2012 NCAAF Plays

Sunde91 · 07-26-12, 02:34 PM

Some Vegas playsthat are worth putting more on if possible getting back there

Washington +4.5 -110 vs. Stanford 9/27/12 (LVH)
6.6x to win 6

Only LVH has this lineStanford is way overrated and Wash is underrated no way around it. Stan falls hard this year. Teams don't lose a QB like Luck and simply go on business as usual. Texas after Young sucked until McCoy got going, then sucked after McCoy. Florida after Tebow. Auburn after Newton. OSU after Pryor. On and on. Teams take a big step back. Stanford retains major respect from the Luck/Harbaugh era but that is all over. It's not like they return everyone. They only get back 6 starters on O and 7 on D. Brett Nottingham, RS Soph, will probably be QB

Wash will be a force this year. 7 on O, 7 D. Keith Price is back after a great year, clearly the 2nd best QB in the P12. 4/5 OL back. Their O will shred that D. Stan has no chance of keeping up. Stan will stick with their predictable "power football", all they can do with a shaky QB.

This will be their first road game of the year, a night game in Seattle with a first time starting QB first time playing outside Stan. The week before this game, they play vs USC. They will be exposed in a DD loss at home, no more respect, everyone will be all over Wash at home, definitely will be a fav by that point. The wheels will come off and they'll get blown out @Wash. This line is an absolute joke. Wash should be -7.5 minimum and there is no chance this will stay at 4.5.

Wash Over 6.5 Wins -110 (Bellagio/MGM operated books)
4.4x to win 4

Already had +4.5 and saw this and couldn't believe it cause I saw nothing about it anywhere else. Every other book has Stanford at 7.5 or 7.

5DO7.5 +145, Greek O7.5 +155, BOL O 7.5 +135, Golden Nugget O 7.5 +130, Cantor O 7.5 +180, Caesars O7.5 +115. Getting a full extra win @-110 is insane. To get 6.5 you have to pay -230 at 5Dimes. Value is self-evident.

3 tough games @LSU, @Ore, USC. Say they lose all 3 that's fine. Now find 3 more. SDSU, Portland State, Stan, @Zona, OSU, @Cal, Utah, @Colo, @WSU. Not happening. A loss or 2 @Cal, maybe @WSU.

Nebraska +1 -110 vs. Michigan 10/27/12 (Golden Nugget)
5.5x to win 5

5D -2.5, LVH -1.5

Those lines are playable but +1 takes it. Talked about Nebraska already, some other factors.

Home Night game in Lincoln getting points is just hilarious. Michigain is not that good of a team, inflated opinion. Tell me the perception of them right now w/o miralce wins vs. VT and ND where they got dominated but won. 9-4 team no one gives a fuk. Instead 11 wins with a BCS bowl win and now elite status favored to win Big 10

Michigan has an outside chance of having 3 losses by the time this game is played (Bama, @ND, MSU). They probably lose to Bama and @ND, both primetime night games where everyone will see them go down and their perception tanks. OTH, Nebraska will be 6-1 or 7-0 and will finally get some respect. This means the line could be dramatically different come game day, like Neb -7

Vegas gets lines that wrong all the time. Neb will be this year's Wisconsin. LY Wisc preseason was -2.5 vs. Neb and -6 vs. PSU. Lines closed -9.5 and -17. Won by 31 and 38. And just as Wisc was underrated, Neb was overrated LY. Mich is overrated in a similar way. No chance they deserve to be favored in Lincoln at night. Could see -7 minium come game.

Sunde91 · 08-03-12, 06:52 PM

Iowa -6.5 -110 vs NIU 9/1/12 (Soldier Field)
3.3x to win 3

-6.5 everywhere. Should really be -10 to -14 at least. Couple sources projected this -10 and -13.5. This same matchup in CHI was played in 07 and Iowa was -12 won by 13. 75%+ of the stadium will be Iowa fans like last time.

