A friend of mine who subscribes to the Dual Threat Sports service sent me tonight's write-up. I believe he is pretty good in the PAC 10, so hopefully this is a winner.
ASU +5.5
Tonight in Tucson we have two very evenly matched teams. From a statistical perspective ASU and Arizona are nearly dead even in every offensive and defensive category. In PAC 10 play ASU's pass efficiency is nearly identical w/ AZ's (133.59 to 133.70). Their YPP offense are dead even, rushing yards are nearly dead even, pass yards are exactly dead even (281.75 ASU vs 281.63 AZ), Devils have a slight PPG advantage 26 ppg vs 24.88 ppg. Defensively it’s the same story, Devils have a slightly better YPP allowed 5.17 vs 5.40, Devils have the better run D, Cats have the better pass D in terms of ypg (256 ASU vs 225.5 AZ), but Devil defensive PE is slightly better than AZ's. Devils allow 24 ppg and AZ allows 24,25. The biggest concern in taking the Sun Devils is at QB (Osweiler making only his 2nd career start) and in the turnover margin (ASU -8 vs Arizona’s -1). Arizona clearly has the advantage in both categories ……… or do they? In the last 4 games Arizona’s pass efficiency rating is 129.95 while ASU’s is 154.66. In ASU's first 4 PAC 10 games they had a -10 turnover ratio and in their last 4 they've had a +2. Arizona on the other hand had a +2 in their first 4 PAC 10 games but a -2 in their last 4 PAC 10 games. Arizona started out the season 7-1 but as the competition picked up the Cats haven’t been able to keep up. Coach Mike Stoops doesn't beat around the bush when assessing why his team's fortunes have been sagging of late after they played into the nation's top-10 earlier in the season. "We've played better teams down the stretch, teams that emphasize running the football," he said. "Our inability to stop the run consistently has led a little bit to our demise." The last three foes -- Stanford, USC and Oregon -- each rushed for more than 200 yards in wins over the Wildcats, including 389 yards on the ground from the Ducks. Arizona State has a spread passing offense, but it also has two good young tailbacks in sophomore Cameron Marshall and true freshman Deantre Lewis. ASU is also the only team in the country to have played (and played competitively) 3 top 5 ranked teams (Oregon, Stanford and Wisconsin). If Arizona State holds onto the football they win this game outright. In either event it should be a very tough, competitive game and I’ll take the points in that situation.
ASU +5.5
Tonight in Tucson we have two very evenly matched teams. From a statistical perspective ASU and Arizona are nearly dead even in every offensive and defensive category. In PAC 10 play ASU's pass efficiency is nearly identical w/ AZ's (133.59 to 133.70). Their YPP offense are dead even, rushing yards are nearly dead even, pass yards are exactly dead even (281.75 ASU vs 281.63 AZ), Devils have a slight PPG advantage 26 ppg vs 24.88 ppg. Defensively it’s the same story, Devils have a slightly better YPP allowed 5.17 vs 5.40, Devils have the better run D, Cats have the better pass D in terms of ypg (256 ASU vs 225.5 AZ), but Devil defensive PE is slightly better than AZ's. Devils allow 24 ppg and AZ allows 24,25. The biggest concern in taking the Sun Devils is at QB (Osweiler making only his 2nd career start) and in the turnover margin (ASU -8 vs Arizona’s -1). Arizona clearly has the advantage in both categories ……… or do they? In the last 4 games Arizona’s pass efficiency rating is 129.95 while ASU’s is 154.66. In ASU's first 4 PAC 10 games they had a -10 turnover ratio and in their last 4 they've had a +2. Arizona on the other hand had a +2 in their first 4 PAC 10 games but a -2 in their last 4 PAC 10 games. Arizona started out the season 7-1 but as the competition picked up the Cats haven’t been able to keep up. Coach Mike Stoops doesn't beat around the bush when assessing why his team's fortunes have been sagging of late after they played into the nation's top-10 earlier in the season. "We've played better teams down the stretch, teams that emphasize running the football," he said. "Our inability to stop the run consistently has led a little bit to our demise." The last three foes -- Stanford, USC and Oregon -- each rushed for more than 200 yards in wins over the Wildcats, including 389 yards on the ground from the Ducks. Arizona State has a spread passing offense, but it also has two good young tailbacks in sophomore Cameron Marshall and true freshman Deantre Lewis. ASU is also the only team in the country to have played (and played competitively) 3 top 5 ranked teams (Oregon, Stanford and Wisconsin). If Arizona State holds onto the football they win this game outright. In either event it should be a very tough, competitive game and I’ll take the points in that situation.
