Saturday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Sep 29)

**Willie Bee** · 09-26-07, 09:15 AM

Florida Atlantic +22½ at Kentucky

Game Time: 09/29/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Kentucky has pulled off back-to-back upsets of Louisville and Arkansas, rising to No. 15 in the polls. But look for the Florida Atlantic Owls to cover this week against the Wildcats.

Now ranked in the top 15 in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats are proving to be a pretty strong team. After blowing out a pair of relatively weak teams (Eastern Kentucky and Kent State) in their first two games, the Wildcats now come off back-to-back "upset" victories over a pair of top tier teams.

Two weeks ago, closing as five point underdogs, the Wildcats rallied to knock off Bluegrass rivals Louisville by a score of 40-34. Last week, at Arkansas, they fell behind 20-7 but came all the way back to finish with a 42-29 victory. While those victories have been rather impressive, this is a difficult scheduling situation for Kentucky. Off back-to-back upsets and with a national ranking, the players are surely reading the press clippings and are likely patting themselves on the back, at least a little.

They're also likely looking past a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference, as their next three games come against three of the best teams in the SEC -- South Carolina, LSU and Florida. That will prove costly though as the Florida Atlantic Owls are also playing extremely well. They lost badly at Oklahoma State. However, they beat Middle Tennessee State by double-digits and Minnesota by a field goal. Last week, they proved they could win on the road, knocking off North Texas by a score of 30-20 after overcoming a 10-point third quarter deficit.

The Owls are the most experienced team in the Sun Belt and have arguably the best coach. The last time the Wildcats faced a team from the Sun Belt (ULM on 11/18/06) they were favored by nearly three touchdowns and they won by a mere two points. Don't be surprised if this one is closer than expected once again. Consider taking the points with Florida Atlantic.

Free Pick: Florida Atlantic +22½

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:18 AM

NM Lobos (+5) versus BYU Cougars

Game Time: 09/29/2007 08:30 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

If you're looking for a home dog to follow this Saturday, then New Mexico at home in Albuquerque against BYU is your team. Take the Lobos and the points against the Cougars.

I am sold on New Mexico winning this one straight up in the underdog role at home. Weekly I look for outright dog winners. As I looked at a consensus poll with over 900 forum junkies, I saw that 70% sided with BYU, and the public is wrong more than they are right or Las Vegas and offshore books would be out of business. I like contrarian handicapping and going against public opinion.

BYU is a cover machine at 16-5-1 ATS their last 22 games. More times than not a trend like this starts to even out as oddsmakers play catch-up with inflated lines. This line opened at BYU -7½ and has dropped two points with many sharps already on New Mexico, but there is still line value at +5½.

The only loss for the Lobos was 10-6 loss to UTEP where they 'out-statted' the Miners in every category including 379 to 195 in total yards. New Mexico pounded Sacramento St. 57 -0 last week, and beat Arizona from the PAC-10 on the road. They have a great QB in Donovan Porterie with a 69% completion rate and only one pick all season along with 1088 yards. They have a higher yards per completion rate than BYU, and run the ball for 170 yards a game. The Lobos have allowed 17 ppg on defense for the season. A pretty solid team here and at home they will play well.

BYU is off a big win against Air Force who is one dimensional and the Cougars have had penalty and turnover issues all season, including 33 penalties in their last three games. The Cougars interestingly enough has also lost both of their road games this season to UCLA and Tulsa, and Tulsa is not all that good.

New Mexico-31 BYU-26. Take the points here for a free selection and the outright live dog winner of the week.

Free Pick: New Mexico +5 (-102)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:24 AM

Central Michigan Chippewas (-3) vs. Northern Illinois

Game Time: 09/29/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Larry Cook | touthouse.com

Kelly/Shorts Stadium is a death trap for many a team. Lay the points on Central Michigan at home Saturday when the Chippewas host the Northern Illinois Huskies.

Central Michigan just doesn’t lose at home. This team will roll right over Northern Illinois on their home turf Saturday.

Central Michigan is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a record below .500. Dan LeFevour has already passed for nearly 1,000 yards in four games this season. This is an explosive Chippewas offense that put up 52 points on Toledo at home in their first win of the season.

Chalk up win number two today over another 1-3 opponent in Northern Illinois. Bet Central Michigan.

