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It doesn't say you MADE $760 in a week, it says you HAVE $760.
Sick brag.Comment -
Post an unedited log showing your bets for the week.Comment -
Gabe, to be fair you could of just deposited 750 of that...it means nothing showing a current balance!Comment -
It's not an online account, its my bookies website. You can't deposit money in there. I have a 5 grand credit to bet with. The balance is money I've won, not credit. So with the money won, I now have $5,760 to bet with until midnight tonight. Then it's back down to 5k while I cash out $760.Comment -
BTW, that string of losses in the pic was the 49ers ruining a bunch of big parlays and teasers. I could have made thousands, had they only lost by 1 point instead of 2.Comment -
I believe selling your picks for mma would not work, because the way you bet seems to be pretty esoteric in that you bet hugely variable amounts and chase as well. Other people could only benefit if you told them exactly how much to bet in addition to your picks. Most people aren't going to bet $1500 on one pick and $25 on another, because the $25 is insignificant, makes no difference whether it wins or loses. I mean no offence, but the picks you have are not necessarily profitable or different to what anyone else makes, but the amounts you're betting on those picks may be profitable.
But if you're betting at real high accuracy on other sports, you should put some winnings aside and build from that. 121-31 is a bit less than 80%. This thing has a few cappers who went over 70% for the last 30 days: http://www.handicappingreviews.com/t...sthismonth.php
So if you had an exceptional season, presuming this is an ongoing pattern and your brother-in-law made 400k following your picks, why wouldn't you place some larger bets and be like him? It's a no brainer.
It literally makes no sense to spend 20 years chipping away at weekly expenses and starting each week at zero, when you could sacrifice expenses for 6 months or a year, put aside a decent bankroll, and then have all your expenses go away.Comment -
i see a whole bunch of wager losses on tht picComment -
Not my bro in law, but his friend. I'm sure he's got well over a million dollars in his bank account, I have nothing in mine. He can risk huge bets, I can't.
Why would selling MMA picks not work? I would give my picks only, not my bets. I bet on most fights, 'cos I like the action. I give out my picks here, but also tell people who I'm betting on the rest of the fights. I wouldn't give paying customers my personal bets, just my picks for the card. Don't confuse all my bets with my plays. I make a lot of risky bets on long-shot underdogs and lose 95% of the time. I know those are likely gonna lose, they're just bets I'm making, certainly not plays I'm giving out to others.
I can't sacrifice expenses for 6 months just so I can make bigger bets. If I sacrifice expenses just for 2 months, I will be homeless and starving. If I had an income with a job like you do, I'd be able to do that, but right now, this is my main source of income.
Yeah, I've been having a great season with NFL. Much better than the past two seasons, although those were great, too.
I made $760 this week, but I usually make more. I am very happy with things the way they are. I don't have a real job and am making more than a lot of people I know. I don't feel the need to get greedy.Last edited by gabe; 12-12-11, 11:54 PM.Comment -
yup, like i said, the 49ers ruined a bunch of parlays and teasers for me. if they had lost by 1 point less, i would have won them all. except for one, where i had them at -4 and the ravens by 16 1/2 -- neither of those covered.
9ers lost by 2 pts. if they only lost by 1, i woulda made so much more this week.Comment -
I haven't been paying enough attention to differentiate between the bets and picks, but even then the picks may not be exceptional.
I'm not an expert in these things since I don't follow handicappers sites or know much gambling terminology, but I presume cappers with a business selling picks have proven success betting large amounts. Any gamblers on this website with a successful record could just as easily say they want to sell their picks but there might be no interest in buying them.
I tend to not follow handicappers or watch prediction videos, because even following their picks to the letter might not be a recipe for success unless you know how exactly much they're betting. Reading a forum is one thing where you've got all kinds of opinions so you don't get swayed in one direction too much.
But your picks haven't proven to be that different from than anyone else's, and I think there would be little interest in buying from a layman. I guess for NFL or whatever you could sell picks privately like to your friend, or if your record is actually exceptional there may be interest from the public.Comment -
Did I seriously shut Nunya up? Was hoping he'd be man enough to admit he was wrong and give props where props are due.Comment -
I'm not trying to make a business selling picks, although I would love to. If someone who believed in me would team up with me and handle the website and everything, then I could do it. This is the 3rd year I have been capping. I realized I was really good at picking, so three seasons ago I started keeping track and betting. I am confident I would do well as a capper, because I do better than the best cappers I've come across on the net. Your John Ryan's and DocSports, etc. I see guys picking 53% and selling MLB plays for $40 a play. Makes me laugh and wish I had that set-up. I do so much better than those guys that it literally depresses me to think that they're making a living selling their picks.
