Oregon -3.5 B1G Champion

[Eddy Munny]

First you called it a coin flip, now you're saying 60%. Which one is it, dumbass?

The game last night was more or less a coin flip you moron. A team with over 500 yards of offense was driving down the field for either a potential tie or a spread cover.

That is given a deficit in the turnover department, which, as I already stated, is largely random and without carryover.

If they hypothetically played the game 10 times, and you give PSU +3.5 I'm stating that they would cover that spread at least 60% of the time, and likely win the game outright around half the time.

Again, the fact that I have to explain everything to you three times spotlights your idiocy.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

After giving up a shit ton of yards (and, more importantly, points) themselves while being behind ATS virtually the entire game. The better team won and the better side covered; winners cover, losers cry if, but, maybe like little bitches.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I repeat myself because you can't get anything through your shit-filled head, no matter how logical.

Drunk, better question. *What staying power do you see for Oregon?
...How beatable do you see them? Or are they on track to win it all?

Oreg/OhioSt re-match looming. Talent tells me that OhioSt can win. Just hard to be confident in them.

I've been anti-Oregon for much of the season. But Gabriel is very precise, may be tough to beat.

[Spite]

Penn State was carving them up.

They never had a lead and were down 11 right away, were trailing by 18 in the first H. They moved the ball but they never threatened victory and were going to have to score a TD last to cover. When it mattered most they threw an INT first play of the drive.

[Eddy Munny]

They never had a lead and were down 11 right away, were trailing by 18 in the first H. They moved the ball but they never threatened victory and were going to have to score a TD last to cover. When it mattered most they threw an INT first play of the drive.

Yes but that doesn't refute the thrust of my statement. The game obviously unfolded in unfortuitous fashion for the underdog. But in a game where neither defense could string together stops, a lot of the early deficit had to do with the Ducks getting the ball first and also cashing in on a pick-6. The fact that PSU put themselves in such an early hole and still had a chance to tie the game at the end speaks to just how competitive a ball game it was.

I mean if they played the game next week would you be supremely confident laying points again? Is it automatic that the Ducks would score first? Is it a foregone conclusion that they get a pick-6 to stretch the lead? Are you taking for granted that another sack fumble by Gabriel would fall back into his lap and not into the arms of the opposing defense? That's my point. It was a tightly contested game where I'd make the same bet all over again if I had to.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Drunk, better question. *What staying power do you see for Oregon?
...How beatable do you see them? Or are they on track to win it all?

Oreg/OhioSt re-match looming. Talent tells me that OhioSt can win. Just hard to be confident in them.

I've been anti-Oregon for much of the season. But Gabriel is very precise, may be tough to beat.

Don't know nor care, I'll take a look at the line when their opponent is determined and go from there. I do think that OSU can beat them; the previous game was back and forth the whole way and I totally discount the Michigan game because it was so far out of the norm for OSU. If they play and Oregon is favored at all, especially by three or more, I'll most likely be on the Buckeyes.

[Eddy Munny]

I repeat myself because you can't get anything through your shit-filled head, no matter how logical.

No, you repeat yourself because you have no path by which to advance your argument.

All you've stated is that Oregon won and covered, which was established and acknowledged by all parties long ago.

You're just randomly slinging shit and hitting no one but yourself.

[Spite]

confident laying points again?

Absolutely. Until James Franklin proves he can compete against a top 10 team I will fade him blindly every single time.

[Eddy Munny]

Absolutely. Until James Franklin proves he can compete against a top 10 team I will fade him blindly every single time.

But he did compete. If you mean "win" then just say it. Because last night's game was definitely competitive.

And it's against top 5 teams that he has the miserable record against, not top 10. Top 5 teams are top 5 for a reason: they're really good. I don't overweight that statistic. I think it's more talk show fodder than anything. He's probably been an underdog in most if not all of those games.

But again, speaking to last nights result, it was very competitive. PSU matched or exceeded the Ducks in every meaningful metric except turnovers, which ultimately prove to be their undoing. That doesn't make it predictive going forward, though.

I would take +3.5 and live with the results 100% of the time. That doesn't mean it wins 100% of the time. It's still value.

[Spite]

But he did compete. If you mean "win" then just say it. Because last night's game was definitely competitive.

And it's against top 5 teams that he has the miserable record against, not top 10. Top 5 teams are top 5 for a reason: they're really good. I don't overweight that statistic. I think it's more talk show fodder than anything. He's probably been an underdog in most if not all of those games.

But again, speaking to last nights result, it was very competitive. PSU matched or exceeded the Ducks in every meaningful metric except turnovers, which ultimately prove to be their undoing. That doesn't make it predictive going forward, though.

I would take +3.5 and live with the results 100% of the time. That doesn't mean it wins 100% of the time. It's still value.

