[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 2:00 pm ET
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev (for lightweight title)
Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw (for bantamweight title)
Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot

ESPN+ 10:00 am EST
Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad
Caio Borralho vs. Makhmud Muradov
Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon
Lucas Almeida vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Magomed Mustafaev vs. Yamato Nishikawa
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Armen Petrosyan vs. A.J. Dobson
Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg

[JC2008]

Magomed Mustafaev vs. Yamato Nishikawa cancelled.

[JIBBBY]

Locky you're back!!! Thanks for the UFC thread start.

I was about done trying to do what you do. I thought you were dead and or done or something.

[GunShard]

Charles Oliveira is always a live dog.

[Demonata]

I'm probably taking Oliveira. Feel this fight is 50 50. Also might take o mally

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Charles Oliveira is always a live dog.

Yeah, he is an auto play for me at those odds...if he loses, so be it

Islam has not faced the quality of opponents that Charles has...

[magpie878]

Very very very much looking forward to this main card

[agendaman]

wow dillashaw is still around.

[Brandt Moat]

1st bet out of the gate will be on Borralho(young STUD!) @ (-200) for 1k to win $500. Next I'm betting $50 on rounds 1-3 that Belal Muhammad will Sub or KO, TKO or DQ (So a $300 bet) . I have bet on Belal and Sean for a few years now. Sean is stepping up in class. Brady has tired a bit in some of his fights. Belal will set a pace and keep it coming for 3 rounds. Belal's tank is 2nd to none. Muhammad is "NOT" a finisher! This is a gut bet! Betting Sean will be behind on the cards and Muhammad will be in control on the mat and Sean will make a desperate move to get position and Belal will take advantage of that and finish him. The KO, TKO or DQ pays +2200(Rd.1), +2800(Rd.2), +3500(Rd.3). The Sub pays $3000(Rd.1), $4000(Rd.2), $5000(Rd.3). I think a late Sub is more probable. Dariush by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+700) same fight ANY fighter by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+275) $100 on each. The rest of the main I will be drunk and betting small. Some tough fights to predict. I hate O'Malley. I'm thinking the annoying fook has a chance! The main is a mystery. Won't touch it. Hope Charles gives him an azz whipn. GL

[magpie878]

"Muhammad is not a finisher" may be the truest statement ever on this board. Even with huge odds, at this stage of his career, I would never even put a flier on him finishing. Feels like wasted money. However, good luck on yours, hope you hit. I have nothing on that match yet.

I'd love Oliveria to win. Great fight either way. Whatever the odds are to not go the distance, I think that's highly probable. Charles doesn't fight to win on points.

This is damn near the biggest card in awhile and it's pretty much a ghost town here.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups!






155 lbs.: Magomed Mustafaev vs. Yamato Nishikawa

About 2.5 years after suffering a submission loss to Kevin Lee, Magomed Mustafaev (14-4) announced his return with a vicious knockout of Rafael Fiziev. He then took on rising Kiwi, Brad Riddell, who took over down the stretch to claim a split decision win.
This marks his first fight in 32 months and just his third since 2016.
Yamato Nishikawa (21-3-6) — who debuted professionally at age 13 — enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a 14-fight win streak. Much of his success came under the Shooto banner, where he claimed its Lightweight title in 2021.
He steps in for the injured Jamie Mullarkey on just under one month’s notice, having last fought on Sept. 19, 2022.
I really hope that Nishikawa has a long and prosperous UFC career. He’s pure entertainment in the cage, a violent and irrepressible young man with a truly admirable dedication to hurting people. He’s got a real shot at the upset, too, because Mustafaev faded badly against Riddell, and Nishikawa can rack up attrition at an alarming rate.
If it gets past the first round, it’s his fight to lose. That’s a massive “if,” though.
Mustafaev hits like a truck and Nishikawa’s striking defense is his biggest weakness. While Nishikawa does have some grappling chops in his back pocket, his willingness to trade makes him too vulnerable a target for even a rusty Mustafaev, who’ll level him within the first few minutes.
Prediction: Mustafaev via first round technical knockout
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170 lbs.: Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The Octagon debut of Abubakar Nurmagomedov (16-3-1) didn’t quite pan out for him, suffering a submission loss to heavy underdog David Zawada. He finally got into the UFC win column 16 months later by out-classing Jared Gooden at UFC 260.
Saturday’s bout ends a nearly 19-month layoff.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-1) earned his UFC contract with a vicious kneebar finish of Jansey Silva on Contender Series. This set up a UFC debut against Caio Borralho, which saw Omargadzhiev fall apart after suffering early damage and drop a technical decision.
His professional finishes are split 8/3 between knockouts and submissions.
There are valid reasons to believe that the Omargadzhiev who enters the cage this Saturday will be superior to and more successful than the one who faced Borralho. He seemed significantly out-muscled by the Brazilian, so the drop in weight should work out, and he has the edge in stopping power.
I just can’t get over the way he collapsed in that fight. After getting out-worked on the ground and hurt on the feet, his stand up devolved to the point where he took himself off his feet with haymakers. Between Nurmagomedov’s own wrestling prowess and the sharp counter-striking he showed against Gooden, he’s got the tools to recreate those efforts, and I don’t trust Omargadzhiev to respond properly this time. Nurmagomedov picks him off with jabs and counters, mixing in the occasional takedown to seal the deal on a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Armen Petrosyan vs. A.J. Dobson