-NIU returns just 3 on O. Entire starting OL gone. MAC legend QB Harnish gone. 8 RS for a D that was 88th total and 89th Passing LY. They reached the summit winning the MAC LY now the plummet with an inexperienced team.
-Iowa RS 6 O/5 D. Vandenberg is back off a 3000 yard 25 TD season, best passer in the B10 coming in. Iowa will score plenty and won't give up much on D.

Sunde91 · 08-23-12, 04:38 PM

South Carolina +2 -110 vs Arkansas 11/10/12
5.5x to win 5

LVH/Sportsbook.com only others with it at PK

Line makes no sense. Ark is -3.5@ TAM. SC is only 1.5 pts better than TAM? Georgia is also -2 @SC. Georgia is on par with Ark? 2 years ago Ark was +4 @SC. LY Ark was -5 vs SC. Pretend everything is the same as ly and SC would be between -3 and -1 at home. Getting +2 is value if all were the same, but it’s nowhere near it.

1) Lattimore was injured ly and he’s back now as a top 2 RB in the country.

2) Ark is no longer stable. New HC with John L. Smith who is the biggest clown coach in recent history. Tyler Wilson thrived under ly’s OC. Now he’s under a new one Paul Petrino and 3 of his top WRs are gone.

3) This is SC’s last SEC game and they are coming off a bye. This is big and could decide the SEC East for them, possible night game.

4) Ark is terribly overrated still riding ly’s misleading success. Outside @Bama/LSU, it was cake for them. 2 other road games @Vandy/Miss. Everything else at home, nothing difficult. They were 0-4 ATS on the road.

Ark has 15 returning starters, SC 14. Ark has killed SC last 3 years and SC will get them back here. SC should easily be -6.

accuscoresucks · 08-23-12, 05:02 PM

keep up the good work.
time and effort pays dividens

paranoyd androyd · 08-23-12, 08:31 PM

gl sunde, will be checking in here often

GunShard · 08-23-12, 11:35 PM

Nice picks.

Sunde91 · 08-25-12, 02:36 PM

accu, androyd, shard

Tennessee TT O 28 -110
2.2x to win 2

53 game total seems a little low and should get bet up, pushing Tenn TT up. Bray is maybe the 2nd best passer in the SEC and should do well against a NCST pass D that was 61st last year. Both teams should be airing it out resulting in more time and possessions. No Rogers doesn't help, 28 is still worth playing.

CharlestonCock · 08-25-12, 02:49 PM

Love the picks! I hate Arkansas!

Sunde91 · 08-27-12, 04:50 PM

Season wins Parlay +616
ASU U 5.5 -230, Ark State U 8.5 -270, Boise U 10.5 -460, Iowa O 6.5 -350, Miami U 7.5 -350, Tenn O 6.5 -280, WVU U 9.5 -300
1x to win 6.16

Alt win lines getting an extra win/half with chalk. Either got beat too bad on standard line or it's not good enough to play. It's a fun bet, but has a serious chance to hit. Will be fading or backing these teams throughout the year.

-ASU will be bottom 2 team in P12, bring back 4 O/4 D. They've got nothing and Graham struggles huge in 1st year.
-Ark St 2 guaranteed losses @Ore, @Neb. They'd have to to win 5 of 6 out @Troy, @ULL, @FIU, @NT, WKU, ULM. No chance.
-Boise fewest returning starters in FBS. The run is over. Loss @MSU. Loseable games BYU, @SM, Fresno, @Wyo, SDSU, @Haw, @Nev
-Iowa is looking at 5-0 to start then need to win 2 of 4 @IU, PSU, Purdue, @NW. Could lose all tough games @UM, @MSU, Neb, wouldn't be a problem.
-Miami has 1 win, 6 tossups, 5 likely losses. 7 wins is the maximum they will get. @KSU, @GT, FSU, VT, ND 5 losses right there not even looking at the tossups.
-Tenn brings back 20 starters, 2nd in FBS. 6 wins is rock bottom and would be a disgrace, could go as high as 9. Only 3 real difficult games, the rest easily winnable.
-WVU offseason hype is manufactured wholly on their Orange Bowl win. Never mind they went 9-3 before that and nearly lost to USF, Pitt, and Cincy. 7 real loseable games @UT, @TT, @OSU, @ISU, TCU, KSU, OK. Not winning 5 of those.

