Pags' Plays 9/22

[pags11]

tblues,

I assume you meant to address that to me and not imgv...lol...no big deal...no real opinion on the Michigan St. game, although I do think at 14 there was some value in Notre Dame...regarding Penn. St., I do have a small lean to them, but there are far better games on the board to bet than that one (in my humble opinion)...

bueller,

good to hear you are on board with Kentucky...GL to you the rest of the weekend...

am working on my write-up, should be posting it towards the end of the A&M vs. Miami game...

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Washington +9

Washington comes into this game off a tough defeat last weekend to Ohio St. For those of you that watched the game though, you probably saw a lot of positives in their performance. This is a much improved football team, especially on defense. UCLA comes into this game off a difficult loss where they were drubbed by Utah. It was a very puzzling game to me, one in which their QB Olson was beat-up, and a game in which they sustained some injuries to key players on both their defensive and offensive lines. I’m not a huge Tyrone Willingham fan, I’ll be honest. However, in comparison to my lack of faith in Karl Dorrel, Willingham ranks much higher on my list. Washington’s QB, Jake Locker, appears to be maturing quickly. He is a very elusive runner and also possesses a strong throwing arm. He will be the difference maker in this game. Washington’s defense is fast and extremely athletic, and they will attempt to attack UCLA’s suspect offensive line. I’m not sure whether Olson will start this game, due to headaches he’s had all week. This makes things very difficult for UCLA due to the fact that back-up Patrick Cowan is still recovering from a torn hamstring. Washington will bring it for all four quarters, and I’m not sure I can say the same about UCLA if they face some adversity early in the game. I’m taking Washington and the points here.

Kentucky +7.5

Has anyone really watched this Kentucky team play? They are a dynamic group on offense and their defense receives more criticism than it deserves. Andre Woodson continues to perform at a high level, proving to everyone that he’s one of the best QB’s (if not THE best) in the country. The respect most defenses have for his throwing arm, open up both the intermediate passing game and run game. RB Rafael Little is an extremely patient running back, and always keeps his feet moving. He’s backed up by capable Tony Dixon, who could start on several other SEC teams. I’m confident that WR Kennan Burton will be healthy for this one, as he was nursing a mild ankle sprain earlier in the week. Also, TE Tamme continues to be the unsung hero of Kentucky's offense. Kentucky’s run defense is actually better than most people give it credit for; it’s really their pass defense that struggles. I’m not sure that Casey Dick will be able to exploit Kentucky through the air, especially with leading receiver Marcus Monk still not healthy for this game. Arkansas’s trio of talented running backs will definitely present some problems for Kentucky, led by All-American Darren McFadden. I just feel that Kentucky’s senior laden team is on a mission and will find a way to stay in this game deep until the fourth quarter. I’ll take the touchdown plus and Kentucky in this one.

South Carolina +17

I want to first state that I do think that LSU is one of the most talented teams in the entire country. I have a tremendous amount of respect for what they’ve accomplished so far this year. That being said, I’ve been watching Steve Spurrier coach for a long time now, and I’m not sure there’s a better overall coach in the business. I think that LSU may have the best defense in the country, but I also think that South Carolina possesses one of the top 5 defenses in the country as well. I anticipate the Ol’ Ball coach slowing the game down with the short passing game and well designed running plays. It’s imperative that QB Blake Mitchell make sound decisions, as he will see a variety of blitzes from the LSU defense. RB’s Cory Boyd and Mike Davis will need to do a good job catching the ball out of the backfield as well. I think it’s also important to note that Les Miles is a great “bully” coach, but when he faces coaches more knowledgeable than him games have a tendency of staying closer than anticipated by most. This is something you must factor in when handicapping this particular game. South Carolina will need to survive the initial onslaught LSU will throw at them, and if they do, this could turn out to be a great ballgame.

Iowa +8.5

Yes, I understand Iowa lost last week to an inferior Iowa St. squad. If you’ve studied that series at all, you’ll see that ISU has dominated that one, especially ATS. I have been extremely impressed with Iowa’s defense thus far this season (ranked 5th in the country), which is more than I can say about Wisconsin’s defensive unit. QB Christensen has grown on me, and he’s got two talented tailbacks to work with in Albert Young and Damien Sims. If you’ve studied Wisconsin so far, you have to admit that this is far from the 7th ranked team in the nation. Struggling with UNLV and the Citadel in back to back weeks is simply unacceptable, especially when you are laying over a TD to a Big 10 rival. The loss of WR Luke Swann is an injury I don’t think has been emphasized enough in this game. I also think that Taylor Bennett, while efficient, doesn’t provide the same leadership on offense that John Stocco did. I think the coaching match up in this one is about even, much like I see the rest of this game. I’m anticipating a grind-it-out game and I just feel more comfortable taking the better defensive squad along with the points here.

