year’s .265/.322/.392 showing in 539 trips to the plate was still a solid mark (97 wRC+), and if you take the last three seasons in the aggregate, Rojas has effectively been a league-average hitter.
League-average offense for a player of Rojas’ defensive aptitude is hardly anything to scoff at. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Rojas at plus-4 for the 2021 season and as a plus-20 defender in 4445 career innings at the position, while Rojas notched a 4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2021 and carries a lifetime 28.5 mark in that regard. Statcast’s Outs Above Average is less bullish on his glovework but pegs him as at least an average defender over the past several seasons. Rojas also has ample experience at second base and third base in his career, so he could eventually slide into a utility role — although all current indications are that he’ll reprise his role as starting shortstop in 2022.
A Rojas extension gets some offseason business out of the way early for the Marlins and locks in a bargain source of cost certainty for the 2023 campaign. That’s likely quite notable for the Fish, who are angling to spend some money in free agency this winter but will surely be operating with some degree of financial constraints. CEO Derek Jeter has voiced an expectation that the Marlins will be “pretty active” for the first time under this ownership group.
Time will tell how that vague description from Jeter is defined relative to other “active” teams in free agency. The Marlins are expected to seek long-term options at catcher and in center field, and they could certainly be in the mix for a corner outfielder to pair with promising young Jesus Sanchez. At the moment, Rojas and right-hander Anthony Bass ($3MM) are the only players on guaranteed contracts in 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an arbitration class in the vicinity of $34.5MM, and Miami will still owe $3MM to the Yankees under the terms of the Giancarlo Stanton trade.
With a projected payroll in the $55-56MM range, there does appear to be room to add — the question is just how high the Jeter/Bruce Sherman ownership group is willing to push payroll. Presumably, they’ll look for a gradual year-over-year increase rather than soaring to their max budget right out of the gates. However they proceed, they can now do so with the certainty that their ostensible team captain is under control for an extra season.
Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the Marlins and Rojas were in agreement on an extension. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported it was a two-year, $10MM deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that the contract did not contain any options.Comment
