Early CFB betting look for Week 6
Early CFB betting look for Week 6: Time to move on from USC?
Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside as we identify two Power 5 coaches on their way out, revisit defending conference champ Boise State's grip on Mountain West dominance and explain how to decide when to get involved with huge favorites.
Portfolio Checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Sell: Pittsburgh Panthers
You will always hear athletic directors talk about "fit" when hiring coaches, and there's a lot in that word. Does the coach share common values with the administration, the school and the people the school represents? Does the coach have an appreciation for the culture of the region and its recruiting landscape? Are his personality, age, background, reputation and coaching style likely to be accepted by the fanbase? Is his plan to win viable given the program's resources and limitations? Is the level of autonomy he will be granted in off-field areas of the program more than he can handle, less than he needs or just right? And so on. Sometimes capable coaches are unsuccessful in a job only because they were a bad fit, and both the coach and the institution at which he failed enjoy success with their next partner.
That probably won't be the case with Pat Narduzzi, who is on his way out at Pitt. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator attended nearby Youngstown State and spent his entire career in the Northeast and Midwest. Narduzzi was a great match for Pitt. He came from a program with a similar ethos, and fans were eager to embrace what they hoped would be the hard-nosed, blue-collar, defense-first brand of ball that Pittsburghers revere. But the head coach's side of the ball has been a mess, with the Panthers ranking 9th, 13th, 10th and (so far) 13th in the ACC in scoring defense during his tenure.
There has also been a consistent stream of self-inflicted mistakes. Unforced execution errors like dropped passes and missed assignments, penalties, special teams and game management gaffes are all still showing in Narduzzi's fourth year. And the perfect fit means the failure is on him, not the circumstances. A couple of big upsets have bought Narduzzi time, but this is an outfit in decline, and people inside and out of the program are losing faith. A visit from Syracuse gives Pitt backers a home dog spot versus a familiar rival who's coming off a near-miss of a big upset. That would normally profile as a good rallying point, but we're not buying Narduzzi's Panthers this week or beyond.
Sell: USC Trojans
Another coach on his way out is Clay Helton at Southern California. The latest poor second half showing from the Trojans in a near-collapse at Arizona is systemic of a team that too often has trouble sustaining performance for four quarters. The display of discipline that produced 18 penalties in Tucson is becoming the norm. Ball security has been increasingly spotty over the last couple seasons, as has the play of special teams wizard John Baxter's units. The team ranked second and fourth nationally in turnovers lost in 2014 and 2015, but slipped to 68th and 121st the past two seasons. More concerning is that the Trojans no longer command the line of scrimmage against less talented opponents the way they once did. And most troubling of all is the eroding chemistry on an increasingly dysfunctional staff.
Southern Cal is the reigning Pac-12 champion, but does it feel like it? It didn't to Helton's coaching peers. The Pac-12 coaches voted David Shaw their coach of the year last year despite the fact that Helton's bunch beat Stanford twice and won the title. That says a lot, and mostly what it says is that the other coaches in the league recognize this program for the house of cards it is.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos (-14.5)
Rocky Long is a Hall Of Fame-caliber coach who may not get in due to a modest career winning percentage, but he's winning a lot more of his games in talent-rich southern California than he did at recruiting doormat New Mexico. Two of those wins have come against Mountain West overlord Boise State. Until Boise won as a four-point dog last year (despite a yardage deficit), Long was 4-0 ATS and 2-2 straight up against the Broncos as Aztecs boss, all as underdogs getting an average of 14 points in those games. The other top teams in the Mountain West don't fear Boise anymore, and with a win at each site in the past four meetings, San Diego State considers itself a peer. In five meetings as Mountain West Conference mates, the Broncos have outgained the Aztecs by a combined 12 yards, with no team having more than a 50-yard edge in any game. San Diego State is down its top quarterback and tailback, but Long's teams have proven that they're always deep at running back and that the quarterback plays a supporting role in the plan to win.
Chris Peterson's last four years at Boise produced 20 conference wins by more than 17 points. Bryan Harsin's first four years have yielded just 10. Of course, Harsin is 45-13 in those four seasons, with two conference championships, three bowl wins, including a Fiesta Bowl, and an 8-2 record versus the Pac-12 and BYU. So he's not exactly running the program into the ground. But there are ample red flags that suggest the Broncos are no longer head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Harsin is just 4-14 ATS laying points to Mountain West teams that posted winning conference records, and half of those ATS failures have been outright upsets as well. This is a lot of weight to give Long, who has won outright in each of his past six games as an underdog.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Big favorites mean small margin for error, and therefore need to check a lot of boxes.