Free Pick: Central Michigan -3 (-105)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:26 AM

Hawaii Warriors (-25) in a road rout at Idaho Vandals

Game Time: 09/29/2007 05:00 PM -
By: John Martin | touthouse.com

Colt Brennan and the Warriors are licking their chops as they head to the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, Idaho. Back Hawaii to win going away on the road against the Vandals.

Warriors quarterback Colt Brennan will torch this Idaho defense in ’07 just like Hawaii has each of the last three seasons.

Brennan threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns against Idaho last year. Hawaii is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the last three meetings and covered the 25½-point spread last season in a 68-10 blowout over the Vandals. The Warriors are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a losing record.

Idaho is 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games. The Vandals will get embarrassed by Brennan and Company once again this season. Cash in with Hawaii as the favorite.

Free Pick: Hawaii -25 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:55 AM

Syracuse (-1) at Miami-Ohio

Game Time: 09/29/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Syracuse is 9-0 against the spread since 1992 when facing a MAC opponent. Lay the point and back the Orange on the road in Oxford, OH, against the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.

After last week's huge road win against Lousiville 38-35, Syracuse heads into this contest against MAC opponent Miami (Ohio) with some new found confidence. That confidence comes after the Orange started the season with three straight non-conference losses.

The RedHawks, meanwhile, are coming off a 42-0 loss to Colorado. Look for the Orange (1-3) to win their second game against Miami (Ohio), a team they beat 34-14 at the Carrier Ddome last season.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Syracuse is 9-0 against the spread against MAC opponents since 1992, winning those contests by an average of 27.1 points per game. Play on Syracuse.

Free Pick: Syracuse -1 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:56 AM

Back Penn State (-3) at Illinois

Game Time: 09/29/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | procappers.com

This seems like a small number to lay on Penn State, even with them being on the road in Illinois. Back Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions Saturday over Ron Zook's Fighting Illini.

The Nittany Lions will bounce back this week against the Illini and really, I don’t even see this game being close.

Illinois is just 4-14 against the spread in home games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game on the season since 1992. A tough loss at Michigan last week has left a sour taste in Penn State’s mouths and they will wash it out with a big win on the road. Lay the points.

Free Pick: Penn State -3 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:57 AM

Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-10½) versus Indiana Hoosiers

Game Time: 09/29/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Iowa faces a critical test this Saturday against Indiana. Look for the Hawkeyes, behind a very solid defense, to win and cover at home against the visiting Hoosiers.

The Hawkeyes have some concerns on offense but the defense has proven that it is likely among the best in the Big Ten.

Iowa looks to avoid a three-game losing streak and they catch Indiana coming off a disappointing performance in a big game for the Hoosiers. Indiana upset Iowa last season 31-28 and there will be considerable focus on this matchup.

The Hawkeyes are 21-7 in home games and this becomes an absolutely critical game for Iowa. Indiana has a solid all-around team but key deficiencies were realized last week. Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate.

Free Pick: Iowa -10½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:58 AM

TCU Horned Frogs -10 vs Colorado St

Game Time: 09/29/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

TCU is a perfect 2-0 this season at home in Ft. Worth's Amon Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs will move to 3-0 following Saturday night's date with the Colorado State Rams.

TCU has owned the Colorado State Rams over the last three seasons with the Horned Frogs 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the three meetings.

The Frogs won by 31 and 27 points respectively the last two seasons. They just have too much talent with the players they recruit in the State of Texas for Colorado State to compete. TCU is 37-18 against the spread in their last 55 home games. Colorado State is 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests overall. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games as the underdog. TCU is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.

You will see how the Horned Frogs’ talent overwhelms CSU Saturday. Take TCU and lay the points.

Free Pick: TCU -10 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-27-07, 10:59 AM

USC Trojans -20½ at Washington

Game Time: 09/29/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

Washington has already shown they couldn't keep up with Ohio State and UCLA, and now the face the top team in the country. Look for #1 USC to win going away at the Huskies.

Washington is 6-22 against the spread off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992, and 11-28 ATS off a road loss since 1992 period. USC is 33-14 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game the past 15 seasons.

The Huskies have been crushed by Ohio State (33-14) and UCLA (44-31) in back-to-back weeks. Now, you’re about to see how much better USC is than those teams. Lay the points.

