gabe on ufc on fx 1 on sbr

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-18-12, 02:17 PM

Best of luck gabe, I dont know what those numbers out of 5 mean but good luck.

I am playing Brenneman too.

Regarding barry, Morecraft has been able to takedown all of his other previous UFC opponents.
Regarding Shafer, see the Houston Alexander fight. I think Riveras ground game is better than Father of the Year Alexander, but IMO Red will follow the same gameplan with the aging Rivera

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 02:17 PM

The schafer line will be Schafer -3.5 if its available at all, not +3.5. This fight goes to decision maybe 30% of the time. If you like it to go to the distance you'll get good odds on it.

The price on a prop matters more than the prop itself. For instance Brennaman/Roberts over 1 round, is a very likely outcome, and most people think it will happen, the price will probably be -450ish range. However Roberts best opportunity is a win in round 1. Taking won't start rd 2 at -450 would be a mistake. Even though it's going to cash most of the time.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

The schafer line will be Schafer -3.5 if its available at all, not +3.5. This fight goes to decision maybe 30% of the time. If you like it to go to the distance you'll get good odds on it. The price on a prop matters more than the prop itself. For instance Brennaman/Roberts over 1 round, is a very likely outcome, and most people think it will happen, the price will probably be -450ish range. However Roberts best opportunity is a win in round 1. Taking won't start rd 2 at -450 would be a mistake. Even though it's going to cash most of the time.

Would be good to include in parlays.

So you can't get +3.5 on favorites, eh?

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Best of luck gabe, I dont know what those numbers out of 5 mean but good luck.

It's my rating of the play.

Thanks.

**Vaughany** · 01-18-12, 02:27 PM

Cant fault those plays Gabe, although personally I can't bring myself to bet on Barry as a favourite against anybody who has a size advantage and grappling advantage over him. Just saw the interview on UFC where Barry says "We've both fought Struve and loss...but difference is I was winning up until getting caught..."!

Has he not watched the Morecraft Struve fight? The first round was a 10-8 to Morecraft - he absolutely battered him. If he can repeat that there is no way Barry makes it out the first round as aside of his obvious grappling flaws, his mental fortitude is also questionable. Question is can he repeat it? Struve isn't hard to take down - partly because he's so long and skinny but also because he's so comfortable and confident off his back that he is fine with being taken down. Barry on the other hand is short and stocky and has a lower centre of gravity, so is not as easy to grab a hold of and force down. Morecraft is 6ft 6 and 260lbs and will be the biggest dude he's faced in UFC so will have a size advantage and tht enough maybe enough to drag Barry to the mat and smother him, regardless of him being a pretty mediocre fighter!

I'd also rather take Brenneman by decision at better odds.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 02:29 PM

Yeah, the line probably be something like Schafer -3.5 -110 / Rivera +3.5 +100

Aldo line for example was Aldo -3.5 -150 / Mendes +3.5 +130

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Cant fault those plays Gabe, although personally I can't bring myself to bet on Barry as a favourite against anybody who has a size advantage and grappling advantage over him. Just saw the interview on UFC where Barry says "We've both fought Struve and loss...but difference is I was winning up until getting caught..."!

Has he not watched the Morecraft Struve fight? The first round was a 10-8 to Morecraft - he absolutely battered him. If he can repeat that there is no way Barry makes it out the first round as aside of his obvious grappling flaws, his mental fortitude is also questionable. Question is can he repeat it? Struve isn't hard to take down - partly because he's so long and skinny but also because he's so comfortable and confident off his back that he is fine with being taken down. Barry on the other hand is short and stocky and has a lower centre of gravity, so is not as easy to grab a hold of and force down. Morecraft is 6ft 6 and 260lbs and will be the biggest dude he's faced in UFC so will have a size advantage and tht enough maybe enough to drag Barry to the mat and smother him, regardless of him being a pretty mediocre fighter! I'd also rather take Brenneman by decision at better odds.

I think if he manages to keep it standing for a few minutes, that will be enough. I think Morecraft is gonna be dumb enough to stand with him for too long.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 02:38 PM

I'm 0-2 betting on Pat Barry. And he was winning both fights, 'til he didn't. He's got to redeem himself. If he gets caught again, he deserves to get cut.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-18-12, 03:17 PM

Like Schafer and Brenneman as well.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 03:41 PM

Khabib Nurmagomedov +105 > Kamal Shalarus (3.5/5)

I think this is a tough fight for Nurma to get as his first fight in the UFC, but I think he's going to come out on top. Shalarus is a great fighter. Very strong, has an excellent camp. His goal is to get the fight to the ground. Whether it's him who scores the takedown or not, I see the fight going there... Khabib has pretty good defense and is great off his back, having won 3 of his 7 victories in 2011 via triangle. If the fight stays standing, I see Khabib using technical striking against Shalarus' wild strikes until he takes it to the ground and gets comfortable, looks for an arm, etc. If Shalarus takes him down, I see him finding his way to the dominant position and/or finding a submission. Only thing to worry is if Shalarus can take him down and be strong enough to keep him there. I'm betting against it. Khabib is tough. He's undefeated, and not against a bunch of cans. He's beaten a lot of really tough fighters in the Eastern European circuit. This is a match-up of Russian vs Persian and I am siding with the Russian. Khabib via submission and more importantly Khabib inside the distance would be good bets.

