Classic end of season scenarios here for a couple of teams that bear consideration.
UConn @ Cincinnati -9, Saturday 12 EST
This game is a weird situation for Cincinnati. If they win, they force a 3 way tie and WVU takes the Big East due to their higher ranking. If they lose, Louisville wins due to their H2H win over WVU previously. So how does Cincinnati really get themselves up for this game when they don't directly benefit from it? They're sitting at 8-3 right now and the move to 9-3 could improve their placement with respect to bowl games, but I don't know if that really makes much of a difference to them as the margin would be pretty small. Having lost out on the chance at a BCS bowl and Collaros still out leaves me thinking that it's going to be hard for them to cover -9.
On the other side, UConn can become bowl eligible with a win and simultaneously stick it to Louisville, who have beaten them the last two games 26-0 and 34-20. I think the -9 is fair if we're talking about two teams on the same level, but I kind of think UConn comes into this game wanting it more, wanting to go to a bowl for the 5th straight season. I'm not sure the +9 isn't a pretty solid bet in this game.
Georgia @ LSU -13
A game where LSU really doesn't have anything to gain with a win of 21 points or 10 points. I feel like they won't do anything risky, but the win is still important to go into their break with momentum. The last thing they want is to have a loss in the back of their mind for a month. Georgia is the definition of a team with nothing to lose here. They're expected to lose and even getting beaten down will largely be taken as unsurprising. Statswise, Georgia is pretty comparable to LSU both on offense and defense. Where the majority of LSU's opponents have had some glaring weakness that LSU has been able to exploit (minus Alabama), Georgia is very balanced. I think if you can get +14/+14.5 or tease them up above 2 TDs, Georgia could be a great bet here.
Boise -48.5 & TCU -38.5
Where's the motivation here? TCU has the Mountain West wrapped up with the H2H win over Boise. The Frogs can improve their bowl situation to a certain extent, but not by much. Boise doesn't really have the ability to improve their placement. Both opponents are ranked so low that even big wins won't have an impact. I'm not eager to put money on New Mexico or UNLV, but i kind of doubt both of these teams cover these monster spreads.
Just my thoughts. Feedback welcome.
UConn @ Cincinnati -9, Saturday 12 EST
This game is a weird situation for Cincinnati. If they win, they force a 3 way tie and WVU takes the Big East due to their higher ranking. If they lose, Louisville wins due to their H2H win over WVU previously. So how does Cincinnati really get themselves up for this game when they don't directly benefit from it? They're sitting at 8-3 right now and the move to 9-3 could improve their placement with respect to bowl games, but I don't know if that really makes much of a difference to them as the margin would be pretty small. Having lost out on the chance at a BCS bowl and Collaros still out leaves me thinking that it's going to be hard for them to cover -9.
On the other side, UConn can become bowl eligible with a win and simultaneously stick it to Louisville, who have beaten them the last two games 26-0 and 34-20. I think the -9 is fair if we're talking about two teams on the same level, but I kind of think UConn comes into this game wanting it more, wanting to go to a bowl for the 5th straight season. I'm not sure the +9 isn't a pretty solid bet in this game.
Georgia @ LSU -13
A game where LSU really doesn't have anything to gain with a win of 21 points or 10 points. I feel like they won't do anything risky, but the win is still important to go into their break with momentum. The last thing they want is to have a loss in the back of their mind for a month. Georgia is the definition of a team with nothing to lose here. They're expected to lose and even getting beaten down will largely be taken as unsurprising. Statswise, Georgia is pretty comparable to LSU both on offense and defense. Where the majority of LSU's opponents have had some glaring weakness that LSU has been able to exploit (minus Alabama), Georgia is very balanced. I think if you can get +14/+14.5 or tease them up above 2 TDs, Georgia could be a great bet here.
Boise -48.5 & TCU -38.5
Where's the motivation here? TCU has the Mountain West wrapped up with the H2H win over Boise. The Frogs can improve their bowl situation to a certain extent, but not by much. Boise doesn't really have the ability to improve their placement. Both opponents are ranked so low that even big wins won't have an impact. I'm not eager to put money on New Mexico or UNLV, but i kind of doubt both of these teams cover these monster spreads.
Just my thoughts. Feedback welcome.
