So...UCLA Benefits by LOSING Tomorrow?

[SamDiamond]

Um,have you seen my CFB records in past years? And this year isn't over yet. And power ratings don't really become relevant until after four weeks or so, preseason ratings are meaningless. And again, you are basing your opinion on one game.

I'm waiting for you to explain why 6 of the 7 BCS computer polls have Stanford ranked ahead of Oregon.

Oh, and I'm certain, you're just going to tear it up and go on a run these last 2 weeks and get yourself about 48%.

Let me know when it happens, okay?

[SamDiamond]

Forget the computer polls used by the BCS, they are not geared toward gambling. They have your mindset, Team A beat Team B last week, so let;s put Team A ahead even though Team B has the better full body of work. Any rating system that uses W/L records to set the ratings is useless.

I understand you, the more and more you post.

You're ignorant. You don't have the slightest clue how the BCS computer polls work. Do you think Anderson's computer poll has a variable built into it that suggests "Team A beat Team B therefore, Team A should be ranked ahead of team B?"

If that were true, why isn't A&M ranked ahead of Alabama?

So, again, using your logic-- and Sagarin.

You are telling me Oklahoma State should be favored over Florida State because---well, Sagarin matters to you?

[daneblazer]

Mora has an nfl background. If this was week 17, he'd still try to win, but with the most vanilla gameplan possible

[LT Profits]

So, again, using your logic-- and Sagarin.

You are telling me Oklahoma State should be favored over Florida State because---well, Sagarin matters to you?

In a word, YES.. There is a reason why Sagarin spreads and real spreads are so close. And Oklahoma State vs. Florida State would be a PICK on neutral field. Oh and Fla State is 12th, not 19th. You are using wrong column.

[LT Profits]

And now that I look, Oregon is down to -6 neutral over Stanford. So I was off about the double-digits, but Oregon still "better".

[SamDiamond]

In a word, YES.. There is a reason why Sagarin spreads and real spreads are so close. And Oklahoma State vs. Florida State would be a PICK on neutral field. Oh and Fla State is 12th, not 19th. You are using wrong column.

You are using his predictor column, why?

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Even Sagarin HIMSELF makes the disclaimer that using a composite of the ELO Chess and Pure Point formula is more accurate-- and in that case, FSU is 19th.

[Sunde91]

If UCLA wins and Oregon loses, there's a good chance UCLA will be higher in BCS, giving UCLA homefield next week.

Mora will probably talk this up as a meaningful game and won't take anything back. He's on the radio every week and everytime it's take it 1 week at a time, focus on our next opponent, we're not even good enough to look ahead, stay humble, play with integrity, rahrah

[MoneyLineDawg]

UCLA won't lay down, but they might not show all they got......I'm sure they "want to win" but wouldn't care much if they don't

Stanford is the play, and I'm very worried if I'm an Oregon fan overall

[LT Profits]

You are using his predictor column, why?

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Even Sagarin HIMSELF makes the disclaimer that using a composite of the ELO Chess and Pure Point formula is more accurate-- and in that case, FSU is 19th.

Did you just start betting yesterday? It is common knowledge that that Predictor column is used to project spreads, so those are the only ratings that matter from a gambling perspective. I think he makes a reference to that somewhere but users know it has always been that way.

[SamDiamond]

Did you just start betting yesterday? It is common knowledge that that Predictor column is used to project spreads, so those are the only ratings that matter from a gambling perspective. I think he makes a reference to that somewhere but users know it has always been that way.

We're back to that? I know this still hasn't sunk in yet---- but this is not about gambling spreads. It is about which team is better, Oregon and Stanford. I asked you what metric could you find in that game that could possibly suggest Oregon was better.

You couldn't.

I pointed out that 6 of 7 BCS computer polls all have Stanford ranked ahead of Oregon. You countered with "they don't do it right".

Which is ignorant and shows a complete lack of understand about how the polls are generated. But hey, you had a "theory".

Now, you're back to aiming at Sagarin's predictor ratings and acting as if they are the gold standard for evaluating teams. They're not.

I get it. You're a 48% handicapper. That's all I know 'bout you. It makes sense why you think Oregon is better. You simply don't know better.

