Alan Belcher has been making a lot of noise lately. Mostly by blowing his own horn, but it is true that his results have been impressive. Since his loss to Jason Day, he won a close decision against Ed Herman, lost a close decision (which many, myself included, disagreed with) to Akiyama, and finished three very dangerous fighters in Kang, Gouveia, and Cote. He has been all but demanding his title shot, declaring himself the only person not afraid of standing with Anderson Silva. There is little doubt that he would be embarrassed by Anderson Silva, but his striking is at least as good -- and often much better -- than all the "mere mortals" in the Spider's division. There is no doubt that he's a better striker than Maia and would destroy him in a kickboxing match.
But this is not a kickboxing match. An estimated 90% of MMA fights go to the ground at some point, and this one will not be an exception. And when it does go to the ground, it will be finished there. Maybe not right away, but eventually Maia will get the submission.
Belcher has good submission skills. He is fresh off of his submission over Cote at UFC 113, and he also choked out Denis Kang in a fight Kang had been winning handily up until he choked (literally), which is unfortunately his tendency. In addition, he has only been submitted once, and that was against Kendall Grove who is an excellent jiu-jitsu fighter himself. But he has never faced someone as lethal on the ground as Demian Maia.
Maia is regarded by some as the best jiu-jitsu fighter in MMA. He is undoubtedly among the top five: the other four are Roger Gracie (who gets my vote), Fabricio Werdum (who just submitted King Fedor) Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (whom Maia defeated in a jiu-jitsu competition), and Robert Drysdale (who recently made his MMA debut). Shinya Aoki is also phenomenal, of course,but the other five have more impressive pure grappling credentials.
Maia was 6-1 in the UFC before succumbing to Anderson Silva in the debacle that was UFC 112. His wins included submissions over Herman, Quarry, and Sonnen who are all very good wrestlers. Sonnen is one of the best wrestlers in all of MMA, and Maia surprised him with a stunning takedown and an instantaneous transition to a fight-ending triangle choke.
Alan Belcher does not have the takedown defense to stop Maia. He doesn't have great takedown defense to begin with: in every single one of his UFC fights to date, opponents who wanted to take the fight to the ground managed to do so (sometimes with his foolish cooperation, as in his fight against Day) at least once. Belcher strikes me as a bit stubborn and he thinks his grappling is better than it really is. I think he may even want to "prove" that he can hang with Maia on the ground, just as he stated that he wanted to make a statement by submitting Kang rather than winning by TKO.
But even if he's smart enough to try to keep this on the feet, he won't be able to. Maia is very smart about setting up his takedowns, and once he gets the fight to the ground the difference in skill-level will be immediately apparent. Belcher does not have the kind of training partners who can adequately prepare him for someone with Maia's world class grappling, regardless of how hard he trains for this fight.
All fights begin standing up, and Belcher's striking is technical and his Muay Thai is very dangerous. But he is not known for one-punch knockout power; he hurts his opponents by the accumulation of strikes instead. Thus, there is not as much danger here as there was with Marquardt when he blasted Maia in 21 seconds. Belcher may land a couple of strikes, but if he's also worried about the takedown it will affect his stance and consequently his power.
In my opinion this fight is no different from the other 90% of fights that go to the ground at some point. And in any round, when this fight hits the ground Maia will either submit Belcher or do more than enough to win the round. I see Maia by submission in round two. Getting Maia @-165 is a steal; stylistically this is a perfect matchup for him to once again showcase his wizardry on the ground.
