LSU-Alabama SHOWDOWN with John Ryan

[CBASS]

Glad to see CBASS is on LSU .

It's okay Bama. May the best team win.

[CBASS]

Against WHO? They've faced ONE quality QB this season in Geno Smith (463 passing yards vs LSU), compared to 3 rookie QBs (Matt Simms (Tennessee), Jacoby Brisset (Florida), Moseley/Frazier (Auburn). Take out Smith and the FCS team and LSU's opponents are only putting up 191 yards per game on the season, so I think it's pretty fair to say LSU's secondary has not really been challenged yet.

By comparison, McCarron is averaging 228ypg against teams allowing 207ypg. Not that I'm saying McCarron is a stud QB, but he's better than the majority of the opponents LSU has faced this year.



Do they? LSU is putting up 183 passing yards per game (100th in FBS) against opponents allowing 199 per game. Even if you blame that low total on LSU being a run-heavy offense, LSU is putting up 372 ypg of total offense against teams allowing 358ypg. Their run game is good for 189ypg (30th in FBS) against opponents allowing 159ypg for 4.3ypc (54th in FBS). That's not that impressive for an elite team.

By comparison, Alabama is running for 229ypg (14th in FBS) against opponents allowing 154ypg and 5.8ypc (6th in FBS).

If you want to talk defense, Alabama is allowing opponents 181 ypg in total offense vs teams that average 323ypg of offense. LSU is allowing 251 ypg against teams that normally put up 382ypg. A differential of +142 for Alabama and +131 for LSU. Virtually dead even. So for all the talk about how good LSU's defense is, Alabama's defense is just as good in total defense, and better than LSU's in many key statistics.

Your stat watching is misleading. I have watched every single game by these two teams. LSU often times chooses to wear teams down, not because they can't pass the ball. If you watched them play, you would know this. Why does Jarrett Lee have 13 tds and 1 int? Who wouldn't keep passing the ball with stats like that? Simple, they don't have to. They will unleash the passing game against Bama. Guaranteed.

As far as LSU's defense. Have you not seen LSU's defensive line? Everyone talks about how big Bama's O-Line is and say it will push LSU around. Really? Do they not know that LSU has DE's that run 4.6 40's and are in the backfield before anyone can block them. LOL

[ZBOIZ]

Is this the same OLINE from last year ????

[suicidekings]

Your stat watching is misleading. I have watched every single game by these two teams. LSU often times chooses to wear teams down, not because they can't pass the ball. If you watched them play, you would know this. Why does Jarrett Lee have 13 tds and 1 int? Who wouldn't keep passing the ball with stats like that? Simple, they don't have to. They will unleash the passing game against Bama. Guaranteed.

As far as LSU's defense. Have you not seen LSU's defensive line? Everyone talks about how big Bama's O-Line is and say it will push LSU around. Really? Do they not know that LSU has DE's that run 4.6 40's and are in the backfield before anyone can block them. LOL

I would say I've watched about the same number of Alabama & LSU games. Both teams have impressed me, however back to the point I made above, LSU has had quite a few soft tosses as well against rookie QBs and the one veteran QB they faced threw for 460 yards against them.

[CBASS]

I would say I've watched about the same number of Alabama & LSU games. Both teams have impressed me, however back to the point I made above, LSU has had quite a few soft tosses as well against rookie QBs and the one veteran QB they faced threw for 460 yards against them.

They allowed Geno Smith to throw for those yards. Watch the film Suicide. I'm not arguing, just trying to show you is all. LSU did not play up on the line in the 2nd half. They essentially allowed WV to keep making short passes to eat the clock. In other words, they sacrificed giving up yards to basically 'ice' the game. Go look at the film. It is not because they could not stop them. They gave WV that soft cushion.

[John Ryan]

The 5* Plays are UAB, that the report shows will give Houston a tough battle. 5* Alabama that I have upgraded to a full blown 10* play and a 5* UNDER Bama and a 5* on K-State.

I will be back at 4:30 to disscuss the latest news on the LSU-Bama game. As I mentioned in my final thoughts article on the front page. I just do not see how LSU can overcome the massive dominance and physicality of the 'Bama linebackers. Let me know your thoughts and research too. I enjoy learning and always have maintained an open mind. Obviously, I am not always right. More right than wrong though Laugh.

