Army favored, Navy an underdog: Week 1 trends to know 🏈
Army favored, Navy an underdog: Week 1 trends to know
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College football is back, albeit with far fewer games than a "normal" Week 1 slate. Here are some betting trends and stats to know prior to kickoff, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and are subject to change. Please check here for the latest updates.
Saturday, Sept. 5
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Army Black Knights (-3.5, 55.5), 1:30 p.m. ET
The Blue Raiders are 1-8 SU (2-7 ATS) versus FBS opponents in season openers under head coach Rick Stockstill.
Over is 9-1 in Middle Tennessee's last nine games versus nonconference opponents dating to 2018.
Army is 4-11 ATS in season openers in the past 15 seasons, but three of those covers came since 2014 under head coach Jeff Monken.
Stats to know: Both teams rank near the bottom in percent of returning production on defense. Middle Tennessee's defense returns players who accounted for 51% (111th) of its tackles in 2019 while Army gets back 49% (114th).
SMU Mustangs (-22.5, 69.5) at Texas State Bobcats, 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Given the total has hung around 70, the over is 16-9 in the last 25 season openers with a total of 70 or higher, including 9-3 in games involving only FBS teams. SMU is the only team to play in more than two such games against FBS opponents (O-U is 2-2).
SMU is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite in the past three seasons.
Texas State is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.
Stats to know: These two teams were polar opposites when it came to pace last season. SMU's 79.8 plays per game trailed only Wake Forest for most in FBS, while Texas State's 64 plays per game tied for 114th out of 130 teams. Including a 47-17 loss at SMU, Texas State played seven teams that averaged over 70 plays per game in 2019. The Bobcats were 1-5-1 ATS in those games.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers (-19, 73.5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Prior to his arrival at Memphis, second-year offensive coordinator Kevin Johns has been either OC or co-OC at Texas Tech (2018), Western Michigan (2017) and Indiana (2011-16). Games involving those Johns-led offenses combined to go over the total 72 of 111 times (65%).
In the past 15 seasons, Memphis is 29-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Arkansas State is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons versus nonconference teams and 4-10 ATS as an underdog against nonconference foes since head coach Blake Anderson took over in 2014.
Stats to know: In 2015, the Red Wolves (+11.5) beat Appalachian State 40-27 in the only prior instance they have been double-digit underdogs versus a non-Power 5 opponent under Anderson.
Monday, Sept. 7
BYU Cougars (-1.5, 49.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Since 2000, the under is 16-3 in BYU season openers, including 4-0 under head coach Kalani Sitake. The Cougars are also 14-5 ATS in those games, although just 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU) under Sitake.
BYU is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games, including five straight ATS losses. The last time the Cougars suffered six straight ATS losses was a 0-9 stretch from 2016 to 2017 that included a 1-7 SU start to 2017, the program's worst eight-game start in the FBS era.
The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) since a 42-0 loss at Cincinnati in 2018.
Navy is 53-13 at home under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, including 11-1 in home openers.
Stats to know: BYU finished 7-6 last season despite traveling the second-most miles (15,249) and leading the country with 49 different players starting a game, per Phil Steele. The Cougars also struggled in the red zone with 60 trips (T-16th-most in FBS) but a red zone TD percentage that ranked 108th (52%).
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL
College football is back, albeit with far fewer games than a "normal" Week 1 slate. Here are some betting trends and stats to know prior to kickoff, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and are subject to change. Please check here for the latest updates.
Saturday, Sept. 5
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Army Black Knights (-3.5, 55.5), 1:30 p.m. ET
The Blue Raiders are 1-8 SU (2-7 ATS) versus FBS opponents in season openers under head coach Rick Stockstill.
Over is 9-1 in Middle Tennessee's last nine games versus nonconference opponents dating to 2018.
Army is 4-11 ATS in season openers in the past 15 seasons, but three of those covers came since 2014 under head coach Jeff Monken.
Stats to know: Both teams rank near the bottom in percent of returning production on defense. Middle Tennessee's defense returns players who accounted for 51% (111th) of its tackles in 2019 while Army gets back 49% (114th).
SMU Mustangs (-22.5, 69.5) at Texas State Bobcats, 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Given the total has hung around 70, the over is 16-9 in the last 25 season openers with a total of 70 or higher, including 9-3 in games involving only FBS teams. SMU is the only team to play in more than two such games against FBS opponents (O-U is 2-2).
SMU is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite in the past three seasons.
Texas State is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.
Stats to know: These two teams were polar opposites when it came to pace last season. SMU's 79.8 plays per game trailed only Wake Forest for most in FBS, while Texas State's 64 plays per game tied for 114th out of 130 teams. Including a 47-17 loss at SMU, Texas State played seven teams that averaged over 70 plays per game in 2019. The Bobcats were 1-5-1 ATS in those games.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers (-19, 73.5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Prior to his arrival at Memphis, second-year offensive coordinator Kevin Johns has been either OC or co-OC at Texas Tech (2018), Western Michigan (2017) and Indiana (2011-16). Games involving those Johns-led offenses combined to go over the total 72 of 111 times (65%).
In the past 15 seasons, Memphis is 29-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Arkansas State is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons versus nonconference teams and 4-10 ATS as an underdog against nonconference foes since head coach Blake Anderson took over in 2014.
Stats to know: In 2015, the Red Wolves (+11.5) beat Appalachian State 40-27 in the only prior instance they have been double-digit underdogs versus a non-Power 5 opponent under Anderson.
Monday, Sept. 7
BYU Cougars (-1.5, 49.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Since 2000, the under is 16-3 in BYU season openers, including 4-0 under head coach Kalani Sitake. The Cougars are also 14-5 ATS in those games, although just 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU) under Sitake.
BYU is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games, including five straight ATS losses. The last time the Cougars suffered six straight ATS losses was a 0-9 stretch from 2016 to 2017 that included a 1-7 SU start to 2017, the program's worst eight-game start in the FBS era.
The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) since a 42-0 loss at Cincinnati in 2018.
Navy is 53-13 at home under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, including 11-1 in home openers.
Stats to know: BYU finished 7-6 last season despite traveling the second-most miles (15,249) and leading the country with 49 different players starting a game, per Phil Steele. The Cougars also struggled in the red zone with 60 trips (T-16th-most in FBS) but a red zone TD percentage that ranked 108th (52%).