Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[PunisherIND]

In terms of the FOTN bonus, we see the biggest concentration of winners around the main event and main card with a near one-to-one correlation of bout position (1 is the main event, 2 is the co-main, etc.) and the number of times a fighter in that space has won that specific bonus. Here is how the numbers shake out:


Courtest mmafighting

thanks beelze

[Beelzebubzy]

Go to thier site
it was a huge article but it broke down each award

[Grabaka]

Good stuff bubz

[bogbat]

Che Mills' first blog leading up to Ludwig fight...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48eA0lxhkVc&feature=player_embedded

Looking solid.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

WHat ya make of this thread Nunya???... http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-chek-out.html

[Vaughany]

[BIGDAY]

F'in Bisping

[gabe]

With all the 5 figure parlays you win surely you wouldnt need Bigday to cover everything!?

i've never won a 5 figure parlay. i've had 5 figure nights. i don't risk too much on big parlays, so i've never hit more than low 4 figs. hard not to have a 5 figure night when you go 9-0 though... but yeah, regardless, that's a stupid thing to say. i'm not a rich boy like you who saves up all his money and goes on vacation every two months. for me- every dollar that comes in, goes out. you support only yourself, i support my folks.

[Vaughany]

i've never won a 5 figure parlay. i've had 5 figure nights. i don't risk too much on big parlays, so i've never hit more than low 4 figs. hard not to have a 5 figure night when you go 9-0 though... but yeah, regardless, that's a stupid thing to say. i'm not a rich boy like you who saves up all his money and goes on vacation every two months. for me- every dollar that comes in, goes out. you support only yourself, i support my folks.

ha I wish I was on vacation every two months

[sideloaded]

i've never won a 5 figure parlay. i've had 5 figure nights. i don't risk too much on big parlays, so i've never hit more than low 4 figs. hard not to have a 5 figure night when you go 9-0 though... but yeah, regardless, that's a stupid thing to say. i'm not a rich boy like you who saves up all his money and goes on vacation every two months. for me- every dollar that comes in, goes out. you support only yourself, i support my folks.

gabe is this true? You pay your parents bills with your comedy career? If so well done to you.

[Vaughany]

Bangin new tune from Arianny Celeste!...http://www.beatport.com/release/top-of-the-world/963511

http://www.beatport.com/release/top-of-the-world/963511

[DeFactoCrippler]

gabe is this true? You pay your parents bills with your comedy career? If so well done to you.

Brah, this is morning shift gabe. Sometimes they get their shit crossed up.

[sideloaded]

I'm confused too. Is a Gabe a comedy fan or comedian? Because he sure is hell isn’t paying his parents bills gambling.

[Vaughany]

You're forgetting is other business boys

[Vaughany]

Nate Marquardt on Bryan Callen podcast... http://manthoughts.com/2012/09/05/ep...ate-marquardt/

[Vaughany]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SlSEU4hHWs

[Vaughany]

Columbus Crew PK tonight boys

[everythingred]

tailing

[Vaughany]

Columbus are in great form and Federico Higuain is proving to be the best marquee player in the league at moment. New England meanwhile are in poor form and haven't won at home in 10 games. Columbus have a great away record at Gillette stadium as well (unbeaten in last 5 I believe). Add the fact that Rev's top scorer Sene is out for rest of season and the next best striker Bengtson along with Nyassi are also out..I'd be shocked if Columbus dont get at least a draw tonight. Talk of Columbus being fatigued from the heavy schedule but New England haven't exactly had it easy with 4 games in last two weeks. New England do have a young but albeit inexperienced squad so may deal with fatigue better but still dont see it being a big enough difference. Columbus also have players like Williams and James who are coming back from suspension so will be rested.

[Vaughany]

Crew putting out full-strength team...not resting any of their key players... Starting XI: Gruenebaum, Vukovic, O'Rourke, Marshall, Miranda, Duka, Birchall, Mirosevic, Gaven, Higuain, Arrieta.

Feilhaber and Tierney on bench for New England as well which helps.

[Vaughany]

Wow this New England Columbus game is painful to watch...terrible standard so far

[Vaughany]

Playing New England PK live-in-play...Columbus are playing horrible and look totally disinterested while New England are playing with a lot more enthusiasm and energy...if anything I think they'll score again on the counter

[Vaughany]

Playing New England PK live-in-play...Columbus are playing horrible and look totally disinterested while New England are playing with a lot more enthusiasm and energy...if anything I think they'll score again on the counter

And as I thought Columbus just get worst and go and Chad Marshall score's a comedy own-goal lobbing his own keeper!

