NCAAF Odds: Buckeyes battle Wisconsin Badgers
Congratulations, Ohio State! You're the No. 1 team in the country...for now. The Buckeyes moved to the top spot in the human polls thanks to Alabama dropping a game in South Carolina a week ago. All signs point to the BCS computers making Ohio State's stay on top a short one. Terrelle Pryor and Co. will be out to give the BCS rankings something to think about Saturday evening on the road in Wisconsin.
We’re No. 5!
It looks like the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are about to be knocked from their perch – by a computer. They’re the No. 1 team in the polls, but on Sunday, the Buckeyes are projected to rank fifth in the BCS standings. Fifth. Not first.
Maybe the computer’s onto something. Now that the Buckeyes have reached the top of the polls, the college football betting market doesn’t want anything to do with them. Ohio State has a potential “trap” game coming up on Saturday (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Wisconsin Badgers. At the open, the Buckeyes were 6-point road faves. At press time, the spread was down to 3½ points.
You can’t blame people for being gun-shy about Ohio State. This is a classic letdown situation; one year ago, the Florida Gators entered Week 7 atop the AP rankings, only to barely squeak by the Arkansas Razorbacks (+24 on the road) in a 23-20 final. Then there was the 2007 season, when the No. 1 LSU Tigers lost 43-37 to the Kentucky Wildcats (+10 at home) in overtime. Handicappers have long memories.
But let’s take another look at the so-called reality on the ground. This Ohio State team is beating the holy tar out of its opponents. The Buckeyes only failed to cover the spread once, in a 24-13 road win over the Illinois Fighting Illini (+16). Every team wishes it could have an off-day like that. Although the Buckeyes schedule hasn’t been all that challenging so far, they’ve played well enough to top the S&P efficiency rankings at Football Outsiders, the leading stats gurus in the industry.
As for the Badgers, they may be No. 18 on the AP poll, but their 5-1 record SU is tempered by a 1-5 record ATS. Aside from a 70-3 blowout win over the Austin Peay Governors (+45) of the OVC, the Wisconsin defense has been able to keep a lid on things. The Minnesota Golden Gophers (+21½ road dogs) were able to score 23 points against the Badgers last week in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. That’s the last place team in the Big Ten.
The Badgers offense is covering up a lot of blemishes. They dropped 41 points on Minnesota in a balanced display of running and passing, more than enough to win the Axe. Running appears to be their true strength with John Clay (6.0 yards per carry) and James White (7.7 yards per carry) combining for 17 touchdowns. QB Scott Tolzien (seven TDs, two INTs) hasn’t consistently played as well as he did last year, and his receivers are dropping passes left and right. But the offense as a whole has done enough to win games.
Wisconsin’s profile doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The S&P ratings have the Badgers at No. 27 overall; if you prefer Brian Fremeau’s efficiency ratings, Ohio State is at No. 11 and Wisconsin is No. 32. Either way, the stats point toward a significant gap in ability between these two teams. Ohio State’s offense should have its way with the Badgers.
Is the letdown situation relevant enough to make it worth fading the Buckeyes? They certainly don’t make it any easier on themselves with their poor coverage on punt returns, and they’ve also had a couple of blocked field goal attempts. Wisconsin has very good special teams by comparison. But I’m not convinced this is why the betting odds in this matchup are shrinking. I think this has more to do with Terrelle Pryor’s reputation as a mistake-prone quarterback without a cannon for an arm.
Reputations are hard to shake. Pryor did indeed have some issues last year, but he’s a diligent worker on top of all that natural athletic ability. He’s cut down his mistakes, and he’s raised his yards per pass attempt from 7.10 to 8.82. Having a strong set of receivers and a competent offensive line makes Pryor’s job a lot easier, too. Perhaps he’ll open some eyes Saturday – or reinforce some stereotypes about scrambling quarterbacks.
Congratulations, Ohio State! You're the No. 1 team in the country...for now. The Buckeyes moved to the top spot in the human polls thanks to Alabama dropping a game in South Carolina a week ago. All signs point to the BCS computers making Ohio State's stay on top a short one. Terrelle Pryor and Co. will be out to give the BCS rankings something to think about Saturday evening on the road in Wisconsin.
We’re No. 5!
It looks like the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are about to be knocked from their perch – by a computer. They’re the No. 1 team in the polls, but on Sunday, the Buckeyes are projected to rank fifth in the BCS standings. Fifth. Not first.
Maybe the computer’s onto something. Now that the Buckeyes have reached the top of the polls, the college football betting market doesn’t want anything to do with them. Ohio State has a potential “trap” game coming up on Saturday (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Wisconsin Badgers. At the open, the Buckeyes were 6-point road faves. At press time, the spread was down to 3½ points.
You can’t blame people for being gun-shy about Ohio State. This is a classic letdown situation; one year ago, the Florida Gators entered Week 7 atop the AP rankings, only to barely squeak by the Arkansas Razorbacks (+24 on the road) in a 23-20 final. Then there was the 2007 season, when the No. 1 LSU Tigers lost 43-37 to the Kentucky Wildcats (+10 at home) in overtime. Handicappers have long memories.
But let’s take another look at the so-called reality on the ground. This Ohio State team is beating the holy tar out of its opponents. The Buckeyes only failed to cover the spread once, in a 24-13 road win over the Illinois Fighting Illini (+16). Every team wishes it could have an off-day like that. Although the Buckeyes schedule hasn’t been all that challenging so far, they’ve played well enough to top the S&P efficiency rankings at Football Outsiders, the leading stats gurus in the industry.
As for the Badgers, they may be No. 18 on the AP poll, but their 5-1 record SU is tempered by a 1-5 record ATS. Aside from a 70-3 blowout win over the Austin Peay Governors (+45) of the OVC, the Wisconsin defense has been able to keep a lid on things. The Minnesota Golden Gophers (+21½ road dogs) were able to score 23 points against the Badgers last week in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. That’s the last place team in the Big Ten.
The Badgers offense is covering up a lot of blemishes. They dropped 41 points on Minnesota in a balanced display of running and passing, more than enough to win the Axe. Running appears to be their true strength with John Clay (6.0 yards per carry) and James White (7.7 yards per carry) combining for 17 touchdowns. QB Scott Tolzien (seven TDs, two INTs) hasn’t consistently played as well as he did last year, and his receivers are dropping passes left and right. But the offense as a whole has done enough to win games.
Wisconsin’s profile doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The S&P ratings have the Badgers at No. 27 overall; if you prefer Brian Fremeau’s efficiency ratings, Ohio State is at No. 11 and Wisconsin is No. 32. Either way, the stats point toward a significant gap in ability between these two teams. Ohio State’s offense should have its way with the Badgers.
Is the letdown situation relevant enough to make it worth fading the Buckeyes? They certainly don’t make it any easier on themselves with their poor coverage on punt returns, and they’ve also had a couple of blocked field goal attempts. Wisconsin has very good special teams by comparison. But I’m not convinced this is why the betting odds in this matchup are shrinking. I think this has more to do with Terrelle Pryor’s reputation as a mistake-prone quarterback without a cannon for an arm.
Reputations are hard to shake. Pryor did indeed have some issues last year, but he’s a diligent worker on top of all that natural athletic ability. He’s cut down his mistakes, and he’s raised his yards per pass attempt from 7.10 to 8.82. Having a strong set of receivers and a competent offensive line makes Pryor’s job a lot easier, too. Perhaps he’ll open some eyes Saturday – or reinforce some stereotypes about scrambling quarterbacks.