Missouri Tigers 7-point underdogs at Nebraska
Missouri is unbeaten and ranked in the top 10, but if the Tigers want to truly earn respect from college football bettors and fans they will have to prove their worth this Saturday at Nebraska.
A good reputation counts for a lot in this world. If you have a one, people will overlook your flaws. If you don’t, they’ll overlook your positive attributes. That explains the betting odds for Saturday’s Big 12 matchup between the Missouri Tigers, the last undefeated team in the conference at 7-0 (5-2 ATS), and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS).
Nebraska is a 7½-point favorite at most books, even though Missouri just got finished knocking the Oklahoma Sooners out of first place in the BCS standings.
The Cornhuskers are undeniably the more popular brand in this matchup. This is one of the signature programs in college football, one of only seven FBS teams to reach 800 wins and not that far removed from their championship reign in the mid-1990s.
Missouri has also been around since ancient times, but the Tigers haven’t been to a major bowl game in 40 years. Nebraska won every single game in this Rivalry between 1979 and 2002. This is how reputations are made.
The truth of the matter is that Missouri is 4-3 SU and ATS over the past seven years. The Tigers program was in disrepair until Gary Pinkel was hired in 2001; by 2007, the Tigers were in the rankings and winning the Cotton Bowl. That team had players like Heisman contender Chase Daniels at quarterback and current NFL star Jeremy Maclin at wideout. But this could be Pinkel’s best season yet. Blaine Gabbert (11 TDs, three INTs) is a steady hand at the tiller, and the Mizzou defense is one of the best in the nation at 13.1 points allowed per game.
Nebraska had some lean years before Bo Pelini came on board in 2008, but the Cornhuskers are back in the national spotlight as if they had never left. Pelini took a chance this year on freshman Taylor Martinez, the first freshman QB ever to start Opening Day for the ‘Huskers, and Martinez has delivered 20 touchdowns: eight passing and 12 rushing.
Besides all that running, any doubts about Martinez’ ability to throw the ball were erased last week when he dumped five TD passes on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6 home dogs) in a 51-41 victory.
While casual fans drool over the Nebraska option offense, it’s the clash of styles that makes a matchup, and sharps are paying close attention to the pass defenses of both teams. The ‘Huskers are No. 1 in the FBS against the pass, according to the S&P efficiency stats at Football Outsiders (Mizzou is No. 5), with much of that success coming from Nebraska’s back seven.
But this is the same defense that was routed by Oklahoma State. The Tigers will have their opportunities to move the chains with Gabbert operating behind a strong offensive line.
The ‘Huskers defensive line might not be as dominant as it was last year with Ndamukong Suh at tackle, but the Tigers also got taken down a peg last week when tackle Dominique Hamilton broke his ankle and was lost for the season. This is a big blow to Mizzou’s run defense, which goes into this week ranked No. 14 on the S&P charts, one up on Nebraska at No. 15. Of the two quarterbacks, the mobile Martinez has the better chance of making a big splash on Saturday.
As good as the Tigers are, it’s entirely reasonable for the Cornhuskers to be favored at their Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. It’s the 7½ points that has heads turning. That’s up from seven points at the open; consensus reports showed some early action on Nebraska, but the extra half point appears to have stabilized the market.
Weather won’t play a factor in this game, as the forecast calls for clear skies and warm temperatures for kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. That half-point is hard to pass up.
If you prefer the ‘Huskers in this contest, make sure to shop around. They’re available at -7 at a handful of books as we go to press, and that price might not hold up against the weekend rush.
Missouri is unbeaten and ranked in the top 10, but if the Tigers want to truly earn respect from college football bettors and fans they will have to prove their worth this Saturday at Nebraska.
A good reputation counts for a lot in this world. If you have a one, people will overlook your flaws. If you don’t, they’ll overlook your positive attributes. That explains the betting odds for Saturday’s Big 12 matchup between the Missouri Tigers, the last undefeated team in the conference at 7-0 (5-2 ATS), and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS).
Nebraska is a 7½-point favorite at most books, even though Missouri just got finished knocking the Oklahoma Sooners out of first place in the BCS standings.
The Cornhuskers are undeniably the more popular brand in this matchup. This is one of the signature programs in college football, one of only seven FBS teams to reach 800 wins and not that far removed from their championship reign in the mid-1990s.
Missouri has also been around since ancient times, but the Tigers haven’t been to a major bowl game in 40 years. Nebraska won every single game in this Rivalry between 1979 and 2002. This is how reputations are made.
The truth of the matter is that Missouri is 4-3 SU and ATS over the past seven years. The Tigers program was in disrepair until Gary Pinkel was hired in 2001; by 2007, the Tigers were in the rankings and winning the Cotton Bowl. That team had players like Heisman contender Chase Daniels at quarterback and current NFL star Jeremy Maclin at wideout. But this could be Pinkel’s best season yet. Blaine Gabbert (11 TDs, three INTs) is a steady hand at the tiller, and the Mizzou defense is one of the best in the nation at 13.1 points allowed per game.
Nebraska had some lean years before Bo Pelini came on board in 2008, but the Cornhuskers are back in the national spotlight as if they had never left. Pelini took a chance this year on freshman Taylor Martinez, the first freshman QB ever to start Opening Day for the ‘Huskers, and Martinez has delivered 20 touchdowns: eight passing and 12 rushing.
Besides all that running, any doubts about Martinez’ ability to throw the ball were erased last week when he dumped five TD passes on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6 home dogs) in a 51-41 victory.
While casual fans drool over the Nebraska option offense, it’s the clash of styles that makes a matchup, and sharps are paying close attention to the pass defenses of both teams. The ‘Huskers are No. 1 in the FBS against the pass, according to the S&P efficiency stats at Football Outsiders (Mizzou is No. 5), with much of that success coming from Nebraska’s back seven.
But this is the same defense that was routed by Oklahoma State. The Tigers will have their opportunities to move the chains with Gabbert operating behind a strong offensive line.
The ‘Huskers defensive line might not be as dominant as it was last year with Ndamukong Suh at tackle, but the Tigers also got taken down a peg last week when tackle Dominique Hamilton broke his ankle and was lost for the season. This is a big blow to Mizzou’s run defense, which goes into this week ranked No. 14 on the S&P charts, one up on Nebraska at No. 15. Of the two quarterbacks, the mobile Martinez has the better chance of making a big splash on Saturday.
As good as the Tigers are, it’s entirely reasonable for the Cornhuskers to be favored at their Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. It’s the 7½ points that has heads turning. That’s up from seven points at the open; consensus reports showed some early action on Nebraska, but the extra half point appears to have stabilized the market.
Weather won’t play a factor in this game, as the forecast calls for clear skies and warm temperatures for kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. That half-point is hard to pass up.
If you prefer the ‘Huskers in this contest, make sure to shop around. They’re available at -7 at a handful of books as we go to press, and that price might not hold up against the weekend rush.
