SEC odds Showdown: LSU at Auburn
Only two things are for certain this Saturday afternoon at Jordan-Hare Stadium where Auburn will host LSU: Tigers will win and Tigers will lose. The critical SEC betting battle will also have an immediate impact on the next BCS rankings that presently list Auburn fourth and LSU sixth. The gang from Baton Rouge hit the road as 6-point underdogs to Auburn, and CBS will have the broadcast starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Are these really the two best teams in the SEC?
The Auburn Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) and the LSU Tigers (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) are the only two undefeated teams left in the conference, so they get bragging rights for the moment. The latest AP poll has Auburn ranked No. 5 in the nation and LSU No. 6, one spot ahead of the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide at 6-1. Doesn’t seem right somehow, does it?
Indeed it isn’t. Even though the Tide has a loss on its record, Alabama is sitting at No. 2 on the S&P ratings at Football Outsiders. At No. 3 are the South Carolina Gamecocks at 4-2. Eventually, you get to Auburn at No. 8 and LSU way down the list at No. 20. Brian Fremeau’s efficiency rankings tell a similar tale:
3. South Carolina
5. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. LSU
Those ratings will be shaken up soon enough. Auburn and LSU have a date this Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. And the betting odds say it will be LSU taking a tumble; Les Miles and his gang are 6-point underdogs with a total of 52 points. Bettors were 65-35 on Auburn at press time, according to the consensus reports.
There isn’t a lot of love out there for Miles these days. He deserves ample credit for LSU’s big 33-29 road win over the Florida Gators (-6½) in Week 6, which featured some excellent clock management on the winning touchdown drive. But then the Tigers came out flat in a 32-10 victory over the McNeese State Cowboys (+41½) of the Southland Conference. There have been enough problems with the LSU offense to drive the 'under' to a 5-1 record during the past six games, the win over the Gators being the lone exception.
The biggest problem in Baton Rouge is at quarterback. Neither Jordan Jefferson (two TDs, seven INTs) nor Jarrett Lee (two TDs, one INT) has played well enough to seize the No. 1 job, so Miles is using them in tandem. They combine to give the Tigers the No. 74-ranked pass offense in the FBS according to the S&P charts. LSU’s offense is thankfully geared toward the run, with Stevan Ridley (4.9 yards per carry) getting 20 touches per game and scoring six TDs.
This presents a very interesting matchup against the Auburn defense. These Tigers are only No. 30 in efficiency against the run and No. 54 against the pass, giving up enough points for the 'over' to cash in three times in the last four games.
Last week’s 65-43 triumph over the Arkansas Razorbacks (+3½ on the road) set an SEC record for most points scored in regulation. This is not the way things were supposed to unfold under coach Gene Chizik, who was the defensive coordinator for both Auburn and the Texas Longhorns during the past decade.
What Chizik does have at his disposal is a possible Heisman Trophy winner. Cameron Newton is tearing things up in his first year as Auburn’s starter, both through the air (13 TDs, five INTs) and on the ground (6.7 yards per carry, 12 TDs). He’s 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds of absolute terror to opposing defensive lines. As good as LSU is up front, collecting 21 sacks thus far, Newton and the Auburn rush represent a big step up in competition level.
It’s very possible Auburn can get to 11-0 before closing the season in Tuscaloosa with the annual Iron Bowl matchup against Alabama. But LSU’s dormant passing attack should find a few cracks in this Auburn defense, especially with safety Aairon Savage out for at least six weeks and cornerback T’Sharvan Bell listed as day-to-day, both with ankle injuries. Auburn has allowed 13 passing TDs, more than anyone in the SEC.
If that’s enough for you to put your trust in Miles, make sure to shop around – LSU was available at +6½ at a handful of locations as we went to press.
Only two things are for certain this Saturday afternoon at Jordan-Hare Stadium where Auburn will host LSU: Tigers will win and Tigers will lose. The critical SEC betting battle will also have an immediate impact on the next BCS rankings that presently list Auburn fourth and LSU sixth. The gang from Baton Rouge hit the road as 6-point underdogs to Auburn, and CBS will have the broadcast starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Are these really the two best teams in the SEC?
The Auburn Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) and the LSU Tigers (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) are the only two undefeated teams left in the conference, so they get bragging rights for the moment. The latest AP poll has Auburn ranked No. 5 in the nation and LSU No. 6, one spot ahead of the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide at 6-1. Doesn’t seem right somehow, does it?
Indeed it isn’t. Even though the Tide has a loss on its record, Alabama is sitting at No. 2 on the S&P ratings at Football Outsiders. At No. 3 are the South Carolina Gamecocks at 4-2. Eventually, you get to Auburn at No. 8 and LSU way down the list at No. 20. Brian Fremeau’s efficiency rankings tell a similar tale:
3. South Carolina
5. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. LSU
Those ratings will be shaken up soon enough. Auburn and LSU have a date this Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. And the betting odds say it will be LSU taking a tumble; Les Miles and his gang are 6-point underdogs with a total of 52 points. Bettors were 65-35 on Auburn at press time, according to the consensus reports.
There isn’t a lot of love out there for Miles these days. He deserves ample credit for LSU’s big 33-29 road win over the Florida Gators (-6½) in Week 6, which featured some excellent clock management on the winning touchdown drive. But then the Tigers came out flat in a 32-10 victory over the McNeese State Cowboys (+41½) of the Southland Conference. There have been enough problems with the LSU offense to drive the 'under' to a 5-1 record during the past six games, the win over the Gators being the lone exception.
The biggest problem in Baton Rouge is at quarterback. Neither Jordan Jefferson (two TDs, seven INTs) nor Jarrett Lee (two TDs, one INT) has played well enough to seize the No. 1 job, so Miles is using them in tandem. They combine to give the Tigers the No. 74-ranked pass offense in the FBS according to the S&P charts. LSU’s offense is thankfully geared toward the run, with Stevan Ridley (4.9 yards per carry) getting 20 touches per game and scoring six TDs.
This presents a very interesting matchup against the Auburn defense. These Tigers are only No. 30 in efficiency against the run and No. 54 against the pass, giving up enough points for the 'over' to cash in three times in the last four games.
Last week’s 65-43 triumph over the Arkansas Razorbacks (+3½ on the road) set an SEC record for most points scored in regulation. This is not the way things were supposed to unfold under coach Gene Chizik, who was the defensive coordinator for both Auburn and the Texas Longhorns during the past decade.
What Chizik does have at his disposal is a possible Heisman Trophy winner. Cameron Newton is tearing things up in his first year as Auburn’s starter, both through the air (13 TDs, five INTs) and on the ground (6.7 yards per carry, 12 TDs). He’s 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds of absolute terror to opposing defensive lines. As good as LSU is up front, collecting 21 sacks thus far, Newton and the Auburn rush represent a big step up in competition level.
It’s very possible Auburn can get to 11-0 before closing the season in Tuscaloosa with the annual Iron Bowl matchup against Alabama. But LSU’s dormant passing attack should find a few cracks in this Auburn defense, especially with safety Aairon Savage out for at least six weeks and cornerback T’Sharvan Bell listed as day-to-day, both with ankle injuries. Auburn has allowed 13 passing TDs, more than anyone in the SEC.
If that’s enough for you to put your trust in Miles, make sure to shop around – LSU was available at +6½ at a handful of locations as we went to press.