Free Pick: USC -20½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-28-07, 09:34 AM

Dog Buffaloes (+22½) vs. Sooners

Game Time: 09/29/2007 01:30 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

After a strong start with four big wins and covers, the Oklahoma Sooners should move to 5-0 after this one, but look for the Buffaloes to stay within the spread at home in Colorado.

Last we saw the Sooners, they were on their way to their fourth win and cover of the season after rolling Tulsa by a 62-21 final count. QB Sam Bradford looked fantastic, WR Juaquin Iglesias had a monster night, and the Oklahoma defense went on to only allow Golden Hurricanes head coach Todd Graham’s no huddle spread offense 21-total points on the night.

This Oklahoma club is humming on all cylinders right now, but I don’t like this spot in Boulder for them to be laying this kind of lumber. Especially with the Red River Shootoout on deck.

Colorado had themselves a bit of a breather last week as well after they dropped the bomb on the injury depleted Miami (OH) RedHawks, and sent them back to Oxford on the wrong end of a 42-0 whitewashing. Everything clicked for the Buffaloes as they outgained the Redhawks 634-139 and only allowed the visitors a total of six first downs. QB Cody Hawkins completed 19-of-30 passes for 275 yards, and threw a pair of TDs.

However, he threw two more INT’s to increase his season total to six which is just as many TDs he’s thrown on the year. He has to play much better this week. Every extra possession he personally hands over to Oklahoma will only make it that much harder for his club this afternoon, so look for the kid to give his head coach and dad Dan Hawkins a solid effort in the school's homecoming game.

Under Bob Stoops, Oklahoma has made a habit out of severely beating Colorado, and the Sooners have won the last five games these teams have played by an average of 22 PPG. Funny, isn’t the line here in that range? Anyway, with Dan Hawkins looking to instill toughness and confidence in his team, I foresee him challenging each and every one of his players to come out on the university’s big day and give the Sooners a challenge for a change.

This is an awful lot of points for Oklahoma to be laying with a Frosh QB, and Boulder isn’t the easiest place to go into and execute. The thin air has taken its toll on many a football team in the past, and this Sooners group is no different. Take a stab with the home team here as they serve up Oklahoma’s first ATS loss of the season, and pick up some much-needed confidence to tackle the rest of their Big 12 campaign.

Free Pick: Colorado +22½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-28-07, 09:36 AM

Play Pittsburgh (+6½) at Virginia

Game Time: 09/29/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Virginia's 3-1 record, including a 3-0 mark in ACC play, is very misleading. Take the Pittsburgh Panthers and the points Saturday night when they take on the Cavaliers at Scott Stadium.

Pittsburgh had a very ugly game last week against Connecticut as the Panthers were pounded no thanks to committing six turnovers, five during the final quarter. The Panthers actually outgained the Huskies 349-289 and forced a punt on every second half possession, but the miscues were too much to overcome.

Changes are being made this week for the offense and they are changes for the good as Pittsburgh will have its best players on the field which was not the case last week. Standout freshman running back LeSean McCoy would be featured more in the offense against Virginia. McCoy had only 11 carries Saturday and was not the starter at tailback. So far, McCoy has 65 carries for 417 yards (6.4 ypc) and five touchdowns.

Also, Pat Bostick will make his first career start in place of fellow freshman Kevan Smith. Bostick gave the Panthers' anemic offense a lift by completing 27-of-41 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown in the second half against Connecticut.

Virginia is 3-0 in the ACC but the Cavaliers are the biggest fraud in the country right now. They have defeated three rebuilding teams in the conference so that unblemished record is nothing to be overly impressed with. People are quickly forgetting how this team was completely manhandled in its opener at Wyoming as the Cavaliers were outgained by 325 yards. Last week against Georgia Tech, after gaining 175 yards on their first two possessions, the Cavaliers were held to just 179 yards the rest of the game.

Stupid mistakes are what have held Pittsburgh in check. Overall, the Panthers are a minus-9 in the turnover margin and 34 of the 51 points they have allowed are a direct result of turnovers, including 14 points on two interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns. Virginia has only eight takeaways through four games so it does not have the defense to continue this trend. The Cavaliers are allowing 358 ypg on defense and that includes 452 yards against Wyoming, who is averaging 357.3 ypg in its other games.

