2013 Mac's Early Leans

[Mayonnaise]

mac did u do any good on live bets?

[gojetsgomoxies]

I agree... I'm going to take a deep breath, probably pass next week games or go very small, very few plays and regroup.

i'd also say go with your initial leans (which i think have been very good), your gut and do alot more straight betting. this in-game (partial game) stuff just seems so much higher variance to me, and it's like you are turning one pick into a whole bunch of correlated picks. i fight that too when i'm betting ATS and O/U which seem like they're the same thing to a certain degree.

anyway, love your posts/thread. easily the highlight of sbrforums.... thank you

[JM17]

damn you got your shit rocked this weekend.

[jalein]

You will be aiight bro. The most expensive lesson I learned gambling is NOT to chase lost money. I have made a bad situation catastrophically worse by chasing. Stay the course, employ sound money management and your ship will be sailing straight in no time. I am a huge proponent of taking the rest of the weekend off from betting if I take it in the arse on fri or sat.

[jalein]

same post shown twice so I remove the second

[playmaker79]

I don't see how you can play so many games, especially all the first half stuff.....I mean I see how you *can*; I just don't see the rationale except for entertainment/boredom. I mean if there are 8 12pm est college games in a week, sometimes it seems you have 10 plays out of those 8 games between 1st halfs, live in game plays, etc.......it's going to be hard to consistently do good playing that sort of crazy volume. It's just throwing darts against a board. Not that there is anything wrong with that- I think most of us play certain televised or stand alone games just because we want to be entertained or whatever, but when we do we have to recognize that entertainment typically costs money....

[ghetto1]

line moving from den-14 to -16.so what that tell ya? vegas try to push people to take OAK?

[Night-Tripper]

I don't see how you can play so many games, especially all the first half stuff.....I mean I see how you *can*; I just don't see the rationale except for entertainment/boredom. I mean if there are 8 12pm est college games in a week, sometimes it seems you have 10 plays out of those 8 games between 1st halfs, live in game plays, etc.......it's going to be hard to consistently do good playing that sort of crazy volume. It's just throwing darts against a board. Not that there is anything wrong with that- I think most of us play certain televised or stand alone games just because we want to be entertained or whatever, but when we do we have to recognize that entertainment typically costs money....

Been posting here for three weeks and you're questioning/criticizing how someone (with a lot more time here) plays?

That's some funny fukking shit.

[Urbanwildlife]

I don't see how you can play so many games, especially all the first half stuff.....I mean I see how you *can*; I just don't see the rationale except for entertainment/boredom. I mean if there are 8 12pm est college games in a week, sometimes it seems you have 10 plays out of those 8 games between 1st halfs, live in game plays, etc.......it's going to be hard to consistently do good playing that sort of crazy volume. It's just throwing darts against a board. Not that there is anything wrong with that- I think most of us play certain televised or stand alone games just because we want to be entertained or whatever, but when we do we have to recognize that entertainment typically costs money....

Been posting here for three weeks and you're questioning/criticizing how someone (with a lot more time here) plays?

That's some funny fukking shit.

I do not see anything wrong with his post, as he is only trying to understand where Mac4Lyfe is coming from, and I take what he has to say as possible constructive criticism. I also believe that Mac4Lyfe would see it the same way.

[ghetto1]

MAC!!! We need u bro....need your beast mode thought and picks for tonight game. lets cash in big tonight mac.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I do not see anything wrong with his post, as he is only trying to understand where Mac4Lyfe is coming from, and I take what he has to say as possible constructive criticism. I also believe that Mac4Lyfe would see it the same way.

agreed 100% with you..... and i would really underline that first quarter bets are getting really derivative, high variance and are probably correlated with a bunch of other bets anyway. as i said, sometimes i feel like that just with playing ATS and O/U on the same game (i.e. it's the same bet twice and perhaps way more variance than i was intending).

