1. #1
    veriableodds
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    NCAAF season picks

    2 TOTALS off by a LOT?? (sportsbookreview.com) little bit of a pre season talk which contains all my picks thus far.

    8/31
    fl/utah/ov-48.5/-110
    prediction 61

    9/2
    buff/Wisconsin/un-55.5/-110
    prediction 47
    8.31
    Minnesota/-6.5/-110
    9.2
    fresno state/+6/-110
    akron/+11/-110
    5p risk 2.11u(0.422u per play)

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Good Luck, Veri. Have a big year.

    Veri, i am NOT questioning your picks. You know I believe in your methods. Just a few notes:

    *Utah: Cam Rising injury update vs. Florida: Utah QB unlikely to play

    *Wisconsin: IMHO, one of the biggest Transfer Portal acquisitions was SMU qb Mordecai transferring to WISC. Should open up the offense.

    Good Luck, veri.

  3. #3
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    BTW, thx for posting Veri.

    Appreciate it. If I'm in action, I'll be taking a long look at your plays.

  4. #4
    veriableodds
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    You to CHUCK sorry man just read thread now

  5. #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    You to CHUCK sorry man just read thread now
    Thx, Veri. You know I value your info.

    I'll be giving your plays significant consideration. I mentioned that I'm now in the stage of contemplating what biases there might be in the lines:

    1) The injury to Utah QB Rising is signficant. But it's the type of injury that most won't know how to react to. As if the Utes are now playing 10-on-11.

    2) You mentioned that your model said the Packers should easily be > 50/50 vs the Bears. Same type of thing. I think the public hangs on Rodgers' jock b/c he's been a big name (in the past). The QB delta may not be very big. Sort of like TBay last year, that was Tom Brady in name only.

  6. #6
    veriableodds
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    Wife and I just got back from vacation, on way back we stopped to see my dad also. 6 days before I could even make it back someone offers cash on one my properties... Well equites are near highs, I aint falling for that trick, had to find a place to park the money while beating inflation with no risk, till markets give back. Yeah well just to say last week has not been fun, more like bullshit

  7. #7
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    Wife and I just got back from vacation, on way back we stopped to see my dad also. 6 days before I could even make it back someone offers cash on one my properties... Well equites are near highs, I aint falling for that trick, had to find a place to park the money while beating inflation with no risk, till markets give back. Yeah well just to say last week has not been fun, more like bullshit
    Veri, SBR posters don't realize how smart you are. Keep loving life, my man.

    I'll ask you one probing question. Don't feel compelled to respond:
    *Contemplating an upgrade on my car. Let me know what you think.

    I have had a nice car for 3 yrs, really enjoy driving it. Was at the dealership for maintenance, browsed the lot. Couldn't believe the valuations:
    *I can get a sale of my Current car with very little depreciation loss from L3 years.
    *I can buy a new car that's about 1.60x of my current re-sale value.
    *And I can get 1.9% Financing on the new car.

    I wasn't looking at all really. But 1.9% sounds too good to be true. I might do it just to get the financing.

  8. #8
    veriableodds
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    wk1/ 3-2 / +0.32u

  9. #9
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Veri, SBR posters don't realize how smart you are. Keep loving life, my man.

    I'll ask you one probing question. Don't feel compelled to respond:
    *Contemplating an upgrade on my car. Let me know what you think.

    I have had a nice car for 3 yrs, really enjoy driving it. Was at the dealership for maintenance, browsed the lot. Couldn't believe the valuations:
    *I can get a sale of my Current car with very little depreciation loss from L3 years.
    *I can buy a new car that's about 1.60x of my current re-sale value.
    *And I can get 1.9% Financing on the new car.

    I wasn't looking at all really. But 1.9% sounds too good to be true. I might do it just to get the financing.

    Pretty sure you will make the correct decision on the car situation CHUCK. If you can remember it was covid I bought a 2016 Hyundai Elantra value edition w/85k miles from insurance auction ($2,700). Had bad hail damage on every panel. Went to a u-pull and pay and replaced all the panels for like real cheap. I removed the roof myself and installed new sheet metal , along with sunroof myself (tack welding, and a lot of grinding). Had it professionally painted, cleaned, along with replacement of drivers, and passenger seats. Tinted windows, and new tires. All this for less than 5k which includes the purchase price. Today runs like a champ just passed 100k miles

  10. #10
    veriableodds
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    One quick note here. Northwestern may be a good wager today+6.5/ Myself am not impulse wager type. Looking at lacking ranking stats from not fast and updated sites, clearly some kind of mismatch going on here.

