Pags' Plays 9/5

[xyzky]

Can someone please zap ajboett1 posts??

[pags11]

Cougar Bait,

thanks for your thoughts on my money management system...I understand about my two plays not making your card thus far...GL to you this season...

onthewhat,

good to have you on board again this year...BOL to you bud...

MexicanStallion,

you're welcome bud...yes, good to see we are on one together...

romanowski,

thank you very much my friend...GL to you as well this season...

sarms,

no problm at all...

laxdjock,

you're always welcome in the thread bud...

GoSooners,

good to hear we will be on Notre Dame together..thanks for your time earlier today...

masr,

thank you ol' pal...good luck to you as well this season...

PortsDave,

thank you very much...there's nothing like it in the world, college football that is...BOL to you this season...

trumpdown,

thank you for handling that...

[MickChunky]

College football is back! Always interested in Pags plays, gives me insight into some games I usually wouldn't look at. Best of luck

[dle]

Pags -

I'm very familiar with the talent ND has, but I'm also familiar with what Weis has not done with it. It's going to take more than a coming out game against Hawaii for me to ever even come close to being sold on the most overrated recruit ever in Clausen. He's got excellent receivers and Nevada has a weak secondary. This isn't worth taking them on a double digit line though, because Nevada has one of the best defensive lines in the game an Clausen struggles under pressure. Additionally, that line returns players that had the 3rd best rushing defense in the country and 30 sacks on the year.

ND has a solid defense, but Nevada has a better offense. Vai Taua returns at RB after a season where he put up 1500 yards on the ground, 117/avg game and 15 TDs. And the offense returns a lot of players from a team that had the 13th best total offense in the country last year.

I think ND will win, but I think this is a stay away game.

[ZBOIZ]

dle you have a point. Thats why I'm leaning more of staying away and watching it since it's the first game of the year. This game to me is similar to the Georgia game. I would'nt be suprise if Nevda pull off one of those 1st game of the year upsets. But then I would'nt be suprise if Notre Dame beat them by 20+. So I'll pass.

[odusmykal]

Pags, my friend, feels so good to see Pags Plays again.. Can't wait til Thursday to read your write-ups.. You always do your homework and give great reasoning behind your picks.. Happy to see you posting again.. Best of luck this season..

[LVHerbie]

Good to see you back Pag... Always look for and enjoy your writeups each year...

[cashflow50]

good to see your first post of the season..love the notre dame play..i'll even take it at 17..believe that this team just loaded up with quality players like manti teo..D should be solid this year

[Joe Dogs]

Good luck this season pags......your time and effort are greatly appreciated.......Let the games begin.

[redrum]

i like nevada with the points and would take the over depending on the total around 55 it might be a shootout cuz nevada can score and really not sold on nd defense

[Smails Kid]

Pags --- good luck with your plays. Looking forward to another season of CFB and your insightful posts on SBR.

[snapstick]

Pags my book has SD State at +19. Should i play it for those odds or is 20 the minimum number. Thanks

[lakerboy]

pags i like your stuff gluck

[pags11]

Louisiana Tech +12 (+101) for .5 unit

[ZBOIZ]

Louisiana Tech +12 (+101) for .5 unit

I might be on the opposite side of this one.

You have Louisiana Tech going on the road to a SEC environment for a home opener.

To risky for me. I dont think La Tech score two touchdowns.

But thats my point of view

[pags11]

shrax,

good to see you around the thread again...BOL to you this season my friend...

MickChunky,

appreciate that sir...GL to you this season...

dle,

I respectfully disagree with your assessment of both Notre Dame's defense and especially Nevada's defense...sure nevada can hold Grambling, Idaho, Utah State and UNLV to limited rushing yards, but to call Nevada's defensive line one of the best in the game is a real stretch...we respectfully disagree on this one which I have no problem with...

odusmykal,

glad to hear that you enjoy my write-ups, thank you very much...GL to you as well this season...

LVHerbie,

it's good to be back, thank you...BOL to you this season...

cashflow50,

glad to see we agree on the Notre Dame play...GL this season...

Joe Dogs,

appreciate you saying so...GL this season...

redrum,

thanks for your thoughts on the Nevada game...GL to you this season...

Smails Kid,

thank you very much my friend...BOL to you as well this year...

snapstick,

I would shop around for +20 in the SDSU game, which is readily available right now at most books...GL to you this season...

lakerboy,

appreciate it sir...GL to you as well this season...

zboiz,

good luck if you end up playing Auburn...

[Dan]

great question...I will be playing seven games that Saturday (and one on Thursday) but all games will be very light unit wise...just trying to get a feel for things...

Who are you looking at for Thursday?

[clowncar]

Howdy pags.

Some things to note on Nevada, people, is that they are a team to play on when facing teams with lesser rush defenses that rely heavily on the run for their offense. They are a play against team when facing teams that can stop the run and can throw the ball around the field. I believe pags has successfully identified which of these categories notre dame falls into this year. Nevada looks like the team they were last year with a healthier running back unit and less gifted receivers. Those that have followed Nevada closely have noticed the athletic difference when they face the BCS schools like missouri and maryland. They are smaller and slower , especially defensively. By all accounts , Notre Dame appears to have talent superior to what maryland had a year ago. The defense that Weiss has for this season is vastly superior to years past. As pags mentioned , the linebacking is stellar on paper with Manti apparently living up to all the hype. Weiss has been preparing for both the pistol offense and the rich rodriguez spread offense for quite awhile now and that is a big advantage. Nevada is a nice little club when you find the right opponent and spot but I think some are misevaluating their spot in the college football heirarchy. Nevada will also have to rely on their rushing attack more this season because of losing some outside threats. The other factor that needs to be pointed out is that for all of the whining about Weiss as a head coach , I am not sure that he is not superior to todays version of Chris Ault.

