putting big money on 2 plays today!!!!!

**wallyjones2009** · 12-24-09, 10:13 AM

I like it

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 10:13 AM

Am i the only one that can't find a 13 on SMU?

I see 12.5s and 12s, with line trending downward

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 10:14 AM

Oh i do like SMU a lot.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 10:17 AM

First, who is giving you 13 points? All I see is 12 to 12.5. I think that this will be a lower scoring game than most people think. Nevada lost two of their best RB's. That means an attack that will have to grind it out, not a quick striking attack. That takes time. SMU will be pass happy, which may, or may not work. Both of your plays are way too risky, if you are going all in, a terrible idea at any time. If you reallyhave been doing good, like you claim, you would not be making this type of wager. This is a suicide type of wager, not a wager made by someone who is making money. People who wager like yourself make people who wager like myself a lot of money. I have no play on this game, but unfortunately for you, everyone in here seems to be jumping on SMU, just like most of them did with Cal, Oregon State, and Fresno State. GL. Hope you win, but I think you should be happy with a split.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Oh i do like SMU a lot.

I can not find SMU at +13 either. I really question people who find these 1/2-1 point differences, like that is going to be the difference in the game. The problem with SMU is that everyone likes them in here, and lately that has been the kiss of death. Pass.

**mcbaseball10** · 12-24-09, 10:24 AM

Bodog at 13 but has it priced at -115

**ezmoney** · 12-24-09, 10:37 AM

Pass on the side, going small on the UNDER 72.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by mcbaseball10

Bodog at 13 but has it priced at -115

This is why I always post which book I got odds at that are different from the norm. Example. You can get 'Bama at-3.5 at the Hilton book now. When I took the 3.5, I spedifically named the Hilton book as my source.

To be honest, many people who conviently forget to tell us how much vig they are laying do so to try and pad their stats. They conviently forget that what they have done is basically bought a half point or more. That tells me two things. Either they do not gamble at all, and just cruise the websites looking for the best lines, or they are trying to pad their stats, by forgetting the extra vig that they bought, if they lose a wager. YOu see this many times in these forums. What people fail toremember is for every half point you buy, you are potentially giving away 5%.

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 11:13 AM

I am not funded at Blow-Dog, I prefer +12 +100 at 5 Dimes to +12.5 -110

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-24-09, 11:31 AM

I think that the +100 is a better wager, considering you are getting 10% for a half point, and the number is not a critical number. If you must wager this game, the +12 is the way to go.

**ouman101** · 12-24-09, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by capper123

im going to put 1000 on smu +13 and 1000 on the over 72. these 2 plays are destined to win for me. ive been doing good and just feel like going crazy! its christmas time go big or go home. like always leave your comments!

So I take it having both Lippincott and Taua out for Nevada doesn't scare you that Nevada may not put up as many points as normal? Your basically taking 200 yards away from them, and hoping that it is going to be made up somewhere else.

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I can not find SMU at +13 either. I really question people who find these 1/2-1 point differences, like that is going to be the difference in the game. The problem with SMU is that everyone likes them in here, and lately that has been the kiss of death. Pass.

.5 points have been the difference between winning and losing quite a few bets in the past few weeks.

12/24/09211SMU
+415 +13 Over 73 20:00 ET212Nevada
-525 -13 Under 73

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by ouman101

So I take it having both Lippincott and Taua out for Nevada doesn't scare you that Nevada may not put up as many points as normal? Your basically taking 200 yards away from them, and hoping that it is going to be made up somewhere else.

You're kidding, right?

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

You're kidding, right?

What do you mean? It is a valid point and a strong reason why I like SMU catching double-digits. Nevada's leading rusher is now their QB.

**ouman101** · 12-24-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

You're kidding, right?

About what? You take two guys that are averaging 100 yards a game and they are both out. Yes, they still have one good RB, but their losing 2 play makers. I'm still up in the air about what I think about the under/over, which is why I posed the question: "Do you still think they are going to put up as many points as they have all season?"

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by ouman101

About what? You take two guys that are averaging 100 yards a game and they are both out. Yes, they still have one good RB, but their losing 2 play makers. I'm still up in the air about what I think about the under/over, which is why I posed the question: "Do you still think they are going to put up as many points as they have all season?"

