With all due respect to Tito Ortiz, this line is a joke. I'm entirely serious when I say Matt Hammill should be around -400. No offense, Tito. Actually on second thought, offense.
Whether you love or hate him (or better yet, haven't cared about him in ages), Tito Ortiz has not been relevant in years. The last time he beat an opponent not named Ken Shamrock was by razor-thin split decision to Forrest Griffin, back in April of 2006. In case you didn't get the memo, Ken Shamrock should have retired approximately one decade ago.
I honestly don't know what Ortiz is still doing in the UFC. Why did Dana White bring him back? He is not UFC caliber anymore. He is not an intelligent man, to put it nicely, and has not evolved as a fighter (beyond improving his cardio) since his original UFC appearances. It's not age catching up with him. He's about as good as he's always been. It's just that he was never really that good, and the evolution of MMA passed him by years ago. In the early days of the UFC, it was enough to be a better-than-average wrestler and win via pure ground 'n pound. That is rarely enough anymore. Ortiz is a slightly better than average wrestler with good cardio (though he didn't show it in his last fight), good submission defense, and world-class excuses. That's it. That's all he has to offer.
Matt Hammill may never be a top-5 fighter in the Light Heavyweight division, but he is a difficult fight for anyone. Unlike Tito Ortiz he is intelligent, humble, and his life story is an inspiration to many. But enough of that. The point is that Hammill is twice the wrestler Tito Ortiz could wish to be. And when Tito Ortiz cannot get his opponent to the mat, he loses. This is worth repeating: when Tito Ortiz faces a superior wrestler, he loses. He has no plan B, no secret weapon, no answer. Zip. Nada. He just loses.
Look at what happened against Randy Couture. Tito Ortiz, who was inexplicably the favorite going into that fight, was outwrestled and dominated and literally spanked. Look what happened against Chuck Liddell both times. Chuck Liddell is a superior wrestler, he just uses his wrestling defensively. Look what happened against Lyoto Machida, whom he could not take down. Obviously, there's no shame in losing to guys like Couture, Liddell and Machida. And yes, it would be wrong to include Hammill up there with those names. But Matt Hammill is stylistically a nightmare matchup for Ortiz, and to me it indicates that the UFC is wisely using Tito's name recognition to build up other fighters at his expense. Hammill's inspirational story (they just filmed a movie about his life) as well as his popularity from the Ultimate Fighter make him an ideal opponent to profit from this.
Hammill is one of the best wrestlers in his division. He is a three-time Division III National Champion. At the Deaflympics, he is a silver-medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling and a gold-medalist in freestyle wrestling. On the Ultimate Fighter he showed how he can stuff takedowns with no hands. Mark Munoz was unable to take him down in their (admittedly short) fight, and I have already written a blog detailing Munoz' elite wrestling pedigree. Munoz was supposed to have a decided wrestling advantage in that fight, but it didn't show. Tito Ortiz will not be able to take Matt Hammill down. And if by some fluke he manages to do so, he will not be able to keep him there for very long. Hammill's strength is often noted and he is the much stronger fighter here. Ortiz hasn't changed his training methods in years, he hasn't shown us anything new in years, and it will be the same-old same-old this time.
Matt Hammill has two clear roads to victory. If he is able to take Tito Ortiz down without exerting too much energy in his attempts, the fight will be decided from those takedowns alone (a la Couture-Ortiz). However, I don't think he will look to take this fight to the ground. Hammill has been a little too content with his standup over the years, but in this case he has every right and reason to believe that his standup is superior. This not because of his technique as much as his serious power in both his hands and feet, something Ortiz lacks. Hammill also has an excellent chin. He is going to stuff Ortiz' takedown attempts and hurt him on the feet. He'll also hurt him with uppercuts from the clinch, as his dirty boxing is very good. If he's smart, he'll throw in one or two takedowns after he has Ortiz hurt. Ortiz will have no answers. He might be able to survive, but that will be his main accomplishment.
I think there's a good chance the fight goes to decision, since Ortiz is difficult to finish, but if it does rest assured that Hammill will have his hands raised at the end. Hammill by TKO is a very real possibility as well. Hammill is superior in every area of the game. Perhaps their jiu-jitsu is a wash, but it shouldn't play a factor anyway. Hamill has the distinct advantage in wrestling and on the feet. He is 8-2 in the UFC -- even if you don't count his "win" over Jon Jones, he was infamously robbed of a decision against Bisping. Ortiz is winless in his last four fights.
I think I can tell you exactly how this fight is going to go. Hammill will utterly dominate Ortiz en route to a unanimous decision victory. Then he will give an excited post-fight interview in which it will be a bit hard to understand what he's saying. Then Ortiz will grace us with a brand new litany of excuses, a promise that he'll be back better than ever, and some snyde comment about how proud he is that his "friend" and "student" (from the Ultimate Fighter) is doing so well and how happy he is to have "helped" him get this far. And then, if God is merciful, Tito Ortiz will be cut from the UFC. For good.
Ah yes that proves me wrong! Jardine landed 16 out of 20 leg kicks against Hamill...the only aspect of the fight that Jardine clearly beat Hamill at. Against Forest Griffin, Ortiz land ZERO out of 1 leg strike attempts as opposed to Grffin's 12 out of 15. Against Machida he connected with 2 out of 4 leg strikes.
