EP36's Hot Tub Time Slot Machine

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 11:51 AM

Record: 51-44-1 [+3.49]

12.11.10

[12:00pm ET] VILLANOVA-APPALACHIAN STATE OVER 54 [-105]
A high quality FCS playoff match-up between the defending champs in Villanova and the top seed in Appalachian State. Both teams feature a stud offensively with Villanova getting back WR Matt Szczur back last week against Stephen F. Austin. What did he do? Oh just f-ed around for 11 catches, 128 yards and a TD along with 68 rushing yards. He also adds a dynamic element to their return game. Villanova likes to pound the ball on the ground as well as they averaged 192 ypg rushing. That should match-up well against an Appalachian State team that struggled at times [157 ypg] to stop the run. 'Nova averaged just over 27 ppg but did miss Szczur for a big chunk of the season with an ankle injury. Appalachian State features dual threat QB DeAndre Pressley who is fresh off a dominant 264 yard rushing performance in the Mountaineers 42-14 romp over Western Illinois last week. He poses a big challenge against Villanova's 8th ranked rush defense. I think Appalachian State will test the Wildcats early with the run to see if they can have success to set up some bigger plays in the passing game where Villanova is more susceptible to being beaten. Villanova adapted well last week against SFA's passing attack that gouged them early, but facing a dual threat QB doesn't give them the luxury of dropping back eight into coverage as they did at times last week. Appalachian State has only been held under 30 twice this season, once against Florida and the other time against Georgia Southern on the road. They are playing at home today where they have put up seven straight games with 34 or more points. Villanova showed some explosiveness on offense itself last week with 54 points and I think although they may contain Appalachian State a little better than some teams have, they will still need to score in the mid to upper 20s to give themselves a shot. For me, that means points on the board and the over.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 01:52 PM

[2:30pm ET] ARMY-NAVY OVER 53 [-105]
The last four years this game has been an easy under winner, but I think there should be some points on the board in this classic match-up. Navy's offense has been humming late in the season unlike it has in awhile with the Midshipmen putting up seven straight games of 28 points or more. Their defense has also been somewhat iffy this season with the opposition scoring 17 or more in nine of eleven games. Army's attack we know is also predicated on the run. The Black Knights had a streak of ten straight games scoring 20 or more broken last time against Notre Dame. With Navy's D a little questionable at times, I expect Army can find some points. Army's defense had issues against the ground game of Air Force, giving up 42 points and 285 yards on the ground. Navy should be salivating at the opportunity for their triple-option attack to churn out a big day and hopefully an entertaining game.

jincka · 12-11-10, 02:03 PM

like the army/navy play .... good luck

svenodds · 12-11-10, 02:52 PM

nice one on the Villanova over

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 05:05 PM

That interception by Army at the goal line pretty much slammed the door on the over me thinks. If Navy had gotten into the end zone on that drive, would have had a good shot in the 4th. Now have to hope for some shenanigans.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-17-10, 07:39 PM

Record: 52-45-1 [+3.44]

NEW MEXICO BOWL: UTEP-BYU OVER 50 [-105]
BYU has been hot down the stretch to earn a Bowl bid at 6-6, while UTEP has been the reverse, going 1-5 after a 5-1 start. Let's start with the offenses. Both teams have a good blend of the pass and the run. The Miners have scored 21 or more in four of their last five. BYU has done better than that with 40 or more in three of their last four. UTEP has had some major difficulties defensively, allowing over 200 yards passing and rushing per game over their last three. BYU should find success against this defense. The Cougars meanwhile have been stout as a scoring defense, giving up 20 or less in their last five. While UTEP may find it tough against this defense, they have scored 20 or more in nine of 12 this season. I think if they hit 20, BYU will do the rest and BYU certainly could do much more.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-18-10, 11:43 AM

FCS SEMIFINAL: GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7.5 [-105]
Georgia Southern is on the road again as they battle Delaware for a trip to the FCS final against Eastern Washington. These are two very similar teams stats wise. They both run the ball very effectively, but Georgia Southern features the triple option which could be a deciding factor. Both teams were among the top two teams in their respective conferences in shutting down the run, but the key here is Delaware has not had any looks at an offense like the triple option this season. Delaware gets the edge at QB with former Penn Stater Pat Devlin at the helm. The Hens haven't left home for their two playoff games and won both by double digits. An interesting common opponent for both was William & Mary. The Hens lost to W&M by a point at home, while Ga.Southern beat them by double digits on the road in the playoffs. Ga.Southern is hot with six straight wins and won't be afraid of another road game seeing as they are 6-2 on the road this season with one of those losses by just six points to FBS bowl-bound Navy. If Ga.Southern has their triple option attack working and can get a turnover or two, I think they stick close and could even pull off an upset.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-18-10, 01:19 PM

