Mark Munoz is currently +175 at Bookmaker. There is terrific value on this bet. I believe Munoz is actually the slight favorite here.
Okami is the most successful Japanese fighter in UFC history. While stars such as Aoki, Gomi, and Akiyama have had disappointing results when fighting in the United States, Okami has steadily built up an impressive 8-2 record in the UFC. Still, despite his success, he has failed to build up a significant American fan base because of what most fans consider a dry fighting style. He's a grinder. Okami is known for good wrestling and excellent ground and pound. He is much stronger than almost all the other middleweights, and he makes good use of this in the clinch. He sucks the wind out of his opponents and wins many decisions by wearing his opponents out. Five out of his last seven fights have gone to decision. His standup is decent but not too dangerous; overall he's not a versatile fighter but he's a grinder and is very good at what he does. He out-muscles and out-wrestles his opponents, and very few people are able to stop him.
Stylistically he has been a difficult matchup for jiu-jitsu specialists (his top control is extremely solid and his submission defense it too good) and strikers (who are sooner or later dumped on their back). In the last five years he lost only three times. One was to future hall of famer Rich Franklin. The other two losses came against superior wrestlers: Jake Shields and Chael Sonnen. In fact, those are the only two fighters he ever faced who had superior wrestling, and both times it was the wrestling that proved to be his Kryptonite. As is the case this time, Okami was the favorite in his recent fight against Sonnen, but there too I felt he was at a stylistic disadvantage. Sure enough, he had no answer for repeatedly getting taken down and controlled. Sonnen is definitely not stronger than Okami, but his wrestling is on another level. Okami needs to stay standing or in top position in order to win fights; he is hardly a submission specialist from his back. Unfortunately for him, Munoz is another outstanding wrestler and Okami is going to have exactly same problem here as he did in that fight.
Munoz is not just a better wrestler, he is a much better wrestler -- a Division I National Champion and in my opinion one of top five wrestlers in all of MMA. Okami is a good wrestler but lacked (and still lacks) access to the same level of training in this discipline. Japan is not known for its wrestling prowess; the elite American wrestlers have more rigorous training and much higher credentials simply because the amateur wrestling tradition is entrenched in the United States much more than in Japan. And this fight will come down to wrestling. Okami will not be able to stay off his back for very long.
Munoz has looked very impressive in his last two fights. It's true that he was in early trouble against Kendall Grove, but he showed a great chin and an indomitable will to win. He is training out of BlackHouse with some of the very best fighters in the world such as Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, the Nogueira brothers, Junior dos Santos... you get the idea. It is rumored that he has been training extensively with Silva lately, in preparation for Silva's title defense against Sonnen. Okami does not have one punch knockout power and I'm not very worried about the standup. Munoz packs a more powerful punch. Okami does have more technical standup, but it should not matter because it will only be a matter of time before he gets taken down.
In a recent interview Okami said that he envisions this fight as a stand-up fight which will end with him knocking Munoz down and pounding him out. He acknowledged that he would have to work on his takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He had the exact same plan against Sonnen. He must have had the same plan against Shields. It's one thing to know what needs to be done, another thing entirely to execute it. Fighters like Sonnen and Munoz are the elite of the elite when it comes to wrestling in MMA. Okami is not. It would take Okami more than a two or three month training camp to be able to negate that level of wrestling.
Stylistically, this matchup favors Munoz. I think that the line is where it is because of Okami's record and experience, while Munoz is much newer to the sport and there are still some unknowns regarding his composure against the elite (Okami is the first elite fighter he's faced). But Munoz appears to be a mentally strong fighter, as his fight with Grove showed us. In that fight, his latest, Munoz overcame adversity and won in spectacular fashion (also winning Fight of the Night). I don't think he will be intimidated here. He is on a three fight winning streak and has a lot of momentum going for him right now. This, together with his strong work-ethic and his elite training partners, should give him a lot of confidence coming into this fight.
I would also look at props: Okami is durable and very difficult to finish. At the same time, with his wrestling nullified, he has no real tools to finish Munoz, who is gritty and hard to finish himself. So this fight has a very high chance of going the distance; if you can get that prop at -125 or better, I would take it.
Good luck!
