CFB Plays - Week 14

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    CFB Plays - Week 14
    TUESDAY, 11/26
    Western Michigan -8.5 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 50-57-1, -9.89
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    CFB Additions Friday & Saturday

    4 CFB Plays

    FRIDAY, 11/29
    Iowa -5.5 -105 (Heritage)

    SATURDAY, 11/30
    Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
    Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 50-58-1, -10.94
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      5 CFB Additions Saturday

      8 CFB Plays

      SATURDAY, 11/30
      Indiana -6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
      Middle Tennessee +8 -102 (5 Dimes)
      Rice -6.5 -105 (Heritage)
      Boston College +8.5 -105 (Heritage)
      Southern Miss / FAU OVER 55.5 -105 (Heritage)
      Vanderbilt / Tennessee OVER 47.5 -105 (Heritage)

      California -1.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
      Army +120 ML (5 Dimes)


      YTD: 50-59-1, -11.99
      Comment
      • RavensFan2k3
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-18-12
        • 17378

        #4
        I do like Army
        Last edited by RavensFan2k3; 11-30-19, 11:43 AM.
        Comment
        • ClippersSux
          SBR Hustler
          • 12-10-10
          • 95

          #5
          LT,
          I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            Originally posted by ClippersSux
            LT,
            I have a general question. Any chance your site will have first half lines in the handicapping contests? I know you have first lines available to bet in the SBR Sportsbook.
            Not with current sbrcontests platform no. There has been talk of upgrading the system though, but I am not privy to those conversations.
            Comment
            • flakeandbake
              SBR MVP
              • 06-21-10
              • 3672

              #7
              LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

              The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by flakeandbake
                LT I have a general question — how/ why do you land on BC +8.5 when there’s 2 other identical lines with NW and Duke

                The only difference between the three is the public is on BC which is why I’m wondering why you disregard the public
                What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.
                Comment
                • flakeandbake
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-21-10
                  • 3672

                  #9
                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                  What does fact that there are two other games with identical lines have to do with anything? BC is only one of those three where model shows nice enough variance.
                  What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.


                  NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

                  Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

                  BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

                  You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long
                  Comment
                  • flakeandbake
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-21-10
                    • 3672

                    #10
                    I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by flakeandbake
                      What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.


                      NW will cover +6.5 (30% of tickets on NW spread & ml)

                      Duke will prob cover +9.5 ( 35% of tickets on Duke spread but 75% Duke ml)

                      BC ... not sure will cover +8.5 (55% public on spread and 75% ml)

                      You’ve made the same mistake the entire year all year long
                      NONE of this matters. I am not saying you can't go 4-0, but it would have nothing to do with ticket count.

                      Also, in past years the models have often naturally put me on the unpopular sides like you are suggesting because that is where the value has historically been since books were able to shade the popular sides a tad. In other words, I did not seek out unpopular sides, I just ended up there naturally a lot.

                      This year has been totally different as I have ended up on more favorites than ever before. One factor there is the public becoming more sophistcated, making it harder to shade lines. Thank God for NBA and NHL. lol
                      Comment
                      • POOLSIDE
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-06-14
                        • 2839

                        #12
                        Originally posted by flakeandbake
                        What I’m saying is that you’re a fuxking moron for trusting a model and never accounting for the public.
                        That was unnecessary.
                        Comment
                        • RavensFan2k3
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-18-12
                          • 17378

                          #13
                          Originally posted by flakeandbake
                          I’m letting you hear it today and calling it in advance to prove a point — models don’t work if they aren’t accounting for the % of tix
                          Oh shit
                          Comment
                          • flakeandbake
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-21-10
                            • 3672

                            #14
                            Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                            That was unnecessary.
                            No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it
                            Comment
                            • flakeandbake
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-21-10
                              • 3672

                              #15
                              it’s good to model quantitatively

                              But ignoring the qualitative aspects
                              Comment
                              • POOLSIDE
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-06-14
                                • 2839

                                #16
                                Originally posted by flakeandbake
                                No it’s not dude. This is a gambling forum — and if you want to post fades 24/7 365 someone is going to say something about it
                                Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.
                                Comment
                                • flakeandbake
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-21-10
                                  • 3672

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                                  Yes it was. You can say something without calling someone a fukking moron. At least, people who aren’t stupid can. I may have given you too much credit. I apologize for that.
                                  No one gives me credit on this forum. Regardless, you’re right I shouldn’t say that

                                  I apologize @ LT

                                  Would like to see you on all three
                                  Comment
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