Ack! Ga.Southern made a big stop to hold Delaware to three to be down 10-0 at the half, but they were in scoring position after a big kickoff return and they fumbled to end the half. Sheesh.

ebbearsfb1 · 12-18-10, 01:31 PM

un real eagle... im on georgia southern spread and ml.... 2 times in side the 10 0 points

ebbearsfb1 · 12-18-10, 02:12 PM

georgia southern bunch of pussies cant hold onto the ball go back to the south you bums

EaglesPhan36 · 12-18-10, 02:44 PM

Turnovers were a killer. Got it back within 7 at 17-10 and then they got driven quick to fall back 24-10. Got the ball and promptly turned it over for a 4th time.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-18-10, 05:14 PM

Record: 53-46-1 [+3.39]

HUMANITARIAN BOWL: NORTHERN ILLINOIS-FRESNO STATE OVER 57 [-105]
It'd be easy to take Fresno here and it's not a bad pick with NIU working with an interim head coach, but I think this NIU team is going to be motivated. They have their failure in the MAC Championship gnawing at their brains, not to mention the duds they have laid in bowl games the last few seasons. Their big problem in the MAC Championship was an inability to do what they do, run the football. Fresno though has had trouble stopping the run all season, giving up 141 ypg. Illinois steamrolled the Bulldogs for 318 yards in the season finale. NIU should be licking their chops to gash this Fresno defense. The plus of the MAC Championship is that the passing game proved solid for NIU, netting over 300 yards. For Fresno, their offense gets a boost with a mostly healthy RB Robbie Rouse back. If he finds holes, that sets up an underrated passing game with Colburn to move the ball. NIU's defense gets a lot of praise for their numbers, but this will be one of the better teams they've played all season. Fresno has scored 23 or more in 11 of their 12 games and over 30 in seven of those. NIU was a scoring machine prior to their MAC Championship letdown where they scored just 21. The three games before that, they totaled a whopping 195 points. If the Huskies can get off to a good start and not feel sorry for themselves, I think Fresno's recent run of high scoring bowl games will continue.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-20-10, 01:13 PM

Record: 53-46-2 [+3.39]

EaglesPhan36 · 12-21-10, 05:03 PM

BEEF O' BRADY'S BOWL: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +120
Interesting clash here between Louisville of the Big East & Southern Miss of C-USA. Louisville as with most Big East squads is a "power" team on offense with a reputation for solid defense. They love to run the ball with Bilal Powell and will look to soften up the Southern Miss defense for some big plays with play action. For me, I think the Louisville defense while solid stats-wise may not be quite the unit to shut down this diverse offense. Remember, Louisville's numbers have been built against weaker offenses in the Big East that don't provide the pop of these -USA juggernauts. Southern Miss had its issues defensively, giving up 40 or more points in half their games. You can look at that two ways. Number one, they're not good on defense or number two, C-USA had some very good and diverse offenses that scored tons of points. I think it's some of both. C-USA had four of the top 30 scoring teams in the country, but also had four of the bottom eight defenses as far as PPG. Southern Miss hasn't always been horrible on defense this year and their rushing defense has been fairly solid. I think if Louisville is forced into uncomfortable throwing situations, Southern Miss' D can do some things. Offensively, the Golden Eagles average over 200 yards passing and rushing and will challenge a Louisville defense that while good statistically has not faced a diverse threat like this offense all season. Southern Miss has some big time play makers on offense in QB Austin Davis and WR DeAndre Brown along with a stable of RBs. I think even with a weaker defense, Southern Miss has the ability to make more big plays and outscore Louisville. If they run the ball well and don't turn it over and can utilize a bend-don't break defense, I like them to score the win tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-21-10, 11:21 PM

Southern Miss

Make enough mistakes yet? They did get screwed on that replay though, but they didn't deserve to win with all the dumb ass mistakes on special teams.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-23-10, 12:52 PM

POINSETTIA BOWL: NAVY +3 [-110]
Damp turf could make it harder for San Diego State's potent passing attack to make bigger plays due to footing. That could bode well for the triple option of Navy. SDSU played a similar squad in Air Force during the season and won by two, but gave up over 300 yards rushing to the Fly Boys and their triple option-type attack. I'll go with the Middies here and take the points just in case.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-24-10, 02:45 AM

