Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Nov 17)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:26 AM

Go with San Diego State Aztecs, Air Force Falcons Under 49

Game Time: 11/17/2007 02:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Both Air Force and San Diego State have strong Under trends in MWC play. With the Aztecs averaging 19 points on the road and the Falcons allowing 11 at home, go Under.

The San Diego State Aztecs defeated the Air Force Falcons 19-12 when these clubs met last season, and while this game may be slightly higher scoring than that, we still expect it to stay safely Under.

Air Force is coming off of a couple of high scoring games outside the conference vs. Notre Dame and Army. However, the Falcons have been held to exactly 20 points in two of their three home games vs. the Mountain West this season, and the Under is now 9-2 in their last 11 home games overall.

Similarly, the Under is 26-12 in the last 38 San Diego State road games, and the Aztecs are averaging just 19.8 points per game on the road overall this season. Yes, they put up 38 points at UNLV last week, but the Aztecs are not the type of offense where you could expect that kind of explosion in consecutive weeks.

We look for a return to normalcy here for San Diego State vs. an Air Force defense that has allowed just 19.0 points per game over and 11.2 points per game at home. Let’s call it Air Force 27, San Diego State 14, which would be a rather handy Under.

Free Pick: San Diego State, Air Force Under 49

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:29 AM

South Florida -9 vs. Louisville

Game Time: 11/17/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

It's been a disappointing season for both South Florida and Louisville. Look for Jim Leavitt's Bulls to treat their fans to a win in their home game tonight versus the Cardinals.

Our Saturday night ESPNU college football selection is on the South Florida Bulls at home minus the points over Louisville.

Last week, Jim Leavitt's Bulls got off the schneid with a 41-10 win over Syracuse, and now South Florida falls into a terrific 'Last Home Game' system. What we want to do is play on any favorite of more than four points in its final home game, provided it is not its final game of the regular season, and it is off a win and cover, but two ATS losses before that.

Before winning at Syracuse last week, the Bulls dropped three straight games straight up and against the spread, so they fall into our Last Home Game system. Lay the wood with South Florida.

Free Pick: South Florida -9 (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:31 AM

Iowa St and Kansas Under 58

Game Time: 11/17/2007 03:30 PM Iowa St and Kansas Under 58 - NCAAF Matchups -Iowa St and Kansas Under 58 - NCAAF Line Moves

By: Fairway Jay | who2beton.com

The most underrated part of the Jayhawks' gridiron group this is their defense, especially up front on the line. That group will play a key role in an Under today vs Iowa St.

Iowa State (3-8) is playing their best ball of the season, winners of their last two games and 4-0 ATS the past month. They held the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 316 yards and 17 points. The Sooners were in a letdown sandwich, and it showed.

Kansas has been perfect this season, 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS. However, the Jayhawks now find themselves in a flat spot coming off another big road win at Oklahoma State with their big rivalry game and Big 12 North showdown vs. Missouri on deck.

While Iowa State has struggled on the road, they will certainly bring a level of intensity to this contest facing the unbeaten Jayhawks and playing in their last game of the season. The game is meaningless in the Big 12 North standings, as the winner of next weeks Missouri/Kansas game will play in the Big 12 Championship regardless of Kansas’ result.

The Jayhawks defense is very underrated, especially up front while allowing less than 15 ppg as the explosive offense gets the headlines. I believe the Jayhawks will be happy to just get the victory and move on without worry of continuing to run up the score if they extend. Play Under the total.

Free Pick: Iowa St-Kansas Under 58 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:32 AM

San Diego St. +11½ at Air Force

Game Time: 11/17/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Air Force is being overrated for this one after their win against Notre Dame last week. Side with the underdog San Diego State Aztecs this afternoon when they visit the Falcons.

This game is all about Air Force and how it has won five of six including a win at Notre Dame last Saturday. Big deal.

Yes, the Falcons are playing very good right now, but with the exception of their thumping of Army this team has not dominated. Of the other four wins during this run, they have outgained two opponents and been outgained by two opponents with a net +81 total in those four games.

