GL men. I've got Penix Over 309.5 in this one and need to Cowboys -9.5 to cash a diff ticket with a nice parlay. Dallas always plays to their opp level though.
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22/23 RECORD: 16-12 (57.1%)
+$1,300
Very disappointed with how yesterday went. 1-2 days are not going to work, and we will improve over these last few days to close this Bowl season out strong!Comment -
GAME #29
DUKE’S MAYO BOWL - Maryland vs NC State
Pick: NC STATE -1, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
I’ve actually flipped my play here after doing some dipping. This is mainly a play on the Wolfpack defense, which appears to be at full strength here. There top 10 tacklers and upfront guys all appear to be suiting up for a defense that got the quarterback all year and stuffed the run. There is no question the offense has regressed since Leary got hurt in the FSU game. Fortunately, theyve gotten to feature MJ Morris and Ben Finley now for several games each, and both improved game to game. If Morris still cant go, Finley went 27-40 for 271 and 2 TDs/0 INT’s in their last game, an OT win at rival UNC. The only key offensive player I see out is Devin Carter, their 4th leading receiver with 25 catches.
There isnt much to get excited about when looking at Marylands schedule. The only bowl eligible teams they beat all year were Buffalo and SMU in September. All they beat in the Big 10 were the bottom feeders. Im a big Tagovailoa fan, but hes going to be missing alot of his fire power here. Demus Jr, Jarrett and Copeland are all sitting as they are NFL hopefuls. Thats 88 catches and 1,080 yards to replace. They are also missing an honorable Big 10 mention Linebacker and Corner for this game. Maryland will be relying on Hemby’s 5.6 yards per carry, but NC State has a good shot of filling those lanes.Comment -
GAME #30
TONY THE TIGER BOWL - Pittsburgh vs UCLA
Pick: UCLA -8, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
This may very well not cover, but Im confident in this play. UCLA had a really nice year under Chip Kelly. After back to back wins vs Washington and Utah, they were poised for big things, but an inexplicable home loss to Arizona crushed any hopes of something bigger. They have been ranked top 20 since October, led by their explosive offense. Ive looked at multiple sources last few days, and I see zero key opt outs here. They play uptempo, and Thompson-Robinson has all the attributes throwing the ball and can pull it down and run, as he ran for 630 with 11 rushing TDs. Charbonnet had 1,359 on the ground, for 7 yards per carry and 14 TDs. Defensively, they only give up 3.7 per rush on the ground, but they did get torched through the air. Luckily, Pitt has a QB mess on their hands.
Kedon Slovis is transferring, leaving it up to Patti or Yarnell, who only combined for 32 pass attempts all year. To make matters worse, Abanikanda who rushed for 1,431 has opted out for the NFL. Also, their leading receiver Jared Wayne’s status is unknown, and they be missing 2 starting OT’s. Not to mention, theyll be short several defense starters, including 2nd leading tackler and Kancey, who was an All American last year. From a leadership standpoint, they will be without all 4 captains. If they are to cover, they’ll have to score a lot, as Chip Kelly isnt pumping the brakes for anyone, and is always looking to score, even with a big lead.Comment -
GAME #31
GATOR BOWL - Notre Dame vs South Carolina
Pick: SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
This was an incredibly difficult handicap for me, as both teams are missing so many keys pieces. I had ND as -2.5 favorites after I put everything together, so Ill happily hop on South Carolina with the hook. There is a lot of excitement in Columbia SC for the first time in a while, as Shane Beamer has injected some excitement into the program. They closed the year as winners of 7 of their final 9, including back to back wins to close against #5 Tennessee and at #7 Clemson. However, theyll be missing lots of pieces on both sides. There rushing attack was a problem this year, so missing Lloyd, Bell and Beal-Smith for this game might not be a huge problem. Theyll be missing their #2, #3 and #5 ball catchers for this one. Hopefully Spencer Rattler has been able to build a rapport with some role guys as a compliment to leading receiver Anywane Wells Jr who will be active. Defensively, they gave up alot of points and alot of chunk plays, but they did play alot of really good offensive teams this year, but doesnt ND have the weapons to expose them?