HAWAII BOWL: HAWAII-TULSA OVER 73.5 [-105]
Hawaii's home numbers this this year are staggering, averaging 45 ppg on 587 ypg. They get a home game here for the bowl against a Tulsa team that gives up over 305 ypg. If Hawaii doesn't turn it over, no reason to believe they can't get that average or better. Tulsa is versatile on offense with over 200 ypg passing and rushing. The Golden Hurricane have at least 28 points in 11 of 12 this season and have given up 50 three times this season with Southern Miss hitting that # last time out. Hawaii has laid eggs in three successive bowls. This could be the year they at least put up some numbers even if they falter in the final scoreline. If it's not a shootout, well then Santa might as well pack his fat ass back in that sleigh and go dump a load of coal in the collective mouth of America. We'll see points here and hopefully some nice Christmas Eve Cash! Merry Christmas hoes!

gilbert91016 · 12-24-10, 10:20 AM

Love the over. Bol

EaglesPhan36 · 12-25-10, 01:13 AM

Record: 54-48-2 [+2.34]

Merry Christmas fools.

beefcake · 12-25-10, 12:06 PM

nice hit there pardner..merry x-mas

EaglesPhan36 · 12-27-10, 02:13 PM

INDEPENDENCE BOWL: AIR FORCE-GEORGIA TECH OVER 55 [-105]
It's option-rushing football at its finest in Louisiana today. Two of the top rushing teams in D1 play meeting here. Both average over 300 ypg on the ground, but both also have issues stopping the run. Air Force is yielding 190 ypg on the ground, while Ga.Tech gives up 157. Air Force did face Navy earlier this year, holding the Middies to 6 points and around 200 yards rushing. Tech did not face a team with the option pedigree of Air Force this season. The Jackets have given up at least 20 points in 10 of 12 games this season. Air Force has beein in a groove with 35 or more in their last three. Tech's offense has done well in keeping up with their defensive woes by scoring 21 or more in 10 of 12. If both teams hang onto the ball today, I think we'll see plenty of movement up and down the field via the run which should give both chances to score. Big thing today will be converting red zone opps into TDs, not FGS. Tech has a good kicker, Air Force does not and that would be a bug-a-boo.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-27-10, 06:23 PM

Record: 54-49-2 [+1.29]

Indy Bowl blows. If the OVER hits in this one, I'll give away all my SBR points [188] in Player's talk tonight in a most entertaining fashion. No way in hell it hits though, so counting it as a loss.

Ruff · 12-27-10, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Record: 54-49-2 [+1.29]

Indy Bowl blows. If the OVER hits in this one, I'll give away all my SBR points [188] in Player's talk tonight in a most entertaining fashion. No way in hell it hits though, so counting it as a loss.

/agree
getem next time

EaglesPhan36 · 12-28-10, 10:03 AM

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL: NC STATE-WEST VIRGINIA OVER 48 [-115]
I really think the books did a favor by setting this total where it's at. It's entirely based on the belief that West Virginia's defense is as good as their stats. I go back to the Beef o' Brady's Bowl though with Louisville who also had great defensive stats ... also built against weak Big East offenses. I'll admit, WVU has talent on defense, BUT they did not face any team that compares to the Wolfpack in terms of a dynamic passing attack. NC State ranks #18 in passing yards averaged behind Russell Wilson. The Wolfpack have scored at least 27 points in 11 of their 12 games this season. They have also given up over 20 in seven of those. The Mountaineers offense came to life late 35 or more in three of their last four. WVU does need Noel Devine and the rush offense to have a solid day, but Geno Smith might be the key to putting up points against State which has given up an average of 300 ypg passing in their last three. Much has been made about Coach Bill Stewart being forced out and how it will effect WVU. I see it as a rallying point in what effectively is a changing of the guard in spite of him being back in 2011 to guide the "coach in waiting." WVU has come up against an ACC foe twice under Stewart with OVERs hitting in both and OVER has hit in five of the last six WVU bowl games.

