Jake Shields vs St. Pierre

[flyingillini]

I am going big on Jake. He will beat down GSP in Toronto..... Going to lay a few K on him. We are friends with Jake, he is gonna get this done.... GO JAKE!

[urge2kill]

If by beat down you mean dry hump his way to a decision, it ain't gonna work against GSP.

[VictorRoll]

I really want to put some money down on Shields, but I'm torn. How I see it:

GSP is fighting in front of his home crowd. He won't put himself in risk.
GSP is the WW champ. Hard to lose a decision from the judges if he fights an active fight, which is all he seems to need to do (sometimes).
GSP is great at scrambling. Shields may get him down, but I doubt it.
GSP won't stay on the bottom if he is taken down. And we all know judges favor active, top position fighters.
Shields' standup is horrible. GSP, if he wants, can keep this standing. It's rare GSP fights where he doesn't want to.
The only way GSP can lose is if he's submitted. Shields can't KO/TKO him. Shields won't tire him by outworking him.
Shields is masterful in his transitions. GSP knows this, so he won't spend too much time fighting to better his position if he finds himself in Shields' guard. He'll be content to rain down punches from there.
For all his talk about hoping to finish fights for his fans, GSP's legacy is more important to him. He'll fight a safe, dominant fight.
Let's also add: GSP fought a superior grappler in BJ and controlled him pretty well, avoiding submissions and bad positions. I see him fighting Shields the same way: up against the cage, tired him out, score some points via dirty boxing, and if and when it goes down ... see above.

..sigh.. Which sucks, because the payday on Shields would be amazing.

[Varker]

I got GSP destroying Shields.

[phillybadboy]

when is it goin down?

[urge2kill]

Not until April 30th.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

BookMaker

GSP -550
Shields +400

can't balme anyone taking a good fighter as an underdog in MMA, but i'd advise against putting big money on Shields in this case. GSP is way to smart and strong in all areas.

Other fighters like Penn/Alves/Hardy/Koscheck atleast had a punchers chance, Shileds has little to no chance to KO GSP. It's far less likely Shileds can even get GSP in a position to be able to sub him.

[Jordan23]

Not only is Shields not going to win but he is going to get finished.

[jin2daj]

wow only smart money is shields with -550 on gsp. shields or nothign.


nothing for me.

[sideloaded]

At +400 there is a lot of value in Shields. Remember GSP has never faced a wrestler grappler as good as shields since probably Matt Hughes. It could cause him some major problems. GSP is great on top but what about if he's on the bottom?

[VictorRoll]

At +400 there is a lot of value in Shields. Remember GSP has never faced a wrestler grappler as good as shields since probably Matt Hughes. It could cause him some major problems. GSP is great on top but what about if he's on the bottom?

Not gonna happen. GSP has faced wrestlers - who have a hard time taking him down. In the few times he has found himself on the bottom (VERY few), his timing for reversing position is nothing short of amazing; so he won't be staying there for long.

Fitch is a great wrestler. Koscheck is a great wrestler. BJ is great on the ground...

None really posed a threat.

Sorry, man. This fight isn't one gamble on... Just my opinion, of course.

[Vaughany]

Not gonna happen. GSP has faced wrestlers - who have a hard time taking him down. In the few times he has found himself on the bottom (VERY few), his timing for reversing position is nothing short of amazing; so he won't be staying there for long.

Fitch is a great wrestler. Koscheck is a great wrestler. BJ is great on the ground...

None really posed a threat.

Sorry, man. This fight isn't one gamble on... Just my opinion, of course.

Yeah, although Fitch and Koscheck might not be as good grapplers as Shields, they lower that margin by having superior cardio. Shields' cardio was terrible in the Kampmann fight, yes he had a bad cut (cut like 20lbs in 48hrs or something silly) so will undoubtedly be better prepared for GSP but nonetheless I cant see him suddenly going to the other extreme and having great cardio against GSP especially in a 5 round fight. GSP has a pretty big advantage in the stand-up and as was said above at least Koscheck had a punchers chance of rocking GSP like Serra did because of his looping overhand right and he didnt even get close. GSP by decision at +120 is the play for me, but I wouldnt rule out a TKO in round 4 or 5 either. I honestly dont see how Shields takes this.

