So...UCLA Benefits by LOSING Tomorrow?

[LT Profits]

They are already assured spot in Pac-12 Championship Game, where the winner get an automatic BCS bowl berth. So this is a meaningless game for them from a standings viewpoint because being 10-2 or 9-3 entering that game does not change a single thing. What DOES matter is a loss tomorrow sets up a rematch with Stanford, whereas if UCLA wins, they get OREGON. What would you do?

[LT Profits]

I should add that the initial post assumes Oregon wins tomorrow. Oregon plays at 3:00 ET, UCLA at 6:30 ET. If Oregon loses, than second game is meaningless for both sides with UCLA/Standford rematch already assured.

[wtt0315]

good to know.. thanks for the info..

[Louisvillekid1]

Are you advocating a big play on Stanford here?

[LT Profits]

Are you advocating a big play on Stanford here?

More like thinking out loud wondering if I am missing something. I wish there was more time between the games but unless someone sees a flaw in my logic and Oregon wins or its looks like they are going to win close to 6:30, then yes, BIG play on Stanford might be in order.

[Mikail]

Solid info. Possibly meaningless but maybe not though. These are the kind of posts we need more of on the forum. Good job LTProfits.

[broadway6]

didn't oregon lose to stanford @ oregon?

[LT Profits]

didn't oregon lose to stanford @ oregon?

What does that have to do with my post? If you were UCLA, who would you rather play, ESPECIALLY after scouting Stanford first hand this week.

[seaborneq]

Ucla is under new management. Mora will play to win. Players want another shot at Oregon after 50 point blasting last year. Now I can see Mora laying an egg in the bowl game after the next two games.

[broadway6]

stanford has a big time defense. oregon has a big time offense. ucla loses to both, doesn't matter

[SamDiamond]

I'm confused.

Didn't Stanford settle this issue last week @ Eugene?

Why would playing Oregon be more difficult than playing Stanford?

Let me ask you this. You're focusing on Oregon's offense.

Which defense would you rather face, Oregon's or Stanford's?

[LT Profits]

Ucla is under new management. Mora will play to win. Players want another shot at Oregon after 50 point blasting last year. Now I can see Mora laying an egg in the bowl game after the next two games.

Is it more important to get another shot at Oregon OR to get a BCS berth? UCLA would be big dogs vs. Oregon (+14?) and close to Pick vs. Stanford.

[broadway6]

What does that have to do with my post? If you were UCLA, who would you rather play, ESPECIALLY after scouting Stanford first hand this week.

i meant stanford beat oregon, so they are better. everyone still thinks oregon is this great team, but they have no defense.

[SamDiamond]

Is it more important to get another shot at Oregon OR to get a BCS berth? UCLA would be big dogs vs. Oregon (+14?) and close to Pick vs. Stanford.

Forget lines for a second, since we're discussing which team UCLA would rather face.

What makes Oregon the more fearful team? I seriously don't understand this line of thinking. Stanford settled this issue. They're the better team.

[milwaukee mike]

i meant stanford beat oregon, so they are better. everyone still thinks oregon is this great team, but they have no defense.

really? stanford beat oregon so they are better.

WOW

so i guess by that logic the colts are better than the packers?

and the chiefs are better than the saints

etc etc

[LT Profits]

I'm confused.

Didn't Stanford settle this issue last week @ Eugene?

Why would playing Oregon be more difficult than playing Stanford?

Let me ask you this. You're focusing on Oregon's offense.

Which defense would you rather face, Oregon's or Stanford's?

Difference between the offenses is MUCH bigger than difference between the defenses. Oregon defense doesn't get enough credit, they are only allowing 5.0 yards per play overall. Bottom line though is the 14 or so point difference in the spread between facing Oregon or Stanford.

[broadway6]

really? stanford beat oregon so they are better.

WOW

so i guess by that logic the colts are better than the packers?

and the chiefs are better than the saints

etc etc

on that given day they were better..... with your logic of thinking the top seed wins every game

[milwaukee mike]

and what about stanford? they lost to washington so that settles it, washington is the best team in the pac 12.

no wait, washington just lost to washington st. so that settles it, washington st is the best team in the pac 12

[broadway6]

and what about stanford? they lost to washington so that settles it, washington is the best team in the pac 12.

no wait, washington just lost to washington st. so that settles it, washington st is the best team in the pac 12

if a -20 favorite can lose at home...they can lose on a neutral site playing another quality opponent. doesn't matter, ucla is not good enough to beat either team.

[seaborneq]

Is it more important to get another shot at Oregon OR to get a BCS berth? UCLA would be big dogs vs. Oregon (+14?) and close to Pick vs. Stanford.

Trust me. Chip Kelly is headed to another coaching situation. Now is the time to play him. He gets very tight in big games and coaches very differently. Stanford is playing a freshman qb, UCLA shouldn't want a rematch with the Cardinal defense.

[LT Profits]

Forget lines for a second, since we're discussing which team UCLA would rather face.

What makes Oregon the more fearful team? I seriously don't understand this line of thinking. Stanford settled this issue. They're the better team.

Because Stanford is NOT the better team. If Oregon and Stanford played again on a neutral field, Oregon would be between -13 and -14. You can[t "forget lines" because what better way is there to judge which team is better than objective power ratings.

[milwaukee mike]

on that given day they were better..... with your logic of thinking the top seed wins every game

on that given day stanford was better, with the help of 2 missed short field goals off the post, and a fumble in overtime that could've easily been recovered by the 3 ducks players surrounding it.

when did i say the top seed wins every game? we were arguing who ucla would rather play, and they would rather play stanford. that doesn't mean they're going to lay down and lose on purpose.