Drew Pyne left for Arizona St and Buchner got hurt early in the year with a shoulder injury…which was announced as season ending. If he cant go, Steve Angeli will get thrown in, who hasnt taken a snap all year. Michael Mayer, arguably the best TE in the country, with a ridiculous blocking game and 67 catches, for 809 yards and 9 TDs has opted out. Outside of Mayer, ND only has one guy who caught more then 20 balls this year. Also, Isaiah Foskey, by far ND’s best pass rusher and disturber with 13.5 sacks, has opted out. Notre Dame will however have their full compliment available in the backfield, with Diggs, Estime and Tyree. With the Irish clearly in trouble at QB, South Carolina should be able to get extra bodies in the box and focus early on slowing down the run game.Comment -
GAME #32
ARIZONA BOWL - Ohio vs Wyoming
Pick: OHIO -2.5, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Kind of an odd game in the midst of a Power 5 day, but a game nonetheless.
Yes, I know Kurtis Rourke is out with a torn ACL, and yes I know they struggled moving the ball in the MAC Championship with CJ Harris. With that said, they ripped off 8 of 9 before that game. They have a solid enough ground game with Bangura, who went for 940 with 12 TDs this year. They do have 4 WRs available who all went for over 500 yards, so Harris will have some playmakers, hopefully he’s gotten some familiarity with them the last month in practice. Defensively, Ohio has been deceiving, due to what happened the first 6 games. They gave up 41 ppg those games, and only 17.8 ppg their last 7 games, so theyve improved dramatically. Good news, Wyoming is ranked near the bottom in college football in several offensive metrics.
Whats worse for Wyoming, is they heavily rely on the ground game and Swen (1,039, 5.0ypg), McNeely (356, 5.7ypg) and James (346, 8.7ypg) are all unavailable, leaving them with very little. And they dont throw much, Peasley only threw for barely over 100 yards per game this year, with a 51.4% rate, and 9 TD’s to 8 INT’s. Wyoming should have trouble generating offense against this much improved Ohio defense. Wyoming does possess a solid defense, but they did give up yardage and points to the likes of Fresno, SJSU, BYU, Tulsa and Illinois. This should be a low scoring game, and I can see a few mistakes by Peasley in 3rd and long situations.Comment -
Nc state D is going to get worn out. They’re on the field too much already.Comment -
It's early but yes so far Maryland looking much better. Can NC State adjust?Comment -
Honestly, if Finley hasnt missed about 5 throws, this is a totally different game. They praise his accuracy and he’s had all day in the pocket, hes just been incredibly erratic. I hope he can dial in it second half.Comment -
My biggest concern is the fact that Nc State cant move the ball on the ground. Before this is all said and done, Finley could have 50 pass attempts, which is scary.Comment -
Finelys receivers suck today huge.Comment -
Finley is hands down the worst QB I’ve watched the entire bowl season. Dude can’t even complete a screen. Guys wide open all day and can’t get close to themComment -
GAME #33
ORANGE BOWL - Tennessee vs Clemson
Pick: TENNESSEE +4, -110
Risk $550 to Win $500
Interesting game here…..both have to be disappointed in where they ended up, as both had real dreams of a National Championship. I guess the Orange Bowl isnt a bad consolation prize. Yes, Hooker is out, yes Hyatt and Tillman have opted out at WR, but the Vols have their full complement of O-Line and RB’s. Yes, Milton looked good against Vandy, and Clemson line is obviously a different beast, but he feels like the right guy to replace Hooker. He started his career at Michigan, and get snaps there. Tennessee featured a good defense considering the kind of tempo they play with, and it looks like no one has opted out.
Clemson forced to play at Klubnik is a little scary. They arent missing a ton on the offense side of the ball, but missing some LBs and Corners who played significant snaps. This might be more of a feel play for me, but I dont think Clemson wants to be here and Ill take the points. I think Milton might surprise us.Comment -
Why has SC/ND moved from 3.5 to 5 in the past hour-ish?
Someone get ruled out for the Roosters?Comment -
NC State head coach has zero confidence in Finely, and Finely looks scared to death every time he has to take a snap. He cannot handle the moment. He should ask to come out of the game to give his team a chance.Comment -
Boom! There’s Talia’s big mistake we neededComment -
Wow…first time they have been anywhere close to the end zone this half and they go for field goal on 4th and short?Comment -
Gotta give MD defense credit though…NC st just couldn’t handle the pressureComment -
Its just hard in these bowl games when you side with the team that has the worst QB. NC State had no chance in this game with the awful QB play.Comment -
Lol. You throw at the best CB at defending passes in the country. Real smart.Comment -
This game made me absolutely sick to my stomach. The missed throws by NC State were sick.Comment -
Two redzone picks by UCLA. Fack meComment