San Diego St. has quietly gone about its business with two straight wins following a heartbreaking loss at home to New Mexico by three points two weeks prior. The Aztecs sit at 3-2 in the MWC and believe it or not, they still have a shot at a share of the title. If Utah can knock off the Cougars in two weeks, and San Diego St. wins its rescheduled game with BYU on December 1, it is possible.

Last year, San Diego St. had to keep things simple and start from scratch with three different quarterbacks. This year, it could build with one as Kevin O’Connell as remained healthy and has put up good numbers. He is 35th in the country in total offense which is pretty good considering the Aztecs finished 108th in total offense a year ago. O’Connell is dangerous with both his arm and his feet.

The Falcons are cranking with their option attack and it will be up for the Aztecs to try and slow them down. They have been able to control some goods rushing teams and while stopping Air Force is not an option, slowing it down enough is so the offense can control as much of the clock as possible. Confidence is important as the Aztecs are 2-1 in their past three road games after losing their previous nine road/neutral site contests.

While Air Force is great at running the ball, fourth in the country, it is only 62 in scoring offense so it isn’t going to run away with anything. Play against favorites of 10½ to 21 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg after seven or more games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being just -5.8 ppg. Play the San Diego St. Aztecs for a unit.

Free Pick: San Diego State +11½ (-106)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:56 AM

Woo, Pig! Arkansas Razorbacks -11½ vs. Mississippi State

Game Time: 11/17/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com

Tennessee's rout of Arkansas last week plays into line value on the Razorbacks this week. Lay the points and call the Hogs Saturday against Mississippi State.

Last week’s results have now created line value in this game as the Razorbacks would have been at least a two touchdown favorites in this game just one week ago. Arkansas was embarrassed at Tennessee in a 34-13 loss, but actually held a 289-279 total yard edge as the score was misleading due to 3-0 turnover deficit.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State is also coming off a misleading win as they defeated Alabama 17-12 despite being outgained 274-215 in total yards. Keep in mind the Bulldogs' upset win versus Kentucky a few weeks ago was also misleading as the Wildcats committed six turnovers. Overall, Mississippi State is still a below average team this season and they have struggled versus quality rushing attacks.

Mississippi State has a strong pass defense, but their rushing defense is only average and they will now be facing a potent Arkansas offense that averages 38 points per game and 6.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 29 ppg and 5.5 yppl). The strength of this Arkansas offense is a powerful rushing attack that averages 297 yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 194 yards and 4.7 ypr).

Arkansas should dominate the line of scrimmage in this game and they will be extra motivated for their final home game of the season. Arkansas also fits a 97-52 ATS bounce-back situation after last week’s 21-point loss.

Free Pick: Arkansas -11½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:58 AM

Cal Bears -7 at Washington

Game Time: 11/17/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

After starting the season 5-0, California has been in a skid losing four of their last five, but look for a solid effort this afternoon by the Bears when they travel to face Washington.

The Cal Bears were a major disappointment this year. A regular in preseason top 20 polls, DeSean Jackson and Company started the season 5-0 with a super-impressive wins over Tennessee and at Oregon mixed in, but since then they've gone 1-4, including inexplicable defeats at the hands of Oregon St. and UCLA.

Last week, they couldn't survive a torrential downpour or stop USC running back Chauncey Washington, who racked up a career-high 220 yards on the Bears. Quarterback Nate Longshore just keeps putting the ball on the ground -- another fumble and interception last week, giving him 10 picks on the year -- and Cal seems destined to keep playing just well enough to lose.

This week, though, they travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies who will almost certainly be without their starting quarterback, redshirt freshman Jake Locker.

Locker was pummeled so hard against Oregon St. last week he had to leave on a stretcher, and has a badly sprained neck. It's highly doubtful he'll suit up Saturday, which means Carl Bonnell will play against the Golden Bears for the second straight year. Last season, Huskies' QB Isaiah Stanback was hurt and Bonnell started his first collegiate game, tossing for 284 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw five interceptions in an overtime loss. Bonnell went on to play very poorly in Washington's other four remaining games (40.3% completion percentage, four TDs, six picks), which explains why Locker became the starter in '07.

