College Football Betting: Texas outside looking in
College Football Betting: Texas outside looking in
The South Division of the Big 12 couldn't decide its champion, so the BCS took care of that for them. Oklahoma slipped ahead of Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns in the latest BCS rankings, and as a result the Sooners will head to the Big 12 title tilt to meet Missouri, champs of the North. Only one thing is certain: The controversy will sell a lot of column inches and air time on the talk shows this week.
It’s not fair at all. Then again, what is?
The Texas Longhorns will not be playing for the Big 12 title – and, as a result, have very little chance to play for the national championship, either. Instead, the Longhorns get to watch their archrivals from Norman, the Oklahoma Sooners, carry the Big 12 South banner against the representatives from the North, the Missouri Tigers. Never mind that Texas beat both clubs quite handily this year.
Those were the stakes during Week 14 of the college football campaign. A three-way tie for the Big 12 South was very much in the cards. Texas was the first to reach 11-1, pounding Texas A&M 49-9 and covering as a 35-point home chalk to improve to 9-3 ATS. Oklahoma had a tougher fight on its hands in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (now 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS), but the Sooners prevailed 61-41 as 10-point road faves. OU finished the regular season at 9-2 ATS; that was the most profitable record in college, matched by only three others in the 120-team FBS.
Texas Tech also ended up 11-1, but the Red Raiders had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat Baylor 35-28, dropping the cash as 22-point home faves to land at 5-4-1 ATS. That’s when the BCS computers went to work. As the fifth tiebreaker to determine the South champions, three of the computer models had OU ahead of Texas. Two went for the Longhorns.
Texas still has a shot at the national championship if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Betting odds were pending at press time; however, the Tigers closed the regular season at 9-3 (5-6 ATS) with a 40-37 loss to visiting Kansas (+16) and were dumped by both Texas (-3.5) and Oklahoma State (+14) in October.
Ball State and Boise State can also start cranking up the snub machine after last week’s results. The Cardinals cruised to a 45-22 victory over Western Michigan (+10) on Tuesday night to move into the MAC title game at 12-0 (9-2 ATS). But even a win over the Buffalo Bulls (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) won’t get the Cards into a BCS bowl. They’re No. 12 on the computers; Boise State (12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is No. 9 after leveling Fresno State 61-10, and Utah (12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is No. 6 following a 48-24 romp over BYU at the Holy War game.
Only the Utes get a guaranteed BCS bowl berth. The Broncos need some upsets next week, and they also need to convince the various committees to give them a shot over No. 10 Ohio State (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS). Neither of the two would-be BCS busters got the help they were looking for last week. Favorites brought home the bacon at 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS; home faves were the strongest play of the week at 17-11 ATS, or 60.7 percent. Home dogs were 8-6 ATS (57.1 percent) to drop the away faves to 125-111-3 ATS on the season, still a profitable play at 53.0 percent. And ranked teams were a healthy 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS against teams outside the Top 25.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) remain the No. 1 team in the nation and the only undefeated BCS club following their 36-0 dismantling of Auburn (+14.5). But the Tide will have to face their toughest test so far in the SEC title game: the No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS). Florida was a dominant 45-15 winner over Florida State (+16.5) to lock down the SEC East; a win over the Western leaders will almost certainly earn Florida a trip to Dolphin Stadium.
Elsewhere, Oregon State played its way out of the BCS picture with a 65-38 loss to surging Oregon (+2.5). That allows No. 5 USC a trip to the Rose Bowl against No. 8 Penn State (11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS), provided the Trojans can beat UCLA on Saturday. Early odds had USC favored by 30 points.
The Trojans are 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS after embarrassing Notre Dame 38-3 as 33.5-point home faves. USC won’t go to Miami, but defeating the Irish still means something in this ongoing rivalry. It might even cost Charlie Weis his job.
The South Division of the Big 12 couldn't decide its champion, so the BCS took care of that for them. Oklahoma slipped ahead of Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns in the latest BCS rankings, and as a result the Sooners will head to the Big 12 title tilt to meet Missouri, champs of the North. Only one thing is certain: The controversy will sell a lot of column inches and air time on the talk shows this week.
It’s not fair at all. Then again, what is?
The Texas Longhorns will not be playing for the Big 12 title – and, as a result, have very little chance to play for the national championship, either. Instead, the Longhorns get to watch their archrivals from Norman, the Oklahoma Sooners, carry the Big 12 South banner against the representatives from the North, the Missouri Tigers. Never mind that Texas beat both clubs quite handily this year.
Those were the stakes during Week 14 of the college football campaign. A three-way tie for the Big 12 South was very much in the cards. Texas was the first to reach 11-1, pounding Texas A&M 49-9 and covering as a 35-point home chalk to improve to 9-3 ATS. Oklahoma had a tougher fight on its hands in Stillwater against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (now 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS), but the Sooners prevailed 61-41 as 10-point road faves. OU finished the regular season at 9-2 ATS; that was the most profitable record in college, matched by only three others in the 120-team FBS.
Texas Tech also ended up 11-1, but the Red Raiders had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat Baylor 35-28, dropping the cash as 22-point home faves to land at 5-4-1 ATS. That’s when the BCS computers went to work. As the fifth tiebreaker to determine the South champions, three of the computer models had OU ahead of Texas. Two went for the Longhorns.
Texas still has a shot at the national championship if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Betting odds were pending at press time; however, the Tigers closed the regular season at 9-3 (5-6 ATS) with a 40-37 loss to visiting Kansas (+16) and were dumped by both Texas (-3.5) and Oklahoma State (+14) in October.
Ball State and Boise State can also start cranking up the snub machine after last week’s results. The Cardinals cruised to a 45-22 victory over Western Michigan (+10) on Tuesday night to move into the MAC title game at 12-0 (9-2 ATS). But even a win over the Buffalo Bulls (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) won’t get the Cards into a BCS bowl. They’re No. 12 on the computers; Boise State (12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is No. 9 after leveling Fresno State 61-10, and Utah (12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is No. 6 following a 48-24 romp over BYU at the Holy War game.
Only the Utes get a guaranteed BCS bowl berth. The Broncos need some upsets next week, and they also need to convince the various committees to give them a shot over No. 10 Ohio State (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS). Neither of the two would-be BCS busters got the help they were looking for last week. Favorites brought home the bacon at 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS; home faves were the strongest play of the week at 17-11 ATS, or 60.7 percent. Home dogs were 8-6 ATS (57.1 percent) to drop the away faves to 125-111-3 ATS on the season, still a profitable play at 53.0 percent. And ranked teams were a healthy 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS against teams outside the Top 25.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) remain the No. 1 team in the nation and the only undefeated BCS club following their 36-0 dismantling of Auburn (+14.5). But the Tide will have to face their toughest test so far in the SEC title game: the No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS). Florida was a dominant 45-15 winner over Florida State (+16.5) to lock down the SEC East; a win over the Western leaders will almost certainly earn Florida a trip to Dolphin Stadium.
Elsewhere, Oregon State played its way out of the BCS picture with a 65-38 loss to surging Oregon (+2.5). That allows No. 5 USC a trip to the Rose Bowl against No. 8 Penn State (11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS), provided the Trojans can beat UCLA on Saturday. Early odds had USC favored by 30 points.
The Trojans are 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS after embarrassing Notre Dame 38-3 as 33.5-point home faves. USC won’t go to Miami, but defeating the Irish still means something in this ongoing rivalry. It might even cost Charlie Weis his job.