Thiago Silva > Gustaf

DSSCA · 03-12-12, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by Wrecked

Am I the only one who thinks the same way???

I see Thiago Silva easily beating him

How would he EASILY beat him? Do tell... I'll pull up a chair, take your time...

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 01:24 AM

Uh oh...

GunShard · 03-12-12, 01:44 AM

Avoiding this fight.

Wrecked · 03-12-12, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

How would he EASILY beat him? Do tell... I'll pull up a chair, take your time...

I'll save the paragraphs of explanation and just simply state that Thiago Silva will easily over-power Gustaf and be able to do whatever he wants to him.

scofflaw · 03-12-12, 09:42 AM

The problem is that it's hard to gauge how much the PEDs helped Silva in the Vera fight which he looked so strong. I'd actually give Vera the nod for superior technique but he couldn't do a thing once Thiago got hold of him. Physical condition was everything in that fight. Also consider that his fights are few and far between.. and who has he beat?

I'm leaning Gustaf but I'm not sure how (if at all) I'll play it. I can't see Silva holding him down or having an edge in speed/striking.

Oblivian · 03-12-12, 10:40 AM

I will probably play Silva small. He's definitely a fighter that can play spoiler. I find this hard to cap, but I'm leaning towards almost 50/50.

omalley21 · 03-12-12, 12:16 PM

I probably won't play this one. I think Thiago is better overall but in this spot I think Gustaffson will probably win. Silva is coming off a long layoff, injuries, somewhat short notice, flying to the maulers native country..

Rubber Guard · 03-12-12, 12:48 PM

Good luck with that one.

Thiago can defiantly win. But I wouldn't count on it.

Seems like people still don't know how good Gustaf is. And looks like they are still overrating Thiago because he looks so "mean". Thiago is a brawler, and never showed any sort of good wrestling besides the PEDs fight.

If it stays standing Thiago is getting KO'd. Can he do what he did vs. Vera? No clue. He was on PEDs, Vera has looked like ass, he has been out a year after suspension. Not sure how anyone could know what to expect from Thiago here.

PunisherIND · 03-12-12, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

Good luck with that one.

Thiago can defiantly win. But I wouldn't count on it.

Seems like people still don't know how good Gustaf is. And looks like they are still overrating Thiago because he looks so "mean". Thiago is a brawler, and never showed any sort of good wrestling besides the PEDs fight.

If it stays standing Thiago is getting KO'd. Can he do what he did vs. Vera? No clue. He was on PEDs, Vera has looked like ass, he has been out a year after suspension. Not sure how anyone could know what to expect from Thiago here.

you make several good points. and i agree, its difficult to know what to expect from thiago, or to be confident that he will win. i think the silva backers dont really know what to expect, but rather, it is more of a value play at the current numbers.

personally, i made a small play on silva at +210. again, strictly a value play. my reasoning is that, if this fight took place pre-suspension, it would probably be close 50/50. you would be silly not to downgrade silva based on all the questions, but even when i take those things into account, i cant justify downgrading him nearly 20%.

all that said, i will probably hedge with some ITD plays.

Rubber Guard · 03-12-12, 01:09 PM

I think Thiago may have value at the places where the line is high. But I think Gustaf is a better than 2 to 1 fav for a reason.

I never have thought Thiago Silva was all that. His best win ever is Keith Jardine. Thiago is an aggressive fighter, but he isn't top 10 caliber. He has been overrated much all of his career.

I really think Gustaf will make Thago look slow. I think he uses his footwork and KOs him in the 1st or 2nd.

Gustaf is 25 years old and just hitting his physical prime. He is getting better each fight.

sirchadwick1 · 03-12-12, 02:10 PM

Gustaf's size, technicality, and boxing prowess will be too much for Silva. Add that to a 1 yr layoff, possibly no PEDs, and the fight taking place in Sweden and I think The Mauler takes this relatively easily. Thiago will most likely try to end it early, will gas out and find himself getting picked apart by the younger more polished fighter. I actually like Gustaf up to -300.

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 02:18 PM

I have no idea how the OP could think that thiago takes this easily. I do agree with him though that thiago's chances of winning are way way way better than the odds suggest.

This is a coin toss fight with only the slightest of edge going to gustaffson. Once again, I don't know why some ppl claim gustaf has this perfect technical technique when he throws strikes... ya it's good but nothing amazing. I would have to see him matched up against the likes of at least a lil nog to get a clearer picture of where his level of striking truly lies. Both men have enough power to put the other out, no one is disputing that. Why risk $ at -250? That is not an intelligent play. If anything a tiny play on silva is warranted.