If Locker were playing, I'd probably stay away from this game (and the line would be a lot closer). Cal has struggled against the pass this year, and hasn't had the explosive offense most expected since the Oregon win (through that game, the Bears averaged 39.4 points per game, and that included a 45-point effort against Tennessee; since then, they've averaged 21.2). Much of that drop is thanks to an increased focus on Jackson, the stud junior receiver who could eventually be a dangerous slot man in the NFL.

But the Huskies don't have the horses on defense to stay with Cal. They allow the most points per game of any team in the Pac-10, and they've allowed an incredible 2,045 rushing yards in 10 games, making them 18th-worst in the country (right behind the execrable Notre Dame defense). Justin Forsett isn't Marshawn Lynch, but he's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, 116.9 per game, and has 13 rushing touchdowns for the Bears. Frankly, Longshore shouldn't have to win this contest for Cal. They should be able to run it all day.

Locker has looked like a kid at times, making key interceptions galore, but he's a fantastic runner (the team's second-leading rusher, just 46 yards behind Louis Rankin), and Washington will miss him terribly. I don't trust Bonnell, and the Bears will absolutely dare him to beat them while they focus on taking Rankin away. Cal is a terrible 3-7 against the spread this year, but I think the line has finally taken their losing ways into account. The Bears have covered five straight times in Seattle, and the road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

Ty Willingham is building something around Locker at Washington, but I don't think the kid plays, and I don't think the Huskies keep it close. You always hate taking road conference chalk, but there it is. Take California (-7) at Washington.

Last Week: Another easy one. Unbelievably (I thought), we had Tennessee as a pick 'em over Arkansas at home, and the Vols delivered a crushing win, 34-13. Frankly, it wasn't that close. Tennessee was up 27-3 partway through the third quarter, and never looked back.

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 11:59 AM

Kansas State +7 vs. Missouri

Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:30 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Kansas State is coming off a big-time whipping at the hands of Nebraska last week, but the Wildcats still have enough offense and special teams play to cover against Missouri.

Kansas State was embarrassed last week by Nebraska, losing 73-31 with their defense giving up 703 total yards at 9.0 yards per play. What happened to the stingy Kansas State defense we saw earlier in the season?

Injuries happened. Top CB Joshua Moore was suspended early in the season and never saw action and the lack of depth in the Wildcats’ defensive backfield has been exposed the last three weeks since CB Byron Garvin has been out. Kansas State’s pass defense went from good to bad in three weeks without Garvin and losing starting DT Steven Cline hurt the run defense. Kansas State is a worse than average defensive team now but the Wildcats can still compete in this game with a good offense and great special teams play.

The Wildcats are among the nation’s best in special teams and an offense that rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) has a slight edge over a Missouri defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). The Tigers have a very good offense (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and my math model favors them by nine points after adjusting for the current state of the Kansas State defense.

However, Kansas State is 73-34 ATS at home since 1990 (8-3 ATS under coach Ron Prince) and the Wildcats also apply to a solid 53-23-1 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation that is 13-1 ATS when applying to teams that allowed 41 points or more the previous week. Final Score: Missouri-37, Kansas St-34.

Free Pick: Kansas State +7 (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:01 PM

Cincinnati +6 vs. West Virginia

Game Time: 11/17/2007 07:45 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

In a season full of upsets, don't be too surprised if Cincinnati beats West Virginia straight up Saturday night. Take the Bearcats and the points against the Mountaineers.

The fifth-ranked Mountaineers invade Nippert Stadium to take on the 23rd-ranked Bearcats in a game loaded with Big East ramifications. A win by West Virginia would certainly make them the odds on favorite to capture the Big East crown, while a win by Cincinnati Bearcats would keep them in surprise contention for the prize with only a trip to Syracuse left on the docket.

