putting big money on 2 plays today!!!!!

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  • capper123
    Restricted User
    • 10-21-09
    • 434

    #1
    putting big money on 2 plays today!!!!!
    im going to put 1000 on smu +13 and 1000 on the over 72. these 2 plays are destined to win for me. ive been doing good and just feel like going crazy! its christmas time go big or go home. like always leave your comments!
  • wallyjones2009
    Restricted User
    • 03-03-09
    • 280

    #2
    I like it
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      Am i the only one that can't find a 13 on SMU?

      I see 12.5s and 12s, with line trending downward
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Oh i do like SMU a lot.
        Comment
        • BigdaddyQH
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-13-09
          • 19530

          #5
          First, who is giving you 13 points? All I see is 12 to 12.5. I think that this will be a lower scoring game than most people think. Nevada lost two of their best RB's. That means an attack that will have to grind it out, not a quick striking attack. That takes time. SMU will be pass happy, which may, or may not work. Both of your plays are way too risky, if you are going all in, a terrible idea at any time. If you reallyhave been doing good, like you claim, you would not be making this type of wager. This is a suicide type of wager, not a wager made by someone who is making money. People who wager like yourself make people who wager like myself a lot of money. I have no play on this game, but unfortunately for you, everyone in here seems to be jumping on SMU, just like most of them did with Cal, Oregon State, and Fresno State. GL. Hope you win, but I think you should be happy with a split.
          Comment
          • BigdaddyQH
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-13-09
            • 19530

            #6
            Originally posted by LT Profits
            Oh i do like SMU a lot.
            I can not find SMU at +13 either. I really question people who find these 1/2-1 point differences, like that is going to be the difference in the game. The problem with SMU is that everyone likes them in here, and lately that has been the kiss of death. Pass.
            Comment
            • mcbaseball10
              SBR MVP
              • 02-11-09
              • 2866

              #7
              Bodog at 13 but has it priced at -115
              Comment
              • ezmoney
                SBR MVP
                • 09-26-09
                • 1564

                #8
                Pass on the side, going small on the UNDER 72.
                Comment
                • BigdaddyQH
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-13-09
                  • 19530

                  #9
                  Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                  Bodog at 13 but has it priced at -115
                  This is why I always post which book I got odds at that are different from the norm. Example. You can get 'Bama at-3.5 at the Hilton book now. When I took the 3.5, I spedifically named the Hilton book as my source.

                  To be honest, many people who conviently forget to tell us how much vig they are laying do so to try and pad their stats. They conviently forget that what they have done is basically bought a half point or more. That tells me two things. Either they do not gamble at all, and just cruise the websites looking for the best lines, or they are trying to pad their stats, by forgetting the extra vig that they bought, if they lose a wager. YOu see this many times in these forums. What people fail toremember is for every half point you buy, you are potentially giving away 5%.
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    I am not funded at Blow-Dog, I prefer +12 +100 at 5 Dimes to +12.5 -110
                    Comment
                    • BigdaddyQH
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-13-09
                      • 19530

                      #11
                      I think that the +100 is a better wager, considering you are getting 10% for a half point, and the number is not a critical number. If you must wager this game, the +12 is the way to go.
                      Comment
                      • ouman101
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-02-09
                        • 2815

                        #12
                        Originally posted by capper123
                        im going to put 1000 on smu +13 and 1000 on the over 72. these 2 plays are destined to win for me. ive been doing good and just feel like going crazy! its christmas time go big or go home. like always leave your comments!
                        So I take it having both Lippincott and Taua out for Nevada doesn't scare you that Nevada may not put up as many points as normal? Your basically taking 200 yards away from them, and hoping that it is going to be made up somewhere else.
                        Comment
                        • Night-Tripper
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-14-09
                          • 3205

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                          I can not find SMU at +13 either. I really question people who find these 1/2-1 point differences, like that is going to be the difference in the game. The problem with SMU is that everyone likes them in here, and lately that has been the kiss of death. Pass.
                          .5 points have been the difference between winning and losing quite a few bets in the past few weeks.

                          12/24/09211SMU
                          +415+13 Over 73 20:00 ET212Nevada
                          -525-13 Under 73
                          Comment
                          • Night-Tripper
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-14-09
                            • 3205

                            #14
                            Originally posted by ouman101
                            So I take it having both Lippincott and Taua out for Nevada doesn't scare you that Nevada may not put up as many points as normal? Your basically taking 200 yards away from them, and hoping that it is going to be made up somewhere else.
                            You're kidding, right?
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                              You're kidding, right?
                              What do you mean? It is a valid point and a strong reason why I like SMU catching double-digits. Nevada's leading rusher is now their QB.
                              Comment
                              • ouman101
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-02-09
                                • 2815

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                You're kidding, right?
                                About what? You take two guys that are averaging 100 yards a game and they are both out. Yes, they still have one good RB, but their losing 2 play makers. I'm still up in the air about what I think about the under/over, which is why I posed the question: "Do you still think they are going to put up as many points as they have all season?"
                                Comment
                                • Night-Tripper
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-14-09
                                  • 3205

