Thoughts on a betting strategy to those mathematically inclined

[alpha968]

Firstly, my apologies to those of you that are advanced bettors - I'm sure this is fairly basic as things go. I'm still relatively new to betting and I'd like to get your opinion on it.

I frequently notice a pretty large disparity (3-5 points) in where the spread starts (generally on Monday mornings) and where the spread ends up (usually right before game time). For instance, imagine the following hypothetical Stanford v USC scenario :

Stanford is -1 on Monday morning - and I buy in with $110 dollars (the book I use pays out $100 for a $110 bet)
However, before game time Stanford has moved to -4.5, and I place an equivalent $110 bet for USC (at +4.5)

So if Stanford wins by more than 1 or USC loses by less than 4.5, I make a $10 loss. However, if Stanford wins by between 1 and 4.5, I make a $200 profit. Mathematically speaking, if there is a greater than 5% chance of that occurring, that is a bet I should make. Correct?

Is that line of reasoning accurate? And if so, do you guys know of any way I could go about modeling what the likelihood is of a score falling within a particular range?

Thanks and apologies if I'm making an extremely elementary mistake.

[BettingWizard]

3 and 4 are key numbers so yeah you would profit in the long run. Even if it was just +3.5 you would still have a nice edge

[dozer]

not a bad way of betting.....will never lose a lot really, and when you win you double up, but those wins may only happen a few times a month....... basically if can hit 1/20 games like this you will be ahead.......definately doable.....just wont win/lose much over a years time. maybe a good way to bet for degens or those that blow.

[BernardMadoff]

Its called middling, I rarely do it, better off picking just one spread IMO.

[alpha968]

Its called middling, I rarely do it, better off picking just one spread IMO.

For an individual investor that makes complete sense. However, to me it seems like there might be an opportunity to systematically and strategically employ this strategy with consistent returns with a large amount of initial capital. Right? Or am I oversimplifying things?