Its funny ya only show up to correct me NASLAX......................
You want the stage that bad you can have it.....................
You want the stage that bad you can have it.....................
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Yeah man that was some bullsh*t never seen anything like it. Regardless ur still sitting at 66%. Thanks for this thread. Keep it up.Comment -
only because you posted that as a reply to me, atleast get it right if your gonna tauntComment -
hey man i respect you, aside from myself, your the only guy on these boards that understands the game..
Last edited by naslax13; 10-31-11, 12:49 AM.Comment -
Boy are you in for a surprise. Obviously you do NOT know the game at all. Let me give both you and Pauly a little lesson. First, the terms "sharps and squares" are the most misleading terms used on this, and any other site. What people insinuate is that "sharps" are high rollers, and "squares" are not. Nothinng could be further from the truth. The size of your wager does not make you a sharp or a square. Wagering with, or against a certain line's movement does not make you a sharp or a square. There are still more losing "high rollers" than there are winning ones. The determining factor is simply this. How well do you do over a period of time. One season is not sufficient to make that determination. If you win over 55% of your wagers over a 5 year period, you should be considered a sharp. If you do not, then you are not a sharp. The size of the wager has nothing to do with it.Comment -
Well you say I don't know the game at all but right now i'm running at 65% win rate and +42 units on the season--so in your terms (55%+)--I am "sharp". Secondly, I don't refer to the "high rollers" when i say sharp, I refer to the betting groups who bet millions and bet enough to shift lines. For example, the man in my icon.Last edited by naslax13; 10-31-11, 11:09 AM.Comment -
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I know exactly of what you talk about, because I am involved in one of those groups. That still does not make these groups "sharps". You are NOT a sharp unless you can prove that you have gone over 55% for five straight years, something which I am willing to bet that you cannot prove. Just because someone can wager enough to move a line (something that is very easy to do now) does not make that person, or group a "Sharp". May individuals, including myself, can do that today, since it takes such a relatively small amount of money being wagered to move a line in the college game. If you are wealthy, you can also make a wager big enough to move a line.
I am hitting 56% now for this season. I am sure that there are others in here doing better than that. What makes me a "sharp" is that I have done that for 7 years in a row, and have shown a profit in 9 years out of 10. I average about 58.5% over the past 10 years. Now I will guarantee you that someone will do better than that in here on any given year, but NO ONE who is truthful can say that they have done it for 9 years out of 10. That is the difference between a "sharp" and a "square", which is just a general term that refers to all of the other bettors. I am by far, the most consistant player that I know. I am in it for the long run. Right now, I am up 344 units so far, based on 100 units per wager. Again, not a lot, but much more than the average guy in here can make because of the size of my wagers. I have 7 over/under win wagers and will win a minimum of 4 of those wagers. If it is only 4, that is still 57%, and that is a profit. Anyone that knows anything about gaming will tell you that you are in it for the long haul. If you are as good as you amke yourself out to be, you know that this is the only way to play the game. I will also guarantee you that I have made more money wagering than anyone else in here. I have the proof, if anyone cares to challenge me, but it is going to cost you a lot of money to find out.Comment -
Lol, the fact you've been betting for 7 years just makes you an old dude!
Everyone's welcome to their own definition, but sharps and suqares are exactly as they sound. Sharps hit the line, squares tail the line, period. If you're really a sharp than you hit your lines when they come out in July. Who's to say everyone betting week by week isn't just a square?
That said, this year especially in ncaa, favorites have been killing. If you're only 56/57% then get ready to lose it all. In alot of situations this is hardly enough to pay the juice, so for alot of people hitting only %55 means they'll lose 2-5% in juice. So you've risked 5,750 units to win 345. I'm pretty sure if sharp meant anything else besides being an early bettor, than it would reflect success, not a consistent squeaker record. And why would it cost us to see you try to prove yourself? Save that excuse for the kids.Comment -
Ok new gambler alert question here. So, I have only been wagering for about 3 years and just this year I started practicing sound money management since I have NOT made profit the past 3 years. So with a $1,000 bankroll, my goal this year was to 1) make it through the entire football season and 2) wager consistently between 2-5% per game. So I ask you all pros this. If I am placing my Saturday wagers on Thursday or Friday and am winning at 55%, what does it matter if I am a square bettor? Again, just a question for you sharps. ?Comment -
Pauly, thank you for the info and for your picks. It does not go unappreciated!Comment -
Well what factors are you betting on? Why can't you do your work on Sunday and place your bets on Monday? Sharping increases your odds if you're good with picks and can predict how the line's going to move. Especially if you're only earning 2%...If you lose money every season, then why start with $1000? Maybe start with $100 and pretend? lol.. Also, if you're only winning 55% than you should be losing %4 betting at -110 juice. Where are you betting to be hitting only 55% and making "profit"?Comment -
big daddy wheres your thread?
nice work paulyComment -
Factors? I guess they vary but I take a lot of dogs that have a good chance of winning and tend to have good value and I have noticed this year that the lines tend to get better for me the closer I wait to game time. Is this a false assumption? Example: I liked KC from the start and the line opened at my book at KC +3. When I finally placed my bet I had gotten KC +3.5 at -105 at BETUS. Just half a point, but as the game unfolded last night, that half a point COULD have made a difference. Turns out they won outright but my point is this:
1) How do you know WHICH games and lines are the sharp ones to be on so soon (i.e. Monday for Saturday, Tuesday for Sunday, etc.)
