As we enter the I-AA/cream puff portion of the college football season we're going to see some huge spreads. These spreads can be tempting because such huge mismatches can lead to some really soft lines. Yet the games can be hard to cap because being glorified preseason games the favorites can pretty much name the score. With that in mind here are some factors to consider:
Running game: When teams get out to a decent lead they tend to stop throwing the football, but if the team is good at running the football they can keep scoring without really having to try.
Depth: Another thing that happens when teams get out to a lead is they clear the benches, sometimes playing third stringers and even walk-ons. If the team has a lot of depth they can still score, especially if the backups are big time recruits who had a legit shot at competing for the starting job in fall practice.
Heisman trophy candidates: A lot of times if a player is being talked about as a Heisman candidate they'll be motivated to put up huge numbers in early games to pad their stats, like Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State or Trent Richardson at Alabama.
Coach's attitude: Some coaches don't like to run up the score and treat the cupcake games practically like NFL Preseason. Other coaches, especially in the Big East, feel the need to run up the score to distract their fans from the harsh reality that their gimmick offense can only take them so far.
Cupcake strength: Not all cupcakes are created equal. Some struggle not to go winless even against other I-AA teams. Others, like Appalachian State and a few CAA teams, pose a legit threat to beat their bowl-eligible brethren. Mid-majors like Troy and Southern Miss are nothing like New Mexico who lost last year's opener to Oregon 72-
These factors will hopefully help you distinguish between a comfortable 55-3 beat down or a 35-17 potential backdoor cover.
Running game: When teams get out to a decent lead they tend to stop throwing the football, but if the team is good at running the football they can keep scoring without really having to try.
Depth: Another thing that happens when teams get out to a lead is they clear the benches, sometimes playing third stringers and even walk-ons. If the team has a lot of depth they can still score, especially if the backups are big time recruits who had a legit shot at competing for the starting job in fall practice.
Heisman trophy candidates: A lot of times if a player is being talked about as a Heisman candidate they'll be motivated to put up huge numbers in early games to pad their stats, like Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State or Trent Richardson at Alabama.
Coach's attitude: Some coaches don't like to run up the score and treat the cupcake games practically like NFL Preseason. Other coaches, especially in the Big East, feel the need to run up the score to distract their fans from the harsh reality that their gimmick offense can only take them so far.
Cupcake strength: Not all cupcakes are created equal. Some struggle not to go winless even against other I-AA teams. Others, like Appalachian State and a few CAA teams, pose a legit threat to beat their bowl-eligible brethren. Mid-majors like Troy and Southern Miss are nothing like New Mexico who lost last year's opener to Oregon 72-
These factors will hopefully help you distinguish between a comfortable 55-3 beat down or a 35-17 potential backdoor cover.