UNLV +10.5

So Utah is a two TD home underdog + to UCLA and now they are laying double digits (or almost) on the road to UNLV? I’m just not sure I agree with the line swing here. Last week all I heard was that Utah was terrible (while I didn’t think they were completely terrible), and now I’m hearing what a legit team they are (which I don’t believe either). Utah is still without five main starters on offense, including QB Brian Johnson. There is talk that Johnson may be ready for this game, but I anticipate Utah starting Grady since he played so well last week. Aside from the second half barrage from Hawaii last week, UNLV’s defense has performed pretty well this season. I anticipate more of the same from them this week. QB Dixon is a much better fit in their offense, than the much heralded (and over hyped) Rocky Hinds. WR Ryan Wolfe is a playmaker, but can also go over the middle and make the tough catch. Lastly, it should be noted that both head coaches served on the Utah staff under Urban Meyer and I can definitely see a rivalry forming between these two schools. This is very much a situational play, but also a value play in my opinion. This game could end up being a good old fashion defensive battle. I’m going with UNLV and the points in this game.

Connecticut +7.5

OK, so Pitt had approximately 100 passing yards and was 0-12 on third down conversions vs. an average Big 10 squad, and now they are laying almost 10 points to a well-coached conference foe? I’m just not buying it (not to mention that the most Pitt has scored all year is 24, and that was against Grambling). I was very impressed with Pitt’s talented young RB, but that’s about it. They are down to their 2nd string QB and lost their only real playmaker at WR at the beginning of the year. Those of you that are putting a lot of stock into UConn’s performance last week vs. Temple need to understand that Temple is one of the more improved teams in the country. I have been impressed so far with UConn QB Jered Lorenzen, which is a position they really lacked stability in last year. RB Donald Brown is a good back, and his back-up Dixon has emerged as a nice change of pace back as well. Connecticut does a good job stopping the run, and will force Pitt to beat them through the air. I’m not sure they will be able to do so. Lastly, Randy Edsal is a good head coach and I don’t think I’ve ever laid my money on Pitt since “Wanny” became the coach there (this is a huge mismatch). I'm siding with Connecticut and the points in this game.

Indiana +3

Indiana is off to a 3-0 start and is really playing with a lot of confidence right now. It has to be noted that this team is highly motivated following the death of Coach Hep, in fact their motto for the season is “play 13”. The way I see this game is that I’ve got the home team, plus a FG, plus an underrated coach (not to mention one of the best receivers in the country, James Hardy). Ron Zook may be able to recruit, but he can’t seem to get his team prepared consistently vs. opponents of similar to better talent level. Indiana will attempt to contain Illinois running game (RB Mendenhall is a good one), and if they do so I’m not sure Juice Williams will be able to pass the ball consistently on the Indiana defense. QB Kelen Lewis (clone to Dennis Dixon from Oregon) really puts pressure on the defense with both his legs and his arm. I look for RB/KR Marcus Thigpen to make some plays to and take some of the heat off of Hardy near the goal line. Just to comment a bit more on James Hardy. He hasn’t really gotten going yet this year, yet he still has 5 TDs. The guy is 6-7, 220 lbs. and in my opinion is the single most difficult receiver in the country to try and defend. I think he ends up being the difference maker in this one. I’m siding with Indiana plus a FG in this match up.

[durito]

Solid picks and lines as usual. Good luck this week.

[Philavanh]

Nice write up Pags, like always good stuff. I'm liking all the teams and gonna be riding Washington, Indiana and South Carolina big.......lets hit em all this week!!!!!!!!!!

[pags11]

durito,

much appreciated and thank you...

phil,

for sure, let's get it done this week...

[dave11486]

Like most of them pags. GL this weekend.

[Hemlock21]

I didn't bet it but I'm thinking Washington on the ML over UCLA this weekend. +9 should be good. True Freshman is legit

GL

[imgv94]

writeups are extra good this week. Best of the season IMO.

I feel really good about all your plays except Kentucky.

