This fight, a rematch of their WEC 42 bout (only this time with a title on the line), is one that I've had my eye on for a long time. Not only did I bet Benavidez straight up (I got him earlier @ +220, since I expected the line to move against him), but I've included him in a few parlays because I think there is still incredible value in this line. After adjusting for the vig, the current odds give Cruz a 68.9% chance of winning and Benavidez a 31.1% chance of winning. Because of the juice, Benavidez would have to win more than 32.3% of the time for this play to have value.
This is a soft line. I think Benavidez should win this fight well over one-third of the time. The first fight was actually very close, and about a minute before it went to decision the commentators were saying that it could go either way. Cruz was slightly ahead, it must be admitted, and he also closed out the fight in a dominant position. But the first fight was one between two almost equally-matched competitors, and it was hardly the sort of blowout one might have expected given the current odds.
Surprisingly enough, what sealed the decision for Cruz in their first fight were his takedowns. This is surprising because there is no question that Benavidez is the more experienced wrestler and should have the advantage in that area, at least on paper. He's not a stellar wrestler, but he is very good. Wrestling is his base and he is a former New Mexico State Wrestling Champion. Cruz' base, on the other hand, is his boxing. Why, then, did he score a few takedowns in their first fight? Benavidez was too keen to keep the fight standing. His gameplan clearly did not involve wrestling, and when Cruz -- the boxer -- did take him down it came as a big surprise. He simply hadn't been expecting it.
The good news for Benavidez backers is that he admitted as much in recent interviews, stating that he forgot about wrestling entirely in their first match and that he knows he'll have to use it as one of his weapons in the rematch. At the very least, I think he will be ready for any takedown attempts by Cruz, and at best he'll be able to take Cruz down (although that is a very difficult task). I expect Benavidez to close the distance to overcome the reach advantage, employ a Randy Couture-style gameplan of dirty boxing against the cage, and work for some takedowns. This, in turn, will have an effect on Cruz' standup. He won't be able to be as loose with his striking as he was in the first fight, because he'll have to worry more about the fight going to the ground.
As for the standup, Cruz has the better boxing technique and is known for his outstanding footwork. But Benavidez has far more power, and it's power that he demonstrated in his last two fights. In addition, Benavidez seems to have a granite chin and I think his main concern would be getting outpointed on the feet, not getting KO'd or TKO'd. In the first fight Benavidez was effective in closing the distance when he chose to. Cruz is generally thought to be the faster fighter due to his footwork, but Benavidez is a short and speedy fighter himself. He has learned to move forward very quickly to close the distance on his opponents, and Cruz hasn't shown either the power of counter-punching ability to prevent that.
In the jiu-jitsu game, there can be little doubt that Benavidez has the edge. He has a mean guillotine choke (it seems to be the trademark of Team Alpha Male fighters) and has won seven of twelve fights by submission. By contrast, Cruz has only won by submission twice in his sixteen fights. He was also submitted -- by guillotine choke -- by Benavidez' friend and training partner Urijah Faber.
Who has improved more since their close fight almost exactly one year ago? It's hard to say, but Benavidez has certainly had the more impressive victories since then. Cruz upset Brian Bowles to win the WEC Bantamweight title, but Bowles broke his right hand with the first punch he threw in that fight, and I really think it's hard to draw any serious conclusions under those circumstances. Yes, Cruz had great footwork and easily picked Bowles apart on the feet, but Bowles' main weapon was gone after one punch and his heart wasn't really in it after that. Benavidez, on the other hand, has rebounded to defeat two fighters who were ranked in the top 5 in the division -- first by knocking out jiu-jitsu whiz Rani Yahya, and then by absolutely dominating a man once thought by some to be the pound-for-pound king: Miguel Torres. His performance against Torres was especially frightening -- he hurt him badly on the feet and then submitted the jiu-jitsu blackbelt on the ground, something nobody had every managed to accomplish against Torres in 40 fights.
Benavidez trains out of Team Alpha Male with the likes of Danny Castillo, Chad Mendes, and of course Urijah Faber. Cruz, who trains with Alliance MMA, also has a good camp but the other top fighters in his camp are all a few weight classes above: Brandon Vera and Phil Davis are at light-heavyweight, Joey Beltran is a heavyweight... unlike Castillo, Mendes and Faber, the smaller fighters who train out of Cruz' gym are not really close to the level that he would need to prepare for a fight of this magnitude. He's been training extensively with Orlando Jimenez because Jimenez is an outstanding wrestler with the same build as Benavidez, but Jimenez is not an MMA fighter and cannot really prepare him for the kind of pace and intensity that Benavidez brings.
In recent interviews, Benavidez has shown tremendous confidence in his chances this time around, and from the way he says it, I think that he really believes it. Benavidez is mentally strong, he puts the work in and fights his heart out every fight. He had absolutely no hesitation when going up against a legend in Miguel Torres, and I expect him to take the fight to Cruz here. Perhaps Cruz is the rightful favorite, but in no way should he be favored by as much as the current line suggests. This is a five-round fight that only one fighter has a good chance to stop inside the distance, and that is Benavidez via superior power and/or superior grappling. I also think there is excellent value in Benavides to win inside the distance @+432, and I would recommend that if you have 5dimes.
