rjt's Week 10 NCAA Plays

**austintx05** · 10-28-07, 08:41 PM

like ok st

**BuddyBear** · 10-28-07, 10:23 PM

I'll be with you on OKST.... not so sure anymore about ND. I mean NAVY is bad and if ND can not score on that defense, they are officially the worst team in college football. I guess I just don't want to get involved with two bad teams.

Plus I get confused when i watch the NAVY/ND game as to which team is which

**shrax4** · 10-28-07, 10:23 PM

Will be on Bama and OK St with you. I do like the BC pick as well, may tail you on that one.

**Wassymac** · 10-29-07, 12:06 AM

Probably going to like a bit like my card...

Already played Bama +8, OSU +3.5

I lean to NW, ND

Best of luck

**imgv94** · 10-29-07, 02:54 AM

A lot of people I respect are on ND. I just do NOT get it.

GL nonetheless.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-29-07, 07:21 AM

I'm not touching that Notre Dame game. I've already lost twice on them this year, once on an over and once getting 20 points. The other games on your card look good. That's a nice number on that Bama game. I'd like to see it go to 8. GL to you!

**cashflow50** · 10-29-07, 01:04 PM

love the alabama, okla st and bc plays RJT. I think BC pounds flo st. They proved to me worthy when they beat VT in blacksburg.

gl

**pags11** · 10-30-07, 02:45 AM

good to see you on Oklahoma St. and Alabama...keep up the good capping and GL this week rjt...

**wolves** · 10-30-07, 12:13 PM

GL to you this week.
Looking forward to your write-ups.

**onlooker** · 10-30-07, 02:22 PM

Hey RJT, I am with you on Boston College. Nothing on the others.

Good luck this weekend.

**BuddyBear** · 10-30-07, 02:35 PM

I disagree with the South Carolina play...i don't think that is the right side to that game but you got the right price.

**rjt721** · 10-31-07, 08:17 PM

Thanks guys. Best of luck to all of you as well.

3* Oklahoma St. +3.5: After two gimme’s in conference play, this is Texas’ first true road test. UT hasn’t beaten a top 50 team this season, Colt McCoy has regressed after a great freshman year, and without WR Limas Sweed to take advantage of OSU’s suspect secondary, the Horns are in over their head this Sat. I can understand this line – I had the line valued as a pk, but because UT is such a public team it’s not surprising they opened as a road fav. However, that doesn’t change the fact that the better team is getting points on their home field. Speed has given UT’s defense fits, and OSU is likely the fastest team the Horns have faced. I’ll take the points, although I don’t think they will be needed.

2* Northwestern +1: Iowa has 1 win on the road – at Northern Illinois, one of the five worst teams in D-1. Both of the Hawkeyes conference wins have come at home, and both against running teams – Illinois and MSU. This Iowa team simply can’t defend the pass. Against the two predominantly pass-oriented teams Iowa has played (Indiana, Purdue), they’ve given up an average of 318.5 YPG through the air and been outscored by a combined 69-26 margin. The OSU game notwithstanding, Northwestern has been competitive in each game this year. Iowa’s lost 6 straight road conference games, and on the road against the Wildcats’ 8th-ranked passing offense is a terrible matchup for this Iowa squad.

2* South Carolina +6: Spurrier going back to Mitchell at QB makes this a play. SC’s defense has had trouble stopping the run, and no team runs the ball better than Arkansas and the McFadden/Jones duo, but SC’s problems stopping the run have come against the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky, teams that are equally effective both throwing the ball as they’re running. Matched up against a one-dimensional offense will allow SC to fully concentrate on containing McFadden and Jones. Arkansas’ defense has been just as poor against the run, and SC’s Boyd/Davis tandem are pretty good in their own right. SC losing 2 straight has inflated this line, and getting the better team and 6 pts. is enough for me.

2* Notre Dame -3: It speaks to how bad ND is/has been that they’re only a 3-pt. fav. in South Bend against Navy, a team fresh off giving up 581 yards and 59 pts. to Delaware. It’s not secret this Irish team is bad, but the offense has shown some improvement with Sharpley at QB. Sharpley was almost solely responsible for ND’s brief comeback against Purdue a few weeks back, and also did some good things against a pretty solid BC defense two weeks ago after relieving Claussen in the second half. ND’s defense, both the run defense and the secondary, has been almost as big of a problem as the offense, but facing an option offense will allow the Irish the stack the box and focus entirely on the run, as Navy’s offense presents no threat of a passing game. Navy’s deficiencies on defense can’t be overstated, and Weis finally coming to his senses and giving Sharpley the nod will better prepare the Irish to expose a Navy defense allowing 9.5 yards per pass, by far the worst in D-1. In a battle of terrible teams, ND is better. Or not as terrible.

1* Alabama +7.5: I’m not really sure what to make of this 'Bama team. After struggling on both sides of the ball for the better part of a month, they played their best game of the season two weeks ago as they dismantled Tennessee. LSU’s at worst the second best team in the country, but this team has a few holes. For one, the defense has been less dominant than many anticipated, and I still feel the best way to beat LSU is to attack the secondary, as Kentucky successfully demonstrated. No other team in the SEC has the personnel to better do this than Alabama, who, outside of maybe Florida, possess the best and most talented receiving core in the conference, led by DJ Hall. The other weakness for the Tigers is the play of Matt Flynn, and Saban will surely blitz early and often and put the pressure on Flynn. LSU may very well prevail, but this will be a competitive game for a variety of reasons, and I like the Tide to stay within the number, maybe even winning this game outright.

1* BC -6.5: Some have said this is a letdown spot for the Eagles following their improbable win over VT. I don’t buy it. You don’t overlook FSU, no matter how mediocre this Noles team may be. Weatherford’s back at the helm for FSU, and he’s not the answer. FSU hasn’t run the ball effectively all year, and facing an Eagles’ defense that’s allowed 100+ rushing yards once this year, the Seminoles’ ground attack doesn’t figure to fare much better this weekend. This will put the pressure on the mistake-prone Weatherford to make plays through the air against an aggressive and opportunistic Eagles’ defense, which will lead to turnovers. FSU’s defense is still the strength of the team, but they’ve been susceptible to the big play, and the rain in Blacksburg last Thursday is the only thing that has slowed down Matt Ryan and the Eagles’ offense. FSU will need a score or two from the defense to keep this close. If BC protects the ball, they win by double digits.

Will likely add Troy if the number reaches 17. Leaning to the under in tomorrow night's VT/GT game, but will hold off until tomorrow when a more concrete weather report is available.

**taurus** · 10-31-07, 08:51 PM

Nice looking card. I like most of it- Okla State for one. Spurrier for another.
Iowa's one road win was on a neutral field as you may recall. This week they go on the road as a true visitor, although not to a particularly hostile environment.
GL

**rjt721** · 10-31-07, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by taurus

Iowa's one road win was on a neutral field as you may recall.

You're correct. Thanks for the clarification.

Good luck this weekend.

**imgv94** · 10-31-07, 11:41 PM

Superb writeups sir. On point with everything.

**rjt721** · 11-01-07, 06:03 PM

Adding for tonight:

1* VT/GT under 41