**FightFightFight** · 01-18-12, 03:49 PM

Always gotta take the Russian against them Persians. Cause he's from Persia. Like your first three as picks, but not the lines. Although what Barry has accomplished is truly inspiring to others with mental retardation, it is hard to lay him as a fave. Personally had him handicapped at -120. No pun intended.

**FightFightFight** · 01-18-12, 03:50 PM

Hey, nice write ups this time.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Always gotta take the Russian against them Persians. Cause he's from Persia. Like your first three as picks, but not the lines. Although what Barry has accomplished is truly inspiring to others with mental retardation, it is hard to lay him as a fave. Personally had him handicapped at -120. No pun intended.

Funniest thing ever posted here.

**Vaughany** · 01-18-12, 03:55 PM

Which ones are the really tough eastern European fighters u refer to? His triangles were against one fighter who is 0-1, one who is 4-4, and another who is 1-3, so not sure whether you can really say he is great off his back based on that. Doesn't mean he isn't, but in order to say he's great off his back requires a bit more detail than just sayin he's beaten three dudes (with almost non-existent records or negative records) so therefore must be great off his back. How does he set these triangles up? How are his opponents defending these triangles? Is he (and if so how) going to be able to do to Shalorus what Jim Miller who happens to have some of the most refined transitions anddiverse submission skills in MMA wasnt able to accomplish despite opportunities, and make Shalorus tap?

Also, u say Shalorus has an excellent camp, what aspects make it excellent? It seems like a flippant comment without alluding to why you think it's excellent? Is it because of his coaches? His sparring? The facilities etc...?

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Which ones are the really tough eastern European fighters u refer to? His triangles were against one fighter who is 0-1, one who is 4-4, and another who is 1-3, so not sure whether you can really say he is great off his back based on that. Doesn't mean he isn't, but in order to say he's great off his back requires a bit more detail than just sayin he's beaten three dudes (with almost non-existent records or negative records) so therefore must be great off his back. How does he set these triangles up? How are his opponents defending these triangles? Is he (and if so how) going to be able to do to Shalorus what Jim Miller who happens to have some of the most refined transitions anddiverse submission skills in MMA wasnt able to accomplish despite opportunities, and make Shalorus tap? Also, u say Shalorus has an excellent camp, what aspects make it excellent? It seems like a flippant comment without alluding to why you think it's excellent? Is it because of his coaches? His sparring? The facilities etc...?

yes.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 04:04 PM

Habib Ngouaogfohagwhgowgadgs does seem very slick on the ground, starting triangles from top position and whatnot. He's also training with Miller from what I understand, so that's a big plus in his corner. Shalorus' standup is LOL slow for the division. It's difficult to grade fighters when their competition is so unknown but I like Habib for a small play at + money, he probably has more ways to win.

**Vaughany** · 01-18-12, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Habib Ngouaogfohagwhgowgadgs does seem very slick on the ground, starting triangles from top position and whatnot. He's also training with Miller from what I understand, so that's a big plus in his corner. Shalorus' standup is LOL slow for the division. It's difficult to grade fighters when their competition is so unknown but I like Habib for a small play at + money, he probably has more ways to win.

Yeah being at AMA with his homeboi Amagov should help.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah being at AMA with his homeboi Amagov should help.

Never bring that name up in one of my threads. Capische?

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-18-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah being at AMA with his homeboi Amagov should help.

Khabib better not lose via phantom knee strike like Amagov ;p

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 04:15 PM

It wasn't a phantom knee, it was a for real dong.

Lawler training for the UDFC championship against Chandler Blades if Rockhold drops out.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Khabib better not lose via phantom knee strike like Amagov ;p

Exactly. Can't believe I haven't seen a single report on that fight. Something was up! Get on top of it, MMA News!

