Pags' Plays 10/32

**braves25** · 10-09-09, 12:43 AM

Pags:

Thanks for all the work you do for us. I'm a novice at this, and your insight really helps.

I actually saw your Colorado St pick on Monday, and started to do a little research on it. I don't care that Utah has had two weeks to prepare for this game, the fact that they lost their running back sold it for me. There offense is centered around Asiata. When you add in the fact that this is a road game in the altitude it makes this a great pick. I got Colo St. at +7.............

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 12:45 AM

Connecticut +8.5

I’ve made a living betting games like this in the Big East for the past decade and don’t see any reason to stop doing so now. Anytime I can get a well-coached, solid defensive club who travels well getting over a TD against a talented but undisciplined team I’ve got to give the game serious consideration. Randy Edsal, many of you who claim to have a luck box, is just a really good football coach. He goes unnoticed because his style of play is very conservative and isn’t flashy, but it wins football games and covers spreads. While I think that “the Stache” has some good assistants and has recruited well in the offseason, anytime I can get points like these from one of his teams my mouth starts to water. Connecticut has a very strong defense and they are a team that has matched up well with Pittsburgh over the years. I like that they have had a week off to prepare for this game and catch Pittsburgh off a road victory at Louisville, in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. This game will feature two very talented running backs in UConn’s Jordan Toddman (5.0 ypc., 5 TD) and Pitt’s Dion Lewis (5.4 ypc., 7 TD). What this means is there will be a lot of handing off in this game, particularly if the weather isn’t good, and there will be less clock stoppages which will shorten the game. I give the edge on defense and special teams to UConn and the edge on offense to Pitt. Just like in baseball, you are better off going with the better defense as I believe offense wins games and defense wins championships. Give me Randy Edsal and the luckbox in this one please.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 01:01 AM

Wisconsin +14

I’ll try to break this game down as simple as possible. A team like Ohio State has been covering the number week after week of late and each week the odds maker has to inflate the line of a team like this to keep betting action from becoming so one-sided on the favorite. Think about it like this, Ohio State is laying more points to a solid Wisconsin team than they were to Ron Zook’s pathetic Illinois squad. Does that make any sense? It doesn’t necessarily mean that Wisconsin is in for an easy game but they are a team that believes in themselves and to give them two plus TD’s in a conference game, albeit on the road at the Horseshoe, is a play I have to make. I respect OSU’s run defense and think that Wisconsin will have limited success on the ground, but I do think Wisconsin can move the ball some against the OSU secondary. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien (65.6% comp., 9 TD/3 INT) is a solid QB and has the kind of moxie it takes to come into the Horseshoe and make plays. I like Nick Toon (22 rec., 12.2 ypr., 2 TD, Al Toon’s kid, who could make a couple of big plays and TE Garrett Graham (23 rec., 11.7 ypr., 4 TD) is one of the Big Ten’s best. Throw in two more quality WR’s in Isaac Anderson (12 rec., 21.3 ypr., 1 TD) and Lance Kendricks (12 rec., 11.3 ypr., 2 TD) and the OSU secondary could have a harder time getting the Wisconsin offense of the field than most people think. Don’t get me wrong, Wisconsin isn’t going to abandoned the run as they have two quality backs in John Clay (5.2 ypc., 7 TD) and Zach Brown (4.1 ypc., 3 TD), it’s just going to be tough to break any big plays with their ground game. Brett Bielema against Jim Tressel is actually a great coaching match-up, I even give a slight edge to the way Wisconsin has been calling plays vs. the way OSU has centered their entire offense around QB Terrelle Pryor (57.9% comp., 8 TD/5 INT, 5.4 ypc., 3 TD). RB Daniel Herron (3.6 ypc., 5 TD) should play, but he’s coming off an ankle injury, which leaves two other playmakers on the field in WR’s Dane Sazenbacher (14 rec., 4 TD) and DeVier Posey (19 rec., 2 TD). Wisconsin’s defense is by no means stout, but they don’t give up the big play very often either. In a conference tilt like this, getting this many points, all you need Wisconsin to do is be competitive, not perfect.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 01:06 AM

