Thanks for sharing soonerbs....will be following you and pags11 this season so best of luck and lets make some money
-
Comment -
Georgia +6 for 1 UNIT -- Oklahoma State has been catching a lot of preseason hype this offseason for their awesome offensive play. The hype peaked whenever for the first time in Oklahoma State history, the team was mentioned in the Top 10 Preseason poll by the AP. Oklahoma State has been hearing how great their defense is and how great they are going to be this year since their last season ended in literal ass-kicking by Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. It was in that game that Oklahoma State found out that they are a true "finesse" team and are not very tough. The coaches have said in the offseason that they have been working with the players to increase their toughness -- maybe they have, maybe they haven't.
Tough or not, this Oklahoma State team is loaded offensively and we all acknowledge that. However, one thing that has been missing in all the preseason hype is what is going on with the Oklahoma State defense? This defense allowed over 28 ppg last season and 406 ypg of total offense. They had to replace 5 starters -- 2 on the defensive front and 3 in the defensive backfield -- from last season. Guys, this is not Texas, Oklahoma, USC or Florida, OSU cannot reload with quality talent every year, they have to build it. So I ask again, what is the defense going to do to get Championship quality better? Oklahoma State's answer? Hire a new DC after their DC from last season went to Toledo to become the head coach. Guys, coaches to play the game, and they can't make major improvements in units if they do not have the talent to work with. This defense is soft and Georgia will exploit it.
The other team, Georgia, has not heard the trumpets and seen the banners flying all offseason about how they are going to win championships and be great this season, like they did last season. Gone are the three studded amigos: Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi. In comes some barely known skill players to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Joe Cox, a 5 year senior QB, will lead the team this season. He is described as a QB that is very capable, will not turn the ball over, but will not be drafted by the NFL. We don't know much about the RB/RBs except to say that Georgia is almost always loaded and puts out "no name" RBs regularly who become stars. The big "?" mark will be the receivers, but I think they will have some who can catch passes. The defense brings back 8 starters and even more experienced players and should better their mediocre stats from last season.
What is going to be the key to this cover? Mark Richt is 30-4 at opponents home stadiums. Mark Richt is 36-4 in non SEC games. Mark Richt and his team has been disrespected in this match-up as many analysts are picking Oklahoma State to win this game SU. Mark Richt may have his most solid and unified "team" in some time -- not all stars, no NFL draft picks, just a solid team. I think Georgia is going to control the line of scrimmage offensively and control the tempo of the ball game with their running game. This will keep OSU's offense off the field as much as possible. +6 points is a lot of points for a top quality football team from the SEC with their proven track record on the road in non-conference games. I'll take the points for a small play.
Idaho +3.5 for 1 UNIT -- This is a game between the two WAC bottom dwellers. Neither Idaho or New Mexico St either one is very good and will not be very good this season . . . . at least SU. Idaho leads this series though between these two teams winning 4 of the last 5 games and 11 of the last 15. It hasn't seemed to matter where the game was being played. Last season, Idaho beat what could have been a better New Mexico St team (at least they still had their QB, Chase Holbrook) 20-14. Idaho goes on the road in this game but they return almost all their skill position players and 6 starters on defense. New Mexico State returns only 10 starters on both sides of the ball. The Idaho coach feels that their camp has gone well and he sees improvement in their team. NMSU has been learning new schemes on both sides of the ball with the advent of their new Head Coach. Both sides suck, but we'll take the points for a small play.Comment -
Nice write-up Sooner.Comment -
Sooner, I'm really liking all your picks so far. Any opinion on Akron @ Penn State (-27)? Best of luck to you.Comment -
Arizona/Central Michigan UNDER 54 for 2 UNITS -- I wanted to take Arizona in this matchup before Fall camp started, but I have been glad I did not take them early after seeing the results of their Fall Camp. It looked like Matt Scott was definitely going to be the QB after Spring practices, but through the Fall camp, none of the QBs have looked good and Nick Foles is even with Matt Scott currently (9-1-09) going into game one where a clear starter has not been named at this position. Also, it was announced today that Arizona's stud Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, will likely miss this game. Even if he does play, he has had back problems for the last three weeks and has sat out of practice. He's not ready to play.
Another reason why the offense has not looked good in Fall practice, and it definitely has not according to OC, Sonny Dykes, is because of the stout Arizona defense they have had to run against in practices. Stoops has called this defense the best one he has had since he began coaching at Arizona. That plays mightily into an UNDER play alone without the offensive problems.
Central Michigan is a MAC team with an outstanding QB. Unfortunately, while CMU brings back 10 starters off their defense of last season, they bring back only 5 starters on offense. Three of the vacancies they will be filling offensively is on the offensive line and that is always a question mark coming into the start of a season with a team. Still, this aside, CMU is a good ball team whenever they play teams of same talent or lesser talent like they do in the MAC. But, Arizona will outclass CMU and shut down their offense like BCS teams in the past have done.