nvrlose37 · 08-27-12, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

Season wins Parlay +616
ASU U 5.5 -230, Ark State U 8.5 -270, Boise U 10.5 -460, Iowa O 6.5 -350, Miami U 7.5 -350, Tenn O 6.5 -280, WVU U 9.5 -300
1x to win 6.16

Alt win lines getting an extra win/half with chalk. Either got beat too bad on standard line or it's not good enough to play. It's a fun bet, but has a serious chance to hit. Will be fading or backing these teams throughout the year.

-ASU will be bottom 2 team in P12, bring back 4 O/4 D. They've got nothing and Graham struggles huge in 1st year.
-Ark St 2 guaranteed losses @Ore, @Neb. They'd have to to win 5 of 6 out @Troy, @ULL, @FIU, @NT, WKU, ULM. No chance.
-Boise fewest returning starters in FBS. The run is over. Loss @MSU. Loseable games BYU, @SM, Fresno, @Wyo, SDSU, @Haw, @Nev
-Iowa is looking at 5-0 to start then need to win 2 of 4 @IU, PSU, Purdue, @NW. Could lose all tough games @UM, @MSU, Neb, wouldn't be a problem.
-Miami has 1 win, 6 tossups, 5 likely losses. 7 wins is the maximum they will get. @KSU, @GT, FSU, VT, ND 5 losses right there not even looking at the tossups.
-Tenn brings back 20 starters, 2nd in FBS. 6 wins is rock bottom and would be a disgrace, could go as high as 9. Only 3 real difficult games, the rest easily winnable.
-WVU offseason hype is manufactured wholly on their Orange Bowl win. Never mind they went 9-3 before that and nearly lost to USF, Pitt, and Cincy. 7 real loseable games @UT, @TT, @OSU, @ISU, TCU, KSU, OK. Not winning 5 of those.

I have to disagree on the Ark St. Sure they will lose the obvious two but what makes you think their team is any worse from the team that swept the Sun Belt last year?

Sunde91 · 08-27-12, 05:40 PM

New HC, Malzahn isn't going to have some amazing 1st year ever at HC just because he was a good OC. Only 3 back on D. They are not chugging right along at 9/10 wins like it's routine. They won 4 games the 2 years before that.

@FIU and @ULL they will be dogs of 3-7 pts. @Troy, @NT, WKU, ULM are more or less toss ups. At least 2 losses out of 6 is pretty certain.

tobydicesare · 08-27-12, 05:48 PM

Why someone would bet conference odds, divisional odds, and have to wait the entire season for the payoff is the same reason I bet Heavy ML's....I think its worth the risk.

Sunde91 · 08-30-12, 06:44 PM

SC/Vandy Next Score a TD -170 Live after 1Q
1.7x to win 1

Hmm pretty bad line here at the 30 yard line 1st and 10 with all the momentum

Sunde91 · 08-30-12, 07:54 PM

Vandy 2H +3.5 +100
2x

This is a pretty fair line even with Shaw healthy and Vandy would be the lean. It sounds like he isn't. Vandy to be tied is huge after the rough start.