Kentucky +11.5

The SEC is a very competitive league week in and week out and when you get two teams of comparable talent level against eachother and one of the teams is getting double digits you have to give the dog a look. Kentucky has played two of the best teams in the country the past two weeks in Florida and Alabama and you have to think that the game will slow down for them a bit this week when they take on Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina team. Kentucky coach Rich Brooks is type of coach you want to play on in the dog role, on the road, as he usually has a couple of tricks up his sleeve. This is good because the Head Ball Coach will probably have a few of his own. Both teams have injuries to their defensive units which could lead to more scoring than some would anticipate. I feel this is one of the better value plays on the board this week as Kentucky is one of the best 2-2 teams in the country and South Carolina has started to get some public love. I’ll keep this one short and sweet.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 01:13 AM

Duke +15

The ACC is another conference that has a lot of parody and when I can get an improving, well-coached Duke team with a senior QB, a underrated defense and a solid running game I’ve got to give them the chance to cover two TD’s plus against another team who is getting a lot of public love in NCSU. Many of you who were around last year know how much respect I have for NCSU head coach Tom O’Brien and his talented QB Russell Wilson (59.5% comp., 14 TD/2 INT). While I think the NCSU team is an improved one from last year, I think in the public’s eye they have started to become overvalued. I see issues with the NCSU secondary that I feel Duke senior QB Thadius Lewis (57.7% comp., 7 TD/ 2 INT) can exploit. I also see issues with NCSU’s offensive line, and to go against a favorite who is going to have a tough time consistently running the football the backdoor will always be open if Duke happens not to play well (although I definitely anticipate them bringing their A game). There will be points scored in this game but I’m confident enough that Duke will be able to move the ball enough to stay within the number in what could be a closer than the experts type of game.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 01:23 AM

SMU +6.5

June Jones is doing it again. He’s resurrecting a program out of nowhere and as I watched last week’s SMU game I saw a renewed energy in the SMU program not seen since the days of the Pony Express. Jones has this team believing and after going toe-to-toe with TCU last week they believe they can compete on the field with anyone in the country. They are fortunate to catch an ECU squad who will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks. I can’t stress enough how critical of a situational spot this is, combined with the perception that ECU is a great team and SMU is below average. I’m not sure there is a whole lot of difference between these two teams and I’m getting the motivated home team catching almost a TD. SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell (57.8% comp., 8 TD, 10 INT) has improved and his understanding of Jones’ system is much better than last year. RB Shawnbrey McNeal (4.5 ypc., 2 TD) has helped create more balance on offense than last year which should put some pressure on ECU’s defense. The running game could soften up the defense and allow outstanding WR’s Emmanuel Sanders (43 rec., 10.8 ypr., 2 TD) and Aldrick Robinson (14 rec., 13.4 ypr., 1 TD) to make some plays in the passing game. I have watched ECU QB Patrick Pickney (55.3% comp., 4 TD/ 5 INT) and he’ not throwing the ball particularly well, nor is the ECU offensive line creating many holes in the running game. ECU is a team struggling to score points right now and their defense is getting worn down. Skip Holtz has to be pulling his hair out this week as he has a good idea he will be lucky to escape out of Dallas with a victory against June Jones’s young squad.

**lb49ers** · 10-09-09, 01:23 AM

Good write-ups Pags...I'll be on them as well...Good luck!