I hold a sense of pride in my ability for picking UFC, NFL, MLB, and NBA. I'm talented at spotting nice big underdogs. I hit countless underdogs over +300 and +400 in NBA and MLB these past seasons, and have hit a lot of huge ones this NFL season. The Giants were the only straight NFL play I made today at +190. All the other plays I only took the spread. The Bears were a +300 dog on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago, and I was having an argument with Nunya at the time, too, and gave out my Bears +300 play in that thread, hours before the game. I'm sure no one listened to me and played them, but I sure made a lot of money that night. (Also, no one gave me props for hitting such a big dog, either. I feel like most people here don't like to see others doing well.)Comment -
I'm copying and pasting these from somewhere else I posted. They're my NFL parlays/teasers from the last week of November...
7 teams, $71 to win $840
Jets -455
Bengals -345
Panthers -174
Titans -192
Falcons -475
Raiders -220
Patriots (-4) -107
5 team, 5 1/2 pt teaser. $100 to win $475
Bengals -1.5
Panthers +2
Titans +2.5
Falcons -4
Patriots +2
4 team parlay, $45 to win $93
Cowboys -320
Jets -455
Panthers -174
Falcons -475
I cashed all those, then lost these next ones because the Saints beat the Giants by 3398749837 points...
$50 to win $75
Football - 103 Green Bay Packers +7½ for Game
Football - 106 Dallas Cowboys +7 for Game
Football - 107 San Francisco 49ers +17½ for Game
Football - 218 New York JETS +6 for Game
Football - 220 Cincinnati Bengals +6½ for Game
Football - 223 Carolina Panthers +10 for Game
Football - 228 Atlanta Falcons +4 for Game
Football - 239 New York GIANTS +21 for Game
$45 to win $315
Football - 218 New York JETS -3½ for Game
Football - 220 Cincinnati Bengals -1 for Game
Football - 223 Carolina Panthers +2½ for Game
Football - 226 Tennessee Titans +3 for Game
Football - 233 New England Patriots +2½ for Game
Football - 239 New York GIANTS +13½ for Game
couple parlays:
$35 to win $313
Football - 230 Oakland Raiders -152 for Game
Football - 233 New England Patriots -160 for Game
Football - 235 Denver Broncos +5 -107 for Game
Football - 239 New York GIANTS +7½ -107 for Game
$55 to win $522
Football - 230 Oakland Raiders -152 for Game
Football - 233 New England Patriots -160 for Game
Football - 239 New York GIANTS +290 for Game
They couldn't even cover the +21...smh... Giants screwed me that week, and the 9ers screwed me this week.Comment -
Forgot you were a PPH. Can't imagine giving you a credit account.
Interesting bet sizes, small, small, small, then you get stuck, then you wager a little bigger. It'd be interesting to see the weeks where your next level bets went bad.
How long have you been with your local?Comment -
Hitting a pick doesn't make the wager correct. Lots of people get lucky lots of times.
From a slightly smarter man than myself:
"I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let's
assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask
them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise,
and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they
win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop
out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous
winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there
will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have
correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little
over $1,000.
Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about
this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but
at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive
members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what
marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.
Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from
the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have
successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by
this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1
million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have
been won.
By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably
write books on "How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days
Working Thirty Seconds a Morning." Worse yet, they'll probably start
jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-
flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, " If it can't be
done, why are there 215 of us?"
By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough
to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a
similar exercise, the results would be much the same - 215
egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips"
-warren buffetComment -
why is our MMA contest being cluttered with all this bullshit?Comment -
A few months with this new book.
I didn't lose those bets then make a bigger bet. All of those bets were pending NFL bets already placed. I never lost and started chasing. I was winning all day, the only reason some of those lost is because the 49ers didn't cover. I didn't lose small bets and started chasing lol those small bets were parlays that would have had a big return.
I don't understand this. Not sure I need advice, though. The only mistake I make is including the same team in all my parlays. Sometimes one loses and screws it all up. Thankfully, I didn't include the 49ers in all of them this week, so I still came up +
Are you seriously comparing my solid picking for three years after countless hours of studying games/fights to landing 10 coin-flips in a row? I seriously can't believe you just made that comparison. I don't randomly pick games. A lot of thought goes behind my picks. So you're right, hitting a pick doesn't make a wager correct, but you can't say someone who is consistent for three years is making incorrect or lucky wagers.Comment -
You were responding IMMEDIATELY, until I posted the log you were asking for, which you were sure didn't exist. Then you disappeared.