[Vaughany]

Wow 3 crazy chances in space of 30 seconds for Columbus!

[Vaughany]

lol Chad Marshall has to be one of the worst professional soccer players I've ever seen!

[sideloaded]

damn thats harsh

[face]

vaughany i wonder do you have an opinion on jose aldo -225 vs. frank edgar +185 in a month. do you think the line will move? was thinking of making a play on aldo because, well because i think he kicks ass. but that is ignorant. if you are an edgar fan and really want him to win and can't judge clearly than no need to answer.

[AdamB]

vaughany i wonder do you have an opinion on jose aldo -225 vs. frank edgar +185 in a month. do you think the line will move? was thinking of making a play on aldo because, well because i think he kicks ass. but that is ignorant. if you are an edgar fan and really want him to win and can't judge clearly than no need to answer.

I'm not Vaughany, but as far as I know most people lean Aldo on this one - I've no idea how anyone couldn't see value in Aldo with those odds. I would line shop a bit though, he's currently -200 on PaddyPower which in my experience usually has slightly worse lines than many books.

I also like a Jones/Benavidez/Aldo parlay - £100 returns £221 on Paddy. If both Benavidez and Aldo win, especially if it's in a dominating fashion, I don't think we'll ever see lines this low for them again.

[Vaughany]

TUF "The Smashes" cast:

Guided by Australian coach George Sotiropoulos, Team Australia comprises of:

Lightweights:
Grant Blackler, 23, Sunshine Coast
Patrick Iodice, 19, Gold Coast
Richie Vaculik, 29, Sydney
Ben Wall, 23, Brisbane

Welterweights:
Ben Alloway, 31, Gold Coast
Xavier Lucas, 31, Perth
Manuel Rodriguez, 27, Sydney
Robert Whitaker, 21, Sydney

English coach Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson takes charge of Team UK:

Lightweights:
Colin Fletcher, 29, Sunderland
Norman Parke, 25, Bushmills, Nth Ireland
Michael Pastou, 30, Essex
Mike Wilkinson, 24, Leigh

Welterweights:
Luke Newman, 22, London
Bola Omoyele, 30, London
Valentino Petrescu, 30, Essex
Brad Scott, 23, Melksham


Bola Omoyele is a beast, trains with Pickett at ATT. Should be one of the favourites to win it.

Always liked Norman Parke as well...he's spent time training at Drysdale's...has a slick ground game should be on another level there compared to most of these guys.

Look forward to this...should be some decent banter between the English and Auzzies!

[Vaughany]

I'm not Vaughany, but as far as I know most people lean Aldo on this one - I've no idea how anyone couldn't see value in Aldo with those odds. I would line shop a bit though, he's currently -200 on PaddyPower which in my experience usually has slightly worse lines than many books.

I also like a Jones/Benavidez/Aldo parlay - £100 returns £221 on Paddy. If both Benavidez and Aldo win, especially if it's in a dominating fashion, I don't think we'll ever see lines this low for them again.

Yeah, Frankie's my boiii but I guess this isn't a great match-up stylistically for him. One of Edgar's advantages at being a smaller LW was his speed, but this move down may put an end to that, especially against a guy like Aldo who has superb timing combined with being very quick. Faber was one of the most dynamic FW's and Aldo made him look slow and like he was plodding (obviously this was mainly due to the damage from leg kicks) but the fact that Aldo was able to pick Faber apart like that showed how superior is understanding of distance and timing is. On the flip-side of this, Aldo hasn't faced anybody who is constantly moving and slipping in and out like Edgar does. Everybody he's faced has either been a striker that likes to press forward like Hominick or guys that I like to call "plodders" such as Gamburyan and Mike Brown, and even Faber (to a certain extent) who don't have much footwork and just tend to press forward looking to land power shots (making them easy to counter for a striker with speed and excellent timing like Aldo). Or he's faced opponents that have wanted to push forward and try and use their perceived wrestling and size advantage such as Florian and Mendes. In the past Florian has used an elusive style in some fights such as the Huerta one where he picked him apart for three rounds and tried to use an elusive in-and-out style but failed miserably against BJ Penn, but against Aldo his strategy was to use size advantage and improved wrestling to wear Aldo out against the cage and take him down. Perhaps if he'd ignored that plan and used the strategy he had against Penn we might have a better idea of how well Aldo deals with an opponent who is constantly circling, cutting angles, and moving in and out of range - implementing more of a point-scoring style if you like. Obviously this is all based on the assumption that Edgar will continue to have the same style, but we shouldn't forget that he does have some power when he wants to - did finish Maynard after all and obviously at a smaller weight division this will be more palpable. He might change his style completely for this fight and try and push the pace and grind on Aldo and wear him down so that he can take over with his superior cardio in later rounds.