Sunde91 · 08-31-12, 04:19 PM

MSU -6.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

MSU -9 +116
1x to win 1.16

Bad mistake not playing more before, maybe get lucky to go bigger live

1) Boise returns the fewest returning starters in FBS (3 O, 2, D, Kicker), the fewest of any team as far back as could be found to 2008
2) MSU has a top 15 team with a top 5 Defense with 8 returning
3) Boise travels 2000 miles for their first game on a Friday Night
4) Last time Boise opened the season in a true road game they lost 48-13 @UGA (+7.5) in 05
5) Boise has one true road win ever vs a BCS team and it was a fluke. @Oregon 37-32 2008 Ore's QB Masoli was knocked out in the 1st Q, outscored 24-0 in the 2nd Q right after he left, then played with 2 true freshman QBs, had 4 TOs as a team
6) The only other true road game vs a BCS team under Peterson was in 07 @Wash (-2.5) lost 24-10
7) Boise was still splitting 1st team QB reps 2 Saturdays ago, not a bode of confidence for Southwick http://mwcfootballanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/08/19/boise-state-has-a-serious-quarterback-problem/
8) MSU brings back 3 starting OL and and a solid RB Bell to help out new QB Maxwell, who should be fine
9) This game turns into a blowout if MSU forces a few TOs and Maxwell plays decent

No coincidences · 08-31-12, 05:00 PM

Good luck Sunde. Love MSU. They have five guys on defense (Gholston, Lewis, Adams, Allen, Bullough) who could make NFL rosters right now. Just a little worried about Maxwell and their lack of reliable receivers.

Sunde91 · 09-01-12, 12:09 AM

Nebraska -20 -102
3.06x to win 3

So Miss is gutted from last year's Champ team. New coach, 6 return on O (new QB), 5 on D. Neb will be one of the most improved teams in the country and they're really anxious after underachieving ly to come out and hammer a team. Martinez will be streaking up and down the field until he gets pulled. Neb's D sets the tone for the year after one of their worst years ever ly.

PSU -6.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

This is around -14.5 if all were normal. Crowd will be huge. Defense will shut them down. McGloin is half decent, with experience, and for a change is the undisputed starter, no more split reps.

Illinois -10 -104
2.08x to win 2

Fade Landers and heavily bet road dog MAC teams. "Dey covered ly therefore cover again". Illini are no slouch with 7th best D ly and Scheelhasse with 2 full years experience. Beckman isn't unfamiliar with WMU playing them 3x in 3 seasons @Toledo.

Georgia -38 -103
1.03x to win 1

OSU -25 -104
1.04x to win 1

ISU ML +107
1x to win 1.07

BC ML +120
1x to win 1.2

No coincidences · 09-01-12, 01:07 AM

Why is Iowa State a home dog to a C-USA team?

shooms79 · 09-01-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Why is Iowa State a home dog to a C-USA team?

VERY good question...this caught my eye as well

ANd thx for another great thread this year Sunde91. Took me a while, didnt recognize your avatar

Sunde91 · 09-01-12, 01:31 AM

It's definitely fishy. Usual disrespect for ISU, and I guess Tulsa QB Cody Green is thought of pretty highly. Only 4 career starts. Sat at Nebraska. Sat at Tulsa last year. He has good size and seems pretty athletic, dual threat, getting a chance finally.

No coincidences · 09-01-12, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

It's definitely fishy. Usual disrespect for ISU, and I guess Tulsa QB Cody Green is thought of pretty highly. Only 4 career starts. Sat at Nebraska. Sat at Tulsa last year. He has good size and seems pretty athletic, dual threat, getting a chance finally.

I'm a little worried about ISU up front. Their DL looks weak. Great LB's though. They'll miss Leonard Johnson in the secondary. Not sure about Jantz's decision making, or who he's going to throw to this year. I thought Rhoads was going to go with Barnett at QB.

Sunde91 · 09-01-12, 03:40 PM

Cal 2H -7 -110
3.3x to win 3

Duke -3 +100
1x

Sunde91 · 09-01-12, 08:48 PM

Texas 2h -13 -102
3.06x to win 3

Wyoming has done next to nothing on O after the 1st 2 drives, one a lucky 82 yard TD. Wyo's wad is shot and Texas should dominate with the O getting it together in the 2nd Q.