  11. #11
    veriableodds
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    wk1/ 3-2 / +0.32u

    week-2
    9/9
    va/+8/-110
    j.madison/va/O43/-110
    utah/baylor/O47/-110
    utep/-1.5/-110
    tx st/utsa/U64.5/-110
    marshall/ml/-150
    cincinnati/+7.5/-110
    ga state/-3/-110
    az/+10.5/-110
    stanford/+30/-110
    okl st/az st/O53/-110
    11p risk-4.95u (0.45u each play)

  12. #12
    veriableodds
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    2 errors
    j.madison/va/O40.5/-110
    tx st/utsa/U66.5/-110
    *not 43
    *not 64.5
    Last edited by veriableodds; 09-05-23 at 05:19 PM. Reason: errorsx2

  13. #13
    veriableodds
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    wk2/ 7-4 +0.96u
    ytd/ 10-6 +1.28u

  14. #14
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    Pretty sure you will make the correct decision on the car situation CHUCK. If you can remember it was covid I bought a 2016 Hyundai Elantra value edition w/85k miles from insurance auction ($2,700). Had bad hail damage on every panel. Went to a u-pull and pay and replaced all the panels for like real cheap. I removed the roof myself and installed new sheet metal , along with sunroof myself (tack welding, and a lot of grinding). Had it professionally painted, cleaned, along with replacement of drivers, and passenger seats. Tinted windows, and new tires. All this for less than 5k which includes the purchase price. Today runs like a champ just passed 100k miles
    Thx, veri. I'll think about it.

    Just seems too good to be true to have access to 1.9% financing. I might do it.

  15. #15
    veriableodds
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    ytd/ 10-6 +1.28u

    wk3
    fl st/bst coll/U56.5/-110
    Mississippi state/+10/-110
    okl st/-7/-110
    byu/+11
    4 plays risk 1.52u (0.38u each play)
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat

  16. #16
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Veri, thx for posting. GL on your picks.

    I have a tangent question for you: *Have you ever studied the Sagarin ratings?

    If so, do you put any stock in his computer projections? Thx for any reply.

  17. #17
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Veri, thx for posting. GL on your picks.

    I have a tangent question for you: *Have you ever studied the Sagarin ratings?

    If so, do you put any stock in his computer projections? Thx for any reply.
    Actually, I use 7 different (computer) models, all custom made and use those to compare to live lines to find, compare value. Sagarin ratings, team rankings.com, statfox platinum, odds trader AI, accuscore ect ect they come all from the same seed. Some ratings update faster, slower than others. The more angles analyzed the better the model

  18. #18
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Great info, veri. GL.

  19. #19
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Thx for all your info, Veri.

    I'm happy to be profitable on the Coll FB plays I posted. I did a self-assessment of my process. I was forcing too many plays.

    Identified one area where I'm not capturing the information correctly. Trying to improve going forward.

    And thx for the picks. I'm observing and tailing where I think it's appropriate.
    Points Awarded:

    veriableodds gave ChuckyTheGoat 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  20. #20
    veriableodds
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    You have great talent CHUCK no doubts it can only get better if one learns from the loose ends. My wife self-evaluates me , 95% of the time I get the what for, and doghouse

  21. #21
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    You have great talent CHUCK no doubts it can only get better if one learns from the loose ends. My wife self-evaluates me , 95% of the time I get the what for, and doghouse
    Just explain to her that some of the greats in history were misunderstood:

    *Turing, Tesla, Einstein.

  22. #22
    veriableodds
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    *notes* no laziness, going to manually certify each pick model produces (literally looking @picks 2, or3 of them are not acceptable as in forward progression)
    wk/ 1-4 / -0.73
    ytd/ 11-10 / +0.49u

  23. #23
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    wk.4
    whisky/-7/-110
    air force/-3/-110
    wake forest/-6/-110
    ole miss/bama/O55/-110
    okl st/iowa st/O36/-110
    5 plays risk of 3.15u(0.63u per play)

  24. #24
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Salud, veri. Of course, I appreciate you posting your plays.