We naturally want to back good teams and fade bad ones, but the price of admission is often high. In order to lay the really big numbers we want several factors to line up favorably:
1. History in the role. We want to lay points with top teams, programs and coaches that are accustomed to being big favorites and have proven they can cover big numbers in the past. Oklahoma covered five-touchdown spreads three times last year, and has seen such numbers routinely in the past two decades. It often doesn't go as well for the nouveau riche. When Kevin Sumlin, Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M burst onto the SEC scene in 2012, the Aggies had been asked to lay more than 30 points just twice in the past decade, a period encompassing the five-year tenures of Dennis Franchione and Mike Sherman. In Sumlin's first five years, the Aggies had to lay FBS teams 30 points eight times, and covered just twice.
2. Scoring profile. We want a team with an explosive offenses that can score quickly and also one that scores on defense and special teams. We'll often need the help of some cheap scores to get over a huge number, and we certainly don't want the clock grinding away until after we're on top of it. Memphis has covered spreads of 30 points or more in three of the past eight games its played, and the Tigers had at least three scoring plays of 45 yards or more in each one.
3. Coach tendencies. Do we have a coach that deliberately runs it up, like Willie Taggart, or one who likes to let his starting quarterback go the distance, like Mike Leach? Or a coach who sends in his scrubs pretty early, like Gary Patterson, or shuts down the play-calling in the second half, like Kirby Smart.
4. Opponent profile. The weaker the opposing team the better, of course, but beyond that generality we want to fade teams that won't come back under the number once the favorite gets there. Be more wary of underdogs with backdoor firepower, those with a very slow pace of play or those who play hard for 60 minutes even when overmatched. The last two qualities often apply to the service academies, and in general those schools make a very poor target for laying large numbers. We'd rather fade foes that might lay down once beaten. The opponent is also less likely to quit in front of its home crowd than on the road.
5. Depth. For really big numbers, you've got to know how your team matches up after the entire two-deep has checked out. This one burned Alabama backers last week. Bama had a 49-0 halftime lead as 48-point chalk, but relinquished the cover because the bottom third of the Tide roster, while more gifted than the opposing starters, is largely still immature and not yet fully bought into good preparation habits.
Alabama, Memphis, West Virginia and Georgia are the big chalk on the board this week. Run them through the checklist above to determine their suitability before you fire.
Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside as we identify two Power 5 coaches on their way out, revisit defending conference champ Boise State's grip on Mountain West dominance and explain how to decide when to get involved with huge favorites.
Portfolio Checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why.
Sell: Pittsburgh Panthers
You will always hear athletic directors talk about "fit" when hiring coaches, and there's a lot in that word. Does the coach share common values with the administration, the school and the people the school represents? Does the coach have an appreciation for the culture of the region and its recruiting landscape? Are his personality, age, background, reputation and coaching style likely to be accepted by the fanbase? Is his plan to win viable given the program's resources and limitations? Is the level of autonomy he will be granted in off-field areas of the program more than he can handle, less than he needs or just right? And so on. Sometimes capable coaches are unsuccessful in a job only because they were a bad fit, and both the coach and the institution at which he failed enjoy success with their next partner.
That probably won't be the case with Pat Narduzzi, who is on his way out at Pitt. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator attended nearby Youngstown State and spent his entire career in the Northeast and Midwest. Narduzzi was a great match for Pitt. He came from a program with a similar ethos, and fans were eager to embrace what they hoped would be the hard-nosed, blue-collar, defense-first brand of ball that Pittsburghers revere. But the head coach's side of the ball has been a mess, with the Panthers ranking 9th, 13th, 10th and (so far) 13th in the ACC in scoring defense during his tenure.
There has also been a consistent stream of self-inflicted mistakes. Unforced execution errors like dropped passes and missed assignments, penalties, special teams and game management gaffes are all still showing in Narduzzi's fourth year. And the perfect fit means the failure is on him, not the circumstances. A couple of big upsets have bought Narduzzi time, but this is an outfit in decline, and people inside and out of the program are losing faith. A visit from Syracuse gives Pitt backers a home dog spot versus a familiar rival who's coming off a near-miss of a big upset. That would normally profile as a good rallying point, but we're not buying Narduzzi's Panthers this week or beyond.
