What happened to Reverse Line Movement?

[MuchoPeso]

It seems that last season a lot of people were harping about RLM and I did have some success tailing this one thread about it. However, I haven't heard anyone talking about it too much this season and I don't know why. Does anyone believe in RLM? If so what do you think about these plays:

Indiana opened at +17 and has moved to +14 with 60% of public on Illinois.
Penn St opened at -1.5 and is now -4.5 with 70% on Iowa.
Rutgers opened at +9 and now is +7 with 68% on Pitt.
Bowling Green opened +12, now +10.5 with 80% on WM.
Northwestern opened +10, now +7.5 with 64% on Michigan.
Utah St. opened -9.5, now -12 with 70% on Wyoming.
Akron opened +21.5, now +17 with 72% on FIU.

Anything to this or am I reading too much into it? Personally I am all over Iowa over Penn St and the Under.

[TodaysLocks]

Keep in mind that consensus, meaning the % on a team, does not drive line movement.

It's the amount of money involved in those percentages.

99% could be on Penn ST, with total wagers of $900,000.

But 1% could be on Iowa with total wager of 1million.

The money is what matters. I say just pick your own games, and leave RLM to the books. Good luck.

[angelodebo]

MuchuPeso....I am a firm believer in RLM. I bet if you wager on those picks...you end up in the green today.

Indiana, Penn St, Rutgers, Bowling Green, Northwestern, Utah St. and Akron..take em all..Probably hit five out of the seven.

[suicidekings]

It's like any other advantage that gets identified publicly. Over time, the value depreciates.

[Vin_vermillion]

It's like any other advantage that gets identified publicly. Over time, the value depreciates.

This is exactly right. Once the books realize the public has identified it, they adjust.

this is part of why I think people are idiots for putting systems on this site that they know work.

[Serbone]

Which lines? Vegas, offshore, which books?
DO you trust the data?
What does it really mean?
Is it the so called PUBLIC or the so called SHARPS?
You do not know.
I works some times... but is that just "random"?
Ignore it, handicap the game!

[dozer]

rlm in college and nba hoops is unreal.......imo it is a lot more effective in those sports

[suicidekings]

This is exactly right. Once the books realize the public has identified it, they adjust. this is part of why I think people are idiots for putting systems on this site that they know work.

I was listening to Dr. Bob on Chad Millman's Behind the Bets podcast a few weeks back and he was talking about the concept of yards per point and how when he first developed and started using that metric to rate games, it was very successful. However, over time, as he talked about ypp in his releases he's seen the market shift so where he used to have a good sized window to operate before lines moved, he's now getting undercut more and more by the new middle class of more educated public bettors, hitting the early lines that used to only get hit by true sharp players. He admitted that it was a poor longterm decision regarding his profitability to talk about ypp in detail. If a concept that's grounded firmly in the actual gameplay can fall off the rails by being publicized, then the much more subjective line movement analysis of any kind was doomed from the start.

This idea of the expanding middle class (filling the gap between the true public gameday bettors and sharp money) has revolutionized how the betting market operates in the last few years. The concept of the sharp side and the square side of a particular game falls apart when you consider that the same guy might play the -2.5 opener on a game and then buy it back if the line crosses over to +3 or +3.5 because both may represent a +EV play. It gets even worse when people start talking about RLM on a Tuesday/Wednesday for a Saturday/Sunday game when the betting % are probably not even representing the true market position on the game.

[Vin_vermillion]

great post, suicide....and I believe 100% accurate