CFB Plays - Week 14

**LT Profits** · 11-28-19, 05:42 PM

CFB Additions Friday & Saturday

4 CFB Plays

FRIDAY, 11/29
Iowa -5.5 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/30
Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 50-58-1, -10.94

**LT Profits** · 11-30-19, 11:17 AM

5 CFB Additions Saturday

8 CFB Plays

SATURDAY, 11/30
Indiana -6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
Rice -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Southern Miss / FAU OVER 55.5 -105 (Heritage)
Vanderbilt / Tennessee OVER 47.5 -105 (Heritage)
California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
Army +120 ML (5 Dimes)

YTD: 50-59-1, -11.99

**RavensFan2k3** · 11-30-19, 11:23 AM

I do like Army

**ClippersSux** · 11-30-19, 11:26 AM

LT,
I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.

**LT Profits** · 11-30-19, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by ClippersSux

LT,
I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.

Not with current sbrcontests platform no. There has been talk of upgrading the system though, but I am not privy to those conversations.

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 11:45 AM

LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public

**LT Profits** · 11-30-19, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public

What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.

What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.

NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 01:49 PM

I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix

**LT Profits** · 11-30-19, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.

NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long

NONE of this matters. I am not saying you can't go 4-0, but it would have nothing to do with ticket count.

Also, in past years the models have often naturally put me on the unpopular sides like you are suggesting because that is where the value has historically been since books were able to shade the popular sides a tad. In other words, I did not seek out unpopular sides, I just ended up there naturally a lot.

This year has been totally different as I have ended up on more favorites than ever before. One factor there is the public becoming more sophistcated, making it harder to shade lines. Thank God for NBA and NHL. lol

**POOLSIDE** · 11-30-19, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.

That was unnecessary.

**RavensFan2k3** · 11-30-19, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix

Oh shit

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by POOLSIDE

That was unnecessary.

No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 03:45 PM

it’s good to model quantitatively

But ignoring the qualitative aspects

**POOLSIDE** · 11-30-19, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by flakeandbake

No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it

Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.

**flakeandbake** · 11-30-19, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by POOLSIDE

Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.

No one gives me credit on this forum. Regardless, you’re right I shouldn’t say that

I apologize @ LT

Would like to see you on all three