[LT Profits]

In ELO_CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO_CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
The ELO_CHESS are the more “politically correct” ratings that only care about W/L, making them useless from a betting perspective. Naturally, those are the ones the BCS uses.

[SamDiamond]

In ELO_CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO_CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
The ELO_CHESS are the more “politically correct” ratings that only care about W/L, making them useless from a betting perspective. Naturally, those are the ones the BCS uses.

Mr. 48%.

You left out a line.

"The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO_CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR)."

[zoo youk]

not a given that Oregon will win tomorrow. they could be very emotionally flat after last week. Also Oregon St D line is VERY physical...they gave Stanford a shit load a problems...lost to them by 4. have the 14th ranked rush defense in nation. plus they also have two super star WRs and Oregon doesn't exactly have great DBs. that game is going to be a true war.

wish it was being televised, dont get the Pac 12 network here. probably going to be the best game of the week.

[LT Profits]

We're back to that? I know this still hasn't sunk in yet---- but this is not about gambling spreads. It is about which team is better, Oregon and Stanford. I asked you what metric could you find in that game that could possibly suggest Oregon was better.

You couldn't.

I pointed out that 6 of 7 BCS computer polls all have Stanford ranked ahead of Oregon. You countered with "they don't do it right".

Which is ignorant and shows a complete lack of understand about how the polls are generated. But hey, you had a "theory".

Now, you're back to aiming at Sagarin's predictor ratings and acting as if they are the gold standard for evaluating teams. They're not.

I get it. You're a 48% handicapper. That's all I know 'bout you. It makes sense why you think Oregon is better. You simply don't know better.

And what better way to define "better" than who would be favored on a neutral field? You keep harping on ONE game. And where do you get off calling me a 48% capper? Because I am 48% through 82 games this year? So my past 55% seasons don't count? Or the fact that this would be my second losing CFB season out of seven at SBR? You better get your facts straight before attacking me son.

[LT Profits]

Mr. 48%.

You left out a line.

"The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO_CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR)."

Right but Pure Points is all that is used to project spreads. Maybe he doesn't want to out and out say that, but it is common knowledge.

[SamDiamond]

And what better way to define "better" than who would be favored on a neutral field? You keep harping on ONE game. And where do you get off calling me a 48% capper? Because I am 48% through 82 games this year? So my past 55% seasons don't count? Or the fact that this would be my second losing CFB season out of seven at SBR? You better get your facts straight before attacking me son.

First of all, I'm not your son.

I have no idea what you have done on here the past 7 years. I see you as a hack Mr. 48% handicapper. You are what you are. You are Mr. 48% to me. Sorry, prove me wrong.

I'm just curious why Sagarin gets more value than Anderson and Hester? Because you say so?

Here's AH ratings. Stanford ahead of Oregon. Why? SOS, and quality of beaten opps. Stanford is 2-1 v. Top 10 teams, Oregon is 0-1. Stanford has 5 Top 30 wins, Oregon has 4.

http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

[zoo youk]

LT don't even bother. your wasting your breathe. Oregon is clearly the better team than Stanford. it just wasn't their night. the guy is discrediting Sagarin. that is enough said right there.

[Inkwell77]

if a -20 favorite can lose at home...they can lose on a neutral site playing another quality opponent. doesn't matter, ucla is not good enough to beat either team.

It would not be a neutral site. It would be in Eugene.

I'm not sure how I feel, but I would probably respect Jim Mora more if they play an extremely simple game tomorrow and don't really open up the playbook at all. Would also respect him if he put lots of subs in throughout the course of the game and only played the qb for a quarter or two.

[LT Profits]

First of all, I'm not your son.

I have no idea what you have done on here the past 7 years. I see you as a hack Mr. 48% handicapper. You are what you are. You are Mr. 48% to me. Sorry, prove me wrong.

I'm just curious why Sagarin gets more value than Anderson and Hester? Because you say so?