[AdamB]

Yeah, Frankie's my boiii but I guess this isn't a great match-up stylistically for him. One of Edgar's advantages at being a smaller LW was his speed, but this move down may put an end to that, especially against a guy like Aldo who has superb timing combined with being very quick. Faber was one of the most dynamic FW's and Aldo made him look slow and like he was plodding (obviously this was mainly due to the damage from leg kicks) but the fact that Aldo was able to pick Faber apart like that showed how superior is understanding of distance and timing is. On the flip-side of this, Aldo hasn't faced anybody who is constantly moving and slipping in and out like Edgar does. Everybody he's faced has either been a striker that likes to press forward like Hominick or guys that I like to call "plodders" such as Gamburyan and Mike Brown, and even Faber (to a certain extent) who don't have much footwork and just tend to press forward looking to land power shots (making them easy to counter for a striker with speed and excellent timing like Aldo). Or he's faced opponents that have wanted to push forward and try and use their perceived wrestling and size advantage such as Florian and Mendes. In the past Florian has used an elusive style in some fights such as the Huerta one where he picked him apart for three rounds and tried to use an elusive in-and-out style but failed miserably against BJ Penn, but against Aldo his strategy was to use size advantage and improved wrestling to wear Aldo out against the cage and take him down. Perhaps if he'd ignored that plan and used the strategy he had against Penn we might have a better idea of how well Aldo deals with an opponent who is constantly circling, cutting angles, and moving in and out of range - implementing more of a point-scoring style if you like. Obviously this is all based on the assumption that Edgar will continue to have the same style, but we shouldn't forget that he does have some power when he wants to - did finish Maynard after all and obviously at a smaller weight division this will be more palpable. He might change his style completely for this fight and try and push the pace and grind on Aldo and wear him down so that he can take over with his superior cardio in later rounds.

This is true, but Aldo is pretty damn quick. Much quicker than Gray and Bendo who between them encompass Edgar's last 4 fights, bearing in mind also how many times Gray tagged Edgar with that uppercut in both fights. It's by no means a foregone conclusion, but I just don't see Edgar winning - he seemed gassed and tentative later in his first fight against Bendo due to the damage he took, and at the very least I can't see Aldo not landing a good few hard shots.

[Beelzebubzy]

Nice breakdown
just to play devils advocate
Jose is the strongest puncher that edga has had to face maybe with the exception of bj
howver one could argue that bj has slowed down/ age/ didn't train
nevertheless Edgar has taken a beating his past several fights where he is getting caught with shots. Either his movement, timing is being figured out or his striking defense is poor
with that said I like aldo, his riddle has not been solved and Edgar won't have a size advantage here.
In addition, Jose prefers to counter and Edgar's movement will leave openings.

Plus Edgar was hit with several leg kicks by benson in rd 1 of the second fight.
I maxed the -175 line. Line should be around -200 -225 IMO. This is the last time you will ever get aldo at this line unless Edgar finds his chin

[AdamB]

Nice breakdown
just to play devils advocate
Jose is the strongest puncher that edga has had to face maybe with the exception of bj
howver one could argue that bj has slowed down/ age/ didn't train
nevertheless Edgar has taken a beating his past several fights where he is getting caught with shots. Either his movement, timing is being figured out or his striking defense is poor
with that said I like aldo, his riddle has not been solved and Edgar won't have a size advantage here.
In addition, Jose prefers to counter and Edgar's movement will leave openings.

Plus Edgar was hit with several leg kicks by benson in rd 1 of the second fight.
I maxed the -175 line. Line should be around -200 -225 IMO. This is the last time you will ever get aldo at this line unless Edgar finds his chin

I have Aldo, plus the parlay I mentioned above - I will definitely get on Aldo ITD if it's evens or better. I assume there's no prop lines out for this fight yet?