Front Page Bowl Picks 2007-08

**Willie Bee** · 12-27-07, 11:33 AM

Texas A&M Aggies +6 over Penn State in Alamo Bowl

Game Time: 12/29/2007 08:00 PM

By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Big Ten favorites are 2-14 ATS in bowls, and Texas A&M possesses more team speed than any team Penn State faced all year. Dog the Aggies in their home state.

The Big Ten has struggled as Bowl favorites in recent years, and the Penn State Nittany Lions will put that trend to the test when they face the Texas A&M Aggies in the Aggies’ home state in the Alamo Bowl.

Not only will the Aggies have most of the crowd support, but they also discovered their offense late in the season. They saved the best for last, as they rolled up a whopping 533 yards of offense in their 38-30 upset of Texas. They showed some nice balance against the Longhorns, as the running of sophomore Mike Goodson opened up the airways for quarterback Stephen McGee via play action passes. If that game was not a mirage, we feel that the Aggies will be a tough team for Penn State to defend here.

Yes, the Nittany Lions only allowed 17.6 points per game, ranking them eight in the nation in scoring defense, but they are not accustomed to facing teams with the speed that A&M possesses. It is no secret that the Big Ten is full of plodding teams, and PSU played a very soft non-conference slate.

All things considered, we give the Aggies an excellent chance to win the game on the field, and do not forget that Big Ten favorites are just 2-14 against the spread in bowls since 2000!

Free Pick: Texas A&M +6

**Willie Bee** · 12-27-07, 11:36 AM

Boston College -3½ vs Michigan St

Game Time: 12/28/2007 05:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Boston College has won its last seven bowls, going 6-1 against the spread in those games. Make your play on the favored Eagles over the Michigan State Spartans on Friday.

In the Champs Sports Bowl, our selection is on the Boston College Golden Eagles minus the points over the Michigan State Spartans.

When we last saw these two teams, BC was defeated in the ACC Championship Game by Va Tech, 30-16 as a 4½-point dog, while MSU upset Penn State, 35-31, as a 2½-point underdog. Those results set up our play in this game as teams off an upset win to end the regular season are just 15-24 ATS since 1980 vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss, provided our 'play-against' team is not playing at home in the bowl game. And if our 'play-against' team won its last regular season game by more than a field goal, and is NOT getting 9+ points in the bowl game, then our 15-24 stat moves to
6-19 ATS.

Boston College has won its bowl game in each of the last seven seasons (covering six of seven), and is 10-3 ATS in the bowls since 1985. Michigan State is 2-5 SU and ATS since 1993. Take the Golden Eagles minus the points.

Free Pick: Boston College -3½ (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 12-27-07, 11:41 AM

Sun Devils +2½ to corral Longhorns

Game Time: 12/27/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

Arizona State's Dennis Erickson and Texas' Mack Brown will face each other for the first time Thursday at the Holiday Bowl, and the Sun Devils are the bet as dogs vs the Longhorns.

This year’s Holiday Bowl on December 27 features a showdown between two quality teams in Arizona State and Texas, both of whom are off of legitimate top-tier seasons, but both of whom are also disappointed with this bowl game assignment.

Texas of course was national champion two years ago, but this year they struggled with injuries and inconsistency on the defensive end, and things are not settled for them going into this final game. Their upperclassmen have not performed as well as the lowerclassmen on defense this year, and that will be a problem for them again here unless something changes.

The Longhorns would probably be better off playing the young guys the majority of the time in this game, and coach Mack Brown has indicated his dissatisfaction with the situation by saying that all the starting spots are “up for grabs,” and it’s not clear how much he is bluffing. But in general, there is an air of uncertainty surrounding Texas in this game, in addition to real vulnerability against the pass – Texas gave up 275 passing yards per game, good for 109th in the nation.

Arizona State, on the other hand, is on an ascendant trajectory and playing at a higher level now than they have at any time in recent memory. Their passing game is their strength, and has gotten better as the year has worn on. Texas’ questionable secondary will likely be considerably challenged by Sun Devils QB Rudy Carpenter and his phalanx of speedy receivers.

Both teams got popped by ranked teams probably a tick above their level over the course of the season, but Arizona State’s late-season road win over tough UCLA looms large in my mind, while Texas’ loss in their last game to Texas A&M, which likely cost them a BCS bid and was no doubt demoralizing, may well have them psychologically already packing it in on the season. It is reminiscent of what happened to them last year, when they also lost their BCS hopes late in the season, and subsequently underperformed in the Alamo Bowl against Iowa.

Arizona State probably played well enough to deserve a BCS bid themselves this year, and although they probably do wish they were playing in a higher-profile Bowl game, a win here against legitimate powerhouse Texas would be an impressive cap to their best season since 1996. I see value getting Arizona State as an underdog at +2½, and particularly with the ML at about +120.

