Thiago Silva > Gustaf

**Vitooch** · 03-12-12, 11:49 PM

Gus by submission may also be a good play

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I hate that phrase: "much crazier things have happened in MMA". This phrase is meaningless.

I'm just trying to put things into perspective. The fact that much crazier things like matt serra (a primarily ground based specialist) knocking out gsp (a true tactician and technical striker) makes it seem unwise to value Gustaffson at -250 considering the very realistic possibility that thiago knocks him out with his proven power and proven ability to throw hands. I guess we have a difference of opinion on the degree of certainty of this fight. I think I'll just watch this one with no money on the line, but GL to you with your bet on gus. I can see by your avatar you feel confident on the play, and chances are you'll be right and win.

**Vitooch** · 03-13-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

I'm just trying to put things into perspective. The fact that much crazier things like matt serra (a primarily ground based specialist) knocking out gsp (a true tactician and technical striker) makes it seem unwise to value Gustaffson at -250 considering the very realistic possibility that thiago knocks him out with his proven power and proven ability to throw hands. I guess we have a difference of opinion on the degree of certainty of this fight. I think I'll just watch this one with no money on the line, but GL to you with your bet on gus. I can see by your avatar you feel confident on the play, and chances are you'll be right and win.

That Matt Serra argument is tough. Just because something as improbable as that has happened in the past, doesn't mean it will happen in this particular fight. If you were to use that logic every time a fighter with heavy hands had a puncher's chance of winning the fight, I'm not so sure you would do well in the long run. You could make that argument in the Munoz/Leben fight, but Munoz ended up being the smarter play because Munoz was much more technical and well-rounded (The odds for Munoz were similar to Gus's). I'm not saying Thiago doesn't have a chance of catching Gus, but I like the probability that Gus will outclass Thiago technically enough that I would be willing to lay the juice.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 01:08 AM

I was more giving you that example to highlight how thiago's odds of defeating someone by a way that he has demonstrated and proven in the past to be effective should be closer than -250 because there are so many more unexpected results that have happened similar to the one I mentioned where you have a given fighter defeating the other at the others strong point by what was supposed to be that fighters weak point. What I was trying to illustrate was that my argument so far and what has been said about thiago's ability to win are quite valid, and should be even more valid considering the fact that much crazier things have happened as I mentioned before. I was not trying to assimilate the example in the sense that "hey look a garbage fighter can beat an elite fighter, so I'm gonna bet on the can" but more trying to show how the probability of thiago winning are not so bad taking into account the fact that on paper it is close, and then you look at historical fights that have been analyzed on paper as being complete mismatches and then the analysts were wrong. Time and time again this has happened, in fact it happens nearly every event with at least one of the fights during the night. The point is that gustaffson should not be -250. To risk that much for that return is clearly not worth it in this fight. If there have been ridiculous outcomes like a technical and sound muay thai striker in mark hominick being flattened by someone of whom I believe to possess possibly the worst stand up in the featherweight division, is it so crazy to believe that thiago could very well knock out gustaffson since thiago's strength and area at which he has been successful in the past is striking.This goes back to my original thought in this thread which is that it is a very close and competitive fight. Why take unnecessary risk at -250. To each his own I suppose.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 01:17 AM

make less than half your money back, or potentially ruin a parlay you have by taking a gamble on whether or not thiago will find gus's chin. I guess that's what sports betting is all about, but again I was hoping we could find some better opportunities on the card to put our money.

**Vitooch** · 03-13-12, 01:47 AM

Well said. I seem to have misinterpreted the point you are making. I do think Silva has a very tangible chance of finding Gus's chin, however I just dont think it's high enough to make a play on him. There aRe many factors that i mentioned inclusing that year long layout that sways me towards betting Gus, but i agree that the line as of now may be a little too high. I definitely think Gus ITD may be a better play with reduced juice (hopefully under -160) or the fight night going the distance, which will prob be alot of juice but a much safer bet.

With that being said, I do like other fights on the card which i will be eager to discuss when the lines come out.

Good to have another intelligent individual on the forum. PS get yourself an avatar !

**Vitooch** · 03-13-12, 01:49 AM

Sorry for the typos, posted that with my iphone.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 02:13 AM

you raise fair points, yes look forward to seeking other opportunites on the card.

**Rubber Guard** · 03-13-12, 10:49 AM

Thiago is there to get smashed in Swedan.

**Mr.Kitty** · 03-13-12, 11:11 AM

Alex is going to train for three weeks in Vegas now. One week into the training camp and hes spent time at Robert Drysdale jiu-jitsu training with Forrest Griffin among others, at Wanderlei Silvas gym and together with some guys from Team Alliance like Phil Davis and Brandon Vera.

**Mr.Kitty** · 03-13-12, 11:15 AM

Papy Abedi went with him to train so he will be improved after working with these high quality coaches and sparring partners that he havent had access to before.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 03:08 PM

gustafsson arguably got outstruck by hamill in the first round of their fight and against Te huna he was put in trouble and gave up a really stupid take down as soon as their fight started. This fight is 50/50 so the logical play is thiago silva at +200 or to stay away (I'm liking the stay away and look for better opportunities on the card option). Try to think about risk/reward more than strictly who will win. The chances of gustaffson winning are worse than the reflective -250 line. yes all you guys who play gus may win a bit of money but you could also put a bunch of money on a roulette table and win that too. It doesn't mean it was the smart play.

**DSSCA** · 03-13-12, 03:23 PM

I have more confidence in my picks than I do in a chance KO. I like your points, I just think Gus has this one and I will lay a small play on it

GL with the rest of the card as I will be playing it also

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 03:35 PM

GL to you sir.