Armen Petrosyan (7-2) followed his Contender Series knockout of Kaloyan Kolev with a narrow split decision over Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut. He faced another Contender Series veteran in his sophomore effort, a unanimous decision loss to Caio Borralho.
All but one of his pro wins have come by knockout.
A.J. Dobson (6-1) saved a Contender Series episode devoid of finishes by choking out Hashem Arkhagha. This set up a UFC debut against Jacob Malkoun, who utilized relentless wrestling to hand Dobson his first professional defeat.
He’ll enjoy a five-inch reach advantage despite being shorter by two inches.
Even though he couldn’t keep up with Malkoun’s exhausting takedown onslaught, Dobson’s improvement between his Contender Series bout and that UFC debut was eye-catching. If we see a similar level of advancement here, Petrosyan is in trouble. Dobson is at least sharp and physical enough to recreate the success Rodrigues had in forcing Petrosyan to the cage and landing combinations, and his wrestling pedigree suggests that he can neutralize Petrosyan on the ground the way Borralho did.
That’s all speculative, of course, but I liked what I saw of Dobson enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. In short, pressure and takedowns shut down Petrosyan’s kicking attack and earn Dobson his first UFC win.
Prediction: Dobson via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

Muhammad Mokaev (8-0) entered UFC with tons of hype behind him, which he lived up to by clubbing-and-subbing Cody Durden in 58 seconds. Though he failed to find the finish or generate much excitement in his second effort, he nonetheless walked away with a decision win over Charles Johnson.
He gives up an inch of reach to Malcolm “X.”
Malcom Gordon (14-5) — a former TKO champion — struggled his way to a winless (0-2) UFC start, both losses coming inside the distance. He’s since bounced back with a decision over Francisco Figueiredo and an arm-breaking submission of Denys Bondar.
The win over Bondar marked his sixth by tapout.
Outside of a freak one-hitter quitter, the only way Gordon wins this is by catching Mokaev in a submission either mid-transition or from his back. To his credit, he has plenty of experience doing so, from his pre-UFC finishes to that violent armbar against Bondar. Indeed, if Mokaev doesn’t mind his P’s and Q’s, Gordon has the skill and wherewithal to capitalize.
That said, Mokaev proved plenty willing to play the slow game against Johnson, and Gordon got overwhelmed on the mat by Amir Albazi a few fights back. Mokaev is seasoned enough to abuse his wrestling skills, avoid opportunistic submissions, and neutralize Gordon for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Mokaev via unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg

The high-volume striking attack of Karol Rosa (15-4) carried her to a perfect (4-0) UFC start, including a decision over Bethe Correia in “Pitbull’s” farewell fight. Then came Sara McMann, who out-wrestled the Brazilian to snap her six-fight win streak.
She stands two inches shorter than Lina Lansberg (10-6), but boasts a two-inch reach advantage
Now six years removed from her UFC debut against Cris Cyborg, Lansberg sits at 4-5 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) organization. She enters the cage in the midst of a two-fight losing streak that’s seen her drop decisions to Sara McMann and Pannie Kianzad.
She’s knocked out four opponents as a professional.
There doesn’t seem to be a lot going Lansberg’s way in this match up. Not only is Rosa 13 years younger, she lands more than twice as many significant strikes per minute and has the technical kickboxing chops to keep up with her on the feet. Though Lansberg’s wrestling has bailed her out before, she’s nowhere near the level of Sara McMann, and Rosa’s shown off some takedown chops of her own.
Lansberg can’t keep up with Rosa’s pace and doesn’t have the means to slow things down, giving her vanishingly few ways to win this. In the end, Rosa handily out-works her to a clear decision.
Prediction: Rosa via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady

Belal Muhammad (21-3) bounced back from a 1-2 UFC start to win four straight, only to run afoul of Geoff Neal at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. He now finds himself in the midst of an eight-fight unbeaten streak, most recently avenging the sole knockout loss of his career with a decision over Vicente Luque.
“Remember the Name” stands one inch taller than Sean Brady (15-0) at 5’10.”
Eight months after knocking out Taj Abdul-Hakim in the second defense of his Cage Fury title, Brady got called up to the Octagon, where he defeated Court McGee in his debut. He’s been similarly successful in four subsequent fights, among them an arm-triangle choke finish of Jake Matthews.
His seven finishes include four by submission.
The big question mark here is Brady’s gas tank. While Muhammad has the better overall resume, Brady’s more proven against high-level wrestlers, having out-dueled Matthews and Michael Chiesa in their wheelhouses. When both men are fresh, I trust Brady to hold his own in the sorts of grinding, close-quarters slogs that are Muhammad’s bread and butter.
Brady definitely faded late against Chiesa, however, and Muhammad’s gas tank is his best weapon. If Brady enters the cage in similar condition, Muhammad has the pace to wear him out and take over before Brady can bank two rounds. While acknowledging that I constantly underestimate Muhammad, though, I’m leaning toward Brady, who’s done well in high-pace wars of attrition before. In the end, he racks up enough top control to sway the judges.
Prediction: Brady via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho

Makhmud Muradov (25-7) ended a year-long layoff by knocking out Andrew Sanchez with a flying knee to secure his second consecutive post-fight bonus. He looked poised to make it 4-0 in the Octagon against Gerald Meerschaert, but succumbed to one of “GM3’s” signature comeback submissions.
“Mach” fights for the first time in nearly 14 months.
After earning his second Contender Series victory in three weeks, Caio Borralho (12-1) kicked off his UFC career with a dominant technical decision over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. His subsequent bout with Armen Petrosyan wasn’t quite as thrilling, but he still emerged victorious thanks to a persistent wrestling attack.
He’s ended seven professional fights inside the distance, four by knockout.
Is there a word for, “is going to lose, but not as badly as the oddsmakers think?” Muradov’s constant movement and four-inch height advantage could be a real problem for Borralho, who does his best work in close. “Mach’s” power and takedown defense are nothing, either, and we saw Borralho struggle to impress against another mobile kicker in Petrosyan.
That said, Meerschaert’s ability to force Muradov to the fence through sheer damn-the-torpedoes relentlessness was a bad look for the Uzbek, especially since Borralho’s a better takedown artist than “GM3.” Even if Muradov does manage to play keep-away in the early going, it’ll only get harder as the fight progresses and Borralho starts racking up damage on the ground. In short, “The Natural” finds his neck or pounds him out in the latter half of the fight.
Prediction: Borralho via second round technical knockout
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205 lbs.: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Nikita Krylov

The perfect (3-0) UFC start for Volkan Oezdemir (18-6) gave way to a 2-5 skid that saw him suffer stoppage losses to Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Jiri Prochazka along the way. He last saw action in July 2022, when he snapped a two-fight skid by out-working Paul Craig in a stinker.
“No Time” faces a one-inch height disadvantage and a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Two years after his sudden exit from the Octagon, Nikita Krylov (28-9) made his return in Sept. 2018, only to lose four of his next six bouts. With his back against the wall, “The Miner” scored arguably the biggest win of his career by smashing Alexander Gustafsson in just 67 seconds.
His 27 stoppage wins include 15 by submission.
Even in defeat, you can always trust Krylov to give it everything he’s got. The fights he loses are never because of lack of effort. The same can’t be said of Oezdemir, who hasn’t turned in a truly eye-catching performance in years. On top of that, Krylov is the more durable of the two, and Oezdemir doesn’t have the wrestling prowess to shut down “The Miner” like Glover Teixeira or Magomed Ankalaev.
Oezdemir has given good strikers plenty of trouble before, but Krylov’s sheer horsepower seems like more than he can handle at this point in his career. When the dust settles, Krylov overwhelms him for a quick finish.
Prediction: Krylov via first round technical knockout
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145 lbs.: Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Lucas Almeida

Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) kicked off his UFC career by winning three straight, including a wide decision over then-unbeaten Douglas Silva de Andrade. He’s since gone 2-2-1, fighting just five times in more than five years.
He gives up three inches of height and reach to Lucas Almeida (14-1).
Though he beat the stuffing out of Daniel Zellhuber in the first round of their Contender Series clash, Almeida’s inability to maintain his pace led to his first career defeat. After returning to Brazil to defend his Jungle Fight title, Almeida got his shot in the Octagon, knocking out Mike Trizano to take home “Fight of the Night” honors.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, nine of them by knockout.
I was initially going to call an Almeida upset, as Tukhugov’s inconsistency and history of late-round collapses loom large whenever I think of him. After rewatching parts of his most recent win over Ricardo Ramos, however, I’ve flip-flopped. His counter punching looked razor-sharp, and Almeida showed a vulnerability to getting caught coming in when he warred with Trizano. That’s not even mentioning his wrestling attack, which should further open up his striking and give him a means to slow things down if Almeida starts building momentum.
Not saying Almeida doesn’t have a reasonable chance of weathering Tukhugov’s early explosion to take over down the stretch, but he’ll have to wade through a whole hell of a lot of fire to do so. Long story short, Tukhugov clips him with an early counter and pours it on for a decisive finish.
Prediction: Tukhugov via first round technical knockout

[JAKEPEAVY21]

1st bet out of the gate will be on Borralho(young STUD!) @ (-200) for 1k to win $500. Next I'm betting $50 on rounds 1-3 that Belal Muhammad will Sub or KO, TKO or DQ (So a $300 bet) . I have bet on Belal and Sean for a few years now. Sean is stepping up in class. Brady has tired a bit in some of his fights. Belal will set a pace and keep it coming for 3 rounds. Belal's tank is 2nd to none. Muhammad is "NOT" a finisher! This is a gut bet! Betting Sean will be behind on the cards and Muhammad will be in control on the mat and Sean will make a desperate move to get position and Belal will take advantage of that and finish him. The KO, TKO or DQ pays +2200(Rd.1), +2800(Rd.2), +3500(Rd.3). The Sub pays $3000(Rd.1), $4000(Rd.2), $5000(Rd.3). I think a late Sub is more probable. Dariush by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+700) same fight ANY fighter by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+275) $100 on each. The rest of the main I will be drunk and betting small. Some tough fights to predict. I hate O'Malley. I'm thinking the annoying fook has a chance! The main is a mystery. Won't touch it. Hope Charles gives him an azz whipn. GL

I like Brady in that fight.

[JC2008]

1st bet out of the gate will be on Borralho(young STUD!) @ (-200) for 1k to win $500. Next I'm betting $50 on rounds 1-3 that Belal Muhammad will Sub or KO, TKO or DQ (So a $300 bet) . I have bet on Belal and Sean for a few years now. Sean is stepping up in class. Brady has tired a bit in some of his fights. Belal will set a pace and keep it coming for 3 rounds. Belal's tank is 2nd to none. Muhammad is "NOT" a finisher! This is a gut bet! Betting Sean will be behind on the cards and Muhammad will be in control on the mat and Sean will make a desperate move to get position and Belal will take advantage of that and finish him. The KO, TKO or DQ pays +2200(Rd.1), +2800(Rd.2), +3500(Rd.3). The Sub pays $3000(Rd.1), $4000(Rd.2), $5000(Rd.3). I think a late Sub is more probable. Dariush by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+700) same fight ANY fighter by KO, TKO or DQ @ (+275) $100 on each. The rest of the main I will be drunk and betting small. Some tough fights to predict. I hate O'Malley. I'm thinking the annoying fook has a chance! The main is a mystery. Won't touch it. Hope Charles gives him an azz whipn. GL

Brady got tired but he had nasal surgery I believe to address an issue that was affecting his breathing. GL on your bets!

[GunShard]

[Brandt Moat]

My heart is with Brady! I don't like Belal. He has a boring style. If Herb Dean is ref it will favor Belal. Herb will let them hump each other dry. Made a good amount on both these guys. It was a tough decision. Just think he will get his neck. The nasal surgery gives me some concern. It is a $300 total wager amount. I have lost more on less of a chance. Let's GO!!

[Kermit]

Charles is +135 to win but only +160 to finish the fight.

Sub prop at +290 looks like the best play on him.