We lost our first Thursday night 5-Star Best Bet on West Virginia last week when they choked away a 17-point lead but managed to pick up the miraculous win when QB Pat White scampered for the game winning 50+ yard TD in the closing minutes of play. While watching the game and observing the play of the Mounties, I noticed they played tight and looked very uncomfortable with a double-digit lead in their own house. How are they going to react to playing in front of a frenzied Nippert Stadium with 35,000+ rabid Bearcat fans screaming their heads off?

On top of that, they’re going to have to deal with a very confident football team that head coach Brian Kelly has done a masterful job with. Cincinnait is off back-to-back wins over a pair of ranked schools, South Florida and UConn, and will no doubt take the field very confident in their ability to pull off the upset.

Offensively, the Bearcats rank second to WVU in the conference in scoring with an average of 37 PPG, and they have been able to produce that lofty point total by gaining a solid 429 TYPG. They run a balanced attack and QB Ben Mauk has proven to be a duel threat with his arm and his legs. Just last week he accounted for 288 of Cincy’s 420 yards vs. Connecticut, throwing three TD passes and putting the game away with a late TD scamper as well.

Defensively, Cincy gets after you. They make it a point to shut down the run, 99 YPG, and come in ranked second in points allowed in the Big East (16 PPG). They also lead the Big East in forcing turnovers (35 overall/22 INT’s).

Not much separates these teams on paper, but the Bearcats have shown me enough this season to know they should never be installed an underdog at home by more than a FG. That might even be pushing it. They’re clicking on all cylinders right now and have the moxie to crush the Mountaineers' Big East dreams in this venue much like they did to Rutgers last season.

Free Pick: Cincinnati +6 (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:02 PM

Clemson -8½ vs Boston College

Game Time: 11/17/2007 07:45 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

Boston College rose to No. 2 in the country using smoke and mirrors while there's no magic to Clemson's claim as the No. 1 team in the ACC. Take the Tigers today vs. the Eagles.

Boston College was a remarkably consistent team during the Tom O’Brien era. In every season this decade prior to 2007, BC won seven or eight regular season games, then played in a relatively minor bowl. The Eagles would beat the teams that they were supposed to beat, performing extremely well as a favorite, but when they stepped up in class, they struggled.

This year, things broke right early for Boston College under first year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski, and suddenly, BC was ranked as the #2 team in the country! At no point was this team a legitimate Top 10 squad, but a single upset win over Georgia Tech and a Heisman contender at quarterback, Matt Ryan, catapulted this team to a higher ranking than they deserved. BC even survived 58 minutes of terrible football at Virginia Tech before pulling off their second upset of the season thanks to Ryan’s late game heroics, and a lucky bounce going their way on the onside kick.

Boston College has tumbled from #2 in the country, losing each of their last two games. The Eagles defense has worn down, torched for their two worst performances of the season in this two game skid. The offense has become one dimensional, unable to run the football against better defenses. Their confidence is shattered; their momentum snapped. A good (not great) team to begin with, the Eagles might not even be particularly good at this late stage of the campaign.

Said linebacker Mark Herzlich following the loss to Maryland last week, "Being we were No. 2 in the nation to losing two straight, it obviously goes from an extreme high to an extreme low."

Meanwhile, Clemson is the best team in the ACC, and they come into this game with tremendous momentum, on a four game SU and ATS winning streak. The running back duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller is second to none in the conference, while QB Cullen Harper has developed tremendous chemistry with big play wideouts Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham.

Clemson’s defense has held each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less. With the right to play in the ACC title game on the line, look for another strong performance out of Tommy Bowden’s club on Saturday night.

Free Pick: Clemson -8½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:04 PM

Iowa (-14) vs. Western Michigan

Game Time: 11/17/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City hosts this interconference matchup, and with the home crowd behind them, the Hawkeyes will cover the 2-TD spread against Western Michigan.

Western Michigan put everything it had into last week's 34-31 home loss to arch rival Central Michigan. Now the Broncos must step out of conference play and travel to Big Ten country to tackle an Iowa team that is just itching to blow someone out. This one could ugly men. Let's take a look inside the numbers.