I'm with you. Enough of this shit. Feel free to hate on me in the privacy of your own homes and heads, but keep it off this forum. Don't need the negative energy and waste.Comment -
Please tell me what factors you look into when capping NFL. Does your model spit out a line or a spread? What percentages of games do you find that your true line is significantly off-market? What do you think accounts for your ability to beat the market that people with greater resources are unable to, especially given 10 cent juice?Comment -
I didn't understand the first two questions, so I'll attempt to answer the third: I don't know. I could say I've just been lucky for three years, but that would be wrong. I believe it's a talent. A combination of gut and mind. I'd say it's been 75% talent and 25% luck. I know how easy it is for things to go bad in a football game, and how lucky I am that I haven't had more losses due to interceptions, penalties, etc. I've had a few this year, but I feel lucky that more games went my way. A lot of 4th quarter comebacks, too.
Different things go into picking different games. First things first, I like to read up on articles about the games, and like to make sure I know who is playing and who isn't. I like to know the weather, which players play better in that weather. Which kicker kicks better in that weather. If it's an indoor or outdoor game, which players perform better indoors or out. How runningbacks do against certain types of defensive lines. How WR's match-up with certain CB's. That, and much, much more. Before all that, a lot of the time I look at a line and just instantly know how it's going to end up. That's what I call a combination of my gut and mind talking to me. After that, I get to work to instill more confidence in the plays. Sometimes, the info I dig up points to the opposing team winning, but I go with my initial gut and win.
Giants were a nice dog for Sunday Night Football and most of the statistics pointed to them winning this game, but that's not what had me sold. My gut telling me that the Cowboys have already blown 2 big 4th quarter leads this season, and Eli Manning has like 5 4th quarter comeback victories this season, so even if the Cowboys are winning, Eli would shine in the 4th. My gut was completely spot on.
I make the decision to pick a game, game by game. I don't use the same exact reasoning for every pick. But the combination of my gut/mind talking to me as soon as I look at the line is most influential to my decision. I just feel like I know if a team is going to win or cover a spread. Sometimes, if they're a favorite, I know they're going to win, but don't know if they will cover, so I just take the ML.
My gut/mind works with me with NFL, NBA, UFC, and MLB but when it comes to NCAA basketball and NCAA football, etc., I don't have that same feeling or confidence when looking at those lines. I feel like more of a nervous pup. I don't get that mind/gut connection. I just make bets that I think are going to win. I feel like a right handed pitcher who broke his arm and his pitching left handed. I wish I could have that same talent with picking other sports, too, but I don't. And I don't know why. It's not like I've been watching NFL all my life. I've only been following it religiously for a few years. Before that, I would only watch the Super Bowl. I also feel like I really have a passion for the NFL, UFC, NBA, and MLB. I'm passionate about certain teams and fighters. I guess I don't really have that with the other sports I bet on. My record betting WNBA is like 2-16. LOL
No, wait, I love hockey, but still don't have that talent/skill when it comes to picking NHL games. Haven't kept record of my NHL bets this season, 'cos I'm not great at it, but it'd be something like 22-38.Last edited by gabe; 12-13-11, 01:03 PM.Comment -
I don't really care and didn't read your response. I just wanted to see you say "I don't understand the first two questions."Comment -
HA- PWNED.
Always a pleasure to shut you up.
Using acronyms I don't know, of course you would expect me to not know what you're talking about. Dumbass. "What 'MODEL' you use to spit out..." wtf... yeah, surprising I don't understand what you're saying.
You said I was lying about my weekly winnings, I proved you wrong, and you couldn't be a man and admit you were wrong. You're a little bitch. You continue to hate. KEEP HATIN', LITTLE BITCH.
You're either 14 or just a sorry excuse for a man.
I was surprised to find out sideloaded was a kid, so I'm going to assume you are, too. Quit talking to me. Take your negative energy back to your 3rd period english class.
(no offense to sideloaded. <3)
PS- I'm certain you read my response word-for-word, more than two times. =)Last edited by gabe; 12-13-11, 02:09 PM.Comment -
you mad?Comment -
I've had a couple of decent laughs at your expense today, so "mad" wouldn't be the word.
If I got mad at a hater for hating, that'd be pretty lame of me.
How beautiful it is to shut you up. You said I was lying and didn't make that much, I showed you proof. You said that doesn't prove I made that this week, I showed you proof. And that shut you up. No "OK, I was wrong," no nothing, just a complete shut-up. So beautiful.
Wasn't the first time I've shut you up, but probably the best.
I can't pwn you and be mad about it. I feel happy about it.Comment -
I thought this contest was going to settle the score between you two?!Comment -
I think that is wise, gabe...just ignore him..for the record, I have no qualms with you or him..just want to keep the riff raff out of our contest threadComment