    My comments aren't Technical. Just some general observations:

    *OleMiss/Alab. Wow, I wonder where Saban is at on the QB situation?
    ...I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the 4q of the game at SoFla. Truly bizarre.
    ...I don't know if Saban was disciplining Milroe. Surely Milroe's absence last week ensures that he'll play THIS week.
    ...Between Buchner/Simpson, he could have played two cadavers. And I wouldn't have seen any difference.

    *OklaSt/IASt. I am going to look hard at your Over. It will be viewed as a Contrarian play.
    ...Both offenses struggled mightily last week.
    ...What people might miss is that the two opponents (SoAlab, OhioU) are both pretty good Mid-Major opponents.
    ...One has to think these offenses can do better. I don't think they can do any WORSE.

  25. #25
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    wk.4
    whisky/-7/-110
    air force/-3/-110
    wake forest/-6/-110
    ole miss/bama/O55/-110
    okl st/iowa st/O36/-110
    5 plays risk of 3.15u(0.63u per play)
    Nice hit on Wisky, veri.

    Call me crazy. Wisky on pace to break thru to the Top 4:
    1) Home game vs OhioSt.
    2) Rest of schedule is very managable.
    3) If they get to 11-1, win in Big10 Champ would secure them a Top 4 ticket.


  26. #26
    veriableodds
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    OH thanks CHUCK, heading into weekend 2-0 with 3 left. Should be able to update sunday, most likely monday. Been way to busy. Getting newly acquired 8 acres separated by surveyor so they become 2 tax entities (sell each side separate). Putting in driveway on the far one. Running extra electric, finishing some newly ran water lines, spray foam insulation like today on newly built house. Bringing 50-tons 1/2 gravel for driveway on built side also. Its all a fiasco cause the wife loves going with on material pickup trips. IM DOOMED CHUCK - have a good one buddy

  27. #27
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Ha-ha. Veri, I told you. The average SBR poster can't appreciate the depth of your talent.

    Have a great SAT/SUN.

  28. #28
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Salud, veri. Of course, I appreciate you posting your plays.

    My comments aren't Technical. Just some general observations:

    *OleMiss/Alab. Wow, I wonder where Saban is at on the QB situation?
    ...I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the 4q of the game at SoFla. Truly bizarre.
    ...I don't know if Saban was disciplining Milroe. Surely Milroe's absence last week ensures that he'll play THIS week.
    ...Between Buchner/Simpson, he could have played two cadavers. And I wouldn't have seen any difference.

    *OklaSt/IASt. I am going to look hard at your Over. It will be viewed as a Contrarian play.
    ...Both offenses struggled mightily last week.
    ...What people might miss is that the two opponents (SoAlab, OhioU) are both pretty good Mid-Major opponents.
    ...One has to think these offenses can do better. I don't think they can do any WORSE.
    I'm tailing the two totals. My thoughts above.

    Not surprisingly, the OleMiss/Alab Total went UP a little bit after Milroe was named Starter.

  29. #29
    veriableodds
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    wk/ 3-2 / +0.46u
    ytd/ 14-12 / +0.95u
    update later

  30. #30
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    ytd/ 14-12 / +0.95u

    w. Kentucky/-5/-110
    AR state/ml/+110
    jack st/sam houston/O36.5/-110
    utah/Oregon state/O44.5/-110
    va/bst coll/U54.5/-110
    5p risk 2.9u(0.58u each)

  31. #31
    veriableodds
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    "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"
    Lao Tzu

  32. #32
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    week/ 4-1 / +1.64u
    ytd/ 18-13 / +2.59u

  33. #33
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    Ncaaf
    Ill/-3/-110
    Mzzri/+7/-110
    C. Michigan/ml/-130
    N. TX/+7/-110
    Iowa/-2.5/-110
    S FL/ml/-170
    Fresno state/-5/-110
    purdue/iowa/O41/-110
    8 plays risk of 4.24u (0.53u each play)

  34. #34
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    wk/ 2-6 / -2.22u
    ytd/ 20-19 / +0.37u

    NCAAF
    n. mx st/ml/-190
    memphis/+3.5/-110
    michigan st/+6/-110
    iowa/+10.5/-110
    colorado st/+8/-110
    ar st/tide/O48.5/-110
    temple/n. tx/U70.5/-110
    ca/utah/O45/-110
    umass/penn st/U58/-110
    9 plays risk 4.14u (0.46u-each)

  35. #35
    veriableodds
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    wk/6-3 / +1.00u
    ytd/ 26-22 / +1.37u

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