EP36's Hot Tub Time Slot Machine

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 42-34-1 [+4.97]

Air Force about made me throw up. 35 points. They fumble in the 1st quarter going inside the 5 to score and then have the ball driving down the field into the red zone at the end of the game and of course just kneel it at the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.19.10

[9:30pm ET] BOISE STATE-FRESNO STATE UNDER 66 [+100]
Touchy try here as this could easily go to 80, but I am going to say the potential precipitation and game plan for Fresno State keeps this just under. Fresno has one chance to stay close here. Run the ball and keep Boise off the field. Problem is once Boise is on the field, they should be able to score quickly against a porous Fresno defense. We'll see if Fresno can control the clock a little, I am thinking just enough to keep this in the low 60s.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.20.10

[12:00pm ET] NORTHERN ILLINOIS-BALL STATE OVER 53 [-105]
NIU crushes opponents for 261 yards per game on the ground and Ball State is giving up 176 per game, recipe for another big Huskies rushing game. NIU has scored 28 or better in seven straight and 31 or better in six of those. Ball State has consistently scored 14 or more all season with a 28 ppg average at home. NIU has been susceptible to both the run and the pass on the road, so I think we'll see some points here.

[4:00pm ET] UAB-MEMPHIS OVER 58 [-105]
Two horrible defenses that combine to yield 74 points per game between the two. Memphis' offense has been poor all season, but they have at least put up 13 or better in four straight. UAB meanwhile can score, especially at home where they average 29 ppg on 464 yards per game. The Blazers scored 35 or more in two of their last three in regulation. They have also given up 28 or more in nine of then this year.

[7:30pm ET] RUTGERS +13.5 [-105]
Rutgers-Cincy doesn't seem like it's a two TD game to me. Cincy has trouble cashing in opportunities after moving the ball, so I think Rutgers can stay within this number if they keep their turnovers to a minimum.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 43-34-1 [+5.97]

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck today ep

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

ep love army to beat nd today +8

[EaglesPhan36]

[10:30pm ET] HAWAII-SAN JOSE STATE OVER 60 [-105]
Gut play here that Hawaii is going to unload on San Jose State after their frustrating loss to Boise where they had season lows in points and passing yards. The Spartans defense has been plenty giving all season, yielding 34 ppg and almost 40 on the road. Offensively, they have at least put up some points of late - 13 or better in five of the last six. They have been able to throw the ball and that is still a weakness of the Hawaii defense. Think this should get out of hand and San Jose can do enough garbage work to push it past this big number.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 44-37-1 [+3.82]

Frickin Hawaii threw a lot of picks that screwed potential scoring drives, fell short on that last one and not a great day on Saturday.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.26.10

[2:00pm ET] SMU-EAST CAROLINA OVER 70 [-105]

[EaglesPhan36]

[6:30pm ET] SOUTHERN MISS-TULSA OVER 66.5 [-105]
Let's go with another C-USA shootout. Two superb offenses that average 75 points between the two. Both defenses have their deficiencies with Southern Miss struggling against the pass lately and Tulsa struggling against the pass all season. Both will try to balance up on offense. Southern Miss has 40 or more in six of their last seven. Tulsa has 28 or more in five straight.

[gilbert91016]

What's u r take on Boise over?

[EaglesPhan36]

Not sold on that one. I prefer Boise -13.5. Still considering it for tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 46-37-1 [+5.82]

Love those shitty C-USA defenses.

[EaglesPhan36]

[10:15pm ET] BOISE STATE -13.5 [-108]
This is obviously a huge statement game for Boise State. The Broncos play their final regular season game against a ranked opponent on the road with an obvious chance to push past TCU into 3rd in the BCS standings. With both Auburn and Oregon also struggling and having another game on their slate, it's the Broncos chance to put a stamp on their season and a question mark in the minds of voters for the final polls. This is easily the biggest test for Nevada against a Boise defense that has been dominant against everyone. Key will be keeping Kapernick from being a dual threat. I think Boise will challenge him to beat them in the air and contain him on the ground. That's been their M.O. against him the past couple of meetings. You look at common opponents here and Boise certainly has been more dominant, albeit at home over Nevada being on the road. I think this all comes down to red zone defense. Nevada has given up a lot of yards, but made big stops. If Boise converts for TDs and not FGs, I think they cover.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.27.10

[12:00pm ET] INDIANA-PURDUE OVER 53.5 [-105]
Purdue is in off their best showing offensively in a fold-job against Michigan State, scoring 31 but giving up 35. They face an Indiana defense that has had issues against both the run and the pass. Look for Purdue to try and churn the run to set up some play action. IU has produced plenty of yards every game, but has not consistently turned that into points. They average around 27, but have been held in check by solid Big 10 defenses. Purdue is not one of those, giving up better than 27 in the last five games in a row.

