It bothers me to place a bet on Matt Hughes because the man is an egomaniac and a jerk, to put it mildly. That's why I chose the most embarrassing picture of him I could find. Having said that, I think he's a being undervalued here and that the odds should be closer to EV. I think the current odds are a reflection of his underwhelming performances in his latest fights. Stylistically I think he matches up well against jiu-jitsu specialists. However, there are some interesting props here that appear more lucrative than simply betting Hughes to win.
There's no doubt that Hughes, who is 3-3 in his last six fights, has seen better days. Around four years, just before losing the title to GSP, he was 19-1 in his last twenty fights. That's a phenomenal record, and it is not without reason that he is regarded by many as the greatest welterweight in UFC history (I personally believe GSP has finally surpassed him for this accolade, but that's not relevant to this blog). He is in the twilight of his career and will not be making another title run. At thirty-six, this will be his 52nd fight. Almeida is just three years younger, but there is a salient difference in experience: Almeida has only had 15 fights. His jiu-jitsu is world-class, but in MMA he has yet to live up to the hype that used to surround him. 12-3 is not a bad record, and it includes a submission win over Nate Marquardt, but at least on paper, his MMA credentials cannot compare with the successes of Hughes.
For Almeida to win, he'll have to finish the fight. And that means he'll have to win by submission. Almeida has never won by KO/TKO, does not have heavy hands and is competent at best as a standup fighter. And he probably will not win a decision. Nobody wins a decision against Matt Hughes. Hughes' record in fights that went to decision is 10-0. That's right: in over 50 fights, Hughes has never lost a decision. Add to this the very powerful trend that when a wrestler and jiu-jitsu specialist go to decision, the wrestler wins the vast majority of them. Judges reward top position; it's as simple as that. For Hughes to win, he'll have to win a decision. Almeida has only been finished once in his career. The type of fighter who can finish him would have to be very dangerous on the feet, and Hughes is not that fighter. Hughes' last fight, against Renzo Gracie, was actually the first time he stopped a fighter with strikes on the feet, and it will probably be the last. Gracie was completely gassed by the start of the second round, and he really had no business being in the cage to begin with.
Hughes will not stop Almeida on the ground either; that should be a foregone conclusion. Almeida is simply too good from his back to be finished by Hughes' trademark ground and pound. His jiu-jitsu is phenomenal and a few notches above that of Hughes, whose jiu-jitsu is no joke either. Almeida could lose a decision from being taken down and controlled, but he will not be stopped within three rounds on the feet or on the ground.
So the first suggestion I have is a straddle: Almeida wins inside the distance (+245) and Hughes wins by 3 round decision (+243). These lines are available on 5dimes. As the Kelly Calculator shows, as long as these outcomes have a combined chance of over 58%, this straddle is profitable. I honestly believe the combined chances are significantly higher, making this a +EV straddle. Even if the likelihood is 66% (two out of three), which is a reasonable and conservative estimate in my opinion, Kelly would suggest we bet a total of 10% of our bankroll on these two outcomes.
My second suggestion is that if you like Almeida, you'd be crazy to lay the juice when you can get him at +245 inside the distance. It is extremely unlikely that a jiu-jitsu fighter would be the first to defeat Hughes by decision. And it follows, too, that if you like Hughes you should just bet him to win by 3 round decision at +243. He will not stop Almeida; I am actually far more certain of this than I am of Almeida not winning a decision, but I'm very comfortable with both of these bets.
I personally will not bet the straddle, as I think the best value here is actually on Hughes by decision (+243). I think Hughes wins this matchup by decision around 40% of the time, which offers significantly better expected value than the straddle. Hughes is a very intelligent fighter and it is easier for him to create a gameplan because, as the superior wrestler, he'll get to decide where the fight goes. I see him keeping it on the feet for the first half of each round, where he should have a small advantage, and then throwing in some takedowns and voluntarily standing up (i.e., using the takedowns just to score points) in the latter half of the rounds. Each takedown entails some degree of danger, of course, but Hughes' jiu-jitsu defense is quite good and I think he'll last long enough to either stall until the ref stands them up, or until he has an opportunity to stand up himself. He will not do any serious damage with the takedowns but he will not need to. All he'll need to do is score one or two each round and he'll secure the decision.
So while I think betting Hughes by decision and Almeida inside the distance is a very safe straddle, I think there's more value here in just betting Hughes by decision. Not that this is the most expected outcome in the fight, but it should happen more than the +243 odds would indicate. Best of luck!