Sunde91 · 09-03-12, 05:54 PM

GT +7.5 -107
4.28x to win 4

GT brings back QB, A-back, B-Back, and the entire OL. A season's experience for practically the entire core of the run game is huge. All of them Seniors or Juniors, all in the triple option system for 2 or 3 years. With this talent and experience, this group is comparable to Paul Johnson's 09 team that won the ACC.

VT has a strong D with 9 returning, but they are without ILB Edwards. Arguments can be made that VT has a lot of time to prepare and will shut them down, or that VT isn't up to game speed and they'll get busted. On O, VT brings back Thomas and little else. Lost 4/5 OL, 2 RBs, top 2 WRs, TE. Thomas has to carry the weight with a lot of new faces, and it's questionable against a GT D that is pretty decent.

Sunde91 · 09-03-12, 09:09 PM

GT makes next score +160
1x to win 1.6

Sunde91 · 09-08-12, 12:33 AM

Week 1 8-10 -4.92

Overreaction week

Iowa -3.5 -107
5.35x to win 5

Preseason Iowa opened -10 at LVH, -5 at 5Dimes bet to -7.5. This is an atrocious, pathetic line based on Iowa barely beating NIU. NIU brought an unreal defensive performance and Iowa could not capitalize at all. This isn't happening to Iowa at home. Public perception is so skewed ISU on the road with a horrible line has become a very popular bet. The line in this rivalry has ranged from Iowa -20.5 to Iowa -5.5 over the last 10 years. Vandenberg shreds that D and Iowa gets revenge. Backing Iowa off letdowns is money.

Kansas State -6.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

Miami rules as they beat BC and KSU sucks now. Preseason opened -7 bet to -10. Miami to Boston 1495 miles x2. Miami to Manhattan, KS 1583 miles.

Florida ML -103
2.06x to win 2

TAM is playing their first game with a first time starter against a top 10 defense from the SEC. Florida tested 2 QBs and their Offense was terrible partially because of it. Driskel is the guy now and the best choice.

Georgia -1.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

Georgia sucks now after not handling Buffalo well enough. Mizzou talking shit thinking they're good for blowing out FCS. Reality check.

Texas Tech -18.5 -107
2.14x to win 2

A team off the biggest upset in Football history playing against a still very underrated TT team.

Nebraska -5.5 -101
2.02x to win 2

Abdullah fills in fine for Burkhead. Nebraska no respect but are the real deal. UCLA rolls Rice so now world beaters.

Washington +24 -107
2.14x to win 2

Wash struggles with SDSU so they suck now and a preseason line that was 21 is now 24. LSU has big wholes in the secondary giving up big plays to North Texas and they don't have the explosive offense to run away with it.

Wyoming -3 +100
2x

Toledo to Tuscon 1915 miles x2. Toledo to Laramie 1233 miles. Laramie elevation 7165 feet. Toledo elevation 614. Toledo off OT loss.

PSU ML +325
1x to win 3.25

PSU lost vs Nebraska after Sanduskygate then won @OSU at +6.5. Less pressure on the road, them against the world feeling, same thing here. This game would be about even on a neutral field.

Maryland ML +290
1x to win 2.9

Temple has 2 starters back on O (no QB) and 5 on D. They are not an experienced or good team. Maryland has 7 (QB) and 8 and are a lot better than a 7-6 win over William & Mary. Maryland could reasonably be favored this game.

usa25 · 09-08-12, 12:50 AM

do you think florida and nebraska are the best of your picks??

Azshadios · 09-08-12, 01:45 AM

I like Iowa, KSU,wyoming and Florida pick
I have to disagree with you on Temple vs Marryland, temple still have coyer at the QB position(he did an excellent job Last season), Marryland OLine is terrible

Sunde91 · 09-08-12, 04:21 AM

Coyer is good on the ground, but not passing. 4/5 OL are gone for Temple and they have nothing on O without the run game. Maryland has a decent chance if they can stop it.

South Carolina -21 -104
1.04x to win 1

Azshadios · 09-08-12, 04:33 AM

marryland cant even score against an inferior D from last week, there is no way they can move the ball against temple D