[3:30pm ET] UAB-RICE OVER 67 [-105]
Another big total in Conference USA, but another one that looks beatable with two defenses that give up a combined average of 70 ppg. UAB has given up 28 or more in all their road games this year, while Rice has now scored 31 or better in their last three at home. The Owls have been point magnets in the last three weeks with 138 points scored and 156 given up. Nothing to play for here, but points so let's see some offense.

[7:45pm ET] GEORGIA TECH +14 [-105]
Neither the Jackets or the Dawgs have had a great season, but both may wind up bowl eligible if UGA wins Saturday. Road team has been an ATS dream in this series, 10-1-1 over the last 12 meetings. You have to go back seven years to the last time the margin of victory in this game was over 14 points. Tech hasn't lost by more than 14 in any road game this season. Tech isn't as good without Nesbitt, but UGA isn't consistent either as evident by their 5-6 record.

[8:00pm ET] HOUSTON +9 [-110]
Cougars have faltered down the stretch while trying to secure bowl eligibility. Texas Tech has done so. Both defenses are about as reliable as a condom riddled with pinholes, so expect plenty of scoring here. If Houston can rediscover some semblence of a running game and avoid turning the ball over more than once or twice, I think they will have a chance to keep it close.

[gilbert91016]

What do u think off the Huston/Texas tech over?

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Nice picks good luck ep!

[EaglesPhan36]

What do u think off the Huston/Texas tech over?

Monster # at 71, but I couldn't bet an under with those two defenses if the total was 80. I think the OVER has a solid shot in that one.

[EaglesPhan36]

[4:00pm ET] TCU TEAM TOTAL OVER 50 [-110]
I think TCU is motivated and focused today against New Mexico. Patterson has had two weeks to fire up the troops after the "lackluster" San Diego State finish that had many talking about Boise jumping TCU for 3rd in the BCS. That is no longer a concern, but there's still some talk of LSU potentially bumping into that position if they can get a big win against Arkansas. Plus the idiot Ohio State President's comments. I think Patterson had plenty of motivating factors to work with already this week + last night's Boise result, this TCU squad will punish New Mexico. Consider they had 34 at the half against San Siego State and only scored six 2nd half points and then the 35 the defense gave up, surely was unacceptable to the defensive-minded Patterson. New Mexico is one of the worst rush defenses in the country, so TCU should be able to pound the ball on the ground and they should also have success in the air. I think TCU's defense could account for a score or two as well today + TCU has the chance to make history today, going to the Rose Bowl! And still the outside shot to get into the BCS Championship should Oregon or Auburn falter. My alma mater wins big today and I think even with this big number out there, they get into the 50s to put an exclamation point on a 2nd straight undefeated regular season. Perfect football weather in Albuquerque.

[EaglesPhan36]

[10:00pm ET] IDAHO-FRESNO STATE OVER 58.5 [-105]
Idaho has an offense tailor-made for being behind in games as they mainly have success through the air [8th in the country]. That should be a good thing again today as Fresno State is likely to come out angry after laying an egg vs. Boise State last week. Idaho will be motivated themselves in need of a win to gain bowl eligibility, even though they have a 13th game next week to try again. Fresno has leaked points the last three games, yielding 120 over that span. Yes, that did feature stalwarts in Boise & Nevada, but Louisiana Tech also lit them up for 34. Fresno's offense had been stellar until last week vs. Boise with seven of their previous nine seeing them score 30+ points. Idaho has had issues vs. the run & pass most of the season, giving up around 29 ppg. They shut down a weak Utah State team last time out, but prior to that had yielded 45 or more in four of the previous five. On senior night, Fresno should put forth a strong effort and I think Idaho has enough in their playbook to keep pace for a bit to push this one towards an over. I think if Idaho gets into the 20s, book this.