Oklahoma -20.5 (-130) for 1 UNIT -- I have seen a lot of posts by cappers -- some I highly respect -- that is actually giving BYU a chance to hang in this game. Hell, Andre Ware, ESPN analyst has even gone on record saying BYU will upset Oklahoma in this spot! I don't see it, guys, and I think Oklahoma blows them out of this game. I looked for every way to take BYU, especially whenever Oklahoma's offensive line was still in doubt before Fall camp, but the way everything is playing out, it has to be an Oklahoma bet or none. I'm laying small on Oklahoma and here are the reasons why:
-- The offensive line has responded to the challenges and harsh criticism that Stoops gave them back in the early Spring. The only position that has had some concern through Fall camp has been at center where there has been a couple of injuries. But, Oklahoma has been working a TE, Brody Eldridge, at the position for the last 3 weeks and will go with him to start. They love how he has responded to the new assignment and he has loved the opportunity to play. Guys, Trent Williams, the Sr. left tackle, will go in the top 10 of the NFL draft next year . . . . mark my words! No, this unit is not as strong as last year's unit, but all these guys played in games the last couple of years and have experience, AND they have worked their butts off in the offseason. They will be fine.
-- BYU brings back their QB, Max Hall, and he is a good QB. They also get back Unga and Tonga from injury list and these guys are a couple of bruisers for sure. But, they bring back only 4 starters off last year's team and most of their holes were on the offensive line. Now, injuries has depleted the line and made it very shallow in depth. They will be going against the best defensive line in the nation in this matchup! Word is already out -- pressure Hall, and he will fold like a wet napkin. I can promise you there will be plenty of pressure on Hall the entire game as Oklahoma is deep enough to send fresh troops after him on every down!
-- Defensively, BYU is bruised, injured and shallow in depth. This is a weak secondary, especially at corner back, and they are facing a team that averaged 51 ppg last year led by the Heisman QB, Sam Bradford! The only weakness Oklahoma may have that was not there last season is at WR. BUT, word has leaked that DeMarco Murray and Mossis Madu will run some WR routes and slotback style pass plays coming out of the backfield. Damn, Oklahoma has way too many weapons for BYU to keep up with and Wilson is going to be revealing more! ALSO, and this is important: if you are a banged up, shallow depthed defense, the last thing you want to see and play against in the opening game of the season is a "no huddle" style offense. Look for Oklahoma to break this game wide open in the second half if they have not already done so by halftime. In fact, if by some chance this game is within two TDs by halftime, bet Oklahoma for the 2nd half.
Don't get caught up in the "BYU ALWAYS gets up for these kind of games" fodder that is going on around the internet, guys. BYU has never had a game of this magnitude to open the season. Also, it is being played in the Sooners' second home -- the Dallas area. It is NOT a true neutral site.
Army +5 for 1 UNIT -- I think it's safe to say that Army has been the red-headed step child of the FBS for many years now. They have not had a winning season since 1996 and are 30-108 SU since that season. They have not been any better ATS. They have not beaten a top 20 team since 1972. This team has been bad. I blame most of their poor success on bad systems that just have not fit a military type school playing in the FBS. Both Navy and Air Force have been successful by running option style offenses year after year. Army has switched from option, to pro-style, to back to option last season. Last year, after another dismal 3-9 season, Army decided another coaching change was needed. Out went 2 year head coach, Stan Brock, in comes former Cal-Poly head coach, Rich Ellerson. Ellerson brings with him the offensive scheme Army needs to stay with -- the triple option. This will be a triple option style closer to Air Force's though as Ellerson likes to throw the ball a bit more in his schemes. Bowden took over the QB role last season after 3 games into the season and rushed for 572 yards last season in the option game. I look for him to improve on those numbers this year if he remains healthy. I look for this team to be better this season for these reasons: a much softer schedule than they have had in the past, 2nd year of running an option style offense, experience coming back on defense where they made a lot of improvement last year.
Guys, I actually think that with their softer schedule and the tendency for them to get good dog lines, Army could be a good team to play-on this season for a change. Most every bettor has had a tendency to fade Army in the past, and rightfully so, because of their poor performances. I think the mind set will likely be the same this season, especially earlier on in the season. Teams are not going to be ready for Army to run the triple option and I think they can catch some teams by surprise. Last season they even went 2-0 in the home favorite role, so I wouldn't even fade them as favorites. They haven't got to play this easy of a schedule in a long time.
Eastern Michigan may be bringing back 17 starters off last year's team, but that was a team that lost to the Knights by 4 points, too. I actually think Army is going to be the better team in this match-up and with them catching +5 points, I'm on them small here.
Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 64.5 for 2 UNITS -- It's usually hazardous to your pocketbook to play the UNDER on a CUSA game where defense is usually something that runs around your back yard. But I think it's warranted here for these reasons:
-- Tulsa only brings back 5 starters on offense from a team that averaged over 47 ppg last year. One of those starters needing replaced is the QB . . . who has yet to be named. Tulsa says they know who the QB will be, but their not telling until game time. That's fine, whoever it is it will be his first collegiate start and he will do it on the road. Tulsa will find a way to be offensively proficient this season, but it may not necessarily start this game.
-- IF Tulsa does happen to get their offense rolling this game, that doesn't mean Tulane will as well. Last year, Tulsa won this game 56-7 where Tulane only scored 1 TD. Tulane is not impressive offensively and will likely be the same this season with little improvement. Their main focus this offseason has been on improving their defense, and the latest practices have looked promising along that order. Their new defensive coordinator believes in a more aggressive defensive package, and if they can implement it against Tulsa, it could give the new Tulsa QB some fits. Tulsa's defense showed some improvement last year and Graham thinks he has his best defense to date.
Everything here leans towards the UNDER, guys.Comment -
Interesting view on Army, I'm thinkin you might be onto something. Nicely done
Comment -
Sooner, I like your Under pick in the Tulane game. Not sure if you know this, but just over a week ago Tulane had their intrascrimmage game and 27 players were out sick with the flu. Many of them were starters and missed several days of practice. That cannot bode well for the team.Comment -
Thanks for your insight and informative wright ups and good luck to you sir, looking forward to reading your wright ups the rest of the way!! Again GL sirComment -
I'm on the Minney, CU and Georgia bus. Also have the Georgia moneyline. I like your OU -20.5, can't remember if you bought points or not. I show 22.5, a point and half high for me. Best of luck and thanks for the write ups.Comment -
As a Buckeye fan/apologist, i have to say that you're spot-on in your analysis of how Tressel is approaching Navy. If OSU wins by 35, i think Tressel may even be disappointed b/c he'll feel as if he demoralized the armed forces. Play-calling will be very basic and lots of time for the subs so as not to show USC anything and enter that game healthy. Doesn't matter how much more talent you have than the opposition if you're not looking to use it fully....I'm considering a play on Navy. Navy has done really well in the dog roll, they love playing on the road and play some of their best games on the road (they get to sleep in on game day, I've read players' interviews) and Tressel will not likely run the score up on Navy too high before he puts in the subs for two reasons:
1.) This is a military school and the PR office for Ohio State has already put out a video plea for the fans to "cheer" Navy whenever they come into the stadium out of respect for our military men. It will be vary unlikely for Tressel to run Navy into the ground and Tressel is not really good to bet on to cover big spreads anyway as he does not do this often.
2.) Ohio State will have USC on deck . . . .
By the way: Long write-ups don't make the play any better. I simply like to write down my explanations for making a certain play and nothing more. I've seen too many posters write a write-up for the sole purpose of trying to impress people. Don't get too enamored with write-ups excpt to see if the reasoning is sound.
Comment -
guys, Ohio State will put up a max of 35 points. I just dont see them scoring 40+. Navy will luck into a touchdown or 2 at least. The triple oftion offense is very unpredictable and Ohio State will probably not be ready for it. Tackling is always tougher at the start of the year (not as much practice) and you HAVE to tackle somebody in the triple option. I'm loving Navy +21.5Comment -
irishstuey, 5DIMES still had Oklahoma at -21.5 this morning where some of the others had gone to -22. I bought one whole point to get it under the key number of -21. I don't think I'll need it, but I like to make sure.
Biff, I'm glad to know that as a Hawkeye fan that you have the same perspective on this game. I have been waiting because I think it still may go up some before Saturday. But, I will be on it. The Navy play and one more UNDER play will be my final two plays for the week.
TPowell, you are correct, the Triple Option is tough to prepare for even whenever you have the time to prepare for it. Navy's players play hard and tough whoever they are playing and they are a very disciplined team. They do not have the talent to beat Ohio State, but they can hang within the point range even without the other added factors IMO.
Guys, thanks for all your good words and thoughts in my thread . . . .
Comment -
Thanks for the plays and all the hard work, I'm locked and loaded.
Comment -
Sooner, ever since I started reading your posts and write-ups I've been really impressed. Also glad to see we are on some games together...couldn't pull the trigger on your Sooners or on Georgia...but I can see the reasoning. Here's to a great first week in the win column
hombre
Comment -
Sooner, way to raise the bar on the writeups. Nicely done. I've already indicated I'm on the GA side, but with OK St.'s loss of their starting TE and MLB in the last couple of days I'm leaning towards a ML play as well.Comment -
I actually have a write up on my blog about the UTEP game.. I think that is the easiest game of the week.המוסד
המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים
Comment -
sarms, thanks, and good luck to you this week!