[Poppa Catfish]

They lower the margin even further with having decent enough stand up to threaten GSP. GSP doesn't even have to respect that element from Shields, he just has to read and react to any shots.

GSP doesn't even need to show anything new (although he certainly could which would be even more trouble for Shields), all he has to do is use that killer jab that he has developed.

Going to be very hard for Shields to even get into range to shoot. Shields is going to be in No Man's Land for the duration of the fight. Shooting telegraphed shots from half the cage distance away isn't going to work either. If he can muscle in and pull guard that would be a start, but I don't know how long he can keep GSP there, and I'm not even sure he can work his way inside to tie GSP up.

[sirchadwick1]

Rashad Evans has trouble getting GSP down... and he can't ever keep him down. I know it's hard to compare Shields to Evans b/c their styles are so different... but I don't see Shields getting in on GSP and I sure as hell don't see him getting him down. All Georges has to do is stay light on his feet and work his karate and jab and he's going to win on points... or get the TKO. I actually like him to get the TKO here and will probably go in on that prop. He's due. I have a gut feeling this fight is going to look eerily similar to the Sam Stout/Joe Lauzon fight but with a better ending.

[BIGDAY]

I am going big on Jake. He will beat down GSP in Toronto..... Going to lay a few K on him. We are friends with Jake, he is gonna get this done.... GO JAKE!

I love this matchup!!! Can't wait for this fight. Yes GSP has faught wrestlers before. Shields grappling is above Kos, Hughes, and Fitch IMO. He will have some size over GSP which GSP usually has in his favor.

I personally hope GSP doesn't wait three rounds to tire Shields out, but probably is his best gameplan. I hope he goes out and engages in stead of the jab show again. (Granted it was a real good jab show!)

Shields is capable of a victory and I will most likely throw some $ his way, but his cardio is the honest truth whether his line will have value or not.

[BIGDAY]

Yeah, although Fitch and Koscheck might not be as good grapplers as Shields, they lower that margin by having superior cardio. Shields' cardio was terrible in the Kampmann fight, yes he had a bad cut (cut like 20lbs in 48hrs or something silly) so will undoubtedly be better prepared for GSP but nonetheless I cant see him suddenly going to the other extreme and having great cardio against GSP especially in a 5 round fight. GSP has a pretty big advantage in the stand-up and as was said above at least Koscheck had a punchers chance of rocking GSP like Serra did because of his looping overhand right and he didnt even get close. GSP by decision at +120 is the play for me, but I wouldnt rule out a TKO in round 4 or 5 either. I honestly dont see how Shields takes this.

Hey Vaughany,
Does your kick ars book have per round props? I honestly think that Shields will try to win this fight early and he should be very active in the first two rounds. Something to look at as I know you look at a ton of prop bets.

[xelance]

you guys are joking right? Shields has no chance in this fight, gsp will stuff his takedowns and jab him to death

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany,
Does your kick ars book have per round props? I honestly think that Shields will try to win this fight early and he should be very active in the first two rounds. Something to look at as I know you look at a ton of prop bets.

Shields to win in Rnd 1 is +1600 and to win in Rnd2 +1800, but 5dimes/Sportbet actually have had better odds for round props recently. Im more

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany,
Does your kick ars book have per round props? I honestly think that Shields will try to win this fight early and he should be very active in the first two rounds. Something to look at as I know you look at a ton of prop bets.

Shields to win in Rnd 1 is +1600 and to win in Rnd2 +1800, but 5dimes/Sportbet actually have had better odds for round props recently.