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 01:25 AM

braves25,

you're welcome and GL...

lb49ers,

**Ulver86** · 10-09-09, 01:41 AM

im on you with Wisconsin and Kentucky for sure this week, still deciphering some other games, great writeups as always

**thegambler86** · 10-09-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by pags11

Michigan +7.5

I’m not sure about the rest of the nation, but as I watched last week’s Michigan game I was extremely impressed with the grittiness of this team, particularly with QB Tate Forcier. I was very young with Fran Tarkington was playing for the Minnesota Vikings, but when I watch highlights of Tarkington play and then watch Forcier play their styles are very similar. I’ve said before and stick to the belief that having a mobile quarterback in college football makes an offense so difficult to defend, because most defenses don’t account for the quarterback. What I mean by that is that it’s usually eleven defenders on ten offensive players. Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense worked masterfully at WVU and has really started to show promise now at Michigan. He has recruited athletes who fit the mold of his style of offense, and has a couple of holdover running backs from the old regime to help create more offensive balance. While I expect RB Carlos Brown (7.6 ypc., 3 TD) not to play much in this game I am hopeful that Michigan Brandon Minor (5.1 ypc., 2 TD) will make his first start of the season. When fully healthy, he is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten. QB Denard Robinson (5.3 ypc., 3 TD) adds an interesting dimension to the Michigan offense, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see times where both him and Forcier are in the huddle together this week. What I didn’t realize until last week is that Michigan has some really good young WR’s. When I see a veteran like Greg Matthews sixth on the team in receptions I know the guys in front of him are pretty talented. Michigan has had seven different players catch passes thus far this season showing the depth of the receiving corps. I am very much aware that Iowa is a solid defensive club but I’m not sure they have faced an offense with as much potential firepower as Michigan’s. I also like Michigan’s special teams play, their field goal kicker impressed me last week in addition to their other units. Much has been made about Michigan’s defense, but I see the weakness in their defense not in their run defense (which I think is quite good), but with their secondary. Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi (58.6% comp. 8 TD/7 INT)is terrific, I won’t argue that, but he’s not the type of guy who’s going to bomb 40 throws in a game. Iowa plays close to the vest and with Michigan getting these type of points I am fully confident they will be in this game heading into the fourth quarter. Lastly, I like the situational spot of this being a nationally televised night game. Throw in some rain and some wind and the edge goes to the dog in what should be a classic Big Ten battle.

excellent. I got to see Iowa play. They've faced mediocre offenses all year. michigan is the play

**tbill11** · 10-09-09, 02:09 AM

Love the Wisconsin writeup Pags. There's some crazy RLM on that game though, as 66% of the public is on Wisconsin and the line is almost up to 17. What do you make of that?

**Crispybear** · 10-09-09, 02:18 AM

Hey Pags, thanks for the great write ups. I'm with you on Wisconsin and UConn. Here's to another winning week!

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 02:34 AM

tbill,

...my thoughts are that a bunch of sharp money brought the line down to 13.5 at the beginning of the week from the opening line of 15 and then a syndicate of some sort bet the line up to 16...the way I look at it the line has moved up a point from the opener, which happens in many games...because this was bet down and then up many are making a big deal of it...

crispy bear,

that's what I'm talking about!

**clowncar** · 10-09-09, 03:02 AM

enjoying my weekly thursday night reading.

best of luck , pags.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 03:24 AM

clowncar,

couldn't have done it without you...thanks for your help...

**looseonthelead** · 10-09-09, 07:28 AM

Nice job brother...beast of luck as always!

**racebannon** · 10-09-09, 07:32 AM

Nice writeups Pags, really like your plays this week. You sound more confident than the past weeks too, I like it! GL!

**taurus** · 10-09-09, 07:45 AM

I decided to do things a bit differntly and did some work myself this week, pags.
I started with the Big Eleven and them east to the BigEast, ACC , C-USA, and ready to hit the MAC.
My selections - Michigan, Wisconsin, UConn, Duke, and SMU. So it's very comforting to know that we are in same ballpark. And I have no trouble latching onto the others. CSU is much improved this year and Utah maybe down a hair.
I call the SEC game a coin flip and will go with however you say it comes out.

GL

**bypp** · 10-09-09, 10:46 AM

pags, great writeups as always. i love the wisconsin and kentucky picks!!! best of luck sir

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-09-09, 11:08 AM

BOL this week, Pags.

With you on all games in some fashion except Michigan.