CB, thanks, and good luck to you and your plays, it's great to be talking and betting college football again.
Kim, thanks for the good words, I just hope the write-ups will be backed by wins, lol . . . . .
FG, I just don't see how Buffalo can pull it off losing nearly 80% of their offensive production from last season . . . good luck to us.Comment -
GL, just over 24 hours!Comment -
Guys, I added 2 UNITS to my Colorado play making it a 5 UNIT play because I really like what I have been reading and hearing about this matchup. I think Colorado will be in control the entire game here. Also, being that Monday was their final day in full pads for this week, I don't expect anymore injury surprises. I do know that back-up offensive lineman, Tua, has been expelled from school, but it doesn't concern me in this game. He didn't play at all last season and wasn't expected to start this season.Comment -
Great write up sooners. Will be checking back.Comment -
Here Are All the Plays To Date . . . .
Minnesota -6.5 for 5 UNITS -- I had to bet this now as it keeps getting worse and worse for Syracuse. I will write more on this play later, but the bottomline is that we know how bad they were last season and they have had 23 players, some of them starters, leave the program since the hiring of the new coach. Add another starter to the list today as their starting linebacker, Derek Hines, left the team. There is very little talent on this team and now there is very little depth. Minnesota may be a fade later, but they are bringing back 17 starters off a 7-6 team from last year and this should be an easy cover even if it is on the road.
Oregon +5.5 for 3 UNITS -- I'll get into some more specifics on this game later. I considered and already listed this game as good value bet on the ML, but I decided to play the points because 4 other handicappers I respect highly are all on Oregon in this spot -- GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and pags11. I see their reasoning and agree. You need to get on it, too. I'm sure GoSooners will be posting his reasons on this game soon, so check out his thread.
Colorado -9.5 (-130) FOR 5 UNITS -- Guys, I have been watching this game for about a month as I think Colorado will be improved this year and they finally have their linemen healthy. They still have not decided on a starting QB between Hawkins and Hansen, but whoever they go with will be experienced and decent. Both QBs have been taking equal snaps in practice. Coach Hawkins latest report was that he was pleased with the progress of the offense and defense and the coaching staff had decided on who the playmakers were going to be for their team, so they could start deciding on what schemes were going to work best.
There are three factors though that have me taking this play:
1.) Last year this game was played on a neutral field and Colorado was favored by -11. They ended up winning the game by 21 points and covering the line. This year, the game is being played at Boulder and Colorado is a better team while CSU is not quite as good as they were last season.
2.) Colorado will be a much improved running team this year with their stud RBs having a year's experience and the offensive line finally being healthy. That is bad for a CSU defense who allowed their opponents 5.3 ypc last season. With 3 new defensive linemen in the starting rotation for CSU and 2 new LBs, improvement does not look promising.
3.) An article today mentioned that CSU has not only NOT decided on a starting QB yet, but they actually called up one of their former QBs who had been playing WR to start working with the 1st and 2nd team offenses (See article posted in this thread on pg. 2, post #48). With less than two weeks left before their opening game, this looks like a desperate move on CSU's coaching staff.
This is shaping up to be a very good bet, guys, get on it!
UTEP -6.5 (-130) for 3 UNITS -- It was going to be a tough season for Buffalo anyway after losing their great QB from last year, Drew Willy. Their only other hope for offense was heavily placed on their RB, James Stark, who averaged close to 5 ypc last year and racked up 1,333 yards on the season. Today, it was reported that Starks is injured and will not be able to play this season. His college career is done. So is Buffalo's season pretty much having to break in a new QB, new RB and new offensive line all in the same season.
UTEP's offense is ahead of schedule according to latest reports and they are expected to be very good. The line jumped a whole point today on news of Stark's injury so I had to buy a point to keep this under a TD. UTEP's defense is a typical CUSA conference defense -- which means it is not special -- but I don't think Buffalo will be able to exploit it at all. This should cover easily!
I might add some money to this next week.
Notre Dame -13.5 (-120) for 1 UNIT -- Notre Dame has always had talented recruits coming into the program and nothing has changed from there. This program has always been loaded with talent. The problem with Notre Dame is that the program has been wallowing in mediocrity for the past 9 seasons under 3 different coaches. This is a team that ought to be putting up double digit wins every season with the talent they have coming in, but for some reason they have done nothing but ride a roller coaster ride of up and down seasons. Weiss will be in his 5th season with the team and is only an average 29-21 as their head coach. I personally don't think Weiss is a bad coach, but I think the pressures of being the head coach of a program as huge as Notre Dame tends to get to these guys. Weiss came into the head coaching job in 2005 and took a team that was very mediocre the two years previous to this and went 9-3 and 10-3 in 2006. So, anyone that tells me the guy is not capable as a head coach is just not seeing the big picture with him in my opinion. Notre Dame graduated some major talent in 2006 and haven't recovered since then. However, there was improvement last season over the disastrous year in 2007, especially defensively. I know that Jon Tenuta was only hired last season to be a "co-defensive coordinator," but let's face it, he's the real brains of the defensive coaching staff and probably the reason the defense showed improvement last season. This season, Weiss has given Tenuta the sole responsibility of calling the plays defensively. The talent is set in all areas of the defense and I expect Notre Dame to have their best defensive season since 2002.