[gilbert91016]

Looking at MIAMI OHI/ NO ILLINOIS OVER 54 this week what do u think?

[EaglesPhan36]

Hard to go against NIU not scoring a ton again, but Miami does have good rush D numbers .. albeit they have not faced anything close to the Huskies attack. Only thing that worries me some is Miami's lack of a dynamic attack as they run a little more now with the redshirt frosh at QB. Still, NIU looks almost unstoppable and might do alot of the damage themselves.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 49-41-1 [+4.64]

[gilbert91016]

Agree whit you

[gilbert91016]

I think if Miami can at least score 10 to 14 points Theres no way It should stay under

[gilbert91016]

Do u like anything so far?

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck tonight buddy!

[EaglesPhan36]

12.4.10

[12:00pm ET] RUTGERS-WEST VIRGINIA OVER 44.5 [-105]
Rutgers has been getting drilled over the last month with 28 points or more allowed in four of their last five. Rutgers has not been stout offensively, but have routinely put up 13-14 points. West Virginia's defense will be tough to crack though as the Mountaineers allow only 12 ppg. The plus though is that Rutgers has been better offensively on the road this season.

[2:00pm ET] TROY-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 55.5 [-105]
Always dangerous to go UNDER with a flimsy Troy defense, but FAU has only scored more than 21 in three of their eleven games this season. Troy has put up 30+ in eight of their eleven games, but have failed to hit that mark in the past two weeks. At home, FAU is only giving up a bit over 17 ppg. FAU's offense is not prolific enough to take full advantage of Troy's weak D, so I expect this one will be very close to the total but will fall a couple of points short if FAU's defense can keep Troy under 30.

[beefcake]

Ep is there any sport you dont cap? Good luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

I rarely dabble in NBA beefcake, that is my kryptonite. I do props during the playoffs which I have done decent at, but otherwise the NBA bleeds me and I choose not to get involved!

[EaglesPhan36]

[3:30pm ET] OREGON STATE-OREGON OVER 62 [-105]
Let's start with an impressive number, in the last eight meetings in the Civil War, the OVER has hit all eight times. That includes 69 points or more in five of the last six meetings. Everyone knows what is at stake here for Oregon and to a lesser extent, Oregon State in gaining bowl eligibility with one of the greatest upsets in the history of this clash. Problem for the Beavers is that without James Rodgers, they have become less potent on offense. They have scored 30+ in three of the six games without him, but scored 14 or less in the other three. The Ducks got back to their explosive ways against Arizona last week with 48, but did show some vulnerability against the pass again. Oregon has scored 42 or more in ten of eleven this season and topped 50 in six. Defensively they have given up at least 13 in nine of eleven. Oregon State must find a way to pass the ball I think to give this a a real good shot to happen. Even if they don't, the Ducks should be out to put their mark on the regular season and book a BCS spot with a big performance.

[EaglesPhan36]

F-ing Oregon. Missing XPs, FGs and stupid penalties. OSU's QB is playing like a freshman. All this "best 2nd half team in the country" hype needs to be lived up for Oregon if this is going to have a shot in hell.

Troy & FAU is screwed. 30 points through 3 quarters and there's about to be a 4th TD scored in the first HALF of the 4th quarter to cash the over. Screwy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Heh. Troy finished under somehow at 44-7. I hope Oregon chokes and loses. I haven't watched them a ton this year, but why would you run sweeps toward the short side of the field so much? Speed is your greatest asset and you put your speed into the smallest space possible, seems like shitty play calling. No way this over gets close.

[EaglesPhan36]

[8:00pm ET] UCONN TEAM TOTAL OVER 20 [-115]
South Florida has had some issues against the run recently, allowing more than 40 yards more than their season average over the course of their last three games. They have given up at least 20 in five of their last six as well. UConn has been steady offensively behind their power running game with 20 points or more in seven of their eleven games, including six of their last eight. USF may or may not have BJ Daniels running the show, even so their offense has been turnover prone at times and could sputter to give the Huskies some extra opportunities.

[EaglesPhan36]

[10:30pm ET] HAWAII-UNLV UNDER 65.5 [-105]