Compete doesn't mean cover. Especially 3.5 in a college game. Which if you call playing from behind basically every second of the game competing, then we have different definitions of competing. If a team never has a lead and is never tied other than 0-0 that's a college try at best in my book.

[Eddy Munny]

Compete doesn't mean cover. Especially 3.5 in a college game. Which if you call playing from behind basically every second of the game competing, then we have different definitions of competing. If a team never has a lead and is never tied other than 0-0 that's a college try at best in my book.

Yes but I've addressed last night's game ad nauseam... In a game where two defenses were overmatched, any sort of extra possession is going to quickly inflate the deficit. So the Ducks score early and get another early score from the defense and the Lions are playing catch up all night. PSU never rolled over and died though. The fact that it was still a game on the final possession, given the early events, speak to the evenness of the teams.

The sequence of events leading to Penn State's early hole would be unlikely to repeat in a larger sample size. That's literally all I'm saying. Give me a clean slate and I'll take the points. It's not rocket science and I'm not saying you were wrong for your bet. I'm saying Penn State had 500 yards of offense and it wasn't a fluke in the least. These teams play 10 games and I highly doubt taking PSU +3.5 in all of them would put me at a mathematical disadvantage.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't know nor care, I'll take a look at the line when their opponent is determined and go from there. I do think that OSU can beat them; the previous game was back and forth the whole way and I totally discount the Michigan game because it was so far out of the norm for OSU. If they play and Oregon is favored at all, especially by three or more, I'll most likely be on the Buckeyes.

Horse, just asking for bet purposes. If OhioSt beats TENN, we'll see where the line is.

Oregon is surely going to be Favored. But not by much.

I sometimes think in terms of how I see the season playing out:
*Oregon does appear to have some magic. Team speed, good QB, 13-0 record. Could do it.
*It takes a much bigger leap of faith on OhioSt. WTF was that performance vs Michigan? Day normally looks like more than 50/50 to be a Lame Duck HC.

[Spite]

Penn State is not that good of a team. I know they have that shiny # next to their name but they have beaten nobody. Franklin literally runs it up on bad teams and has no issues throwing the ball into the endzone at the end of a game up multiple scores just to cover. He has done it more than once. Lanning is easily one of the top 3 coaches in the sport.

[Eddy Munny]

Penn State is not that good of a team. I know they have that shiny # next to their name but they have beaten nobody. Franklin literally runs it up on bad teams and has no issues throwing the ball into the endzone at the end of a game up multiple scores just to cover. He has done it more than once. Lanning is easily one of the top 3 coaches in the sport.

At this point you're just parroting nonsense that keep the talking heads busy. If Penn State isn't that good then I guess Oregon might not be either. I mean parity is the new norm so if you think there's a team out there that's going to boat race everyone in front of them I don't know what sport you've been watching.

Furthermore you can only play the teams scheduled, you can't flex in "worthier" opponents as you go along. Not once this year has Penn State scored late to cover, and before you say "Maryland" just know that the Lions were already covering.

[darrell74]

Well, what do we think about Penn State-8.5 vs. SMU?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

No, you repeat yourself because you have no path by which to advance your argument.

All you've stated is that Oregon won and covered, which was established and acknowledged by all parties long ago.

You're just randomly slinging shit and hitting no one but yourself.

My argument is that Penn St. doesn't cover against the elite teams and that it's not just typical garbage spouted by jabbering jungle monkeys on talk shows; it's a very logical, proven trend and the kind of thing that gamblers dream about. Yes, this one play happened, that was a bad break, maybe that was a bad call, the game was close until the end, etc. but the fact is that Penn St. simply finds ways to fail to cover against the best of the best. It's a simple fact and you're foolish for ignoring it.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Well, what do we think about Penn State-8.5 vs. SMU?

I say Penn St. or nothing, still looking though.

[Spite]

Well, what do we think about Penn State-8.5 vs. SMU?

Franklin will run it up on SMU given the chance. If they are up 7 with the ball under 2 min other team no timeouts, he will kick a FG to cover as opposed to taking a knee and winning by 7. He's a piece of s*** like that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Caesars opened the line for the 12/25 Boxing match:

*Drunk -220
*Eddy +200

[darrell74]

[darrell74]

End of discussion

[BBLDrizzy]

Horse, just asking for bet purposes. If OhioSt beats TENN, we'll see where the line is.

Oregon is surely going to be Favored. But not by much.

I sometimes think in terms of how I see the season playing out:
*Oregon does appear to have some magic. Team speed, good QB, 13-0 record. Could do it.
*It takes a much bigger leap of faith on OhioSt. WTF was that performance vs Michigan? Day normally looks like more than 50/50 to be a Lame Duck HC.

m(__)m

[BBLDrizzy]

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