In my opinion, the Nevada offense isn't going to miss a beat.

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

In my opinion, the Nevada offense isn't going to miss a beat.

Because?

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by ouman101

Yes, they still have one good RB

Who? Their third 1000-yard rusher is their QB.

**ouman101** · 12-24-09, 12:55 PM

Yeah, I'm interested in your take on this as well. The more I think about it, its like taking Ronnie Brown out of Miami's offense, and saying that it will have no effect. No the exact same offense, but pretty close.

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Because?

Because it's the system. The Wolfpack is going to plug-in the two new RB's and Kaepernick is going to continue to do his thing.

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Because it's the system. The Wolfpack is going to plug-in the two new RB's and Kaepernick is going to continue to do his thing.

That will be put to the test tonight (whether it''s the players or the system I mean), but I don't believe a system can guarantee a player rushes for 1000 yards, the players have to have something to do with that. I think there simply has to be at least SOME drop-off with their backups.

**LT Profits** · 12-24-09, 01:05 PM

Nice debate though Tripper.

**Serbone** · 12-24-09, 01:11 PM

Unless you have solid info on the two replacement RB's, it is hard to say what they will do... is it possible that Nevada is 4 deep in excellent RB's?
Doubtfull.
But maybe # 3 WILL do OK, and maybe the OL and scheme and the shifty QB helped make #1 and # 2 look so good.
Losing # 1 and # 2 will have a negative impact on the offense, but if # 3 is capable, impact might be minor.
Does anyone know about # 3 RB?

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Nice debate though Tripper.

Thanks dude. I'm playing Nevada because I've closely followed SMU and their QB's don't impress me. As crappy as the Wolfpack defense is, I'm betting on them being able to slow down the Pony offense enough to outscore them by at least two TD's. Bo Levi Mitchell doesn't have a strong arm and he makes poor decisions. If you are going to bet on the Ponies, do it because of the Nevada defense, NOT because the Wolfpack will be missing two RB's. Nevada has shuttled their RB's all year... they're simply going to be shuttling two new kids tonight. The QB is the key and the zone read is all about his decision making capability. Look for one of the two new RB's to have a HUGE day.

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That will be put to the test tonight (whether it''s the players or the system I mean), but I don't believe a system can guarantee a player rushes for 1000 yards, the players have to have something to do with that. I think there simply has to be at least SOME drop-off with their backups.

Look at it this way... was there a drop off when Nevada swapped one RB for the other during the regular season?

**Mac4Lyfe** · 12-24-09, 01:18 PM

72 is a lot of points, I don't care who's playing. I'm on Nevada -12.5 but don't feel good about it (especially with the line dropping like a thermometer in winter). I'm not going to touch the Over and hope my gameline fares well. BOL

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Unless you have solid info on the two replacement RB's, it is hard to say what they will do... is it possible that Nevada is 4 deep in excellent RB's?
Doubtfull.
But maybe # 3 WILL do OK, and maybe the OL and scheme and the shifty QB helped make #1 and # 2 look so good.
Losing # 1 and # 2 will have a negative impact on the offense, but if # 3 is capable, impact might be minor.
Does anyone know about # 3 RB?

Lampford Mark is a 6-1/200 burner...

**Night-Tripper** · 12-24-09, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

72 is a lot of points, I don't care who's playing. I'm on Nevada -12.5 but don't feel good about it (especially with the line dropping like a thermometer in winter). I'm not going to touch the Over and hope my gameline fares well. BOL

Relax... it's all good.

**LLXC** · 12-24-09, 03:42 PM

SMU and Under for me. GL.

**paste_me** · 12-24-09, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by LLXC

SMU and Under for me. GL.

**stefan084** · 12-24-09, 05:14 PM

Big Daddy QH do you ever have anything good to say or do you just piss on everyones fun? Seriously you seem like a miserable person

**easyaxess** · 12-24-09, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by capper123

im going to put 1000 on smu +13 and 1000 on the over 72. These 2 plays are destined to win for me. Ive been doing good and just feel like going crazy! Its christmas time go big or go home. Like always leave your comments!

good luck!

**stefan084** · 12-24-09, 06:14 PM

good luck on your bet and god bless us every one--merry christmas gamblers

**zagat** · 12-24-09, 06:19 PM

i think i'll be a teasin this one!