Good luck everyone!
Game #1 New Mexico Bowl BYU – UTEP December 18th
As expected, BYU started slow and finished fast. Younger than usual, it took a few games before the Cougars began to play like a bowl team. This is not the desired site but at least it’s not their 6th straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl! UTEP started 5-1 but as we all know, Mike Price has a knack for finding ways to lose games. Consecutive losses to UAB, Tulane and Marshall, all non-bowlers, nearly killed bowl hopes. The ’10 bowl season features more great matchups than usual but this duel of former conference opponents is not one of them.
BYU Analysis: BYU’s schedule featured 6 bowlers early, leaving them with a 28 point D, 5.1 run D and 63% pass D. In the easier last 5 games BYU had a 12 point D, 2.9 run D and 48.5% pass D and 10 interceptions. The overall point D was 26 vs. bowl teams which is not too bad considering how young they were. QB Heaps will be a good one, but he’s still learning and threw only for 55+%. BYU has a pair of very capable RB’s and several decent WR’s. They have a solid PK and kickoff specialist. The sack ratio was just 20-21.
UTEP Analysis: The Miners aren’t even close to a great team, which often means nothing in early bowl games (ask Fresno as a DD favorite loser last year). We only use uncorrected run #’s for tier 2 and 3 teams, and UTEP ran 4.6 and allowed 4.9 on the run D. They pass more than run but have a pair of solid RB’s. Their QB is vastly experienced yet his completion % is a too low 54+%. WR Adams is the big play guy but there are other targets. UTEP has a solid return guy but their PK hit just 11-19 on the year. The team allowed 39 points to 4 bowl teams but just 25.5 overall.
Other stats, trends and game keys: UTEP is the rush and point stat pick, but the categories are not meaningful. The line (12) is accurate. BYU keys are using a possible run pound to set up the play action pass and big play (UTEP allows big plays), hold UTEP to field goal tries, and come out motivated for this quasi bowl game. UTEP keys are to not beat themselves, use special team plays to their advantage, and stop the run. BYU is not the rush pick, so UTEP on paper should compete here. Both teams should have plenty of time to throw.
Pick: BYU is clearly the HOT team, but faces a deadly trio of bad spread trends. Teams with strong ATS finishes are 58-84 vs. the spread. Teams off a loss in their last game and then favored by over a TD in a bowl game are 14-28 ATS. UTEP also qualifies in a strong 56-23 early bowl dog situation. We’re not Mike Price fans, but all the data points to a spread cover. Teams in UTEP’s situation have been an aggregate 31-8 lately ATS and that can’t be passed up. We’ll call this one 30-23 BYU. 2*** UTEP.
Game #1 New Mexico Bowl BYU – UTEP December 18th
As expected, BYU started slow and finished fast. Younger than usual, it took a few games before the Cougars began to play like a bowl team. This is not the desired site but at least it’s not their 6th straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl! UTEP started 5-1 but as we all know, Mike Price has a knack for finding ways to lose games. Consecutive losses to UAB, Tulane and Marshall, all non-bowlers, nearly killed bowl hopes. The ’10 bowl season features more great matchups than usual but this duel of former conference opponents is not one of them.
BYU Analysis: BYU’s schedule featured 6 bowlers early, leaving them with a 28 point D, 5.1 run D and 63% pass D. In the easier last 5 games BYU had a 12 point D, 2.9 run D and 48.5% pass D and 10 interceptions. The overall point D was 26 vs. bowl teams which is not too bad considering how young they were. QB Heaps will be a good one, but he’s still learning and threw only for 55+%. BYU has a pair of very capable RB’s and several decent WR’s. They have a solid PK and kickoff specialist. The sack ratio was just 20-21.
UTEP Analysis: The Miners aren’t even close to a great team, which often means nothing in early bowl games (ask Fresno as a DD favorite loser last year). We only use uncorrected run #’s for tier 2 and 3 teams, and UTEP ran 4.6 and allowed 4.9 on the run D. They pass more than run but have a pair of solid RB’s. Their QB is vastly experienced yet his completion % is a too low 54+%. WR Adams is the big play guy but there are other targets. UTEP has a solid return guy but their PK hit just 11-19 on the year. The team allowed 39 points to 4 bowl teams but just 25.5 overall.
Other stats, trends and game keys: UTEP is the rush and point stat pick, but the categories are not meaningful. The line (12) is accurate. BYU keys are using a possible run pound to set up the play action pass and big play (UTEP allows big plays), hold UTEP to field goal tries, and come out motivated for this quasi bowl game. UTEP keys are to not beat themselves, use special team plays to their advantage, and stop the run. BYU is not the rush pick, so UTEP on paper should compete here. Both teams should have plenty of time to throw.
Pick: BYU is clearly the HOT team, but faces a deadly trio of bad spread trends. Teams with strong ATS finishes are 58-84 vs. the spread. Teams off a loss in their last game and then favored by over a TD in a bowl game are 14-28 ATS. UTEP also qualifies in a strong 56-23 early bowl dog situation. We’re not Mike Price fans, but all the data points to a spread cover. Teams in UTEP’s situation have been an aggregate 31-8 lately ATS and that can’t be passed up. We’ll call this one 30-23 BYU. 2*** UTEP.