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ouman101
                                  About what? You take two guys that are averaging 100 yards a game and they are both out. Yes, they still have one good RB, but their losing 2 play makers. I'm still up in the air about what I think about the under/over, which is why I posed the question: "Do you still think they are going to put up as many points as they have all season?"
                                  In my opinion, the Nevada offense isn't going to miss a beat.
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                    In my opinion, the Nevada offense isn't going to miss a beat.
                                    Because?
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ouman101
                                      Yes, they still have one good RB
                                      Who? Their third 1000-yard rusher is their QB.
                                      Comment
                                      • ouman101
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-02-09
                                        • 2815

                                        #20
                                        Yeah, I'm interested in your take on this as well. The more I think about it, its like taking Ronnie Brown out of Miami's offense, and saying that it will have no effect. No the exact same offense, but pretty close.
                                        Comment
                                        • Night-Tripper
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-14-09
                                          • 3205

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                          Because?
                                          Because it's the system. The Wolfpack is going to plug-in the two new RB's and Kaepernick is going to continue to do his thing.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                            Because it's the system. The Wolfpack is going to plug-in the two new RB's and Kaepernick is going to continue to do his thing.
                                            That will be put to the test tonight (whether it''s the players or the system I mean), but I don't believe a system can guarantee a player rushes for 1000 yards, the players have to have something to do with that. I think there simply has to be at least SOME drop-off with their backups.
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              Nice debate though Tripper.

                                              Comment
                                              • Serbone
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-21-09
                                                • 1300

                                                #24
                                                Unless you have solid info on the two replacement RB's, it is hard to say what they will do... is it possible that Nevada is 4 deep in excellent RB's?
                                                Doubtfull.
                                                But maybe # 3 WILL do OK, and maybe the OL and scheme and the shifty QB helped make #1 and # 2 look so good.
                                                Losing # 1 and # 2 will have a negative impact on the offense, but if # 3 is capable, impact might be minor.
                                                Does anyone know about # 3 RB?
                                                Comment
                                                • Night-Tripper
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-14-09
                                                  • 3205

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  Nice debate though Tripper.

                                                  Thanks dude. I'm playing Nevada because I've closely followed SMU and their QB's don't impress me. As crappy as the Wolfpack defense is, I'm betting on them being able to slow down the Pony offense enough to outscore them by at least two TD's. Bo Levi Mitchell doesn't have a strong arm and he makes poor decisions. If you are going to bet on the Ponies, do it because of the Nevada defense, NOT because the Wolfpack will be missing two RB's. Nevada has shuttled their RB's all year... they're simply going to be shuttling two new kids tonight. The QB is the key and the zone read is all about his decision making capability. Look for one of the two new RB's to have a HUGE day.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Night-Tripper
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-14-09
                                                    • 3205

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                    That will be put to the test tonight (whether it''s the players or the system I mean), but I don't believe a system can guarantee a player rushes for 1000 yards, the players have to have something to do with that. I think there simply has to be at least SOME drop-off with their backups.
                                                    Look at it this way... was there a drop off when Nevada swapped one RB for the other during the regular season?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mac4Lyfe
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-04-09
                                                      • 48373

                                                      #27
                                                      72 is a lot of points, I don't care who's playing. I'm on Nevada -12.5 but don't feel good about it (especially with the line dropping like a thermometer in winter). I'm not going to touch the Over and hope my gameline fares well. BOL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Night-Tripper
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-14-09
                                                        • 3205

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Serbone
                                                        Unless you have solid info on the two replacement RB's, it is hard to say what they will do... is it possible that Nevada is 4 deep in excellent RB's?
                                                        Doubtfull.
                                                        But maybe # 3 WILL do OK, and maybe the OL and scheme and the shifty QB helped make #1 and # 2 look so good.
                                                        Losing # 1 and # 2 will have a negative impact on the offense, but if # 3 is capable, impact might be minor.
                                                        Does anyone know about # 3 RB?
                                                        Lampford Mark is a 6-1/200 burner...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Night-Tripper
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-14-09
                                                          • 3205

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                                          72 is a lot of points, I don't care who's playing. I'm on Nevada -12.5 but don't feel good about it (especially with the line dropping like a thermometer in winter). I'm not going to touch the Over and hope my gameline fares well. BOL
                                                          Relax... it's all good.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LLXC
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-10-06
                                                            • 8972

                                                            #30
                                                            SMU and Under for me. GL.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • paste_me
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-11-09
                                                              • 1832

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by LLXC
                                                              SMU and Under for me. GL.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stefan084
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-21-09
                                                                • 1490

                                                                #32
                                                                Big Daddy QH do you ever have anything good to say or do you just piss on everyones fun? Seriously you seem like a miserable person
                                                                Comment
                                                                • easyaxess
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 03-26-07
                                                                  • 164

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by capper123
                                                                  im going to put 1000 on smu +13 and 1000 on the over 72. These 2 plays are destined to win for me. Ive been doing good and just feel like going crazy! Its christmas time go big or go home. Like always leave your comments!
                                                                  good luck!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stefan084
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-21-09
                                                                    • 1490

                                                                    #34
                                                                    good luck on your bet and god bless us every one--merry christmas gamblers
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • zagat
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-16-09
                                                                      • 74

                                                                      #35
                                                                      i think i'll be a teasin this one!
                                                                      Comment
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