**JimmyJet** · 10-09-09, 11:55 AM

Got 16 points with Wisconsin and as is my home state scholl and I attended classes there will ride with the Badgers plus 16. Good luck to us on Wisconsin and to you on all your other plays. For me just one play in college this weekend...Wisconsin +16

**icemantbi** · 10-09-09, 02:02 PM

Great write-ups as usual Pags.. Still loving Michigan the most, I'm getting 8 on them now which is even better. We both saw the game against Michigan St. exactly the same. This one is going to come down to the wire, I think it will be a 3 or 4 point win by either team.

Let's smoke the books tomorrow!

**demize21** · 10-09-09, 02:04 PM

Great write ups as usual Pags lets keep the paper rollin in

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 02:23 PM

looseonthelead,

racebannon,

I am man, I am for sure...

taurus,

that's good news for sure sir...appreciate you stopping by...

bypp,

msuspartan32,

appreciate your support bro...
jimmyjet,

icemantbi,

that's what I'm talking about!

demize21,

**MSUSpartan32** · 10-09-09, 02:48 PM

icemantbi,

Give me some more of your logic on the Michigan play. I am really trying to look at the game from all angles. I currently have Iowa -1 in a teaser and am trying to find a reason to not put that on my card.

What I saw vs. Michigan State was for 53 minutes, the total offense was 400 yards to 87 yards. For 53 minutes, that was one of the worst football performances I have seen in a long time. Granted, the last 7 minutes were very good, but it's hard to ignore that type of domination for 53 minutes by a 1-3 team.

Originally posted by icemantbi

Great write-ups as usual Pags.. Still loving Michigan the most, I'm getting 8 on them now which is even better. We both saw the game against Michigan St. exactly the same. This one is going to come down to the wire, I think it will be a 3 or 4 point win by either team.

Let's smoke the books tomorrow!

**Jimmydafreak** · 10-09-09, 03:18 PM

Pags, boy are we on the same page this week. I can't argue with a single play. I really like Kentucky. In fact if they were healthier, I would pick them to win this game straight up. In any event, this should be a FG type of a game.

I also like Michigan, UConn & Wisconsin, but I absolutely LOVE SMU!!! I believe they win this game straight up. It sounds like you picked my brain on your writeup!!!

BOL as always Pags!!!

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 03:22 PM

freak,

good to hear from you my friend! glad we are on the same page this week...you da freak!

**tombitler** · 10-09-09, 03:29 PM

been riding ur coat tails all year why stop now lets cash these out already started a small streak of my own hit on vikes,troy,nebraska,lets sweep it

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 03:32 PM

tombitler,

**Superman455** · 10-09-09, 03:35 PM

Thanks for the great reading Pags as usual. I am on all these, my only real concern on the card is the Colorado State game. Lovin the Wis, Kentucky and Michigan plays. Again thanks and wish you the best of luck.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 03:42 PM

superman,

nice avatar...

...GL

**NorthernLights** · 10-09-09, 04:14 PM

Pags, thanks for all your info. What's your take on the Georgia vs Tennessee? Also Prudue vs Minn?

I'm leaning Tenn @-1.5 and Minn @-3 right now.

**pags11** · 10-09-09, 04:22 PM

northern lights,

I'm concerned with how Georgia is going to react to their loss last week, and also the problems with Joe Cox continue and now they are going on the road in a tough environment against a good defensive team...I don't think that Tennessee is a great team and do respect Mark Richt's road record in the SEC but this just isn't the same Georgia team that I've seen in past years...

as far as Purdue vs. Minnesota I feel it is a no play...

**Cougar Bait** · 10-09-09, 04:46 PM

Can't beat that SMU write-up. Nicely done. The travel schedule stuck out like a sore thumb to me as well. On a bunch of these as you already know...is it Saturday yet?

**NorthernLights** · 10-09-09, 05:10 PM

Thanks Pags, I'm tailing you on the Michigan play....BOL to youfor Saturday and let's see you hit that over 70% mark this week like we've seen before.