INSIGHT BOWL: MISSOURI [-140]
Like most of the world, I will go against Iowa here with their suspension issues. With RB Adam Robinson, I'd give the Hawkeyes a shot here against a Mizzou team that does struggle against the run at times. Without him, Mizzou should be able to concentrate on hassling Ricky Stanzi and an Iowa offense that has not reached 20 points in three of the last four. The Tigers should take advantage of a stumbling Iowa defense that has not been able to stop the run or pass down the stretch. If Blaine Gabbert is effective and not turnover prone for Mizzou, I think the Tigers win.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-29-10, 01:08 AM

Fukking brutal. Into the red. Can't believe Mizzou fukked that up. It's all downhill from here!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-29-10, 11:03 AM

Record: 54-51-2 [-1.26]

Probably gonna be good fade material today, so look for the picks in a bit.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-29-10, 03:57 PM

TEXAS BOWL: BAYLOR-ILLINOIS OVER 63 [-110]
Both teams had issues defensively down the stretch. The Illini gave up 25 or more in four straight, Baylor gave up 42 or more in four of their last five. Illinois is predicated on the run offensively. Baylor is giving up over 150 ypg on the ground and around 200 ypg when not playing at home. Illinois will face a multi-faceted offense with RG3 at the helm. Go to the Michigan game and Denard Robinson to see what this sort of QB can do to the Illini. 45 points given up in regulation to the Wolverines. Baylor has hit for 24 or more in nine straight and 30 or better in seven of those. BU had four totals set at 62 or more this season, all four hit OVER. Illinois has been rolling offensively with 33 or more in six of their last eight overall. I think the key is Illinois either having a lead or maintaining contact to keep their run game as a huge factor. If they do and Baylor continues their show, I can see both teams hitting for 30 or better.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-04-11, 12:15 AM

Alright, let's try this again. You can see how inept I ended last season by looking back because of a shitty bowl season. Anywho, first up on Sunday.

9.4.11

[8:00pm ET] SMU +16 [-107]
I think SMU is going to be geared up for this one, just like they get geared up every year for TCU. Remember, this is a SMU squad that led TCU in the 3rd quarter of their game last year. Many of SMU's key offensive players return, including QB Kyle Padron, the O-line and some quality skill players. They also return several key players in their front seven which will be key against A&M's solid attack. The Aggies defense still has some question marks to me and while I don't think SMU is going to win this by any stretch, if they can get a solid effort from their offense .. I think they have a legit shot to keep it within two scores or much tighter.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-08-11, 04:37 PM

2011 RECORD: 0-1 [-1.07]

[9/8] OKLAHOMA STATE-ARIZONA: DEFENSE OR SPECIAL TEAMS SCORES A TD [+145]
Weeden threw two pick sixes last week for Okie State and the Cowboys scored a pick six in the bowl game meeting between these two last December. OSU picked off Foles three times in that game. Arizona has a new O-line this season and with both offenses pass happy, expecting one of the defenses to make this a possibility with an INT return potentially.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-11, 02:32 PM

[9/9] Florida International +3.5 [-105]

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-11, 08:12 PM

[9/9] Missouri QB James Franklin Total Rushes Over 12.5 [-115]

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-11, 09:45 PM

Finally hit the Win Column with FIU! Here's my early lineup on Saturday. Good luck kids.

[9/10] 12:00pm ET: Wisconsin-Oregon State Over 57.5 [-105]
Badgers should roll up some big points again. Beavers I think just need to get 17 points or so to allow this to get done.

3:30pm ET: Virginia Tech-East Carolina Over 63.5 [-105]
Last year's meeting saw 76 points scored. The Hokies rolled up 66 on Appalachian State, while ECU got jumped by South Carolina for 56. Would be shocked if this one doesn't eclipse 70 again this year. Hokies should run all over the Pirates and Dominique Davis likely will get enough garbage time movement to get ECU 20 points or better.

6:00pm ET: Stony Brook +7.5 [-120]
Stony Brook was unfortunate not to get the upset of UTEP last week. Buffalo is a mediocre MAC team that will look to exploit Stony Brook's secondary, while the Sea Wolves should feel they can run and control the clock against the Bulls defense.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-10-11, 01:03 AM

2011 RECORD: 2-2 [-0.07]

Tonight's two wins gets the roll going. Keep on keepin on tomorrow.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-10-11, 01:22 PM

2nd Half: Mississippi State-Auburn Over 29.5 [-110]

EaglesPhan36 · 09-10-11, 03:52 PM

Getting my anal region kicked today. Booking Stony Brook @ +10 now. And adding ...

[9/9] Houston Team Total Over 43 [-110]
North Texas' defense is just awful. They gave up 41 to FIU who seemed to call the dogs off in the 2nd half after going up big in the 1st half. With Houston believing itself to be a BCS worth team, style points and points in general should always be big in their minds. Also opportunities for Keenum to roll up his Heisman numbers. Anything less than a nickel for the Coogs is an upset.