[povis]

Bit surprised that odds improving on TJ and Dariush, i wonder if it's better to take Islam itd. Olivera can 100% deck him early if Islam survives first two rounds he's probably going to grind him out for late finish. TJ and Dariush both are technical gritty dogs and you better bring your A game otherwise it's night night for you.

[Thor4140]

Brady got tired but he had nasal surgery I believe to address an issue that was affecting his breathing. GL on your bets!

He had a terrible staph infection in his ankle i believe if it wasn't for his wife a nurse, this could have been career threatening. Let me tell you guys why Brady is so good. The fuker has the strength of a gorilla. That is what is known about him in the gym. This is insane but he went to a grappling tournament and beat Craig Jones. Brady is the type of guy that if you have the choke on him he can easily just rip your arm off of his neck. I don't even think Brady wrestled in high School. Anything can happen in MMA but i dont see Brady losing this fight. If his last fight against Cheisa went five ,i think he loses but when you spend two weeks in the hospital i believe gassing is a possibility to happen.

[Brandt Moat]

Thanks Thor! All the best to Brady. Said it awhile ago, I think he has championship qualities. I won't be pissed if Brady rips his face off in 1st round. Belal seems to be a bit too Muslim, if ya get what I mean. Can't wait for some real top level fights!GL

[KVB]

I just posted that trailer in another thread, then found this thread.

I never visit these sub forums I must be missing out.

Good Stuff fellas.

[JC2008]

Anyone like Rosa KO/TKO +400-500ish?

[Brandt Moat]

Sorry, quit getn involved in many of the chick fights. Got burnt by Miranda Maverick! She made me leery of their fight prep and desire. Seem as hard to figure out as when you are married to em!lol GL

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Love these early UFC cards!!

That lazy fukk Jibby will be in here whining about it shortly...

[JC2008]

Love these early UFC cards!!

That lazy fukk Jibby will be in here whining about it shortly...

Bwahahaha. JIBBBY ---- > Dog ITD theory in effect today?

[hankcream]

1 Screwdriver down so far, this should be an awesome card but tough to bet on. The only one I’m confident in is Brady over Belal. If it goes to the ground, Brady is on a whole different level than Belal & almost every other welterweight.

$1350 Brady -135
$510 Sterling -170
$115 Dobson +175
$800 Mokaev ITD -200

GL Gents

[Thor4140]

Thanks Thor! All the best to Brady. Said it awhile ago, I think he has championship qualities. I won't be pissed if Brady rips his face off in 1st round. Belal seems to be a bit too Muslim, if ya get what I mean. Can't wait for some real top level fights!GL

Brady tends to get clipped and if he is stunned anything can happen but i rather stay on his streak i just wish they had a better boxing coach in their camp. Brady has nice hands but his movement worries me some where he tends to get clipped. when your stunned you can be a jujitz multi world champion it doesn't matter you are getting subbed

[Thor4140]

I liked Makhachev in the final. I love Da Bronx but he wont have that cushion he had with Porier and Justin. I remember Khabib used to wear a shit that said "If Sambo was easy they would call it Jujitsu. These guys just know how to deal with this stuff. Charles has to beat him on the feet or he is going to get overwhelmed and probably sliced up. As for sugar Sean i think he has a real chance because this is a three round fight. Five i wouldn't think so at all. Here is my problem with Sugar. Those odds. It is begging you to take Sugar so to me close rounds all go to Yan. Just how the betting world rolls. It is early tho and the odds have come down.

[Thor4140]

Cejudo just said the same thing i did about the Yan Sugar fight and the difference between a three and five round fight

Petr Yan by KO/TKO/DQ (+265) over Sean O'Malley is EASY MONEY ��

I'm not allowed to make the bet, but you can @betonline_ag! #UFC280

FULL PREVIEW of UFC 280 on the latest edition of "Bet Like a GOAT" ��: https://t.co/Vg9c4RHMd5 pic.twitter.com/nQ0cUVumxc

— Henry Cejudo (@HenryCejudo) October 21, 2022

[GunShard]

When fighters are equally matched the fight goes to a decision. Maybe I am crazy to think Makhachev by Points +420 or Oliveira by Points +1400 could happen.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Mokaev looking fairly lackluster as such a massive favorite...

[hankcream]

Brady is winning this fight but if it goes to decision he's going to get screwed by the judges

[Kermit]

I can't believe that Brady just got finished.

[Allure]

Yes belalllllllll

[Ghenghis Kahn]

That was an early stoppage

[Allure]

Early stoppage lol
That inbred Brady was a barely standing punching bag
LOVE IT