The Panthers have shown improvement on defense, as they are nationally ranked in numerous categories. They've allowed 51 points in the last two games but as mentioned before, 34 were off turnovers. Pittsburgh is allowing 251.2 ypg which is 11th in the country. The Panthers are eighth in passing efficiency defense and 20th in rushing efficiency defense (schedule taken into consideration). Pittsburgh has outgained three of its four opponents, the lone exception being just -35 yards against Michigan St.

The Panthers are 4-0 in their last four non-conference games while Virginia is 0-5 in its last five non-conference games. The loss against Connecticut puts the Panthers in very solid situation this week: Play on underdogs of 3½ to 10 points off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off two straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a great spot and a great price for the Panthers.

Free Pick: Pittsburgh +6½ (-105) 1 Unit

**Willie Bee** · 09-28-07, 09:42 AM

Back Iowa (-10½) versus Indiana

Game Time: 09/29/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Coming off a defeat in Wisconsin last Saturday, look for the Iowa Hawkeyes to have added incentive to pick up their first Big Ten win this week at home against the Indiana Hoosiers.

As much as I want to back this Hoosier club on a weekly basis due to the passing of head coach Terry Hoeppner whom I had a ton of respect for, I just can’t. Something is just not right with this group, and another long season looks to be in store for the Hoosier football program.

The Indiana offense is nowhere near as electric as it was a year ago. Watching them struggle offensively vs. a mediocre Illinois defense last week leads me to believe this unit has just flat out lost its confidence. Sure, four turnovers and going 5/15 on third down will kill any offense's mojo, but they’re just not playing with the same pep in their step from a year ago. Running into a stout Iowa defense is the last thing this teams psyche needs right now, and I foresee them having a very long day in Iowa City, especially since they beat the Hawkeyes outright at home last year as close to 20-point underdogs.

Iowa was forced to swallow a bitter mouthful of bad medicine last week in Wisconsin as they dropped a game to the Badgers they probably should have won. That makes it two defeats in a row for Kirk Ferentz’ men, and they’re not going to come into this game in the greatest of moods. In fact, they’ll most likely come in very ornery and ready to take their frustrations out on anyone that gets in their way. Those thinking they’ll just give up since they’ve already been handed a Big 10 loss, think again. This conference is wide open this year, and they can still grab a piece of the conference crown since they avoid both Michigan and Ohio State.

The game plan will be quite simple for the Hawkeyes. Control the clock with a ground attack and take advantage of a Hoosiers defense that has allowed opponents to rush for 121 YPG. Indiana allowed Illinois to run roughshod all over them to the tune of 288 yards last week, so look for Iowa's Albert Young to have a monster day.

On the flip side, Indiana won’t have much success on the ground themselves considering they were only able to churn out 134 yards on a less stout Illini defense last week. The Hawkeyes look to keep the big passing plays to James Hardy and Company to a minimum, and force the Hoosiers to make mistakes like they’ve done all year.

This is a major statement game for the Hawkeyes. It’s Homecoming and they’re already 0-1 in the Big Ten after last week. Indiana picked up a huge win for their program last year and Iowa has lived with that embarrassment throughout the last year. Today’s the day to repent for their sins and the Hawkeyes are going to roll to a dominating home win and cover.

Free Pick: Iowa -10½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 09-28-07, 09:43 AM

Ohio State Buckeyes, Minnesota Golden Gophers Under 61

Game Time: 09/29/2007 08:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Ohio State beat Minnesota 44-0 last season, and we are looking for a rather similar result here. That would be good enough for an easy Under at this very inflated total.

Both the Ohio State Buckeyes and Minnesota Golden Gophers have fared well offensively to this point, but we feel that this total is artificially inflated because of it.

Yes, Ohio State is averaging 37.2 points per game while Minnesota is averaging 35.5 points, but we do not expect the Gopher to come anywhere close to their average vs. a stout Buckeye defense that is allowing a microscopic 7.2 points per contest so far. In fact, we would not be surprised if this game is a carbon copy of the meeting between these teams last season, won by Ohio State 44-0.

That total output is about 17 points less than this posted total, and Ohio State has not been inclined to run up the score with a big lead. They put on the breaks early last week in a 58-7 thumping of Northwestern, and keep in mind that the Buckeyes scored on a fumble return and a kickoff return, and they also had a couple of short field set up by three Wildcat turnovers.

As long as flukey scores such as those are kept to a minimum here, we do not expect this contest to get out of the 50s.

Free Pick: Ohio State, Minnesota Under 61