**louisvillekid** · 12-27-07, 12:30 PM

i can't believe i agree with all of them. i originally liked Mich St., but i lean with BC now, will be a no-play for me though.

**jackpot269** · 12-27-07, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by louisvillekid

i can't believe i agree with all of them. i originally liked Mich St., but i lean with BC now, will be a no-play for me though.

me too but the way I've been picking'em lately your bettter off to bett other side!!!

**Willie Bee** · 12-28-07, 04:01 PM

Terrapins & Beavers Over 47½

Game Time: 12/28/2007 08:30 PM -
By: Russel Joseph | procappers.com

Tonight's Emerald Bowl in San Francisco features a pair of squads capable of putting points on the board. Play the Maryland Terrapins and Oregon State Beavers over the total.

Both of these teams are capable of putting up points consistently through all four quarters. Both teams also have questionable defenses. The Maryland Terrapins are averaging 25 ppg while giving up an average of 22 thus far. Meanwhile, we have Oregon State who is averaging 28 ppg while giving up an average of 23.

Keep in mind Maryland put up 34 in a win over Rutgers, they posted 28 against Georgia Tech, they rolled with a 37-point win in their last outing which was on the road at NC State and do not forget about their huge 42-35 SU upset over Boston College. The Terps have all sorts of weapons to score with in this matchup.

The Beavers have scored 31 points or more in six of their last 10 games, including a 52-17 win over Washington State, a 61-10 win over Idaho State and their last outing a 38-31 win over Oregon.

In fact, over the last three games Maryland has been averaging 32 ppg while the Beavers have been averaging 40 ppg. Important also to note is that the last three straight for the Beavers have all finished over the total. Take the Over in this matchup!

Free Pick: Maryland-Oregon St Over 47½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-28-07, 04:02 PM

Texas Bowl: Play TCU and Houston Over 57½

Game Time: 12/28/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

Featuring teams just 250 miles apart and from smaller conferences, the Texas Bowl might not be on the radar of many bettors, but there's money to be made on the Over.

The Texas Bowl might attract the least amount of attention of the three bowl games today because the teams involved, TCU and Houston, come from less prestigious conferences, and because the game is regional, featuring two Texas teams playing in Texas. But in my opinion, this game offers the best line value of the day with a play on the over of the total of 57½.

The line actually opened at 60+ at all the major books early in December, and has been steadily bet down to its current line. But I think this movement is misguided, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late upswing in the total close to game time.

TCU began the season as a ranked team, and adopted a conservative playing style of tight defense and efficient offense. But after three road losses by the midpoint of the season ruined their hopes of having an elite year, the Horned Frogs seemed to loosen up their style of play. Their first six games averaged only 36.7 total points scored per game, while their last six games, coming after that third road loss to lowly Wyoming, averaged 54.8 total points scored per game.

Houston, of course, has been playing high-scoring games all season long, conforming to the conference-wide tendencies of Conference USA with 10 of their 12 games this year seeing totals over 57½, including their last seven games.

The Cougars will face a better defense than they are used to seeing in TCU which gave up only 320 yards per game, 16th fewest in the nation, no doubt about that. But Houston has a legitimately capable offense themselves, and TCU’s offensive game really took a step up in their final two games against UNLV and San Diego State, two teams that don’t present much of a challenge on defense, similar to Houston. At some point, I expect this game to open up and the points to start tallying up, resembling Houston’s shootouts more than TCU’s low-scoring early-season games.

WSEX has a lean on the Over in this game, holding their line steady at 58½, and I agree with that assessment. I’ll be on the Over here at 57½.

Free Pick: TCU-Houston Over 57½ (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 12-28-07, 04:09 PM

Citrus Bowl: Play Spartans and Eagles Over 56½

Game Time: 12/28/2007 05:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The Over is the trend for Michigan State, including 5-1 when facing winning teams this year. Play the Over when the Spartans face Boston College in the Citrus Bowl.

The Spartans closed out the season by scoring 35 points vs. Penn State and 48 vs. Purdue. Including those results, they've seen the Over go 5-1 in six games against winning teams this season.

Michigan State has also seen the Over go 7-1 the last eight times they were coming off consecutive wins and 24-9 ATS the last 33 times (games which had a total) they were coming off a win over a Big 10 opponent. Additionally, the Spartans have seen the Over go 29-11 when listed as underdogs of +3½ to +10 points.

While the Spartans' defensive suspesnions have helped the pointspread to climb, the total has remained stable. Consider a play on the Over.