Offensively, Notre Dame brings back 9 starters off an offense that also improved last season over 2007. Still, as great as that sounds, Notre Dame's main weaknesses last year was their run game. This was largely due to the running backs not being very tough and the offensive line was weak in their run blocking. The RB coach and the OL coach were both given tasks of making these guys tougher. A lot of it was started by conditioning routines in the offseason and I look for them to really step up the toughness drills with these guys in August. IF the offensive line improves to their potential this season, there may be no limit as to how far the Fighting Irish will go this season.
Nevada will be a force on offense this season, but mainly at home or in the WAC. Their defense though is atrocious. This is a tale of two levels -- Notre Dame at a true BCS level and Nevada at a true non-BCS level. Many will bet on Nevada because they have received a lot of hype in the preseason as a possible "BCS Buster" team. The truth will be found out here in this game as it is a mismatch in talent.
Stanford -16.5 for 1 UNIT -- I would have liked to have meade this for more UNITS, but it is hard for me to do so with a team like Stanford laying DDs on the road. Look, guys, this comes down to the fact that I do not see WSU being any better than they were last season. They have had some defections over the offseason and there is nothing that has been done that would convince me that they have made some major changes.
Stanford, however, has been making changes to try and be better. They bring back 17 starters off last season's 5-7 team, and they have replaced their very mediocre QB, Pritchard, with a talented redshirt Freshman QB, Andrew Luck. Luck is a Jim Harbaugh recruit and he is the future of this program. Having an upgrade in QB is worth a TD for this match-up in itself. Last year, Stanford beat WSU at home 58-0. I don't see that kind of outing on the road, but we only have to cover -17.
Georgia +6 for 1 UNIT -- Oklahoma State has been catching a lot of preseason hype this offseason for their awesome offensive play. The hype peaked whenever for the first time in Oklahoma State history, the team was mentioned in the Top 10 Preseason poll by the AP. Oklahoma State has been hearing how great their defense is and how great they are going to be this year since their last season ended in literal ass-kicking by Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. It was in that game that Oklahoma State found out that they are a true "finesse" team and are not very tough. The coaches have said in the offseason that they have been working with the players to increase their toughness -- maybe they have, maybe they haven't.
Tough or not, this Oklahoma State team is loaded offensively and we all acknowledge that. However, one thing that has been missing in all the preseason hype is what is going on with the Oklahoma State defense? This defense allowed over 28 ppg last season and 406 ypg of total offense. They had to replace 5 starters -- 2 on the defensive front and 3 in the defensive backfield -- from last season. Guys, this is not Texas, Oklahoma, USC or Florida, OSU cannot reload with quality talent every year, they have to build it. So I ask again, what is the defense going to do to get Championship quality better? Oklahoma State's answer? Hire a new DC after their DC from last season went to Toledo to become the head coach. Guys, coaches to play the game, and they can't make major improvements in units if they do not have the talent to work with. This defense is soft and Georgia will exploit it.
The other team, Georgia, has not heard the trumpets and seen the banners flying all offseason about how they are going to win championships and be great this season, like they did last season. Gone are the three studded amigos: Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi. In comes some barely known skill players to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Joe Cox, a 5 year senior QB, will lead the team this season. He is described as a QB that is very capable, will not turn the ball over, but will not be drafted by the NFL. We don't know much about the RB/RBs except to say that Georgia is almost always loaded and puts out "no name" RBs regularly who become stars. The big "?" mark will be the receivers, but I think they will have some who can catch passes. The defense brings back 8 starters and even more experienced players and should better their mediocre stats from last season.
What is going to be the key to this cover? Mark Richt is 30-4 at opponents home stadiums. Mark Richt is 36-4 in non SEC games. Mark Richt and his team has been disrespected in this match-up as many analysts are picking Oklahoma State to win this game SU. Mark Richt may have his most solid and unified "team" in some time -- not all stars, no NFL draft picks, just a solid team. I think Georgia is going to control the line of scrimmage offensively and control the tempo of the ball game with their running game. This will keep OSU's offense off the field as much as possible. +6 points is a lot of points for a top quality football team from the SEC with their proven track record on the road in non-conference games. I'll take the points for a small play.