Since 2004, double-digit MAC road dogs are a stiff 36-55-1 ATS provided they're matched up against a non-conference foe. Even worse, if our road pup enters off a poor defensive performance in which they allowed 32 points or more in their last contest, this conference angle dips to a shocking 12-35 ATS! WMU fits this play against situation perfectly.

There is a tremendous last road game angle that goes against the Broncos, too. What you want to do is play against any team running in their final road battle of the season provided it is sandwiched between a pair of home games. With this last road game situation "live" and our play against side in a lose-win set (meaning the road team off a SU loss and the home team off a SU win), this awesome angle crashes to a woeful 37-58 ATS. With those parameters applied and our guest matched up against a foe that owns a won/loss percentage of .700 or less, this system hits rock bottom at 18-35 ATS! Western Michigan fits this nasty system and all of its tighteners.

In last week's 21-16 home win over Minnesota, Iowa surprisingly got shut out in the second half. That won't happen against this MAC weakling. The Hawkeyes stand 15-1 SU and 10-4 in their last 15 at home in non-conference action and they light up the scoreboard here. Take the Hawkeyes.

Free Pick: Iowa -14 (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:05 PM

Take BYU Cougars, Wyoming Cowboys Under 46

Game Time: 11/17/2007 02:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

BYU has an underrated defense that allows 19.8 points per game, while Wyoming has allowed even fewer yards per game than BYU. Expect enough stops for an Under.

While the BYU Cougars are better known for their offense, their 7-2 record this season has been keyed by an underrated defense, and we look for that unit to keep this meeting with the Wyoming Cowboys Under the total.

BYU is allowing only 19.8 points per game this year, with the Under going 5-3 in all of their lined contests. Their 27-22 win over TCU last week snapped a streak of five consecutive games where they held their opponent below 20 points, and they have allowed as many as 27 points just twice this season. The Cougars have done an equally good job vs. the run (3.1 yards per rush) and vs. the pass (6.4 yards per pass).

Wyoming has managed to go 5-5, but the Cowboys only average 19.5 points, and they may not even reach that vs. this staunch BYU unit. At the same time, the Cowboys have done a commendable if not great job defensively, limiting their opponents to an anemic 2.9 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass. While those figures are actually better than the Cougars, Wyoming is allowing five points per game more, at 24.0, suggesting that they are vulnerable to big plays.

Still, we look for both of these teams to make enough stops to keep this game safely Under this total.

Free Pick: BYU, Wyoming Under 46

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:07 PM

Kansas -26½ vs. Iowa State

Game Time: 11/17/2007 03:30 PM -
By: John Martin | procappers.com

Don't worry about Mark Mangino's Jayhawks looking past this week to their meeting with Missouri. Lay the thick chalk on Kansas Saturday when they host the Iowa State Cyclones.

Kansas will blow the Iowa State Cyclones out of the water Saturday. The Jayhawks beat ISU 41-10 last season on the road. Now they get the Cyclones at home and it will get ugly in a hurry.

The Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. They are averaging a ridiculous 58 points a game at home. Iowa State is putting up just 19 points a game in all games this season and the Cyclones are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.

Kansas is for real this season and they will continue to prove it Saturday with an enormous massacre of Iowa State. Cash in with the Jayhawks as the favorite.

Free Pick: Kansas -26½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 11-17-07, 12:09 PM

Cash the Utah Utes -14½ vs. New Mexico Lobos

Game Time: 11/17/2007 05:30 PM -
By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

Utah is the creal of the Mountain West crop this year, and they will send their fans home happy this week. Play the Utes as big favorites against the New Mexico Lobos.

Utah is the most dominant team in the Mountain West Conference. The Utes are coming off a 50-0 win over Wyoming as a 13-point favorite at home.

New Mexico has a solid record, but don’t let it fool you. The Lobos lost their last road game 37-0 to the TCU Horned Frogs. This is the same TCU team that Utah beat 27-20 on the road.

Utah is 6-0 in their last six games straight up. The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Utah is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a ATS win. The New Mexico Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Take Utah and lay the points.

Free Pick: Utah -14½ (-110)