EP36's Hot Tub Time Slot Machine

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't claim to be a good college football capper, but like most, I love the sport and want to track my plays in one thread this year. Devised my money management system for the season and that is to make no more than one play per time slot on any given college football game day. Saturdays usually have the early kickoffs, mid-afternoon, prime time and late night. So that should keep me in check. Keeps the # of plays to a minimum and keeps from chasing ... if I can follow my own rules. Good luck to you this season and feel free to comment if you feel the need on any picks, always appreciate criticism if it's constructive or destructive.

9.2.10 [8pm ET] FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. UAB OVER 48.5 [-110]
Two very poor defenses last year. FAU has a good returning offense again. UAB is the question, having to replace their QB. If they can establish the run though they may not need much as FAU was awful vs. the run last year.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.2.10 [11pm ET] USC vs. HAWAII OVER 50.5 [-110]
Beginning of the Lane Kiffin era. With sanctions keeping USC from a bowl game, I'm expecting everyone's favorite asshole to rub people the wrong way with lopsided results when possible. Hawaii is a team that may have the defensive backs to keep the Trojans aerial attack from totally exploding, but the middle of their defense is soft and can be run on. Expect the SC stable of RBs to have big games tonight. Hawaii could have a little more success on offense than some might expect with USC breaking in four new starters at DB. Their pass happy offense will show the Trojans just how far they need to go against the pass or how well off they might be already.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-0 [+2.00]

[FR3SH like UgHH]

good shit eagles!!

didnt play either had a teaser w/ mtsu and pitt n then usc -20 went 1-1

keep doin it!

[EaglesPhan36]

9.3.10 [5pm ET] VILLANOVA vs. TEMPLE 1st HALF UNDER 24 [-110]
Lots of expectation on Temple this year after making a bowl last year. Villanova is the defending FCS Champion. Last year's game was a low scoring one at the half, 10-0 before the 2nd half erupted into scoring with several turnovers keying Villanova's 27-24 win. Think Temple will be on a mission to not let Villanova repeat that feat. Expecting their defense to look to put the screws to Nova's versatile QB. Temple should rely on RB Bernard Pierce to control the clock and move the chains with their QB still not the best in the world and prone to some mistakes last season in limited action.

[MUHerd37]

Nice job lat night Eagles. I also had the over in the USC.Hawaii game. That game was crazy as hell. Also had UAB ML and really got hosed. Got Temple -3.5 tonight. I like your 1st half play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I think USC is gonna struggle against good passing teams this season to start with.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-0-1 [+2.00]

Can't believe that pushed. 53 yard FG eh? Ah well, better than a loss.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.3.10: ARIZONA vs. TOLDEO 2nd HALF OVER 27 [-110]
You get the feeling Arizona can go whatever they please, through the air, on the ground. I'm expecting at least two more scores from them and Toledo may be good for some garbage time scoring or at least turning the ball over and giving the Wildcats another short field to work with.

[Brian891]

Took toledo over 21 TT. That unbelievably awful throw on 3rd down pretty much killed my chances. Good luck on the over.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah this one is screwed. Toledo stalls at the Arizona 4. Arizona throws an INT at the Toledo 10. Points left on the field.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-1-1 [+0.90]

[EaglesPhan36]

9.4.10 [12pm ET] MIAMI (OH) vs. FLORIDA OVER 53.5 [-110]
Gators love scheduled cupcakes to open with to get their confidence zooming. This year is no different against MAC doormat Miami. The big story here will be QB John Brantley. Expect the Gators to give him a chance to put up big numbers to begin to step out of the daunting shadow of Tebow. Miami gave up a whopping 34 ppg last season and Florida has scored 118 points in their last two season openers. It may be a different looking offense for Florida, but against a poor Miami defense, the results should be the same. Expect Florida to get into the mid 40s or better. If Miami can get a TD in this one or better, shouldn't be a problem to push past this number.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

GOOD LUCK EP

[MTek]

Props to EP36 I follow his soccer plays and he's generally a good capper

Hadent even noticed the Miami (oh) / Fla over til this post...Im on it !!!

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm hoping Meyer let's Brantley stay in until they have 54 points themselves. Kickoff approaching!

[ji03]

Yeah, hopefully Brantley will get a lot of field time to help him later in the season.

[EaglesPhan36]

Florida's offense looks god awful. Their whole idea was this dink & dunk shit would get their WRs open in space to make big plays. So far it's gotten 19 yards on 7 completions.


I"m writing this over off already. No way in hell from what I've seen that Florida is going to score enough to do this unless their defense scores 4 or 5 TDs.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Florida defense is single handedly giving this some life.

[ouman101]

The offense is picking up a little bit. Its not dead yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.4.10 [3:30pm ET] PURDUE vs. NOTRE DAME OVER 54 [-110]
Obviously a lot of eyes will be on this one to see what Brian Kelly's squad is going to be able to accomplish this season at Notre Dame. Crist leads the spread offense at QB for the Irish and he's still got some solid targets to throw too. I would expect Kelly wants to make a statement in this game and will be looking to let his offense roll up big points. Purdue should be fun to watch with Miami transfer Robert Marve set to take over at QB. He should infuse this team with a great dual threat at QB in an offense that should also have the ability to make big plays and score points. Both defenses had their issues last season and I expect the different aspects of each offense this season to have a leg up early on the defenses in this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.4.10 [7:00pm ET] NORTH DAKOTA STATE vs. KANSAS UNDER 65 [-115]
This total just seems a tad unreasonable to me with Kansas breaking in a new offense under new coach Turner Gill, even if it is against a FCS team. The Jayhawks are starting an unproven QB and are unlikely to ask him to do too much, so I'm expecting the running game to be big early for KU. ND State also loves to run the ball. They ran for about 500 yards more than they passed for in 2009. 422 carries to 269 pass attempts. Expecting KU to first and foremost make sure they win and not embarass themselves here with a close game or loss. This just seems a lot more suited to a total in the 50s to me.