[jalein]

I got 4 units on Indy -7 buying a half point at Jacksonville jags this sunday. I roll with Heritage and jumped on it as soon as the line surfaced. Last I checked with covers the latest line is Indy -9.5. That tells me Vegas is trying to get some folk on Jax so they can middle the money as much as possible and take home the juice. I dont see how this doesnt easily cover by 14 or more. Indy just got done MAN HANDLING San Fran in San Fran. Jax has nothing to grow on IMHO. This one looks like Indy all damn day. BOL everyone!

[Urbanwildlife]

I got 4 units on Indy -7 buying a half point at Jacksonville jags this sunday. I roll with Heritage and jumped on it as soon as the line surfaced. Last I checked with covers the latest line is Indy -9.5. That tells me Vegas is trying to get some folk on Jax so they can middle the money as much as possible and take home the juice. I dont see how this doesnt easily cover by 14 or more. Indy just got done MAN HANDLING San Fran in San Fran. Jax has nothing to grow on IMHO. This one looks like Indy all damn day. BOL everyone!

Unfortunately it is called the NFL, and you might as well flip a coin, and that is why I stay away from it.

[jalein]

Unfortunately it is called the NFL, and you might as well flip a coin, and that is why I stay away from it.

To each is own......especially if that has been working for you. Gotta take advantage whenever a perceived advantage comes available.

[playmaker79]

Been posting here for three weeks and you're questioning/criticizing how someone (with a lot more time here) plays?

That's some funny fukking shit.

well it's actually not very funny; just common sense. I enjoy mac's thread and what he writes.....but I don't think anyone plays that sort of volume(and all those halfs) on Saturdays and expects to do a whole lot better than just throwing darts. Not that there is anything wrong with that as long as you do it within your budget.

[ghetto1]

Is Mac on vacation? No picks this week?

[coca84]

Yo mac attack where are you????

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yeah, I normally make a lot of bets early in the season as lines are generally softer. This year, it's kicked me in the ass early. I'm going to take this weekend off and regroup for next week.

Appreciate everyone's comments and good will.

QUOTE=playmaker79;19734270]well it's actually not very funny; just common sense. I enjoy mac's thread and what he writes.....but I don't think anyone plays that sort of volume(and all those halfs) on Saturdays and expects to do a whole lot better than just throwing darts. Not that there is anything wrong with that as long as you do it within your budget.[/QUOTE]

[Mac4Lyfe]

After last week... I deserve a ban for a week. LOL

That was absolutely horrible and I should get flogged and caned.



Since I've been so much of a fade lately. I would have bet BYU, San Jose St., East Carolina, Boston College, Vandy, UGA, Oregon, TAM first half. The game I really like is Texas San Antonio over Houston.

Let's see if I'm still stinky or will the gambling Gods give me wins with no money on the line???

Is Mac on vacation? No picks this week?

Yo mac attack where are you????

[jalein]

that is called smart betting and getting "off tilt" kudos bro!

[ghetto1]

ty mac

After last week... I deserve a ban for a week. LOL

That was absolutely horrible and I should get flogged and caned.



Since I've been so much of a fade lately. I would have bet BYU, San Jose St., East Carolina, Boston College, Vandy, UGA, Oregon, TAM first half. The game I really like is Texas San Antonio over Houston.

Let's see if I'm still stinky or will the gambling Gods give me wins with no money on the line???

[Mac4Lyfe]

I Still look like a great fade. Heres what I would have bet today.


CFB [125] EAST CAROLINA +13-120 (B+½)
CFB [142] GEORGIA -3-120
CFB [159] MIAMI -16-120 (B+½)
CFB [168] TEXAS-SAN ANTON +2-110
CFB [173] SOUTH CAROLINA -7EV
CFB [10153] 1H TEXAS A&M*-7½-110

I'm still ice fukkking cold. I may need to take 2 weeks off. We'll see...
I

[ghetto1]

Where u at Mac!!!!! We need u for tonight picks Mac.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I'm going to take off another week. Try and get this mojo off my back. My leans were shitty last week too.