[omalley21]

GSP will fight another title fight against bad competition. He will win another painfully boring decision. He will be greased to the gills. He will jab and run and not finish another easy opponent. And canadians will act like its the greatest thing ever. I dont even wanna watch this fight.

[Vaughany]

GSP will fight another title fight against bad competition. He will win another painfully boring decision. He will be greased to the gills. He will jab and run and not finish another easy opponent. And canadians will act like its the greatest thing ever. I dont even wanna watch this fight.

Ur a big GSP fan then?

[Pabinator]

GSP is on another level, besides no way Strikeforces best can compete with UFCs best

[Vaughany]

GSP is on another level, besides no way Strikeforces best can compete with UFCs best

haha ***In before Tracey and PridehatesUFC flame on you and say that you suck DW's balls!***

[nobull]

lol! how many seconds into the 1st round will jake shields go down? I say 20...........what say you?

[playa420]

jake is gonna get smashed bad, he cant hang with gsp on the feet and hes not gonna be able to get george down and smother him.

[VictorRoll]

Shields to win in Rnd 1 is +1600 and to win in Rnd2 +1800, but 5dimes/Sportbet actually have had better odds for round props recently.

Actually, this sounds pretty good. History has shown GSP likes to establish the game mentally in his opponents, then flip to dominate. For example, in the Kos fight: He shot for a takedown to get Kos thinking about it and looking for it, then proceeded to light him up on the feet which was the plan all along.

I expect GSP will shoot early again to 1.) show no fear, 2.) keep Shields guessing and 3.) keep Shields' hands low to guard against the takedown. But GSP will then keep it standing and pick him apart and try for the KO/TKO. Now, if ever there's a chance for Shields to win, it will be in Round 1 while he's still fresh and GSP's not slick with "sweat." So Shields might be able to nab a guillotine here. Lord knows, GSP isn't going to keep it down if he takes him down. He'll do it for points, pound a little, then get the hell outta there.

[BIGDAY]

Actually, this sounds pretty good. History has shown GSP likes to establish the game mentally in his opponents, then flip to dominate. For example, in the Kos fight: He shot for a takedown to get Kos thinking about it and looking for it, then proceeded to light him up on the feet which was the plan all along.

I expect GSP will shoot early again to 1.) show no fear, 2.) keep Shields guessing and 3.) keep Shields' hands low to guard against the takedown. But GSP will then keep it standing and pick him apart and try for the KO/TKO. Now, if ever there's a chance for Shields to win, it will be in Round 1 while he's still fresh and GSP's not slick with "sweat." So Shields might be able to nab a guillotine here. Lord knows, GSP isn't going to keep it down if he takes him down. He'll do it for points, pound a little, then get the hell outta there.

That's is exactly why I mentioned it. It's been a while since GSP has looked to end the fight early. He has great cardio and moves good in the cage. I'm simply trying to find value and this is one area that needs to be looked at. Best of luck!

[Kaladarus]

Jake will need a shield if he doesn't want his face to get smashed up like Koschecks. GSP is like the biggest lock ever for this fight. Shields has nothing for him with no finishing power anywhere and mediocre submissions.

[urge2kill]

I'll never forget how big a lock GSP was vs Serra

[BIGDAY]

I'll never forget how big a lock GSP was vs Serra

Exactly!

[snake11eyes]

Do we even need a thread for this fight. Shields has no value straight up or props and gsp is priced to high. This fight should be a no play for everyone. Just sit back and watch this one.

[Varker]

no way Shields beats GSP.

[bracerman]

Only way Shields wins is if GSP seriously injures himself during the fight.

[99Boxster]

I'll never forget how big a lock GSP was vs Serra

I have a close friend that lost $1.2 dimes on bodog on that

[RaiderNation MMA]

please dont bet on jake for anything other than moral support. i kno he could pull a matt serra blah blah blah, 95% chance he doesnt. he cant win this fight anywhere. and based on his last performance u cant be confident puttn money on him