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 02:19 PM

The chances of thiago winning are much better than -250

sirchadwick1 · 03-12-12, 02:46 PM

Do you guys see Gustaf's line getting better closer to fight night? Im hoping everyone takes the value with Thiago so I can put a few more units on the Mauler closer to -200.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 03:14 PM

Silvas biggest weapon in this matchup is his top control and GnP. Gus has proven in his fight against Te Huna that he can handle an opponent with said skillset. Gus is efficient off his back, and seems to get the better of scrambles and struggles for position. While Gustaffson may prefer to strike with the much less technical, much more agressive Silva, Gustaffson has the capacity to and won't hesitate to seize opportunities on the ground. We saw how quickly Gustaffson sank in the hooks and took a gassed Te Huna's back, delivered GnP and eventually submitted him. Also, we can take Silva's potential ring rust, the effect of getting off the peds, and potential cardio issues into effect.

I would love for you to counter my argument

Grabaka · 03-12-12, 05:04 PM

But who knows if this "new wrestling" thiago showed in his last fight was 100% due to PEDs. He had a ****** up back before that fight...isnt that right? maybe it was 20% peds and 80% back healed.
Thiago also has better technique in the ground and cardio than Te Huna which could prove difficult for Gustie to stand up or take Thiagos back like that. I still feel like Gustie has the edge and he wont be taken down easily but i would like to get him cheaper.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

But who knows if this "new wrestling" thiago showed in his last fight was 100% due to PEDs. He had a ****** up back before that fight...isnt that right? maybe it was 20% peds and 80% back healed.
Thiago also has better technique in the ground and cardio than Te Huna which could prove difficult for Gustie to stand up or take Thiagos back like that. I still feel like Gustie has the edge and he wont be taken down easily but i would like to get him cheaper.

Good counter-argument. I'm going to rewatch Davis/Gus to see how Gus handles a pure wrestler.

Let me also add that Gus has better TDD than Vera does, and PED's MAY have had an effect on Silva's strength in that fight.

rocky mattioli · 03-12-12, 05:35 PM

i think in the clinch,maybe against the fence,thiago can do some work.....he`s a powerful guy and he can take anyone out with his striking......

not 100% sure that gustafsson has a big advantage standing....it`s not gonna be a proper boxing match...silva knows he has to close distance....silva`s the more physical guy....

i think this is more interesting than lil nog/ag....

v1y · 03-12-12, 06:22 PM

i think this a tough fight to call, but the odds are difficult to explain.

gustafsson's striking didn't look that good against hamill.

there's nothing to suggest gustafsson will hold a wrestling advantage either.

DSSCA · 03-12-12, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

I'll save the paragraphs of explanation and just simply state that Thiago Silva will easily over-power Gustaf and be able to do whatever he wants to him.

So Thiago Silva will EASILY over POWER Gustafsson? Gustafsson is the larger fighter with better footwork. He will be hard to catch, let alone overpower. His balance is very good and in the clinch he has a HUGE advantage. Dirty boxing, knees and elbows all favor The Mauler. How can you in your right mind say he will EASILY OVER POWER him? Gustafsson is also 6'4" with better striking. He has not KOed as many fighters as Silva, but that does not make him a worse striker. How does Thiago KO most opponents... left hook. And how do you counter a left hook? Well, being a longer and more technical striker, all he has to do is time Thiago, step in and throw a straight right. Not hard against a flat footed, big headed brawler with his best attribute being a mean look on his face.

Who has Thiago beat? Honestly man, who? Keith Jardine? LOL! Jardine lost to Thiago during his longest losing streak to date and has since let his record fall to 17-10... Oh wait, he beat Vera... Wait a sec... Vera is GARBAGE too. What has he done? Nothing either.

CONDITIONING, CONDITIONING and CONDITIONING!! Think about it... Thiago hasn't fought this level of an opponent ever and is doing so after an injury and a year lay off... Don't you think any normal human will develop a game plan around this? Tire him out with rangy strikes and counters. Move around and then KO him later in the rounds. These are pros, they want to win. There is no bulls*** ego involved. Why would Gustafsson stand right in front of Thiago when he can easily take the fight elsewhere. (Thats they only legit chance Silva has... a KO)

Silva may have a slight advantage in a scramble, by coming forward with strong shots, as Gustafsson has a tendency to drop his hands when backing up. I just don't see the fight ending that way though. Utilizing is range and footwork will be key for The Mauler.