**sideloaded** · 01-18-12, 04:17 PM

pound the books gabe fight the good fight

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:21 PM

lmao

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:48 PM

Jared Papazian +280 > Mike Easton (4.5/5)

Anyone who locked Papazian up early is lucky. I am personally hoping and waiting for him to go back above +300. Easton made his UFC debut just a few months ago against another promotional newcomer in Byron Bloodworth, whom he ate up with his superior striking. You could see Easton slowing down a bit in the second round. You won't be seeing that with Papazian. Jared has tremendous conditioning and will start the third round as if it's the first round while Easton comes in tired. Papazian used to fight at 155 and plans to drop to the UFC's 125 division after this bout. He has fought in three five-round fights in 2011, and was in such good shape, he could have gone another five. He came out successful in two of those bouts. Now on a three fight win streak, he looks to make an impact in the UFC, leaving the 135 division on a high note and chasing after the 125 title. He is going to be in Easton's face from the beginning of the first round bell to the end of the third round bell. He is going to throw everything he can at Easton. He is going to pressure him. Jared Papazian is a very talented newcomer who has great coaching and training partners. He is hungry for this fight and although on short notice, he is ready for it. I find Mike Easton to be a talented striker, but Jared is durable, so I don't see Mike putting him away. I can see Jared getting a submission or a knockout, but more than likely it will go to a decision, and he will take at least 2 out of 3 rounds. Jared Papazian +3.5 would be a good prop bet, as would Fight Goes the Distance, Over Rd 1, Over Rd 2, and Jared Papazian by Decision. I can't wait for this fight, it's gonna be a good one. Place a bet for FIGHT OF THE NIGHT, if it's available. In conclusion, I am taking Jared Papazian, ranked 49th in the world at 135 as a big underdog against Mike Easton, ranked 66th in the world at 135.

**FightFightFight** · 01-18-12, 04:52 PM

So, goes distance at -1000 is good?

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

So, goes distance at -1000 is good?

in a parlay, yeah.

but i think i'm getting over 2.5 rounds for -120 so why would distance be -1000?

**FightFightFight** · 01-18-12, 04:56 PM

I was being a dink. Have you seen his kotc fights? Got a link?

**Vaughany** · 01-18-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

It wasn't a phantom knee, it was a for real dong.

Lawler training for the UDFC championship against Chandler Blades if Rockhold drops out.

hahaha

**sirchadwick1** · 01-18-12, 04:58 PM

I don't know how anyone could bet on Khabib in his UFC debut, especially at the current line. I expected him to open at at least +200. The guy has fought a bunch of nobodies with losing records. I haven't even been that impressed with his ground game considering the guys he's fought. I think Shalorus handles him and is being underestimated here.

Like your Schafer and Brenneman picks. I'm on both of them heavily. And of course Miller!

**NunyaBidness** · 01-18-12, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by gabe

in a parlay, yeah.

Lol, dude you really need a math textbook.

If a bet is good inside a parlay it will always be good outside of a parlay.

This bet is neither.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

I was being a dink. Have you seen his kotc fights? Got a link?

I've seen him fight in person. Haven't seen vids. Would love to if anyone has a link.

**Vaughany** · 01-18-12, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Which ones are the really tough eastern European fighters u refer to? His triangles were against one fighter who is 0-1, one who is 4-4, and another who is 1-3, so not sure whether you can really say he is great off his back based on that. Doesn't mean he isn't, but in order to say he's great off his back requires a bit more detail than just sayin he's beaten three dudes (with almost non-existent records or negative records) so therefore must be great off his back. How does he set these triangles up? How are his opponents defending these triangles? Is he (and if so how) going to be able to do to Shalorus what Jim Miller who happens to have some of the most refined transitions anddiverse submission skills in MMA wasnt able to accomplish despite opportunities, and make Shalorus tap?

Also, u say Shalorus has an excellent camp, what aspects make it excellent? It seems like a flippant comment without alluding to why you think it's excellent? Is it because of his coaches? His sparring? The facilities etc...?

Originally posted by gabe

yes.

Yes...... do you have any answer to those queries? Have u googled "Shalorus training camp" yet to find where he trains and what is camp actually is?!

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

I don't know how anyone could bet on Khabib in his UFC debut, especially at the current line. I expected him to open at at least +200. The guy has fought a bunch of nobodies with losing records. I haven't even been that impressed with his ground game considering the guys he's fought. I think Shalorus handles him and is being underestimated here.

Like your Schafer and Brenneman picks. I'm on both of them heavily. And of course Miller!

They might be nobodies in Pro MMA but they came from being talented in one area and haven't fully morphed into MMA yet. You can see a vid of him on youtube beating some dude named Khadzhik or something and I know that dude could fight. In a stand up fight, he would probably kill Shalarus. But Nurma submitted his ass. I think this is def a challenge for Nurma, but it's no challenge he can't overcome. He certainly has the talent/skill/technique/speed/striking/ground-game to beat Shalarus, he just has to be mentally focused, not feel pressure, and fight a smart fight. I was expecting him to be a bigger dog, too, but I give him the advantage. I'm not going real big on it, though. Shalarus' strength and conditioning could prove to be the factor as he gets dominant wrestling position. That could happen, but the chances of Nurma getting a win is more likely, IMO.

**gabe** · 01-18-12, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yes...... do you have any answer to those queries? Have u googled "Shalorus training camp" yet to find where he trains and what is camp actually is?!

yes.