**Vitooch** · 03-13-12, 04:01 PM

Fosho i just dont agree that this is a 50/50 type fight, more like 70/30.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 05:05 PM

I guess we'll just have to see come april 14th. Nobody's right or wrong until then.

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 05:09 PM

Gustaffson will probably win, I don't like the risk/return though.

**Vitooch** · 03-13-12, 06:07 PM

Fair enough. It's just a matter of opinion.

**DSSCA** · 03-14-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

Gustaffson will probably win, I don't like the risk/return though.

Bankroll management brother! hehe.

Glad we could keep all this civil while still maintaining our own points. Stoked to be a part of this board.

**fosho14** · 03-14-12, 01:29 AM

Be interesting to see some other ppl's takes or opinions on here to get a better sense of how

discrepant my views actually are. It's possible that I'm looking at this too conservatively but theres some knowledgable cappers I talk to outside of this board who share the same view.

**scofflaw** · 03-14-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

Glad we could keep all this civil while still maintaining our own points. Stoked to be a part of this board.

I was thinking the same thing. This subforum has a bunch of knowledgeable, friendly regulars and I'm glad that it exists. I've only been doing this for about 16 months so I try to learn from whoever I can that has a thoughtful opinion and it's helped me improve. I get to generate a nice bit of extra cash from my favorite entertainment. Nothing beats that.

With the ML I don't have any plans on betting this fight so hopefully we'll see some decent prop lines.

**getlucky2win** · 03-14-12, 11:55 AM

gustaf vs davis vid

i have tried many sites and cannot watch the gustaf vs davis fight. any1 know where i can watch gustaf vs davis? thx

**omalley21** · 03-14-12, 12:30 PM

I couldn't find it either. You gotta torrent the event to get it, the pirate bay has it.

**getlucky2win** · 03-14-12, 01:01 PM

found it http://www.video.a-squad.ru/musicvid...?vid=1e8297559

**omalley21** · 03-14-12, 01:43 PM

How did you find that lol? Some serious google skills you got there. I looked far and wide for that.

**sirchadwick1** · 03-14-12, 01:58 PM

Rewatching the first round of that fight, Davis really had a lot of trouble getting Gustafsson down. Gust showed some solid TDD and I'm sure he's only improved since then. Got a feeling Thiago is going to find himself in trouble on his feet.

**Rubber Guard** · 03-14-12, 07:22 PM

And not that Phil Davis was an experienced guy, but his wrestling was still pretty much as good as it is now. And Gustafsson is 25 years old right now, that was 2 years ago.... His TDD is only better. His whole game is better. I think he just got caught and relaxed because it was the end of the round.

Gustaf is a young young man who has already shown a well-rounded game.

**The Fobfather** · 03-14-12, 08:35 PM

I like Thiago and am rooting for him but I will not be betting on him. Too many questions with the long lay off and PED usage.

**Hannibal** · 03-14-12, 09:24 PM

I've always thought thiago was massively overrrated. His mean look and aggression has allowed him to dominate cans...but i really dont feel he is special in any particular area.

I was quite surprised he was able to catch rashad.... and thats probably whats keeping his line at +200 only. I never understood the talk of thiago as a contender. I hope someone with such a pedestrian skillset will never become champ. This is a legit contender vs a journey man.

**Vitooch** · 03-14-12, 10:11 PM

^ Couldn't agree more

**Hannibal** · 03-14-12, 10:49 PM

I also recall thiago getting muscled in the clinch by houston "no balance" alexander who can barely coordinate his beach body muscles...
though i think houston did fall down rather easily as soon as thiago got a leg.

I dont know how much that says...but if no technique, only strength houston can have moments in the clinch.... i wouldn t expect a 6'4 fighter with astounding athleticism for his size, leverage, and technique to be be owned in the clinch by silva

**Educ8d Degener8** · 03-14-12, 10:59 PM

What's the deal with all this pussyfooting civility being displayed in this thread?

Need more in-fighting and name-calling.

**Vitooch** · 03-14-12, 11:00 PM

Thread needs moar gabe and Vaughany.

**Vaughany** · 03-15-12, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Thread needs moar gabe and Vaughany.

Im baaaaack Bitcheees!

**rocky mattioli** · 03-15-12, 07:48 AM

if i recall ,evans thought that silva was such a shabby striker that he almost exclusively used his wrestling when they fought...evans,for a guy who is such an accomplished wrestler has become conspicuous for underutilizing his wrestling base and has become almost exclusively a striker......but he thought enough of silva to use more takedowns in their fight that any other i can recall off the top of my head...he couldn`t keep him down,but he used numerous takedowns to score points and control the fight...

and when they both tired in the 3rd and silva was finally able to stuff evans` takedowns,he almost knocked evans out...

now,this is in no way a disparagement of gustafsson...i think he`s very talented...and rightly the fave here(particularly considering the layoff and silva`s ped issues)....but to state that silva is some hobo and has no chance is utterly ridiculous.....the guy is a very dangerous fighter with power and some skill...he`s not fighting an uber-athletic guy like ncaa wrestler evans or machida here...gustafsson is athletic,but not like the afforementioned guys...

this fight is no bagshot,imo....i`m expecting a great,action-packed fight here....imo,the first guy that ends up on his back will be in serious trouble....both guys have great top control and g&p.....

looking forward to this much more than gustaf/lil nog...dana isn`t exactly giving silva and easy road back into the fold...