Best of luck this season, pags.

[TPowell]

am going to be on Tech as well

[nevadaside]

Great to see your work again pags!

You hear from Buddybear anymore. We need his Big10 expertise here.
Hope you'll be working with gyno as well this year.

Yeah, this game with NV @ ND reminds me of NV's opening game at Nebraska circa '07.

Lets KILL those books this year man!

[dyosh808]

Glad you are back. I was able to show a small profit last year thanks to you and some others. Looking forward to this year. Good luck.

[MartinBlank]

Yo Pags is back and picking his games already.

Good luck Pags.

[I only win money]

Like your ND pick.. I see the irish crushing nevada.. Im liking penn st -27 to win by 50

GL

[pags11]

Dan,

I'll have that one up for you soon...one hint, Danny O'Neil...

clowncar,

appreciate you stopping by my thread...you are one of the more estute handicappers I have ever had the pleasure of working with...thanks for your analysis on the Nevada vs. Notre Dame game...

TPowell,

good to hear we will be on Louisiana Tech together...

nevadaside,

good to hear from you my friend...I talked to buddybear yesterday...he's very much focused on the last year of schooling for his PhD, not sure we will be hearing from him much this fall...he is a good man though, one of the best...agree with your analysis of this year's Nevada vs. Notre Dame game reminding you of Nevada vs. Nebraska a couple of years ago...

dyosh808,

thanks for welcoming me back...glad to hear were able to turn a profit last year...GL to you this year...

MartinBlank,

thank you sir...BOL to you this season...

I only win money,

glad to hear we will be on Notre Dame together...wish I had an opinion for you on Penn St...GL to you the rest of the season...

[pags11]

Virginia Tech +7 (-105) for .5 unit

[twentyonekid]

hey pags nice to see you posting your picks again.im new here but i know u from another place.i appreciate your capping skills and am looking forward to this football season,...sorry to say though,as a homer fan of bama i really don't like the va.tech pick,lol....good luck this season my friend

[ZBOIZ]

Virginia Tech +7 (-105) for .5 unit

I'm starting to like this play Pags. Alabama lost a lot on the offensive side of the ball and I think they will be a different team this year. Utah really expose there offensive line and defense in the bowl game. If Virginia Tech send good pressure on Bama offensive line it could be a long game for them. Also Bama defense cant just sit in a zone defense like Saban likes to do because V.T has a dual threat QB.

This will be a tough task for Bama

I been studying this game a lot lately

[Cougar Bait]

One down one to go. Got the ACC dog, now just waiting on the PAC10 dog to show up in here...

BTW everyone, that's 3 really good cappers (Pags, Riggs, and TPowell) on Louisiana Tech. I wasn't planning on playing this one, but I might have to tail...

Pags, you see the Va. Tech number getting any better than 7? And do you pay any attention to RLM? The reason I ask is that I find my plays are stronger and there's less second guessing when I don't even look at where the money is going. Does it figure into your method or is it of no relevance to you?

[pags11]

twentyonekid,

thanks for the kind words, much appreciated...BOL to you this season...

ZBOIZ,

agree with you on your analyis...good to hear you agree on the Va. Tech pick...

Cougar Bait,

yeah I study line movement everyday and I believe 7 is as high as this game goes (barring a major injury)...we will see I guess...BOL to you next week...

[pokernut9999]

Good to see your posts Pags, always love reading your write-ups. For 2 years now I have seen nothing but winners from you and look forward to another winning year.

[TodaysAction]

pags11,

Belated welcome back With Joseph Fauria transferring to UCLA and Nate Montana going to Pasadena City College do you feel that will hurt ND later in the season and what type of playing time do you think they'll get at their respective new schools? TIA and

[pags11]

pokernut9999,

thank you for stopping by the thread and for recoginizing my efforts...it will be good to have you around again this season...GL to you this season my friend...

TodaysAction,

thank you for welcoming me back sir...wow, great question...well, you see this a lot lately when QB's don't think they can surplant one of their teammates (much like we saw last week at Miami, FL), these QB's are flocking to other programs...sometimes they go the route Montana did, bouncing back to a J.C...He says he wants to come back to Notre Dame but I doubt he will...I do think the two transfers may hurt the futre of Notre Dame's QB position, but with Sharpley coming back from the baseball team they should be alright this year...GL to you this year...

[dave11486]

Pags, really liking these plays so far. Can't say I like week 1 so much, but there are some gems out there. Got any words of wisdom for a good approach to opening week? Best of luck this season man.

[pags11]

dave,

thanks for checking in sir...my advice on week one is to tread lightly, play light and just watch and gather information...no matter how many preseason magazines we read, we can't tell until we actually see these teams play...

[icemantbi]

Liking Virgina Tech as well Pags... less than a week to go now... cannot wait!