It sounds great to see a really pissed off Brazilian KO guy beat down a mild mannered Swedish guy with technical skills, but it will not happen. This is a sport and they are professionals. Mean looks, PEDs and worthless opponents will get you nowhere but MAYBE a few suckers backing you on the internet.

bjpenn85 · 03-12-12, 06:52 PM

Wrecked, if i remember correctly, did also LOVE akiyama over Bisping.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 06:58 PM

Gus is very difficult to grab a hold of. He likes to stick and move in a Frankie Edgar-esque manner, but hits way harder than Edgar. His striking didn't look great against Hamill, but putting away Hamill like that is not easy, just ask Rampage.

caveira · 03-12-12, 07:16 PM

I think the better thing to do is stay out of bets on this fight

gabe · 03-12-12, 07:26 PM

Can't really use what Gust did to Te Huna when making a point. Gust couldn't do anything to Te Huna until Te Huna was completely gassed out.

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Can't really use what Gust did to Te Huna when making a point. Gust couldn't do anything to Te Huna until Te Huna was completely gassed out.

agree to some extent with that

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 11:26 PM

DSSCA:

I hope I don't need to go into detail fishing out examples in mma history (although plenty exist) but what you failed to include in that lengthy paragraph is the possibility that thiago does in fact close the distance AT SOME POINT in the fight and knock out gustaffson. Yes we know that generally the technical striker will outpoint the non-technical one but if the person were talking about has knock out power all he has to do is get inside for one moment to rock gus and then follow that up with more heavy shots and then a tko/ko. And yes we have seen this happen many times in mma. Over the course of the entire fight, this only has to happen once. I'm not saying that thiago has the advantage, I think gus has the edge, but you have to be insane to lay a lot or even a moderate amount on this fight, and even crazier to put it on gustaffson because the return is shit + thiago possesses the ability to knock him out (even though gus is apparently more "techical" in your eyes).

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 11:31 PM

not to mention that it is a 100% unknown variable even for you to predict with what were to happen if it hits the mat. Thiago might control him down there who the hell knows. Surely theres better places to put your money on that card. We'll just have to wait and see what the odds are for the rest of the bouts I guess.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

DSSCA:

I hope I don't need to go into detail fishing out examples in mma history (although plenty exist) but what you failed to include in that lengthy paragraph is the possibility that thiago does in fact close the distance AT SOME POINT in the fight and knock out gustaffson. Yes we know that generally the technical striker will outpoint the non-technical one but if the person were talking about has knock out power all he has to do is get inside for one moment to rock gus and then follow that up with more heavy shots and then a tko/ko. And yes we have seen this happen many times in mma. Over the course of the entire fight, this only has to happen once. I'm not saying that thiago has the advantage, I think gus has the edge, but you have to be insane to lay a lot or even a moderate amount on this fight, and even crazier to put it on gustaffson because the return is shit + thiago possesses the ability to knock him out (even though gus is apparently more "techical" in your eyes).

Just because Thiago has the capacity to knock Gus out, doesn't mean he will. Don't treat this as Hendo/Bisping, in that one fighter is clearly more technical and the other much less technical and much more powerful. Gus has that length and technical advantage AND has the power and accuracy to take out Silva, or just out-point him.

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 11:38 PM

And Silva has the power and ability to hurt and knock out gus. Which could very well happen. Much much much crazier things have happened in mma....

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 11:38 PM

^ And I understand you're saying Thiago knocking Gus out is only a possibility, not a certainty. I just think you and other people are giving Thiago too much credit.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

And Silva has the power and ability to hurt and knock out gus. Which could very well happen. Much much much crazier things have happened in mma....

I hate that phrase: "much crazier things have happened in MMA". This phrase is meaningless.

fosho14 · 03-12-12, 11:40 PM

if you wanna play the -250 line all the power to you GL. Just trying to shed light on the very real possibilities of the potential outcomes of the fight.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Can't really use what Gust did to Te Huna when making a point. Gust couldn't do anything to Te Huna until Te Huna was completely gassed out.

Taking into account the year long layoff, the factor of ring rust and Silva getting off the PED's, we could very well see Silva gassing if he exerts as much energy as Te Huna did. And yes, Gus couldn't do anything against Te Huna early in that fight, but who's to say he needed to do anything. He survived Te Huna's initial onslaught with good defensive BJJ. Many fighters would be overwhelmed by a guy look Te Huna's strength, power and top game. Gus was patient and fought smart. Silva, on the other hand, does not fight intelligently and more on adrenaline and instinct.

Vitooch · 03-12-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

if you wanna play the -250 line all the power to you GL. Just trying to shed light on the very real possibilities of the potential outcomes of the fight.

-250 is pretty high. I may wait till this line moves, but I wouldn't mind Gus in a parlay or SU at -210 or lower.