Idaho +3.5 for 1 UNIT -- This is a game between the two WAC bottom dwellers. Neither Idaho or New Mexico St either one is very good and will not be very good this season . . . . at least SU. Idaho leads this series though between these two teams winning 4 of the last 5 games and 11 of the last 15. It hasn't seemed to matter where the game was being played. Last season, Idaho beat what could have been a better New Mexico St team (at least they still had their QB, Chase Holbrook) 20-14. Idaho goes on the road in this game but they return almost all their skill position players and 6 starters on defense. New Mexico State returns only 10 starters on both sides of the ball. The Idaho coach feels that their camp has gone well and he sees improvement in their team. NMSU has been learning new schemes on both sides of the ball with the advent of their new Head Coach. Both sides suck, but we'll take the points for a small play.
Arizona/Central Michigan UNDER 54 for 2 UNITS -- I wanted to take Arizona in this matchup before Fall camp started, but I have been glad I did not take them early after seeing the results of their Fall Camp. It looked like Matt Scott was definitely going to be the QB after Spring practices, but through the Fall camp, none of the QBs have looked good and Nick Foles is even with Matt Scott currently (9-1-09) going into game one where a clear starter has not been named at this position. Also, it was announced today that Arizona's stud Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, will likely miss this game. Even if he does play, he has had back problems for the last three weeks and has sat out of practice. He's not ready to play.
Another reason why the offense has not looked good in Fall practice, and it definitely has not according to OC, Sonny Dykes, is because of the stout Arizona defense they have had to run against in practices. Stoops has called this defense the best one he has had since he began coaching at Arizona. That plays mightily into an UNDER play alone without the offensive problems.
Central Michigan is a MAC team with an outstanding QB. Unfortunately, while CMU brings back 10 starters off their defense of last season, they bring back only 5 starters on offense. Three of the vacancies they will be filling offensively is on the offensive line and that is always a question mark coming into the start of a season with a team. Still, this aside, CMU is a good ball team whenever they play teams of same talent or lesser talent like they do in the MAC. But, Arizona will outclass CMU and shut down their offense like BCS teams in the past have done.
Oklahoma -20.5 (-130) for 1 UNIT -- I have seen a lot of posts by cappers -- some I highly respect -- that is actually giving BYU a chance to hang in this game. Hell, Andre Ware, ESPN analyst has even gone on record saying BYU will upset Oklahoma in this spot! I don't see it, guys, and I think Oklahoma blows them out of this game. I looked for every way to take BYU, especially whenever Oklahoma's offensive line was still in doubt before Fall camp, but the way everything is playing out, it has to be an Oklahoma bet or none. I'm laying small on Oklahoma and here are the reasons why:
-- The offensive line has responded to the challenges and harsh criticism that Stoops gave them back in the early Spring. The only position that has had some concern through Fall camp has been at center where there has been a couple of injuries. But, Oklahoma has been working a TE, Brody Eldridge, at the position for the last 3 weeks and will go with him to start. They love how he has responded to the new assignment and he has loved the opportunity to play. Guys, Trent Williams, the Sr. left tackle, will go in the top 10 of the NFL draft next year . . . . mark my words! No, this unit is not as strong as last year's unit, but all these guys played in games the last couple of years and have experience, AND they have worked their butts off in the offseason. They will be fine.
-- BYU brings back their QB, Max Hall, and he is a good QB. They also get back Unga and Tonga from injury list and these guys are a couple of bruisers for sure. But, they bring back only 4 starters off last year's team and most of their holes were on the offensive line. Now, injuries has depleted the line and made it very shallow in depth. They will be going against the best defensive line in the nation in this matchup! Word is already out -- pressure Hall, and he will fold like a wet napkin. I can promise you there will be plenty of pressure on Hall the entire game as Oklahoma is deep enough to send fresh troops after him on every down!
-- Defensively, BYU is bruised, injured and shallow in depth. This is a weak secondary, especially at corner back, and they are facing a team that averaged 51 ppg last year led by the Heisman QB, Sam Bradford! The only weakness Oklahoma may have that was not there last season is at WR. BUT, word has leaked that DeMarco Murray and Mossis Madu will run some WR routes and slotback style pass plays coming out of the backfield. Damn, Oklahoma has way too many weapons for BYU to keep up with and Wilson is going to be revealing more! ALSO, and this is important: if you are a banged up, shallow depthed defense, the last thing you want to see and play against in the opening game of the season is a "no huddle" style offense. Look for Oklahoma to break this game wide open in the second half if they have not already done so by halftime. In fact, if by some chance this game is within two TDs by halftime, bet Oklahoma for the 2nd half.
