Pags' Plays 9/22

**rjt721** · 09-16-07, 05:54 PM

I'll be with you on South Carolina, Iowa and UNLV. Actually like UCLA a bit at the current line (-5).

**pags11** · 09-16-07, 05:59 PM

rjt,

good to hear...yeah, I can see that UCLA/ Washington line settling around 7...

**imgv94** · 09-16-07, 06:04 PM

Washington +9
South Carolina +17
UNLV +10.5
Connecticut +7.5
Indiana +3

I'm on all these.

**LVHerbie** · 09-16-07, 06:53 PM

hey pag... just a quick question...

why are you talking all these dogs early? do you not agree with the idea of betting dogs late and favs early? I haven't started looking at the games for next week but will (as always) give you plays a strong look... GL (as always)...

**pags11** · 09-17-07, 04:11 AM

LVHerbie,

I'm not sure that I agree with that philosophy, although I once did...

I make lines on Sunday mornings (often times with other guys in this forum)...when I see the lines come out, I just use my best judgement and with these felt like I would be getting the best number in most of these...

**dante1** · 09-17-07, 08:46 AM

Pags

Hi buddy, thanks for your picks. Noticed you haven't been
discussing as much with the board lately. Not my business but I hope you are okay and that it is not health related. When you get my age this is what you think about? (lol)

I am not asking why or being intrusive just hope that you
are well, which is much more important than these games.

Take care and good luck

**onlooker** · 09-17-07, 12:10 PM

Good luck with you plays Pags.

Just not Washington ok?

I will be on UCLA. Just not sure what line yet, I hope better then -6.

**imgv94** · 09-17-07, 03:36 PM

As far as I know, healthwise Pags is fine.

**dante1** · 09-17-07, 05:52 PM

Good, thanks

**pags11** · 09-17-07, 09:12 PM

dante,

between watching games on Saturday, watching 30 or so games per week on tivo, handicapping games, reading box scores AND trying to run my business and have some semblence of of a personal life, it's tough to post a whole lot...I have mainly stuck to the college football forum, as that's my main focus...appreciate your concern...

onlooker,

I definitely think at UCLA -5 it's a different play, but as the line creeps back up to 7 I feel Washington again becomes the play...and with my subpar performance so far these first three weeks, I can only root for my plays bud...lol...

**pags11** · 09-17-07, 09:13 PM

again, I will post write-ups either Wed. or Thu. evening...busy doing research right now...talk to everyone more soon...

**hawk 5** · 09-17-07, 10:19 PM

where did you get +8.5 on Iowa?

**Wassymac** · 09-17-07, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by hawk 5

where did you get +8.5 on Iowa?

I'd guess Bookmaker but you can get +8 at 5dimes right now. Seems to be on the way back up

**hawk 5** · 09-17-07, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by Wassymac

I'd guess Bookmaker but you can get +8 at 5dimes right now. Seems to be on the way back up

bookmakers at +7

**Wassymac** · 09-17-07, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by hawk 5

bookmakers at +7

it opened at +9.5 over there...I'd imagine he got it shortly after

**swifty** · 09-17-07, 11:52 PM

I like them all goign to play some parlay on a 3 teams might win or lose I take that chance.

good luck to all.

**hawk 5** · 09-18-07, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by Wassymac

it opened at +9.5 over there...I'd imagine he got it shortly after

must of missed it

**pags11** · 09-18-07, 04:09 AM

hawk,

I grabbed some +8.5 at the BM close to when it opened...got some more +8 at matchbook today...

and wassymac, thanks bro...keep up the good work...

**hawk 5** · 09-18-07, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by pags11

hawk,

I grabbed some +8.5 at the BM close to when it opened...got some more +8 at matchbook today...

and wassymac, thanks bro...keep up the good work...

I see it at 8 at matchbook, going to hold out for more points.

**pags11** · 09-18-07, 09:58 PM

hawk,

I believe this line will be between 7.5 and 9 all week...I don't see it hitting 7 again and I don't see it hitting ten...