[EaglesPhan36]

at least the under is gravy. Poor days from the offensive gurus

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-3-1 [-0.10]

9.16.10 [7:30pm ET] CINCINNATI vs. N.C. STATE UNDER 55 [-117]
I think the defenses are ahead of the offenses for both these squads. Turnovers may be a big factor here in setting up short fields, but I'm hoping more that turnovers will be drive killers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-3-1 [+0.90]

[EaglesPhan36]

9.17.10: [8:00pm ET] KANSAS +6 [-118]
Jayhawks travel to Southern Miss for a meeting of two teams that have both played well in one game and not so much in another. KU must run the ball effectively and Southern Miss' defense could be suited to that as they were slaughtered on the ground against South Carolina before last week's FCS cupcake. Southern Miss will likely have success in the air against a bend and try not to break Kansas defense. Don't underestimate the importance of a former Southern Miss offensive coach now being on the KU Staff.

9.18.10: [12:00pm ET] NORTH TEXAS vs. ARMY OVER 51 [-110]
Both offenses match-up well with the weakest part of the opposing defense. North Texas plays the spread attack offensively rolling up plenty of aerial yards behind Nathan Tune. What goes unnoticed is that the Mean Green also sport a potent rushing game with Lance Dunbar. Army could not stop Hawaii's spread attack last week [343 yards passing] and was absolutely gutted in Week 1 on the ground by Eastern Michigan for 285 yards which should mean lots of points potentially for UNT. Army meanwhile will feature their usual pound 'em ground attack. UNT was able to hold an anemic Rice rushing attack in-check last week, but was burned by big plays from Clemson in Week 1 on the ground. Both offenses should be good for scores in the high 20s or better.

9.18.10: [3:30pm ET] HAWAII +14 [-110]
Still on the mainland this week, Hawaii takes on a Colorado team that was completely dismantled last week against Cal. Yes, Hawaii is not Cal, but the Rainbow Warriors have proven that their high octane offense is capable of putting up points-a-plenty with over 30 points in each of their 1st two games. The Buffs surely will perform better at home, but they still looked really vulnerable last week and their offense hasn't exactly performed well in either of their games so far. Colorado may pull out a win, but Hawaii should give them a fight to the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-5-1 [-1.28]

Big mistake by me on the North Texas OVER. Did not research well with their starting QB out with a major injury. Horrible pick due to that fact as their offense is non-existent without the guy. Army doing what is expected. Also adding college plays to my 2nd half thread that is in the NFL section. Don't think anyone should care, but link below so you can laugh along the way!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...justments.html

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: [4:30pm ET] BAYLOR vs. TCU 1ST HALF OVER 27.5 [-115]
Of the 28 points that TCU has surrendered in two games, 21 have come in the 1st half as the Horned Frogs really clamp down in the 2nd half of games. I think this is another set-up for that where if Baylor wants to keep this game competitive, Art Briles has to turn Robert Griffin loose in the 1st half and put some points on the scoreboard. TCU certainly is very capable of lighting it up themselves with 56 1st half points already this season.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: [7:00pm ET] CLEMSON vs. AUBURN UNDER 55 [-110]
Both these teams will run more than they pass, the big key is if Clemson's defense can stop Auburn. Auburn's defense showed tougher last week against Mississippi State and I think they can keep Parker in check at QB. If Clemson can make some stops, I think this one looks more likely to be the high 40s to low 50s and just under this total.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: [8:00pm ET] FRESNO STATE vs. UTAH STATE UNDER 59 [-110]
Fresno was solid in beating Cincinnati 28-14 to open their season. Their run defense was especially stout, while offensively they showed some issues replacing Ryan Matthews in their own running game. Utah State should be confident after playing OU tough in Week 1 and then easily beating Idaho State 38-17. Their passing game is their bread & butter with Dorel at QB. Their rush game was good last week, but the Sooners slowed it and I think Fresno will look to do the same and force Utah State to win in the air. No doubt Utah State will put points up here, but their D "held" OU to 31 and I don't think Fresno is nearly as diverse or talented as the Sooners. Can see this one finishing in the mid 50s, but I think it falls short of the total.

[TheAccountant]

Good luck Eagles - I really like your write-ups. I am on Auburn tonight, but hoping you cash your under.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hawaii 2nd half


Wow. From 10-0 to 31-13 and counting. Going back to the 1st drive when they didn't get a damn thing after getting inside Colorado's 5, seemed like this was doomed to fail. Sheesh. Hopefully the night games are more kind than the day games. 1-2 during the day, thank goodness for TCU scoring a crapload.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: IOWA vs. ARIZONA OVER 45 [-117]
Purely a gut play here. My gut has been about as trustworthy as a politician, so you know where this one winds up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Under boned with Clemson & Auburn going to OT unless something freaky happens. Tied 24-24. Other under soon to be boned. Damn it. FML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mini-miracle, missed 31 yd FG. 27-24 Auburn. Needed that shit big time.