Don't get caught up in the "BYU ALWAYS gets up for these kind of games" fodder that is going on around the internet, guys. BYU has never had a game of this magnitude to open the season. Also, it is being played in the Sooners' second home -- the Dallas area. It is NOT a true neutral site.
Army +5 for 1 UNIT -- I think it's safe to say that Army has been the red-headed step child of the FBS for many years now. They have not had a winning season since 1996 and are 30-108 SU since that season. They have not been any better ATS. They have not beaten a top 20 team since 1972. This team has been bad. I blame most of their poor success on bad systems that just have not fit a military type school playing in the FBS. Both Navy and Air Force have been successful by running option style offenses year after year. Army has switched from option, to pro-style, to back to option last season. Last year, after another dismal 3-9 season, Army decided another coaching change was needed. Out went 2 year head coach, Stan Brock, in comes former Cal-Poly head coach, Rich Ellerson. Ellerson brings with him the offensive scheme Army needs to stay with -- the triple option. This will be a triple option style closer to Air Force's though as Ellerson likes to throw the ball a bit more in his schemes. Bowden took over the QB role last season after 3 games into the season and rushed for 572 yards last season in the option game. I look for him to improve on those numbers this year if he remains healthy. I look for this team to be better this season for these reasons: a much softer schedule than they have had in the past, 2nd year of running an option style offense, experience coming back on defense where they made a lot of improvement last year.
Guys, I actually think that with their softer schedule and the tendency for them to get good dog lines, Army could be a good team to play-on this season for a change. Most every bettor has had a tendency to fade Army in the past, and rightfully so, because of their poor performances. I think the mind set will likely be the same this season, especially earlier on in the season. Teams are not going to be ready for Army to run the triple option and I think they can catch some teams by surprise. Last season they even went 2-0 in the home favorite role, so I wouldn't even fade them as favorites. They haven't got to play this easy of a schedule in a long time.
Eastern Michigan may be bringing back 17 starters off last year's team, but that was a team that lost to the Knights by 4 points, too. I actually think Army is going to be the better team in this match-up and with them catching +5 points, I'm on them small here.
Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 64.5 for 2 UNITS -- It's usually hazardous to your pocketbook to play the UNDER on a CUSA game where defense is usually something that runs around your back yard. But I think it's warranted here for these reasons:
-- Tulsa only brings back 5 starters on offense from a team that averaged over 47 ppg last year. One of those starters needing replaced is the QB . . . who has yet to be named. Tulsa says they know who the QB will be, but their not telling until game time. That's fine, whoever it is it will be his first collegiate start and he will do it on the road. Tulsa will find a way to be offensively proficient this season, but it may not necessarily start this game.
-- IF Tulsa does happen to get their offense rolling this game, that doesn't mean Tulane will as well. Last year, Tulsa won this game 56-7 where Tulane only scored 1 TD. Tulane is not impressive offensively and will likely be the same this season with little improvement. Their main focus this offseason has been on improving their defense, and the latest practices have looked promising along that order. Their new defensive coordinator believes in a more aggressive defensive package, and if they can implement it against Tulsa, it could give the new Tulsa QB some fits. Tulsa's defense showed some improvement last year and Graham thinks he has his best defense to date.
Everything here leans towards the UNDER, guys.Comment -
That Georgia play is starting to look a helluva lot better. OSU loses their starting TE and middle linebacker, plus Perrish Cox gets arrested. I don't know his status yet. I also heard their was a major injury to a key player today in practice but that hasn't been confirmed yet.Comment -
Nice write ups...You got me going on the Colorado game!! Im jumping on board!!! nice Georgia line, off the board now!! I should of grabbed it
Good luck this week
Comment -
Additional info on Colorado game is that the new defensive scheme has been well received by the players and very successful in practices. It will focus more on stopping the run -- something Colorado did not do as well last season. I think they will likely focus on stopping the run in CSU game and forcing the new QB to have to pass it. The coach of CSU has waffled around as many as 3 or 4 players at the QB position over the last month before deciding on one. He was so desperate that he even removed a former QB from his WR position and had him running with the first string. I don't think CSU's QB is going to be worth a crap. That's not good whenever the first game you will ever start on the collegiate level will be a road game against your in-state rival.Comment -
Iowa State -13.5 for 1 UNIT (-125) -- This is an FBS vs. FCS cross-divisional game being played tonight. North Dakota State has been a powerhouse in past years going 10-1 in 2006 and beating FBS team, Ball State by 5 points. In 2007 they repeated their 10-1 record and beat FBS team, Central Michigan that year 44-14 and Minnesota 27-21. But, returning 14 starters last year, and moving into a bigger conference, they only managed a 6-5 record and lost to a poor Wyoming team by 3 points in cross-divisional play. This year, the Bison return only 4 starters on offense and 4 starters on defense and are in a true rebuilding year. Gone is the influence and remnants of their 10-1 seasons and this year they have new OCs and DCs as well.