[William Walters]

Bottom line.....................fukk ucla

[Sam Odom]

@ WW


NCAA would investigate if there was a hint of a lay-down

[SamDiamond]

Because Stanford is NOT the better team. If Oregon and Stanford played again on a neutral field, Oregon would be between -13 and -14. You can[t "forget lines" because what better way is there to judge which team is better than objective power ratings.

That's silly. Stanford beat Oregon in every metric you can come up with. What makes Oregon the better team?

Oh, I get it. Oregon averages more points per game, so-- i.e. they're better.

No wonder you have a losing record in college football.

[SamDiamond]

on that given day stanford was better, with the help of 2 missed short field goals off the post, and a fumble in overtime that could've easily been recovered by the 3 ducks players surrounding it.

when did i say the top seed wins every game? we were arguing who ucla would rather play, and they would rather play stanford. that doesn't mean they're going to lay down and lose on purpose.

Did you even watch the Stanford-Oregon game?

Stanford had 3 turnovers to Oregon's 1.

And they still won the game.

Stanford also had more yards, more first downs, a better 3rd down conversion rate, for cripes sake, there isn't a metric that Stanford DID NOT beat Oregon in, and this talk 'bout Oregon being better is f'in ridiculous.

[broadway6]

and what about stanford? they lost to washington so that settles it, washington is the best team in the pac 12.

no wait, washington just lost to washington st. so that settles it, washington st is the best team in the pac 12

just shows that anyone can beat anyone...i doubt ucla cares who they play, but they will lay down tomorrow. They are on a hot streak and you don't want to ruin a hot streak b/c you don't want to play another team.

[LT Profits]

That's silly. Stanford beat Oregon in every metric you can come up with. What makes Oregon the better team?

Oh, I get it. Oregon averages more points per game, so-- i.e. they're better.

No wonder you have a losing record in college football.

Not silly at all, Oregon would be a double-digit favorite based on any set of power ratings you look at, ergo "better". You are putting too much emphasis on one game. Oregon was an 18.5 point favorite and closed -860/+678 on the ML at Pinnacle, which is close to -700 no-vig. Even if you want to say Pinny was "off" and chop the line to -600, Oregon wins that game 6 out of 7 times.

[thetrinity]

good angle here lt, sad to say i never really thought of this.

[LT Profits]

this talk 'bout Oregon being better is f'in ridiculous.

Not true either because Oregon is still well ahead of Stanford on the power ratings today. Sagarin has Oregon second in the country behind only Alabama. Just because an underdog beats a team handily ONCE, it does not make it a better team.

[SamDiamond]

Not silly at all, Oregon would be a double-digit favorite based on any set of power ratings you look at, ergo "better". You are putting too much emphasis on one game. Oregon was an 18.5 point favorite and closed -860/+678 on the ML at Pinnacle, which is close to -700 no-vig. Even if you want to say Pinny was "off" and chop the line to -600, Oregon wins that game 6 out of 7 times.

And power rankings also were used to justify USC being pre-season #1, and for West Virginia to be a Top 10 team, and the same for Michigan State.

They are not an absolute. They're a reference point.

You would have more ground to stand on if Oregon had turned the ball over 4 times and had outgained Stanford by 150-200 yards, but you can't. The most you can get--- and I mean-- the most--- is that it was/is a matchup of 2 equal teams.

But you really can't even say that because as I pointed out, Stanford was the one turning it over, and Stanford still outgained Oregon. It was Stanford blowing chances, not Oregon.

I'm curious. How are your "power numbers" working out for you? Yeah, didn't think so.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

if you think ucla will lose on purpose you are fooling yourself. do you really think they will throw tomorrow's game to avoid playing oregon?

do you think ucla is afraid to play oregon? c'mon pal. mora and the players have too much pride to do some shit like that.

surely kiffin would but not mora...

[SamDiamond]

Not true either because Oregon is still well ahead of Stanford on the power ratings today. Sagarin has Oregon second in the country behind only Alabama. Just because an underdog beats a team handily ONCE, it does not make it a better team.

Too funny.

Sagarin? You mean the same guy who has Florida State 19th? With 4-loss USC, 3-loss Okie State, Nebraska, and 3 other 2-loss teams ahead of FSU?

And here's where I slam the door shut.

6 of the 7 COMPUTER POLLS USED IN THE BCS have Stanford ranked ahead of Oregon.

Let that shit sink in.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

Is it sinking in? Get it now?

[LT Profits]

And power rankings also were used to justify USC being pre-season #1, and for West Virginia to be a Top 10 team, and the same for Michigan State.

They are not an absolute. They're a reference point.

You would have more ground to stand on if Oregon had turned the ball over 4 times and had outgained Stanford by 150-200 yards, but you can't. The most you can get--- and I mean-- the most--- is that it was/is a matchup of 2 equal teams.

But you really can't even say that because as I pointed out, Stanford was the one turning it over, and Stanford still outgained Oregon. It was Stanford blowing chances, not Oregon.

I'm curious. How are your "power numbers" working out for you? Yeah, didn't think so.

Um,have you seen my CFB records in past years? And this year isn't over yet. And power ratings don't really become relevant until after four weeks or so, preseason ratings are meaningless. And again, you are basing your opinion on one game.

[LT Profits]

Too funny.

Sagarin? You mean the same guy who has Florida State 19th? With 4-loss USC, 3-loss Okie State, Nebraska, and 3 other 2-loss teams ahead of FSU?

And here's where I slam the door shut.

6 of the 7 COMPUTER POLLS USED IN THE BCS have Stanford ranked ahead of Oregon.

Let that shit sink in.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

Is it sinking in? Get it now?

Forget the computer polls used by the BCS, they are not geared toward gambling. They have your mindset, Team A beat Team B last week, so let;s put Team A ahead even though Team B has the better full body of work. Any rating system that uses W/L records to set the ratings is useless.