CFB [125] EAST CAROLINA +13-120 (B+½)
CFB [142] GEORGIA -3-120
CFB [159] MIAMI -16-120 (B+½)
CFB [168] TEXAS-SAN ANTON +2-110
CFB [173] SOUTH CAROLINA -7EV
CFB [10153] 1H TEXAS A&M*-7½-110

Where u at Mac!!!!! We need u for tonight picks Mac.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Now, I do like the ...

Browns -2 first half in the NFL
Utah +6 vs UCLA, with a little sprinkled on the ML

Browns have won the first half something like 11 of the last 14 games by my count. Their defense is very stout and now that they can move the ball a little more effectively, the defense has time to rest. I really don't see Buffalo moving the ball much as long as Cleveland keeps account of EJ. Bills are a bit banged up which doesn't help either. I kinda like the under also but the Browns could put up some points in this one so I'd feel better taking Bills team under.

UCLA is a fraud thus far. They've feasted on cupcakes and are getting a lot of credit for beating an overrated Nebraska team who ate more cupcakes than UCLA. Thursday night at Utah... Got like the Utes here.


even though I'm not putting any money on games for the 2nd straight week. I'll be ready to rock next week hopefully.

[ghetto1]

i really appreciated all ur thought and times post up here for us. ty i really like utah and since u like it too make it even better.

Now, I do like the ...

Browns -2 first half in the NFL
Utah +6 vs UCLA, with a little sprinkled on the ML

Browns have won the first half something like 11 of the last 14 games by my count. Their defense is very stout and now that they can move the ball a little more effectively, the defense has time to rest. I really don't see Buffalo moving the ball much as long as Cleveland keeps account of EJ. Bills are a bit banged up which doesn't help either. I kinda like the under also but the Browns could put up some points in this one so I'd feel better taking Bills team under.

UCLA is a fraud thus far. They've feasted on cupcakes and are getting a lot of credit for beating an overrated Nebraska team who ate more cupcakes than UCLA. Thursday night at Utah... Got like the Utes here.


even though I'm not putting any money on games for the 2nd straight week. I'll be ready to rock next week hopefully.

[gojetsgomoxies]

good stuff... come back when you feel good about it...

i had a losing week last week... quite a losing week due to fresno-hawaii....

one thing to keep in mind is that the people like us who analyze the stuff during the summer have a pretty advantage first 3 or 4 weeks... now it's much more of a crapshoot i find. plus terrible teams inevitably improve and/or feel more comfortable in their own conference (market of course realizes what teams are really bad too)

[Urbanwildlife]

I am back this week my friend, and determined to make it to the pay window! Came back with only positive energy!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yeah, that's one of the reasons I usually play a lot of games the first few weeks. This year it bit me in the ass. It was like I was on the mark but a lot of real fluky shit that happened game after game. I had some unreal bad beats thus far.

We'll turn this shit around shortly.

good stuff... come back when you feel good about it...

i had a losing week last week... quite a losing week due to fresno-hawaii....

one thing to keep in mind is that the people like us who analyze the stuff during the summer have a pretty advantage first 3 or 4 weeks... now it's much more of a crapshoot i find. plus terrible teams inevitably improve and/or feel more comfortable in their own conference (market of course realizes what teams are really bad too)

[Mac4Lyfe]

I don't like the Ute's play calling right now. Very vanilla.

Browns 1st half is a fukking ATM. They always cover the first half. Unfukkingreal. I don't even think about it anymore, I just know it's a play every week. I just keep getting nervous to really hammer it because the one time I go all in, you know what will happen. Tonight and last week were incredible covers for the half.

i really appreciated all ur thought and times post up here for us. ty i really like utah and since u like it too make it even better.

[ghetto1]

Any pick today urbanwildlife?

[ghetto1]

mac u aint back yet?

[Urbanwildlife]

I started my own thread sort of. lol

[ghetto1]

what ur thread name urbanwildlife?

[Mac4Lyfe]

I'm still taking a break. My leans have been atrocious. I'm hoping to come back next week.