**onlooker** · 09-18-07, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by pags11

onlooker,

I definitely think at UCLA -5 it's a different play, but as the line creeps back up to 7 I feel Washington again becomes the play...and with my subpar performance so far these first three weeks, I can only root for my plays bud...lol...

I ended up getting the -6 this morning. I missed -5.5. Lines everywhere seemed to move to 6.5 and 7. I understand about the rooting part, I haven't had the best last two weeks myself.

**VolinArizona** · 09-19-07, 02:11 AM

Pags, you mention that UCLA -5 is a "different" play, and UW at +7 is something you'd lean to. In NCAAF, do you feel a 2 point swing is something that makes you change SIDES?!

My personal approach is this: let's say I'm on UCLA -5. The line hits UCLA -7. I just don't play it. 2 points isn't an edge, IMO. With the NFL, I think it is, but in NCAAF, with so many games and such talent differences, 2 points won't make me switch sides.

Your thoughts?

**imgv94** · 09-19-07, 03:11 AM

If UCLA wins by 5-6-7-8 or 9, the books are going to take a shit

**bueller** · 09-19-07, 08:54 AM

what do ya think about these

I've been reading your blog for a year now and it seems you guys do pretty well. What do you think of these?

Kentucky+7.5
Purdue -14
Oregon-17
Alabama -3.5

**pags11** · 09-19-07, 03:09 PM

volin,

what I mean by that comment is that under a TD, especially under 2 TD's, I feel some of the value is taking out of Washington here...I do feel this is a game they can win straight up, but I like the safety of having a full TD of insurance if you know what I mean. I do think due to the heavy action the books took on Washington, they wanted to attract UCLA money, thus moving the line down to five...I would take no less than 6.5 in this game, but I don't think this game will hit 7.5 again...

bueller,

the best you are going to be able to find with Kentucky right now is +7 (-115), I'm not sure you'll see 7.5...I think +6.5 and +juice or +7 (-110) is a solid play...I have no opinion on the Purdue game, I mean they've been playing well, but to ask them to lay two TD's in a conference game on the road is a bit much...Oregon's the only side I'd consider in that game, but the price is very steep and I like the fight Stanford's shown so far this year..slight lean to UGA, but I liked that play more at +4.5 but couldn't pull the trigger, I think this one lands right near the number...

onlooker,

congrats on grabbing a good number, just not sure UCLA's line holds up vs. the Washington D...we will see though on Saturday...GL...

**BuddyBear** · 09-19-07, 04:55 PM

Good luck Pags this weekend....

**pags11** · 09-19-07, 10:20 PM

appreciate it buddybear...will post my write-up tomorrow evening for those interested...

**DrLuck** · 09-19-07, 11:34 PM

gl pags11

**White_Tiger** · 09-20-07, 12:08 AM

Pags it's about time to breakthrough how about 6-1 this week?

GL.

**pags11** · 09-20-07, 02:09 AM

white tiger,

no doubt I'd like to do that as I'm getting kind of restless, lol...am hoping things pan out for us this weekend...thanks for your support...

doc,

thanks and GL to you as well...

**imgv94** · 09-20-07, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by White_Tiger

Pags it's about time to breakthrough how about 6-1 this week?

GL.

You know it's coming. I sure hope this week is it. I think it is.

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 02:45 AM

Well if it is, I sure hope the one is Washington.

**tblues2005** · 09-20-07, 07:18 AM

imgv,

I am a little surprised that you don't like Michigan State and Penn State this week. I do believe Notre Dame is just plain terrible and they are only 13 and a half dogs, as bad as they are playing currently they should be more I think. I was a little shocked that Penn State wasn't favored by more either.

**bueller** · 09-20-07, 02:20 PM

GL all

Thanks Pags11 GL on your picks! Grabbed the Kentucky game at +6.5 and I got the Purdue game at -13.5, which makes me feel a little better.
Any thought on tonights game.
I took Texas A&M +2.5 and the under 46