2) What difference does it make being a square bettor if one comes out over 55% for long term.
Again, please understand this is NOT an argument, but I am trying to learn best from you pros. To answer your question on why start with $1,000, it is just an easy round number for math calculations (1%, 2%, etc) and well within my affordable range of what I can afford to lose. This is entertainment for me but I hope to get better, learn, and increase bankroll, wagers and confidence over the next 5-10 years.
Also, if you're only winning 55% than you should be losing %4 betting at -110 juice. Where are you betting to be hitting only 55% and making "profit"
True, but not if I do alot of ML dogs or dogs that have value. I made a killing in the baseball playoffs betting for value. I only won between 55-60% but every win was at +150 or better. The other type of bets I look for are the favs that have reduced juice at -105. Last night, KC was +3.5 at -105 at BETUS.Comment -
Yeah I'm not trying to argue either, I'm just a mean dude, hahaha. You like to bet dogs, and you like to bet with the money, great! Now what else are you going to start keying on? My favorite factor is coaches who love to keep piling on points, followed by quarterbacks, and then game history(if they played them withing the last 2 years).
1) The best way to sharp your bets is to check your favorite teams and guess the spreads before they come out on Sunday. If you're good then the lines will move your way, but there's always 1 that goes the wrong way.
2) By sharping you're trying to get in on the line because you think it's going to get hit and go your way. Last week I hit Stanford at -7 before it pushed to -8 and won big because of it. All these little points and half points add up, so the quicker you can get in than the more it increases your odds.
3) Try some ML parlays, heavy favorites have been crushing this year!Comment -
Pauly, I have been tailing you and Nas the past couple weeks and I like your style. Can you point a newbie in the right direction with some links/tips/books/etc. on sharps/squares? Thanks for making me money.
Sincerely,
The ColonelComment -
Doesn't all boil down to winning or losing,,, sharp or square eh, a winner is still a winnerComment -
That's what I said...At -110 odds the BE% is 52.4%...everyone knows this. That means anything more is profit assuming the same odds. If you believe that you can't make money hitting 55% then you're missing something. Pick up Sharp Sports Betting from Wong he goes over these basic concepts in detail.Last edited by ManBearPig; 11-01-11, 04:12 PM.Comment -
Pauly, you got any early leans this week in ncaaf? I like redskins in nfl, nothing really stands out too much yet to me this week in ncaa.. Although i think tex a+m is too good to be getting 14 vs anyone.. Not many key movements yet that I've seenComment -
Wait so what am I missing? All I know is that at -110 where im at is betting 100 to win 90.91, so that's 9.1% juice....I don't know the exacts so let's figure it out.
52.4 to break even sounds right, tried the math, weird stuff, lol
If I bet 100 on 1000 games and got 524 wins than I got 52,400 and I'll pay $4763 in juice leaving me with $47,637...
Then 476 losses comes out to $47,600 so I'll end up positive $37.
Good eye you guys, I guess I figured if this guy could move his WL from 55% to 57% than I could move juice from 2 to 5%, hahaComment -
Well I am not a math guy. All I know is that I have positive money still in my account, have been wagering between 2-5% per game, have been getting value on my games. I just needed to know how you all knew WHICH games were the "sharp" ones to be on so soon in the week, that's all. For example, Pauly comes out and says for example that USC is the game to be on and NASLAX says GA Tech is the game. Well, I took them both AT GAMETIME and won both. At BETUS I had USC + 8.5 and GA Tech +4.5. I notice that at my book, the dog tends to go up quite often as money is being dumped on the favorite but I guess I was just wondering how everyone knows on MONDAY which game to move on. Thanks guys.Comment -
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Bama is sharp as hell!Comment -
Bama is about as sharp as a bowling ball! Lsu wins straight up!Comment -
Its extremely sharp. Everybody and their mother is all over LSU this year. They are a very good team indeed. However bookies don't hand out snow in the winter, and they go out and give you +5 on LSU??? They are begging you to take the points... Im with you on this one pauly. Bama and Redskins are my strongest early leans this week.Last edited by naslax13; 11-02-11, 04:04 PM.Comment -
Getting Bama at -3 would've been sharp because they hit the line to 4.5Comment