Free Pick: Michigan St-Boston College Over 56½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-29-07, 09:46 AM

Liberty Bowl

Bulldogs & Knights present intriguing matchup

Game Time: 12/29/2007 04:30 PM -
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com

It should be a crisp, sunny afternoon in Memphis for this year's Liberty Bowl, and the action on the field should be exciting between Mississippi State and Central Florida.

This year’s Liberty Bowl presents an intriguing matchup with several storylines pitting Central Florida, the top team from Conference USA, as a three-point favorite against Mississippi State, a second-tier team from the SEC. From a handicapping perspective, this game is all about conference ratings.

The SEC was rated as the top conference in the nation this year by the definitive Sagarin Ratings, as well as most experts, while Conference USA drew even with the Sun Belt Conference for worst in Division I-A, behind two Division I-AA conferences, in fact.

As a consequence, these two teams played very different regular-season schedules, to put it mildly. Mississippi State played a Top 25 team almost every week – the SEC ended the year with six teams in the Top 25, and three others besides those six were in the Top 25 when Mississippi State played them. Central Florida, on the other hand, played most of their games against the decidedly mediocre competition of Conference USA, playing only two ranked teams, losing both times, although playing competitively with Texas.

As a further consequence, the two teams’ season-long stats are a bit skewed and might be somewhat meaningless. The Bulldogs allowed an average of 159 rushing yards per game this season, which would appear to be a major vulnerability considering the Knights’ offensive strength is their running game, centered around NCAA rushing leader Kevin Smith, who has rushed for more yards this year than any other NCAA running back in history except Barry Sanders – he will need 181 yards (less than his season per-game average) in the Liberty Bowl to surpass Sanders. All the other season-long stats look better for Central Florida than Mississippi State as well, but it’s not immediately obvious how these numbers might relate to the likely outcomes of the game.

Most power rankings have Mississippi State as somewhat less of an underdog than the current line. StatFox rates the game as dead even, while Sagarin has Central Florida rated as about a 1½-point favorite.

This should be an exciting game to watch – a likely competitive one featuring Kevin Smith going for the rushing record, one-time shamed Notre Dame coach George O’Leary going for his first Bowl win with Central Florida, and Bear Bryant protégé and SEC Coach of the Year Sylvester Croom looking to resurrect the normally cellar-dwelling Mississippi State program with a bowl win, not to mention the conference comparison test.

If I had to take a side, I’d go with Mississippi State on the ML at +130 because if this game is close, as it should be, it could well come down to a 50/50 situation at the end. But I would also not be surprised if Smith does run all over Mississippi State, shattering the record, and Central Florida jumps out to a quick multi-TD lead that the Bulldogs are unable to recover from.

**Willie Bee** · 12-29-07, 09:47 AM

Cotton Bowl: Tigers -3 to roast Hogs

Game Time: 01/01/2008 11:30 AM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

Missouri certainly has the coaching edge in this one, plus they've got Chase Daniels at quarterback. Take the favored Tigers in the Cotton Bowl against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

If coaching has any impact on this game, one would have to figure Missouri has a huge edge as they recently gave head coach Gary Pinkel an extension while Arkansas forced their coach out as Houston Nutt thought Ole Miss had brighter pastures in the future.

The Hogs still cannot throw the football whatsoever, and expect the Tigers to crowd the line of scrimmage and not let Darren McFadden or Felix Jones beat them. The Tigers have an explosive offense led by Heisman finalist Chase Daniels who can beat you with his arm or his legs.

This line is low because Vegas expects Missouri to be down about playing in the Cotton Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl, but I expect just the opposite to occur as the Tigers come out and make a statement. It also helps to have revenge on their minds, as Arkansas knocked them off in 2003 by a 27-14 score at the Independence Bowl.

Free Pick: Missouri -3 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 12-31-07, 12:17 PM

Florida State +4½ still the play vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Game Time: 12/31/2007 04:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Florida State may be shorthanded, but they only lost one starter to their suspensions, and it is easier to overcome a lack of depth in one bowl game than over several tilts.

Much has been made of the fact that the Florida State Seminoles have 36 players that are suspended for the Music City Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats, but most of the suspended players are reserves, so this line move looks like an overreaction.

Sure, the Noles now have practically zero depth, but that is more of a concern over several games than it is for one bowl game at the end of the year. They did have one key suspension on defense in cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions this season, but the other 10 starters remain in tact, and the only notable suspension on offense is that of backup quarterback Xavier Lee, who has been coming in for a few situational plays each game. That just means that starting quarterback Drew Weatherford won’t get any relief this game, but truth be told, he has actually been steady if not spectacular, with just one interception in 10 games.

Kentucky was having a dream season, and the were actually ranked in the top 10 at 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but the Wildcats promptly went out and lost four of their last five games to finish at 7-5. The problem down the stretch was the Kentucky defense, which allowed 45, 31, 24 and 52 points respectively in the four late-season losses.