Here's AH ratings. Stanford ahead of Oregon. Why? SOS, and quality of beaten opps. Stanford is 2-1 v. Top 10 teams, Oregon is 0-1. Stanford has 5 Top 30 wins, Oregon has 4.

http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

Then you are not looking hard enough, I had 5 winning seasons out of 6 before this one (and this one is not over). But back on point, Sagarin lines are the closest to real lines than any other ratings I have seen, just like Pomeroy is for CBB. That alone makes the ratings more reliable. So if Oregon comes out -6 over Stanford, you can jump all over Stanford, using the other ratings, I'll pass because line is right. At -4.5, we'd be on opposite sides, at +7 we'd both be on Stanford.

[Inkwell77]

This is not even a question, UCLA would probably be around +7 at Stanford and they would be at least +14 at Oregon. The ML difference would be crazy as well.

How can people seriously be this dumb?

I think that UCLA has a decent chance to beat Oregon if they do end up playing, but to claim UCLA has the same percentage chance to beat Stanford as they do to beat Oregon.........

[chico2663]

this is and has been a very good thread.

[Sam Odom]

chico , go fuk yourself

[zoo youk]

sammy

[Robber]

I'm confused.

Didn't Stanford settle this issue last week @ Eugene?

Why would playing Oregon be more difficult than playing Stanford?

Let me ask you this. You're focusing on Oregon's offense.

Which defense would you rather face, Oregon's or Stanford's?

Any team would rather play Stanford


Upsets happen that doesn't mean Stanford is even close to Oregon

[Robber]

That's silly. Stanford beat Oregon in every metric you can come up with. What makes Oregon the better team?

Oh, I get it. Oregon averages more points per game, so-- i.e. they're better.

No wonder you have a losing record in college football.

http://www.bcftoys.com/fei/

[zoo youk]

Any team would rather play Stanford


Upsets happen that doesn't mean Stanford is even close to Oregon

seriously. don't even know why this is a discussion.

[Romanov]

Lt profits is the winner and still champion

[convick]

Oregon is going to lose to Oregon St. But when that happens some of these fools will argue Oregon was better than them too. They should be crowned PAC 12 champs now, games dont matter anyways, right?

[Mike Huntertz]

I think we all look for an edge...right?
It IS all about lines, not who is better!

IMHO this is an edge play.

Nice stuff LT....who ever wins.

[Pivotpoint]

Stanford has cashed three straight against the Bruins.

UCLA barely held on last week after 24-0 lead and were outgained by 107 yards.

Stanford RB Stephan Taylor wil have a big day. Bruins will struggle to hold back the aggressive pass rush of Stanford.

Stanford - 3 is the play.

[SlickRick1382]

Don't understand the logic that just because Stanford was superior in most statistical categories for ONE GAME then they are automatically better. If they played 10 times and Stanford won 6 or more of those than sure. Just because they were better than Oregon that ONE GAME doesn't automatically make it so.

[Mike Huntertz]

LT
They don't get it?
All about an edge.......................

[Serbone]

Where is the Pac 12 Championship game? If UCLA wins, dont they get home field advantage? Asking, not sure.

Of COURSE UCLA would rather play Stanford than Oregon.... and isnt Oregon's D-line recovering 2 games ago all 4 starters were out against Cal. Then two came back I think for Stanford. All 4 will make a difference. Not sure on that exactly but all 4 sat against Cal, I saw the game.

Also, if UCLA staff decides they want to lose it, nothing will not be written or spoken, the coaches will just "let things happen" and will not let the kids get pumped up and have them look forward to the Pac 12 Championship in their discussions. And the will pull their key players systematically. Thats how it will be done.

[Robber]

really? stanford beat oregon so they are better.

WOW

so i guess by that logic the colts are better than the packers?

and the chiefs are better than the saints

etc etc

The best one is Arizona over New England in foxboro

So cards>patriots

[SBR_John]

Tex A&M beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa are they better?

I agree Oregon is the better team. They didn't execute well on offense, give credit to the cardinal. Their run defense was somewhat exposed too. A neutral field line would be at least 9.

The "better" team doesn't always win. And sometimes the better teams reads the paper about how good they are and how they are 20 point favorites and takes a solid opponent too lightly.

I like Stanford and the Under 51.5. Stanford has rushed for over 200 yards in the last 2 of 3 and had over 200 yards last year vs UCLA. I think the game goes similar to last year where Stanford wore down UCLA with superior line play. They have beaten the Bruins 70-19 combined score in the last two and no reason to think this won't follow the same script.