[pokernut9999]

I think this will be a big week for you Pags. Good luck

[pags11]

dave,

glad to hear it...hope you cash some tickets this weekend bud...

hemlock,

yeah, I'm curious to see how healthy Cowan is going to be for this one...it should be a good game...

imgv,

thanks and BOL...hopefully Andre Woodson and crew will eventually make a believer out of you, but not until I cash off them some more...

pokernutt,

I'm hoping so too...appreciate the comment...GL to you this weekend...

[laxdjock]

Great write-ups!

I really like Wash at +9, but I can only get in at +6.5....so i'm stuck. I'm on the fence if I'm going to take it, I may buy the extra point.

I think LSU will continue to roll, but everything else looks good.

[pags11]

laxdj,

glad that you liked the write-ups...GL with whatever you decide on the Washington game, and hopefully the Ol' Ball Coach and his team bring it tomorrow vs. a very tough LSU team...

[tblues2005]

pags,

I meant you not imgv on that sorry about that, I guess I seen him on somewhere I did that by mistake.

Thanks for the opinion on Penn State and Michigan State. I just think Notre Dame is just plain awful, I don't know how they are going to score if they can't score against Michigan, I don't know how they are going to score vs. Michigan State.

As far as Kentucky, I really agree with you on them, I think they are very tough this year with Rich Brooks as coach there now a few years and he is doing very well now. I knew they were a dark horse since they did well in a bowl game last year. I like them getting +7 now and that looks good to me.

[Palon]

I sure hope Iowa covers, because I accidently bet on them twice.

GL Pags, to you and to me, well to US I guess.

[prickbeater101]

pags ohh buddy please stay away from South Carolina this week. I am not sure about their defense being that good. Hell they gave up over 250 yds rushing to a very average ULL team who then went on and lost to McNeese St the next weekend. Combine that with a overrated Blake Mitchell and this game could get very ugly very quickly. I do have all the respect and praise in the world for the ole ball coach and have been a fan of his for years. He does worry me. But I still don't think even he can keep this game close....Tigers by 21 in my opinion.....gl guys and gals

[laxdjock]

I'm thinking an LSU beatdown of U.SCar. I'm really hoping Indiana pulls it out.

[McBa1n]

Doh, I'm on Utah, Pitt and Illinois - usually I'm on the same as you. GL this week.

[SportNut]

Hello Board,

Gonna start posting these as soon as I get them. Write-ups to come later this week. Down 3 units total for the season, 11-12 W/L record. All plays this week are for 2.5 units. Here they are:

Washington +9
Kentucky +7.5
South Carolina +17
Iowa +8.5
UNLV +10.5
Connecticut +7.5
Indiana +3

GLTA.

I'm with you on Indiana this morning . Last week was a very stormy week

[Mr Nuts]

Im with you on Ind and south Car.Good luck

[laxdjock]

Indiana creeped down to +2, but I think they will win outright, though the ML was only +110, so I took the pts.

[Cyclone]

I like North Texas today (+7).

[onlooker]

I like North Texas today (+7).

I had a lean on them, but not going to bet it. Good luck with it.

[babaoriley]

Good writeups pags. I really like Troy -9 today, as well. Also, I don't trust this Texas team to do anything mind-blowing and I'll be taking Rice +38.5 if I decide to bet... I have 30-45 minutes to decide...

Best of luck to all of you.

[bueller]

Ucla?

The line dropped to-6 . I like this 1 now, UCLA is going to bitch slap Washington at home after last weeks embarrassment.
Any comments?

[onlooker]

The line dropped to-6 . I like this 1 now, UCLA is going to bitch slap Washington at home after last weeks embarrassment.
Any comments?

It dropped because of Ben Olson not playing. Cowan will get the start at QB. I hope he is good enough to win by 7 or more.

[imgv94]

Great call on UK

[austintx05]

luckier than shit on Iowa...how did you know the refs fixed that one?

[DrLuck]

congrats on a nice day pags11

[pags11]

imgv and dr. luck,

thanks for your comments...I ended up doing alright today going 5-2, up 7.5 units...for the year now the win loss record is 16-14, +4.5 units...Saturday plays next week will be for 3 units each...

[nep1293]

Nice week Pags, congrats

[pokernut9999]

I think this will be a big week for you Pags. Good luck

I was right, good job pags !!!

[imgv94]

16-14 +4.5 units.

Solid, I knew you were gonna have a good week.

[pags11]

nep, pokernut and imgv,

very much appreciated guys...thanks for the support...