Iowa State was a 2-10 team last season under the HC, Chizik. Chizik got a chance to bail on the program and take the Auburn job, so he did. Now, Paul Rhoads, Auburn's former DC, takes over as head coach of the program. Rhoads has already impressed me. He noticed right off that the players' fundamentals were lacking noting that "they didn't even know how to tackle properly." Starting in the Spring, Rhoads emphasized fundamentals with his players and he has seen a lot of improvement. The players also seem to be connecting with Rhoads on the offensive side of the ball as they have commented on how well they are grasping the new "no huddle" offense. Practices this Fall have looked better than they did in the Spring, so this team is improving in the right direction. ISU has 15 returning starters and they are not without talent. I think with better coaching, these guys will improve over previous years under Chizik. But, certainly, I think they are worth playing in this matchup.Comment -
i have oregon at +3.5 do you think the line will move in favor of oregon or should i buy points? I could always wait until half time but i'm liking oregon tonight...Comment -
Since I have OneNote on my computer and have a file on every team in college football, I am writing short remembrances and reviews on the games I watched to help me remember the strengths and weaknesses of teams as we go along in the season. I thought I would share them with you:
Oregon vs. Boise Game Opener 9-4-09
Results: Boise won 19-8
Although Boise's execution last night in this game was not impressive either, the new QB for Boise, Kellen Moore, impressed me a great deal. For a first start, and even though he still made mistakes, Moore was very composed and his talent of running the offense and throwing the ball was evident. This kid has a chance of being the best QB Boise has ever had if he can stay healthy. While the passing game looked good for Boise, both the running game and special teams play was lacking. The newly revamped offensive line did a good job of pass blocking, but did not do a good job of opening holes for the RBs. Even Ian Johnson would have had a hard time running last night with that blocking. The 3 fumbles didn't help the run stats any either.
Defensively, Boise's defense looked good. They took advantage of Oregon's lack of preparedness and put some pressure on Masoli. Every aspect of their defense was sound against the run and the pass. It was clear that their defense was ahead of their offense in maturity right now.
Oregon vs. Boise Game Opener 9-4-09
Results: Oregon loses 19-8
This was a sloppy game on both sides of the ball with poor execution and a lot of turnovers. Oregon's offense looked inept and the game plan chose to "dink and dunk" instead of going down field to stretch the field out. I was not impressed with Oregon's preparation for this game at all and I have to place most of the blame on the new coach and his assistants. Masoli showed he has great arm strength, but his accuracy was off and he tried to overpower the throws to his receivers too often as well. Oregon has the talent to be better, but whether they have the coaching ability to get them there will remain to be seen.
Defensively, the "bend but don't break" defensive scheme of DC , Alioti, was in full force and allowed Boise 361 yards to Oregon's 152. Had Boise been executing better, this would have been even worse , including the score. This defense is going to allow teams to hang in the game all season long if nothing is changed. Oregon has some speed and good players on defense, but the scheme will never allow them to reach full potential.
South Carolina vs. NCST 9-3-09 Game Opener
Results: South Carolina won 7-3.
NCST is going to be good offensively again this season against most teams, they just simply could not contend with the power and speed of South Carolina's defense in this matchup. No real changes from last season although it was interesting that O'Brien put his back-up QB, Glennon, in the game for one series in the 2nd quarter. Both QBs looked good, but Wilson was hassled by SC pressure all night long.
I was impressed with how NCST's defense did especially without one of their best defensive players, Irving, not playing the game. This was the area they lacked last season to go further. The real question though is -- was the defense good, or was S. Carolina's offense just not very efficient? One thing that NCST will have to get better at is strengthening their front line against the run. SC's offensive line was pushing the defensive line around throughout the night.
South Carolina vs. NCST 9-3-09 Game Opener
Results: SC won 7-3
While I was still not impressed with S. Carolina's offense again this year, I was impressed with two things that I deem improvements over last season:
1.) Better blocking by offensive line, especially run blocking, and
2.) Better decisions by Garcia even though he still threw an interception in the game.
Obviously the crowning glory of SC is their defense that literally shut down NCST's offense by pressuring the QB and overwhelming the entire unit with speed. South Carolina's defensive speed was impressive! Is this the result of SC truly being faster than most defenses in the nation, or is a talent difference between ACC and SEC?Comment -
Great write ups SoonerBS, Loved your write ups last year along with your picks. I wish you would post here all season unlike last where you only Posted 1 or 2 weeksComment -
Nice, to the point write up. Good luck.Comment -
good to see we will be on Notre Dame together...Comment -
Let's minn good luck to allComment -
Guys, I will be out until late this evening so I only have one more play to add and this card is final:
Navy +22 for 1 UNIT
Good luck today, everybody . . . .
Comment