Sell: USC Trojans
Another coach on his way out is Clay Helton at Southern California. The latest poor second half showing from the Trojans in a near-collapse at Arizona is systemic of a team that too often has trouble sustaining performance for four quarters. The display of discipline that produced 18 penalties in Tucson is becoming the norm. Ball security has been increasingly spotty over the last couple seasons, as has the play of special teams wizard John Baxter's units. The team ranked second and fourth nationally in turnovers lost in 2014 and 2015, but slipped to 68th and 121st the past two seasons. More concerning is that the Trojans no longer command the line of scrimmage against less talented opponents the way they once did. And most troubling of all is the eroding chemistry on an increasingly dysfunctional staff.
Southern Cal is the reigning Pac-12 champion, but does it feel like it? It didn't to Helton's coaching peers. The Pac-12 coaches voted David Shaw their coach of the year last year despite the fact that Helton's bunch beat Stanford twice and won the title. That says a lot, and mostly what it says is that the other coaches in the league recognize this program for the house of cards it is.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos (-14.5)
Rocky Long is a Hall Of Fame-caliber coach who may not get in due to a modest career winning percentage, but he's winning a lot more of his games in talent-rich southern California than he did at recruiting doormat New Mexico. Two of those wins have come against Mountain West overlord Boise State. Until Boise won as a four-point dog last year (despite a yardage deficit), Long was 4-0 ATS and 2-2 straight up against the Broncos as Aztecs boss, all as underdogs getting an average of 14 points in those games. The other top teams in the Mountain West don't fear Boise anymore, and with a win at each site in the past four meetings, San Diego State considers itself a peer. In five meetings as Mountain West Conference mates, the Broncos have outgained the Aztecs by a combined 12 yards, with no team having more than a 50-yard edge in any game. San Diego State is down its top quarterback and tailback, but Long's teams have proven that they're always deep at running back and that the quarterback plays a supporting role in the plan to win.
Chris Peterson's last four years at Boise produced 20 conference wins by more than 17 points. Bryan Harsin's first four years have yielded just 10. Of course, Harsin is 45-13 in those four seasons, with two conference championships, three bowl wins, including a Fiesta Bowl, and an 8-2 record versus the Pac-12 and BYU. So he's not exactly running the program into the ground. But there are ample red flags that suggest the Broncos are no longer head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Harsin is just 4-14 ATS laying points to Mountain West teams that posted winning conference records, and half of those ATS failures have been outright upsets as well. This is a lot of weight to give Long, who has won outright in each of his past six games as an underdog.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Big favorites mean small margin for error, and therefore need to check a lot of boxes.
We naturally want to back good teams and fade bad ones, but the price of admission is often high. In order to lay the really big numbers we want several factors to line up favorably:
1. History in the role. We want to lay points with top teams, programs and coaches that are accustomed to being big favorites and have proven they can cover big numbers in the past. Oklahoma covered five-touchdown spreads three times last year, and has seen such numbers routinely in the past two decades. It often doesn't go as well for the nouveau riche. When Kevin Sumlin, Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M burst onto the SEC scene in 2012, the Aggies had been asked to lay more than 30 points just twice in the past decade, a period encompassing the five-year tenures of Dennis Franchione and Mike Sherman. In Sumlin's first five years, the Aggies had to lay FBS teams 30 points eight times, and covered just twice.
2. Scoring profile. We want a team with an explosive offenses that can score quickly and also one that scores on defense and special teams. We'll often need the help of some cheap scores to get over a huge number, and we certainly don't want the clock grinding away until after we're on top of it. Memphis has covered spreads of 30 points or more in three of the past eight games its played, and the Tigers had at least three scoring plays of 45 yards or more in each one.
3. Coach tendencies. Do we have a coach that deliberately runs it up, like Willie Taggart, or one who likes to let his starting quarterback go the distance, like Mike Leach? Or a coach who sends in his scrubs pretty early, like Gary Patterson, or shuts down the play-calling in the second half, like Kirby Smart.
4. Opponent profile. The weaker the opposing team the better, of course, but beyond that generality we want to fade teams that won't come back under the number once the favorite gets there. Be more wary of underdogs with backdoor firepower, those with a very slow pace of play or those who play hard for 60 minutes even when overmatched. The last two qualities often apply to the service academies, and in general those schools make a very poor target for laying large numbers. We'd rather fade foes that might lay down once beaten. The opponent is also less likely to quit in front of its home crowd than on the road.
5. Depth. For really big numbers, you've got to know how your team matches up after the entire two-deep has checked out. This one burned Alabama backers last week. Bama had a 49-0 halftime lead as 48-point chalk, but relinquished the cover because the bottom third of the Tide roster, while more gifted than the opposing starters, is largely still immature and not yet fully bought into good preparation habits.
Alabama, Memphis, West Virginia and Georgia are the big chalk on the board this week. Run them through the checklist above to determine their suitability before you fire.