Also in Florida State’s favor is the fact that ACC underdogs have been surprisingly excellent bets in bowl games, going a stunning 19-6, 76.0 percent against the spread since 2000!

Free Pick: Florida State +4½

**Willie Bee** · 12-31-07, 12:18 PM

Cal Bears -4½ to ground Falcons

Game Time: 12/31/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Teams like Air Force that are riding six or more straight ATS wins going into bowls are just 1-8 ATS facing teams like Cal off a straight up loss. Back the Bears vs. the Falcons.

Our New Year's Eve college bowl selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over the Air Force Falcons in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Air Force comes into this afternoon's game off seven straight pointspread wins, and the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Falcons here. But I wouldn't do that if I were you. Consider that, since 1980, bowl teams off six or more ATS wins in a row, are a dismal 1-8 ATS if matched up against a foe off a SU loss. And California is off not just one loss, but three SU losses.

And since 1980, bowl teams off three or more losses are 15-8 ATS, including a win last night by Alabama in the Independence Bowl. Take Cal in a blowout.

Free Pick: California -4½ (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 12-31-07, 12:19 PM

Even without Dixon, Ducks +6½ still fly against Bulls

Game Time: 12/31/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The storyline has been the Ducks not having the services of QB Dennis Dixon, but look for Oregon to still be hungry as the underdogs today against the South Florida Bulls.

At one point, both of these teams hoped to be playing for a national title. In fact, for a time, it looked like they might even play each other for the national title. Obviously, that didn't happen. However, I don't feel that either team is particular "disappointed" to be here.

Both teams are well coached and both will be anxious to come home with a victory. That being said, I feel that Oregon has more to prove and the the Ducks will be the "hungrier" team. The Ducks looked as good as any team in the country for several weeks. They went into Michigan and absolutely destroyed a strong Wolverines team. They also knocked off USC and earned double-digit victories over the likes of bowl teams like Arizona State and Fresno State.

Of course, all that came to a crashing halt with the injury to Dennis Dixon and the Ducks stumbled down the stretch. Still, the Ducks have had now plenty of time to prepare and they'd love to prove that they were more than just Dixon. Don't be surprised if they step up and give the Bulls all they can handle. Consider a play on Oregon.

Free Pick: Oregon +6½ (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 12-31-07, 12:21 PM

Auburn +2½ to bottle up Clemson

Game Time: 12/31/2007 07:30 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

Clemson did not fare well away from home against stingy defenses, and Auburn's D is one of the stingiest. Take the points and Auburn at the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in the Georgia Dome.

Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either.

In short, this team didn’t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.

Auburn’s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to season lows in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We’re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.

Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses.

Tommy Bowden’s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around. Take Auburn.

Free Pick: Auburn +2½ (-106)

**Willie Bee** · 12-31-07, 12:22 PM

South Florida -6 to shine vs Oregon

Game Time: 12/31/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Featuring a pair of teams that were both ranked No. 2 at one point this season, the Sun Bowl favors the South Florida Bulls in more ways than one against the Oregon Ducks.

The Sun Bowl is by no means the venue either of these clubs felt they’d be this bowl season. Each at one point was ranked the No. 2 team in the country, yet each failed to hold onto that spot the following week.

South Florida saw its hopes squashed when they paid Rutgers a visit and lost by a 30-27 final count in a wild and wacky contest. Oregon’s hopes to play in the National Championship were all but squashed in the desert when QB Dennis Dixon ripped apart his knee, and the Ducks went on to get embarrassed for the second year in a row to Arizona.

Still, it was a very successful campaign for the South Florida Bulls who won nine games for the second time under the watchful eye of head coach Jim Leavitt. A win here would give them double-digit wins for the first time in the program's history. QB Matt Grothe opened up many eyes with his efforts throughout the regular season. He’s a dual threat that threw for 2473 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 13/12, and he also rushed for 850 yards and hit pay dirt 10 times. The offense exploded this season with him at the helm as the 36 PPG they averaged this season was 13-points higher than their average of a year ago.

If only Dixon didn’t hurt himself, you’ll hear that a lot from the Duck faithful, but you do have to ask yourself what might have been if he didn’t screw his knee up against ASU only to have Arizona finish the job off. Their lone loss up until that point was against Cal in a game they handed away, and with the Top 10 in the polls changing on a weekly basis, they had an excellent opportunity to play in the BCS Championship Game with games against UCLA and Oregon State only left on the docket.

I question the Ducks' mindset here greatly whereas South Florida is still looking to build the foundation of its young program that only started playing Div-IA ball back in 2001. Lay the points.

Free Pick: South Florida -6 (-105)