[smflanagan]

Thanks John! Go BAMA

[Miaggi]

The 5* Plays are UAB, that the report shows will give Houston a tough battle. 5* Alabama that I have upgraded to a full blown 10* play and a 5* UNDER Bama and a 5* on K-State.

I will be back at 4:30 to disscuss the latest news on the LSU-Bama game. As I mentioned in my final thoughts article on the front page. I just do not see how LSU can overcome the massive dominance and physicality of the 'Bama linebackers. Let me know your thoughts and research too. I enjoy learning and always have maintained an open mind. Obviously, I am not always right. More right than wrong though Laugh.

Thanks John, I am new to NCAAF, K-State means Kansas State?

[Wolfpacker]

Thanks John, I am new to NCAAF, K-State means Kansas State?

yes - Kansas St.

[Hawk007]

OKST will destroy KST IMHO. Agree with Bama.

[Jay2k1civic]

I have also watched every LSU BAMA game...I have placed bets on just about every game between the two...

Things to consider...LSU has not allowed a TD in the 1Q this year....(could change tonight).... BAMA schedule is weaker and one game struggled til half time....TOOK over 2h....not sure which game but i actually felt like the spread wasnt going to cover...

...... OVER UNDER can go either way...id stay away from that.... COACHES possibly practice different plays for games like this ......

BAMA coach is 3-2 after a BYE week....and both losses came vs. LSU - LSU is much better than last year....
Just some thoughts...im not touching this game, id rather enjoy it...

GO LSU!!!!! and go BAMA RB...

[John Ryan]

I really do not have anymore research to offer. I like Bama as a 10* play, which is quite strong based on my 5* 10* 15* 20* and 25* play grading system produced by my simulator. The the 5 and 10 star plays hit well ATS and because they outnumber the bigger plays by about a 6 to 1 margin.... it offers you the chance to step up to play the bigger plays that hit about 70 to 75% over the past 15 years with the backup of playing with the house money. That is the case with the NFl where I am 23-12 with 5* plays on that thread and 2-0 with 10* play and 1-1 with 20* releases. So the combination of the 10 and 20 star release net to the equivalent of a three-and-a-half 5* winners. So being up a net of 11 5* winners allows us the luxury of playing BIG. So many amatueurs only step up big with a bet when they are down a ton and trying to get even and that is the worse recipe for financial disaster.

[John Ryan]

I will go out on a limb and state the following knowing it is obvious in hindsight adn serves no benefit to forecasting the game. The team that wins the TOP and turnover battle will win the big game. Period. That is the one true fact about nearly all big games. I know that is plaing obvious, but I know it will apply to tonight's game as well. However, LSU is the one with the gambling coach in Les Miles and they are the DOG that may be forced to play the roulette wheel in order to win the game. 'Bama can play their power running game and allow McCarron to make plays on play action where he will have time to make high percentage completions

[Delirium tremens]

Miles has balls and will pull out all the stops to win tonight.......I like LSU and the 5!!

[ZOLAS]

John,

A very competitive game. As a california guy born and raised, prefer the qb play of our pack ten, but these 2 teams may be the best in the NCAA. I think the call on the interception could have went either way (could have been seen as both control until they hit the ground, which would = offense possession.) You were right about LSU not being able to run, and Bama had opportunities to cover.

Small loss this week in the college pigskin, no worries.... next case! Right?

ZOLAS

[sweethook]

nice job guys. we givem hell of a run ,

[aussieH]

John you covered the under easy. No real damage anu onto the nfl picks

[adrenalinerush]

Absolutely amazing to me that a team that is so ominant in every other aspect of the game does not have a decent kicker.

[John Ryan]

John,

A very competitive game. As a california guy born and raised, prefer the qb play of our pack ten, but these 2 teams may be the best in the NCAA. I think the call on the interception could have went either way (could have been seen as both control until they hit the ground, which would = offense possession.) You were right about LSU not being able to run, and Bama had opportunities to cover.

Small loss this week in the college pigskin, no worries.... next case! Right?

ZOLAS

You are so very right. What a great defensive game though. 'Bama did nt execute and complete the plays necessary to win the game.

[John Ryan]

Absolutely amazing to me that a team that is so ominant in every other aspect of the game does not have a decent kicker.

Florida State was the same way when the lost so many games with the infamous wider-right missed kicks, several of which would have kept them in the National race

[ZBOIZ]

Goes to show you Saban is not what everybody make him